Abandon hope all ye who enter here:

[kwokpot]

5 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Can you try that again? 

Thanks, I fixed the original post.

[Fouremco]

3 minutes ago, kwokpot said:

Thanks, I fixed the original post.

That's better!  I always enjoy the Motley Fool, and the article certainly gives food for thought.

[TeeRick]

17 hours ago, BP99 said:

Hi,

The paper was important to show the level of mutations and the global migration of

the virus. It also provides more evidence that the virus originated in bats. However

whether these mutations affect vaccine development is too early to tell. I was more

excited about the use of passive immunization (also in PNAS). Preliminary results

in China https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004168117 show promise. Very preliminary studies 

reported in USA (reported in CNN) also show hope.  These preliminary results

indicate that humans can raise antibodies to the virus that can be used in others to eliminate the  virus and cure the patient. This indicates that a vaccine should work.

Other older data indicates that there are less mutations (changes) in coronavirus

than in influenza.

Even if they have a cocktail of COVID-19 types it wouldn't be a problem.

Many newer vaccines are a blend. I am not an expert in virology. However, in a previous life, I was a immunologist, molecular biologist, university full professor and involved

in vaccine development. I also published evolutionary papers including one in PNAS.

 

Thanks for your link to this interesting article.  It is just one of many coming out now so it is a preliminary piece to the puzzle - time will tell if it is a key piece or not for vaccine development. A mixture of vaccine components (ie, "cocktail" in your terminology) is used for influenza every year from the major circulating strains so that approach will be tried for sure for strains of SARS-CoV-2 if necessary.   There are mixtures of proteins from 4 viral strains in Gardasil (Merck) which is the vaccine for HPV(human papilloma virus) for cervical cancer prevention. There are many other examples.   There are also multi-component vaccines against multiple pathogens (ie, mixtures of vaccines in one shot).  Maybe someday if a SARS vaccine is effective it could be combined with the yearly influenza vaccine in one shot.  Nice to dream! 

[Sam.Seattle]

 

Interesting points...

 

At 10.3 minutes = Debt to Equity for RCL 96.5%

At  13.0 minutes = USA goverment disqualifies Cruise industry from bailout because:

             A) Not create or organized in USA or under USA Law.

             B) Does not have significant in and a majority of its employees based in the USA.  Carnival is     incorporated in Panama, 

                 Royal is Liberia and Norwegian is Bermuda. Thus paying little or no taxes to the USA.

At 31.4 minutes - Carnival security filing statement - We can not predict when any of our ships will sail again.

 

Just looking at the facts... Trying to separate the opinions.

 

So.... Will they file bankruptcy and what value will the Future Cruise Certificates really have?

 

[drakes2]

21 minutes ago, Sam.Seattle said:

 

Interesting points...

 

At 10.3 minutes = Debt to Equity for RCL 96.5%

At  13.0 minutes = USA goverment disqualifies Cruise industry from bailout because:

             A) Not create or organized in USA or under USA Law.

             B) Does not have significant in and a majority of its employees based in the USA.  Carnival is     incorporated in Panama, 

                 Royal is Liberia and Norwegian is Bermuda. Thus paying little or no taxes to the USA.

At 31.4 minutes - Carnival security filing statement - We can not predict when any of our ships will sail again.

 

Just looking at the facts... Trying to separate the opinions.

 

So.... Will they file bankruptcy and what value will the Future Cruise Certificates really have?

 

If they file bankruptcy FCC is worthless. Mine is only $125 CDN and if lost so be it. 

[zitsky]

Recently got a spam email from a "friend".  Says Corona is invented by the Chinese as a weapon against the rest of the world.

 

Sigh.

[iamtrustworthy]

On 4/8/2020 at 7:01 PM, Babr said:

No, trip insurance does not cover financial default of the carrier. If you are thinking about buying for that possibility, don’t. 

Hi Babr,

 

The plans I know best still do cover 3rd Party Supplier Financial Default. What most people don’t know or understand is that the Financial Default coverage is for the 3rd party. If you book a cruise directly with the cruise line, you are not covered for Supplier Financial Default because there is no intermediary to be the 2nd party. If you booked with a travel agent who, in turn, made your cruise’s travel arrangements, the travel agent is the 2nd party and the cruise line is the 3rd party.

 

“Supplier Financial Default” is a complete suspension of operations due to financial circumstances whether or not a bankruptcy petition is filed. In other words, just the act of filing for bankruptcy or becoming bankrupt doesn’t necessarily qualify as a valid Financial Default claim. The 3rd Party (not who you booked directly with) travel supplier has to completely cease operations.

 

Important: Supplier Financial Default does not cover where you arrange / book your travel. For example, if you use a travel agency and it goes out of business. Ideally, the travel agency uses an escrow account to store its clients’ funds while the money’s in their possession. You are not covered for Financial Default for money the travel agency hadn’t paid to the travel suppliers.

 

I hope this makes sense.

Steve Dasseos

[Babr]

33 minutes ago, iamtrustworthy said:

Hi Babr,

 

The plans I know best still do cover 3rd Party Supplier Financial Default. What most people don’t know or understand is that the Financial Default coverage is for the 3rd party. If you book a cruise directly with the cruise line, you are not covered for Supplier Financial Default because there is no intermediary to be the 2nd party. If you booked with a travel agent who, in turn, made your cruise’s travel arrangements, the travel agent is the 2nd party and the cruise line is the 3rd party.

 

“Supplier Financial Default” is a complete suspension of operations due to financial circumstances whether or not a bankruptcy petition is filed. In other words, just the act of filing for bankruptcy or becoming bankrupt doesn’t necessarily qualify as a valid Financial Default claim. The 3rd Party (not who you booked directly with) travel supplier has to completely cease operations.

 

Important: Supplier Financial Default does not cover where you arrange / book your travel. For example, if you use a travel agency and it goes out of business. Ideally, the travel agency uses an escrow account to store its clients’ funds while the money’s in their possession. You are not covered for Financial Default for money the travel agency hadn’t paid to the travel suppliers.

 

I hope this makes sense.

Steve Dasseos

 

Thanks for the explanation. Let me see if I got it.

 

If someone booked directly with Celebrity,  supplier default would not be covered because the cruise line is not third party.
 

But if someone booked with a travel agent, then the cruise line becomes third party, and supplier default would be covered if the cruise line ceased operations completely, not just some kind of financial restructuring that allowed them to resume some time after this imposed shut down.

 

If the travel agent ceases operations, then you are not covered by supplier default because they were second party. The only hope is that your money was set aside and protected before they went out of business.

 

Is this true of all policies? An industry-wide practice based on the legal definition of third-party supplier? I can’t say that I’ve always seen it defined that way. I thought I had seen just the terms ”financial default of the supplier.”

 

Yikes! It’s awfully hard to protect yourself, even when you try.

 

[nich3cats]

When a down payment is made on a cruise booked by a travel agent does the money go to the cruise line or the travel agency? Will probably be cancelling a transatlantic cruise on the summit before final payment on May 18. Hoping to get my $900 refundable deposit back. 

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, nich3cats said:

When a down payment is made on a cruise booked by a travel agent does the money go to the cruise line or the travel agency? Will probably be cancelling a transatlantic cruise on the summit before final payment on May 18. Hoping to get my $900 refundable deposit back. 

Cruise line.

[BigAl94]

Worth a read re the future https://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/could-a-reborn-cruise-industry-be-a-better-environmental-steward-20200409-p54iqo.html

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, zitsky said:

Recently got a spam email from a "friend".  Says Corona is invented by the Chinese as a weapon against the rest of the world.

 

Sigh.

Sigh is right!  This theory has been very thoroughly debunked by the genetic sequencing information as well as a lot of other solid evidence.  And why would China do this to its own population? But there will always be conspiracy theories out there.  Otherwise rational people give them credence too. 

[iamtrustworthy]

21 hours ago, Babr said:

 

Thanks for the explanation. Let me see if I got it.

 

If someone booked directly with Celebrity,  supplier default would not be covered because the cruise line is not third party.
 

But if someone booked with a travel agent, then the cruise line becomes third party, and supplier default would be covered if the cruise line ceased operations completely, not just some kind of financial restructuring that allowed them to resume some time after this imposed shut down.

 

If the travel agent ceases operations, then you are not covered by supplier default because they were second party. The only hope is that your money was set aside and protected before they went out of business.

 

Is this true of all policies? An industry-wide practice based on the legal definition of third-party supplier? I can’t say that I’ve always seen it defined that way. I thought I had seen just the terms ”financial default of the supplier.”

 

Yikes! It’s awfully hard to protect yourself, even when you try.

 

Hi Babr,

 

Yes, you got it.

 

> Is this true of all policies? An industry-wide practice based on the legal definition of third-party supplier? I can’t say that I’ve always seen it defined that way. I thought I had seen just the terms ”financial default of the supplier.”

 

You may have a hard time finding a travel insurance website that makes it very clear that the Supplier Financial Default does not cover where you arrange / book your travel. Nearly all of them leave out the "3rd party" wording.

 

> Is this true of all policies?

 

It is for all the companies I know. There might be some companies that don't define it this way.

 

I hope this helps you.

 

Steve Dasseos

 

[Babr]

Thanks, Steve. I’ve learned a lot from your answers. I’m sure others here feel the same way. We all appreciate that you take the time to answer in such detail.

[Pennstateman]

On 4/3/2020 at 12:26 PM, Argo. said:

Optimists beware.  Take off your rose colored glasses.  Let's look at some facts.  This is not a feel good thread.

I want to connect with all the pessimists out there who also think that the cruise industry is about to have a fundamental shift in attracting discretionary spending and achieving profitability.

1. Look at the stock price.  Put your money where your mouth is.  Are you buying stock in the industry?
2. Look at your stock portfolio.  How much has it suffered this month?  Do you feel that you still have enough to indulge in cruising?
3. Have you lost your job?  Has your salary been cut?  Can you still afford that cruise you booked months ago?
4. Have you been on a ship with a confirmed Covid-19 case?  Have you been tested as a result?  (My wife has)
5. Do you know any of the passengers on a stricken ship such as Princess or HAL?  Would you trade places with them?
6. How many Celebrity ships have had a crew member or passenger tested positive?  (and one death on Infinity)
7. Do you think Celebrity has been honest with passengers and crew about active cases or incidents onboard?
8. Are you happy with an FCC when you can't get a doctor's certificate because you are over 70 and you have health issues?
9. Are you a Canadian who now has to pay 50% more for a cruise because Canadians depend on exporting oil to support the $.
10. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships?
11. Celebrity has consistently underestimated the severity of this pandemic in their tardiness in canceling cruises.  May 11th sailing.. in their wildest dreams.

 

People are poorer, people are scared, senior cruisers are dying, companies are bleeding cash.  How is this going to end well before the end of the year?

 

I was just about to reply to this post, but the sky just fell on me and I’m unable to write 

[jonthomas]

This post has convinced me that I am NO optimist. I agree with all the points and that is rare for me. 

So glad the Op put out this thread, where I can commiserate with others who are just like me and anyone who disagrees could just be told, HEY this is a topic for us who are NOT optimistic about this. 

[iamtrustworthy]

3 hours ago, Babr said:

Thanks, Steve. I’ve learned a lot from your answers. I’m sure others here feel the same way. We all appreciate that you take the time to answer in such detail.

You're welcome, Babr.

 

I appreciate the questions.

[zitsky]

2 hours ago, jonthomas said:

This post has convinced me that I am NO optimist. I agree with all the points and that is rare for me. 

So glad the Op put out this thread, where I can commiserate with others who are just like me and anyone who disagrees could just be told, HEY this is a topic for us who are NOT optimistic about this. 

 

That's the great thing about the internet.  You get to hear from all sides.

 

Here's a smiley for all you pessimists. ==>  🙂

[TeeRick]

There is no optimism or pessimism in a pandemic.  Only realism.

[zitsky]

24 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

There is no optimism or pessimism in a pandemic.  Only realism.

 

Whose realism?  Yours, mine, or theirs?

[TeeRick]

8 minutes ago, zitsky said:

 

Whose realism?  Yours, mine, or theirs?

Yes that is a realistic question!😉

Edited April 13, 2020 by TeeRick