Abandon hope all ye who enter here:

[TeaBag]

5 hours ago, Argo. said:

Optimists beware.  Take off your rose colored glasses.  Let's look at some facts.  This is not a feel good thread.

I want to connect with all the pessimists out there who also think that the cruise industry is about to have a fundamental shift in attracting discretionary spending and achieving profitability.

1. Look at the stock price.  Put your money where your mouth is.  Are you buying stock in the industry? Not yet. We already own some.
2. Look at your stock portfolio.  How much has it suffered this month?  Do you feel that you still have enough to indulge in cruising?  Maybe
3. Have you lost your job?  Has your salary been cut?  Can you still afford that cruise you booked months ago? Retired
4. Have you been on a ship with a confirmed Covid-19 case?  Have you been tested as a result?  (My wife has) Yes, have not been tested.  No symptoms as of now
5. Do you know any of the passengers on a stricken ship such as Princess or HAL?  Would you trade places with them? No.  Why would we?
6. How many Celebrity ships have had a crew member or passenger tested positive?  (and one death on Infinity) 4 that I know of.
7. Do you think Celebrity has been honest with passengers and crew about active cases or incidents onboard? I don't know about honesty but I, for one, breathed a sigh of relief as my feet touched the end of the gangplank on Monday after 17 days at sea worrying about more ports, including San Diego, closing to us..  If I ever sail with Captain Leo again, I will make it my business to personally thank him for allowing us to debark.  I'm now home answering this poll while eating the chocolate cookie we got in our cabins the last night on board.  Yes, it's yummy!
8. Are you happy with an FCC when you can't get a doctor's certificate because you are over 70 and you have health issues? No
9. Are you a Canadian who now has to pay 50% more for a cruise because Canadians depend on exporting oil to support the $.  It's not 50% yet.
10. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships?N/A
11. Celebrity has consistently underestimated the severity of this pandemic in their tardiness in canceling cruises.  May 11th sailing.. in their wildest dreams. I put down that we are booked for Sept 20 but I doubt we will be on board.

 

People are poorer, people are scared, senior cruisers are dying, companies are bleeding cash.  How is this going to end well before the end of the year?

 

Great poll.  Thank you Argo.

Edited April 3, 2020 by TeaBag

[ECCruise]

5 hours ago, Argo. said:

Optimists beware.  Take off your rose colored glasses.  Let's look at some facts.  This is not a feel good thread.

I want to connect with all the pessimists out there who also think that the cruise industry is about to have a fundamental shift in attracting discretionary spending and achieving profitability.

1. Look at the stock price.  Put your money where your mouth is.  Are you buying stock in the industry? Sold years ago at $105.00
2. Look at your stock portfolio.  How much has it suffered this month?  Do you feel that you still have enough to indulge in cruising? We have not had a stock portfolio since 1999.  And have no problems with money for cruising.
3. Have you lost your job?  Has your salary been cut?  Can you still afford that cruise you booked months ago? Retired at age 44.
4. Have you been on a ship with a confirmed Covid-19 case?  Have you been tested as a result?  (My wife has) No, but on one last month that was denied docking in 6 ports.
5. Do you know any of the passengers on a stricken ship such as Princess or HAL?  Would you trade places with them? No.
6. How many Celebrity ships have had a crew member or passenger tested positive?  (and one death on Infinity)
7. Do you think Celebrity has been honest with passengers and crew about active cases or incidents onboard? No, not very transparent, BUT understand the reason why.
8. Are you happy with an FCC when you can't get a doctor's certificate because you are over 70 and you have health issues? No, especially with 5 =X= cruises booked.
9. Are you a Canadian who now has to pay 50% more for a cruise because Canadians depend on exporting oil to support the $.
10. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships?
11. Celebrity has consistently underestimated the severity of this pandemic in their tardiness in canceling cruises.  May 11th sailing.. in their wildest dreams.  Not a chance.  We have a sailing in September 2020 that will never happen.

 

People are poorer, people are scared, senior cruisers are dying, companies are bleeding cash.  How is this going to end well before the end of the year?

 

They may be sailing by early 2021 but it will be a completely different experience.

Edited April 3, 2020 by ECCruise

[Pushka]

In Australia as of last night, 30% of all our deaths were cruise line passengers. Two more overnight. 

Was an avid Celebrity fan but will not set foot on a large cruise ship again. 

[Covepointcruiser]

Canada is a separate country from the U.S. and has their own “free” medical system.

It only makes sense to repatriate non U.S. citizens to their respective countries.   I would expect or rather hope to be sent back to my home country if I landed in another with an uncontrolled epidemic.    The fact that you spend money in Florida or own a vacation home in the U.S. does not make you a citizen.

[FRMPEI]

4 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

Your second question should have had the opportunity to answer:  will wait and see.  Am not convinced we will be cruising in January 2021.  I certainly have nothing booked for then.  I'm hoping I get to use the pieces of paper called FCCs which will be reissued to me because I used them on some cruises which were cancelled, but I'm not optimistic about that.  Celebrity is in a very precarious position.  LLP drove them deeply in debt with her new ships and all the refurbishing.  She initiated stock buybacks and paid out big dividends to keep the stock price high.  Thus no cash reserves.  How's that working out for you now, Lisa?  They just drew down the last of their credit reserves.  I'm just hoping I get the money back from my cancelled cruises before they go belly up.  I am exceedingly grateful to all those who are accepting 125% FCCs and not draining their cash reserves.  Am cancelling the Iceland/Greenland one today prior to final payment to get my $900 deposit back.  And, there's the issue of whether or not they might condescend to let me board one of their ships since I'm over 70.

 

Always appreciate your point of view.  We were among the first people to get cancelled for our March 15 Silhouette. in hindsight I can now say we were completely STUPID in even thinking on going. We were going against the advice of our federal health minister. I was even considering FCC then my alter ego the accountant in me said, " Take the refund Stupid". We took the refund.

 

Regards,

Kevin reid

[FRMPEI]

4 minutes ago, Covepointcruiser said:

Canada is a separate country from the U.S. and has their own “free” medical system.

 

 

Free?

 

[Jeremiah1212]

We aren't schedule again until February 2021. I would consider that a hard maybe. We're younger and more healthy than most on board but I'm not sure I feel confident enough to get a ship anytime soon. We see how people can't follow basic instruction to stay home and when absolutely necessary to be out, keep a six foot distance. I'm not sure I trust people enough to use sound judgement about their own health. And then with this specific issue there is such a high change of someone having contracted the virus and legitimately having no idea. We've taken the FCC for a canceled March cruise right now, but I may take the cash refund sooner than later. 

 

Given current events and the way things have unfolded on some ships you know there are going to be new government regulations coming. Some will be necessary, some will be an over-reach as a feel good measure from do-gooders in politics. I think it's very safe to say the industry is in for a big change. 

[Quo Vadis?]

2 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

It was never denied just questioned how it was going to be handled.  The governor said he didn't think south Florida could handle all those people coming in at once (I won't use his word because it was just stupid of him) but he never said they can't come.  All the powers that be worked on it all week until an agreement was made that took care of the passengers and the people of Florida.  I cried when I saw the Zaandam come in, can't imagine what it was like all that time having port after port deny you....but Florida worked it out and  brought them ashore.

 

Sorry just following the news...

 

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/ron-desantis-doesnt-want-holland-america-zandaam-c/

Edited April 3, 2020 by Argo.

[mac_tlc]

Thanks for connecting with all the pessimists. I personally will not be entrenched in that camp. Too much negative energy. 
 

mac_tlc

[mac_tlc]

double post

Edited April 3, 2020 by mac_tlc

[Quo Vadis?]

23 minutes ago, Covepointcruiser said:

Canada is a separate country from the U.S. and has their own “free” medical system.

It only makes sense to repatriate non U.S. citizens to their respective countries.   I would expect or rather hope to be sent back to my home country if I landed in another with an uncontrolled epidemic.    The fact that you spend money in Florida or own a vacation home in the U.S. does not make you a citizen.

I thought that there was a very simple solution.   Passengers are taken from the ship in isolation, the drivers protected with all the necessary gear, taken to an airplane without going through an airport terminal, the flight crew protected in their gear and on to their country of origin.  Why was this solution not offered right away?  And I 'm absolutely happy as a citizen of another country.  I just want the state that is so happy to take money from foreigners from any country in good times, show a little humanity when considering life and death situations in challenging situations.

[zitsky]

2 minutes ago, Argo. said:

I thought that there was a very simple solution.   Passengers are taken from the ship in isolation, the drivers protected with all the necessary gear, taken to an airplane without going through an airport terminal, the flight crew protected in their gear and on to their country of origin.  Why was this solution not offered right away?  And I 'm absolutely happy as a citizen of another country.  I just want the state that is so happy to take money from foreigners from any country in good times, show a little humanity when considering life and death situations in challenging situations.

 

How many pax are on that airplane.  How do you protect *them*???

Edited April 4, 2020 by zitsky

[Silvery Seas Cruiser]

We are booked on the 2021 Equinox Mardi Gras cruise next February. I am hoping that a vaccine will be approved before then, there will even be a Mardi Gras next year because currently New Orleans has the highest per capita infection rate in the US, and I am hoping that neither one of us catch COVID-19. Also I fear a consolidation of bankrupt ships into one mega cruise line because I can  imagine loyalty tiers disappearing and  soaring cruise rates to make up for lost revenue. So many concerns about future cruising, maybe a simple land vacation would be a safer bet next year.

 

I do hate to think of worst case scenarios. The best case scenario would be a return to almost normal cruising by Halloween or Christmas of this year. I hope, but doubt that Corona virus will fade into oblivion be early fall and become a distant memory, but if it doesn't, cruising might be the least of our concerns.

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

1 hour ago, FRMPEI said:

 

Always appreciate your point of view.  We were among the first people to get cancelled for our March 15 Silhouette. in hindsight I can now say we were completely STUPID in even thinking on going. We were going against the advice of our federal health minister. I was even considering FCC then my alter ego the accountant in me said, " Take the refund Stupid". We took the refund.

 

Regards,

Kevin reid

 

Glad your alter ego prevailed.  The 125% is tempting, but it is only a piece of paper.  That's why we waited for Celebrity to cancel our B2B2B which was already past final payment.  Then we had the option of a refund to our credit cards.

 

By the way, I now get mail order from that wonderful deli you took us to, The Preserve Co.  I am absolutely addicted to their carmelized red onion chutney.  Just received a new shipment.

 

Stay well!

[MarLieb]

I'm very torn.  We have a Dec. 2020 Summit cruise booked.  It's our third and it's become a little of a tradition now to do this cruise in December.  We've really enjoyed it as we've enjoyed all of the other cruises we've done on other lines (DCL, Lindblad, Paul Gauguin, NCL, etc.).  However, I've also been intently reading some of the threads on the Princess and HAL forums and, oh my gosh, from people having their cruises cut short half way across the world, getting stuck on cruise ships, getting sick on the ships or in transit afterward, not knowing if countries will allow you to dock and being in limbo at sea while people are getting sick and dying. . . !!  Things will have to be really, really different by then otherwise, I just don't think it would be a very good idea to go on this cruise.  On the other hand, with the travel advisories and now the Coast Guard directives in place, we may not be making the choice for ourselves.  I always knew travel had some inherent risks and that medical facilities onboard do not compare to those on land where I live (US), but right now, it seems the risk is way too high to get on a ship. 

[Pushka]

2 hours ago, mac_tlc said:

Thanks for connecting with all the pessimists. I personally will not be entrenched in that camp. Too much negative energy. 
 

mac_tlc

Realists. My comment was based on statistics. 

[markeb]

I'm going to be a realist. Neither pessimistic nor optimistic. Our next cruise, for a number of reasons, is in 2022. That at least seems doable.

 

I'm reading a number of posts that seem to believe there will be a vaccine for SARS-Cov-2 in less than a year. That is highly unlikely. It's possible there will be something useful under emergency rules if the pandemic continues, but it 1) probably won't be approved for juvenile and geriatric populations, and 2) will be emergency use. 90% or more of vaccine candidates fail under normal circumstances, and there are too many compounders on this one to believe it will be any different. So planning to cruise in 2021 because there's a readily available effective vaccine just isn't likely. The goal of a vaccine under those circumstances will be to control the pandemic, not to return to normal.

 

The cruise industry, as of this week, has now shot itself in both feet and legs, to add to the damage it did three weeks ago in sailing on the 13th. It's probably not fatal, but it's not good, and it will almost certainly result in fewer cruises, and some significant financial damage to the industry. Normal by fall is just not a reasonable option. Peak virus activity is going to regionalize over months, not weeks. In Virginia, we're seriously talking peak effects in July, and I'm pretty sure that's assuming effective mitigation by social distancing. Eventually, there will at least be clinical practice guidelines to better manage patients, but that's going to take time as well. It still looks like most people will have mild disease and some immunity, but we won't know what that really means unless or until there's a second wave.

 

I'm not saying the cruise industry is unique in this, but it does have unique challenges, and they've been highlighted dramatically. We'll see what happens, but "normal" by fall is dreaming. Just like people who travelled to join their cruise 3 weeks ago and found themselves stranded by cancelled cruises and no easy options home. It's time to take a knee and see what happens...

[Shadow9612]

8 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

Your second question should have had the opportunity to answer:  will wait and see.  Am not convinced we will be cruising in January 2021.  I certainly have nothing booked for then.  I'm hoping I get to use the pieces of paper called FCCs which will be reissued to me because I used them on some cruises which were cancelled, but I'm not optimistic about that.  Celebrity is in a very precarious position.  LLP drove them deeply in debt with her new ships and all the refurbishing.  She initiated stock buybacks and paid out big dividends to keep the stock price high.  Thus no cash reserves.  How's that working out for you now, Lisa?  They just drew down the last of their credit reserves.  I'm just hoping I get the money back from my cancelled cruises before they go belly up.  I am exceedingly grateful to all those who are accepting 125% FCCs and not draining their cash reserves.  Am cancelling the Iceland/Greenland one today prior to final payment to get my $900 deposit back.  And, there's the issue of whether or not they might condescend to let me board one of their ships since I'm over 70.

@Happy Cruiser 6143 how far into 2021 are you cancelling?

I have a dec 2021 princess booking that I was now considering cancelling....originally just waiting it out, but now worried about cruiseline bankruptcies and losing deposits....

 

Anybody have thoughts ?

[teecee60]

8 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

The devastating recession/depression has NOT YET REALLY BEGUN

 

(I fear that in six months we'll view April as "the good old days")

 

Head-in-the-sand denial is not optimism. And right now, it's downright dangerous. 

 

Unfortunately... your words are the very sobering truth. 

 

NOBODY has even started to consider another danger that has just started to pop up...

 

...crazy times that cause crazy people to do crazy stuff... like railroad engineers trying to drive a locomotive into a hospital ship, and mobs torching cell phone towers because they help spread covid. Get ready for "interesting" times. 

 

42 minutes ago, Shadow9612 said:

@Happy Cruiser 6143 how far into 2021 are you cancelling? I have a dec 2021 princess booking that I was now considering cancelling....originally just waiting it out, but now worried about cruiseline bankruptcies and losing deposits....

 

Anybody have thoughts ?

 

I have a November T/A booked on Royal that I will almost certainly cancel before final payment, and another T/A booked on Reflection in April 2021. That one MIGHT have a chance... depending on events in the next 30-60 days.

 

The health impacts are being looked at in realistic numbers only in the last week or two... because NOBODY wants to consider the probability of infections in the millions, and deaths in the hundreds of thousands.

 

The economic impacts are barely being mentioned at all... because NOBODY wants to consider the probability that this will be equal to, or possibly even worse than the '30s. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by teecee60

[sanger727]

I consider myself a realist but I do slant more optimist than pessimist. Why? Is it because I have rose colored glasses and refuse to see reality? No; it’s because what possible advantage is there to assuming the worst. 
 

Is this disease bad? Yes. But I’m an esssntial employee and considered ‘critical’ by my city which means I still have to go to work every day (luckily also means I will not be laid off). So sitting in my house refusing to be exposed to other people isn’t an option for me.

 

is the economy bad and getting worse? Yes. I feel very fortunate that I don’t need to tap into any of my stock market accounts right now but I have doubled my contributions for as long as I can afford to. It will come back and my portfolio will rebound nicely with the extra stock that I purchased ‘on sale’

 

will cruising return as a popular vacation option for middle America? I think so; I’m not confident enough to purchase cruise stock. I’m fortunate to have nothing booked right now. We had tentatively looked at a fall cruise and a large land/cruise combo trip in the spring. As far as I am concerned the spring 2021 trip is still on. The fall trip I am leaving as a wait and see.

 

are things bad and getting worse, yet. Will it gets better, yes. No reason to believe it won’t and for the sake of your mental health; assuming the worst all the time is detrimental. Assuming the best with enough reality to take proper precautions gets you to to face the day every day.

[drakes2]

12 hours ago, FRMPEI said:

 

Free?

 

I had a laugh too. No such thing as a free lunch. I also took the 100% refund. I have a small $125 FCC in CDN for another cruise for July which I cancelled. If I lose it so be it.  

[ECCruise]

I am really confused by the posters that think that prices are going to be very high when lines start sailing again. 

 

Without citing anything about supply and demand (which will be way out of whack, especially with many new mega ships coming on line) you only need to go back to the pricing response after 9/11.  Cruises were priced at rock bottom.  We remember sailing in a Royal Suite for less than $200 per day, total for 2. 

It was incredibly difficult to fill cabins at that time so prices were severely depressed.  And virtually no one thought they were going to experience a terrorist attack on a ship, only on the plane to get there if needed.

This is much worse.  In millions of minds, the cruise industry is the epicenter of the COVID-19 crisis, unwarranted or not.

 

Just because you think cruise lines will "need" the enhanced revenue to survive, where are you going to find people to pay even more than they have been paying the last couple of years?

[ABoatNerd]

13 hours ago, Covepointcruiser said:

Canada is a separate country from the U.S. and has their own “free” medical system.

It only makes sense to repatriate non U.S. citizens to their respective countries.   I would expect or rather hope to be sent back to my home country if I landed in another with an uncontrolled epidemic.    The fact that you spend money in Florida or own a vacation home in the U.S. does not make you a citizen.

 

 

Canada does not have a "free" medical system, it has a very expensive system paid from many high taxing methods (one of which is a 13% consumption tax on everything, less food). In Ontario about 25% of the citizens have no family doctor.  We have 2 sayings "wait in line to die", "wait in line in pain". I purchase part of my health care in the USA.

 

Add in the ever lower Canadian $ vs the USA$, many Canadians are ending or reducing their foreign travel. My self and my friends have taken much of out travel budgets and purchased new homes and extra nice vehicle replacements - no foreign travel.  

 

Such is the stark reality of many Canadian consumers.

[John182]

If all the capacity is still there then I would expect prices to be low. Who knows what will happen to the capacity especially if this goes on far longer than most people are suggesting/hoping. Right now I cannot see many countries opening up for cruises to dock in the short term as I would expect them to enforce some sort of quarantine on all incoming visitors so as not to undo their success in containing the outbreak in their countries.

 

The longer it goes on the more chance of some lines not surviving this.

[prish]

32 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

I am really confused by the posters that think that prices are going to be very high when lines start sailing again. 

 

Without citing anything about supply and demand (which will be way out of whack, especially with many new mega ships coming on line) you only need to go back to the pricing response after 9/11.  Cruises were priced at rock bottom.  We remember sailing in a Royal Suite for less than $200 per day, total for 2. 

It was incredibly difficult to fill cabins at that time so prices were severely depressed.  And virtually no one thought they were going to experience a terrorist attack on a ship, only on the plane to get there if needed.

This is much worse.  In millions of minds, the cruise industry is the epicenter of the COVID-19 crisis, unwarranted or not.

 

Just because you think cruise lines will "need" the enhanced revenue to survive, where are you going to find people to pay even more than they have been paying the last couple of years?

I too think prices should come down, not go up, even though there are many with FCCs to be used before end 2021. Those above 70 cannot cruise and the others are going to be wary about getting on a cruise ship. Plus a sizable population will have less disposable income to spend on cruises and vacations. 
 

Celebrity’s prices for 2021 are high now, but IMO they’ll soon go down once the next lot of cancellations take place, they’ll have to accept cruising probably won’t be happening anytime soon in the next six months or so at the very earliest...