What it will take for cruising to resume

[srdancer]

I would wait until there's an effective vaccine. However, not everyone gets flu shots so maybe some would not get this vaccine either. My fear would be someone who didn't get the shot gets sick. While I might not catch it, would not like to be on a quarantined ship floating around the ocean indefinitely with no chance/place to disembark. 

[firefly333]

I keep reading that a vaccine is the game changer. Isnt the current flu vaccine about 46% effective and that's better than last years.

 

This virus is here to stay, there will be cases going forward. Does that mean we never cruise again?

 

No vaccine will be 100% effective. 

 

I was hoping to go down before my jan 2nd cruise and stay on the beach a day or two, not run around trying to get tested.

[danv3]

5 minutes ago, srdancer said:

I would wait until there's an effective vaccine. However, not everyone gets flu shots so maybe some would not get this vaccine either. My fear would be someone who didn't get the shot gets sick. While I might not catch it, would not like to be on a quarantined ship floating around the ocean indefinitely with no chance/place to disembark. 

 

Who knows if there will ever be an effective vaccine.  We don't have one for HIV and we've been working on that for 40 years.  Even with the flu vaccine it's about 50% effective and has to be re-done every year.  Hopefully they'll be more successful here, but there are no guarantees...

 

(posted at almost the exact same time as the one above me.  Great minds!)

Edited April 3, 2020 by danv3

[Junkhouse]

33 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

That is so not true.  The CDC estimates that there have been 24,000 – 63,000 deaths from the flu during the current flu season.  There have been about 58,000 deaths from Covid-19 so far, increasing by at least 5000 per day.

Where are you getting your numbers from?  You are using the US flu numbers but comparing it to the world wide Covid-19 numbers. Here are the real numbers for the flu.

 

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Edited April 3, 2020 by Junkhouse

[teaysvalley]

45 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

That is so not true.  The CDC estimates that there have been 24,000 – 63,000 deaths from the flu during the current flu season.  There have been about 58,000 deaths from Covid-19 so far, increasing by at least 5000 per day.

You're using the world numbers for deaths due to Covid-19 when comparing to US flu deaths.  The US currently has 5,900 Covid-19 related deaths.  That's still way less than the flu in the US, but it could eventually equal flu deaths in the US before it's all over.

[bobmacliberty]

I don't think #2 (flights in/out of the country) would be a requirement, at least in the US.  They would just need to have enough people to fill a ship to a minimum level.  I think having an effective treatment (not a vaccine) may be needed as well.

[Iamcruzin]

The problem with #3 is that even if you test negative 24 hours before you can still get the virus in transit to the departure port via air travel and it won't present itself for 14 days. They are now telling New Yorkers to wear some type of home made mask such as a scarf or bandana when going to the store. It won't protect you from getting covid but if you are contagious you won't spread it to others. They are talking about making it mandatory in NYC. 

 

As this continues to develop each day,  I feel that cruising is a long way from starting up again. If  I had a cruise that was canceled I would be taking the money. Those FCC's have an expiration date and the longer this goes on the harder it's going to be to use them especially if you have to work and plan your time off.

[zekekelso]

Free Beer!*

 

* to be fair, I don't actually think free beer is necessary. I'm just putting the idea out there on the hopes it catches on. 

[grandgeezer]

I don't know how accurate it is, but on msn.com somebody reported that the CDC was working on the same question. If what I read is accurate, the guidelines are pretty tough, though they should be. Bottom line is, if the instituted right away, the earliest anything would even be considered is the start of May, and it probably would address social spacing and returning to work.

It also mentions reevaluating every four weeks and making changes if necessary. This is just talk, for now.

[WeLuvVacation]

30 minutes ago, zekekelso said:

Free Beer!*

 

* to be fair, I don't actually think free beer is necessary. I'm just putting the idea out there on the hopes it catches on. 

Free beer is ALWAYS welcome, especially if it is accompanied by a shot of a fine whiskey!

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, irzero said:

There are 5 minute tests for infection and immunity being made now. 17.5 million ordered for UK. Once immune then you are fine to do what you want. No reason this cant be done before a cruise. Cert of immunity or immunity wrist band.

 

Problem is though if you are not immune you would need to be tested often. This would be no different though for staying in a hotel or going on a plane. You might find over the next few years being swabbed or pin ***** tested becomes common and tedious for the people who didnt get corona.

 

So all I have to do is make sure I get the virus so I'm immune to cruise?

 

Sign me up for the free beer above p,ease.

[Georgia_Peaches]

I'm neutral regarding self-serve in the buffet, mainly because we don't eat there.  My question would be, is there any evidence that Covid-19 is passed more readily in the self-serve buffet over other places on the ship?  Say elevator buttons, hand rails, public restrooms, etc.  Just seems like the buffet is getting a bad wrap in all this so I'm just curious.  A number of threads across many boards have banished self-serve buffets.  Is it because this virus makes it a convenient excuse to make them go away or is there real, hard evidence that they are linked to the spread more so than other things/venues?

[eel]

1 hour ago, Iamcruzin said:

The problem with #3 is that even if you test negative 24 hours before you can still get the virus in transit to the departure port via air travel and it won't present itself for 14 days. They are now telling New Yorkers to wear some type of home made mask such as a scarf or bandana when going to the store. It won't protect you from getting covid but if you are contagious you won't spread it to others. They are talking about making it mandatory in NYC. 

 

As this continues to develop each day,  I feel that cruising is a long way from starting up again. If  I had a cruise that was canceled I would be taking the money. Those FCC's have an expiration date and the longer this goes on the harder it's going to be to use them especially if you have to work and plan your time off.

 

You are right about getting the virus in transit.  That is why I believe the infection rate must be very low before starting cruises again.  Then the odds of getting the virus in transit would be very low.  And the temperature checks and on-board testing capability would help identify anyone that may get it.  Of course asymptomatic carriers would throw a monkey wrench into all that. This would help mitigate the risk but the bottom line is that low risk cruising wont be possible until we have a (good) vaccine and a significant amount of herd immunity. 

 

And, by the way, I took the refund option on my recently cancelled cruise even though I have 3 cruises booked in 2021.

 

Edited April 3, 2020 by eel

[eel]

20 minutes ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

I'm neutral regarding self-serve in the buffet, mainly because we don't eat there.  My question would be, is there any evidence that Covid-19 is passed more readily in the self-serve buffet over other places on the ship?  Say elevator buttons, hand rails, public restrooms, etc.  Just seems like the buffet is getting a bad wrap in all this so I'm just curious.  A number of threads across many boards have banished self-serve buffets.  Is it because this virus makes it a convenient excuse to make them go away or is there real, hard evidence that they are linked to the spread more so than other things/venues?

 

I agree that the buffet gets a bad rap but it is one of the few areas that they can mitigate directly.  I have already seen the cruise staff constantly cleaning railings, elevator buttons, bathrooms  and other high touch areas.  They can only do what they can do. Nothing is foolproof.

[danv3]

2 hours ago, irzero said:

There are 5 minute tests for infection and immunity being made now. 17.5 million ordered for UK. Once immune then you are fine to do what you want. No reason this cant be done before a cruise. Cert of immunity or immunity wrist band.

 

Problem is though if you are not immune you would need to be tested often. This would be no different though for staying in a hotel or going on a plane. You might find over the next few years being swabbed or pin ***** tested becomes common and tedious for the people who didnt get corona.

 

 

How long does post-infection immunity last?  AFAIK, we have no idea.

[TravelerThom]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

No vaccine will be 100% effective. 

Yet somehow smallpox was eradicated....

 

However I acknowledge that took many years of effort. 

[Hobby3333]

3 hours ago, Junkhouse said:

When the press and public realize that more people die from the common flu then this virus, and that most of the deaths hit people that are diabetic or have a BMI of over 30.

Never mind 

[zekekelso]

One of the big issues is whether "getting rid of" Covid-19 (whatever that means) is good enough. Or are customers and even government going to insist cruise lines put in procedures to prevent the next virus from infecting a cruise. 

[B-52]

3 hours ago, Junkhouse said:

When the press and public realize that more people die from the common flu then this virus, and that most of the deaths hit people that are diabetic or have a BMI of over 30.

 

I want to believe this is no different than the common flu....
But come to NY/NJ where I live...this is not like anything that has happened before.
Hospitals full to capacity, temporary hospitals being set up in parks, convention centers, and now hotels.
Volunteers coming in from out of state.

Military involvement.

 

This IS NOT like the common Flu....and it is getting worse everyday.  People, other than those who are elderly and in top health are being hospitalized, and dying.
Scary thing is no one knows what to expect how this is going to play out, and for how long.

There are predictions, and many say the 2nd wave will hit with next flu season just when we get a handle on the current crisis.

I am a essential health care provider.....everyday I leave the house is playing Russian roulette.

 

We are Diamond Plus...I come to these boards to get a pulse on what everyone is feeling....We have a cruise booked, going to cancel before final payment and forget about cruising for a while.

 

[TravelerThom]

47 minutes ago, danv3 said:

How long does post-infection immunity last?  AFAIK, we have no idea.

My understanding (I am not an immunologist) is that you have essentially lifetime immunity to the particular strain of the virus you were exposed to. BUT viruses mutate (their are already several different strains of COVID-19 that have been detected), and the more it mutates the less immunity you have. If influenza did not mutate there would be no need for a new shot (the 2019 flu shot was not the same as 2018, which was not the same as 2017....) every year. 

Some more information on COVID-19 development at:
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85604

Edited April 3, 2020 by TravelerThom

[smsiska4]

In my opinion, the only thing that will start cruising up again is data.

1. Each US State and Canadian Province hitting it's 'peak' death and hospitalization rates. New Jersey is very different than Idaho in terms of density and social interaction (intentional and non), so to go off a US-wide 'peak' is unrealistic. Each state/province needs to show a decrease in deaths and new cases.
2. Probability, amplitude, and timing of a 'second wave'. China will be the first datapoint, with likely Italy, Spain, and the NE US to follow. IMO, this is why it's imperative to soften some "social distancing" restrictions as soon as there is sufficient hospital capacity, to judge how much of the virus is still out in the "wild". In North America we have the benefit of this data being gathered while we are reaching the peaks described in #1.

Once these are figured out, plans to 'reopen' can begin. Cruises will likely resume after we have 45 days of so of relaxed social distancing orders locally - when things like bars, theaters, and gyms reopen, and that does not result in another near-exponential 'curve' in cases/deaths. High-risk individuals will likely be subject to more stringent orders for several months, which may include refusal to travel.

 

Personal responsibility is also a large factor. Hand washing/use of hand sanitizer, staying home when sick, resisting the urge to cough/sneeze, and keeping distance from others when possible will help, and it is something governments and industries will surely be watching

[firefox247]

There is no way most of these things are going to happen in the long term.  All of them involve manpower and/or keeping the ship (or ship's venues) much less full than they have been traditionally.  That means tons of revenue and profit down the drain when they need it most.  Keep in mind how resistant the industry was to shutting down to begin with.  You think they suddenly have had a come to Jesus moment and will stay off the ocean until they are sure COVID-19 is under control?  I doubt it.

 

As others have said, the cruise lines do not have that kind of time.  Ideally, they would wait until cases have dropped off to zero, then wait a couple weeks after that, then slowly start getting boats more and more full, but I don't see that happening.  Once the public health agencies soften their language on cruising, I fully expect cruising to start up again almost immediately.

 

Initially, I do think we will see some of the restrictions that they can easily implement like buffet rules, sanitation, temp checks, etc., but they aren't going to leave half the balconies empty or anything like that.  They want money.  They'll risk it.  And the moment COVID-19 is in the back mirror, all the new restrictions that cost them money will likely be gone.

Edited April 4, 2020 by firefox247

[time4u2go]

19 minutes ago, smsiska4 said:

In my opinion, the only thing that will start cruising up again is data.

1. Each US State and Canadian Province hitting it's 'peak' death and hospitalization rates. New Jersey is very different than Idaho in terms of density and social interaction (intentional and non), so to go off a US-wide 'peak' is unrealistic. Each state/province needs to show a decrease in deaths and new cases.
2. Probability, amplitude, and timing of a 'second wave'. China will be the first datapoint, with likely Italy, Spain, and the NE US to follow. IMO, this is why it's imperative to soften some "social distancing" restrictions as soon as there is sufficient hospital capacity, to judge how much of the virus is still out in the "wild". In North America we have the benefit of this data being gathered while we are reaching the peaks described in #1.

Once these are figured out, plans to 'reopen' can begin. Cruises will likely resume after we have 45 days of so of relaxed social distancing orders locally - when things like bars, theaters, and gyms reopen, and that does not result in another near-exponential 'curve' in cases/deaths. High-risk individuals will likely be subject to more stringent orders for several months, which may include refusal to travel.

 

Personal responsibility is also a large factor. Hand washing/use of hand sanitizer, staying home when sick, resisting the urge to cough/sneeze, and keeping distance from others when possible will help, and it is something governments and industries will surely be watching

There also has to be a willingness and ability for cruise destinations to be able to accept cruise ships.  

[time4u2go]

8 minutes ago, firefox247 said:

There is no way most of these things are going to happen in the long term.  All of them involve manpower and/or keeping the ship (or ship's venues) much less full than they have been traditionally.  That means tons of revenue and profit down the drain when they need it most.  Keep in mind how resistant the industry was to shutting down to begin with.  You think they suddenly have had a come to Jesus moment and will stay off the ocean until they are sure COVID-19 is under control?  I doubt it.

 

As others have said, the cruise lines do not have that kind of time.  Ideally, they would wait until cases have dropped off to zero, then wait a couple weeks after that, then slowly start getting boats more and more full, but I don't see that happening.  Once the public health agencies soften their language on cruising, I fully expect cruising to start up again almost immediately.  Initially, I do think we will see some of the restrictions that they can easily implement like buffet rules, sanitation, temp checks, etc., but they aren't going to leave half the balconies empty or anything like that.  They want money.  They'll risk it.

Where do you think these cruises will go?  There has to be destinations that are willing to accept them.

Edited April 4, 2020 by time4u2go

[firefox247]

1 minute ago, time4u2go said:

Where do you think these cruises will go?  There have to be destinations that are willing to accept them.

 

I suspect that itineraries will be modified when available and cancelled if they cannot find compatible ports.  I don't believe that Royal can possibly roll out their entire fleet with the number of ports that are closed, but I do not believe for a second that they are just going to sit on the sidelines and sit by until every port is open.  They'll sail every ship to CocoCay and Labadee if they have to.

 

Whatever it takes, I'm sure they will sail if at all possible.  I mean, just think about how long it took them to cancel up to May 12 when the writing was on the wall for forever.  Or how long it took them to modify itineraries to places (like Canada) that have closed to them.  Royal will sail if they can sail.  The destinations are secondary.