Abandon hope all ye who enter here:

[oneputt18]

We are booked for November 2020, 99% that will not happen, we will cancel prior to final. Another booked for November 2021, this we are hopeful for. We also will not cruise again until there is a vaccine, although , unless they drop the over 70 , fit to travel, note from doctor, we will never cruise again.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

 Look for any surviving mainstream cruise lines to jack up prices (and high-pressure add-ons, new fees and up-sells) significantly higher whenever cruising happens again.

 

Bank on far, far fewer cabins or itineraries, too.

 

Sad truth is, a lot of today's fleet could be on a scrap beach in India before 2021. The industry was way overbuilt already ... and it simply won't be sustainable now. Major investment houses are suggesting unemployment over 15 percent; the St Louis federal reserve was talking north of 25. That's WORSE than the severest part of the Great Depression

 

It you don't personally know a bunch of folks out of work, give it another month or two. It's coming.  An awful lot of remaining jobs will take pay cuts, benefit rollbacks,

etc ... and a lot of small businesses that were living in the edge have closed up now and will never be back.

 

will the country come out of it? Eventually.

but it's not going to look like February of 2020 again for a long, long time.

 

and that truth dooms a lot of the mass market cruise ships, which banked on an enormous base of prospective customers each year. That base just fractured 

 

meanwhile, who believes that ANY government is going to let the cruise business skirt and duck  genuine regulatory oversight from now on? Grand, diamond, coral, zaandam .... privately owned, tax-dodging businesses were steadily crying to governments for expensive emergency aid during national crises. And we still ended up with lists of dead passengers and crew. Guaranteed, no government will allow a replay ... so even if a miracle vaccine turns up, the cruise industry will have to pump a lot more into preparations and contingency plans before the first ship sails again. That's going to cost a bunch - and guess who will have to pay?

 

will higher prices drive away some long-time customers? Sure. So what.

 

for the cruise lines: Fewer, poorer customers ... far too many ships ... a boatload and debt & new losses piling up each day. There's simply no other way any middle-market line could hope to resume business without major downsizing along with big price increases.

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[PTC DAWG]

14 hours ago, mac_tlc said:

Thanks for connecting with all the pessimists. I personally will not be entrenched in that camp. Too much negative energy. 
 

mac_tlc

Well said...

[Quo Vadis?]

3 minutes ago, PTC DAWG said:

14 hours ago, mac_tlc said:

Thanks for connecting with all the pessimists. I personally will not be entrenched in that camp. Too much negative energy. 
 

mac_tlc

"Well said... "

 

The title warned you but thanks for dropping by to read about different opinions on this crisis.

 

[NMTraveller]

I think that the truth lies somewhere between the optimists and the pessimists.  This is unprecedented and hard to predict.  For those that think they are going to have normal cruising by first of July probably too optimistic.  For those that think that we won't see cruising for 2 years, probably too pessimistic.

 

The best that anyone can do right now is to be prepared for changes to travel.  I have cancelled 3 or 4 trips already and will probably end up cancelling others.  I do have non cruise trips towards the end of May and expect those to be cancelled.  The back up plan is a local trip to the lake if that happens.

 

 

Edited April 4, 2020 by NMTraveller

[davekathy]

...https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22732-royal-caribbean-to-use-ships-to-get-crew-home.html

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

13 hours ago, Shadow9612 said:

@Happy Cruiser 6143 how far into 2021 are you cancelling?

I have a dec 2021 princess booking that I was now considering cancelling....originally just waiting it out, but now worried about cruiseline bankruptcies and losing deposits....

 

Anybody have thoughts ?

 

I currently do not have any cruises booked for 2021.  Will not be doing any more bookings until things sort themselves out.  Also need to recover all my money that Celebrity currently has.

[Quo Vadis?]

22 hours ago, C-Dragons said:

Optimists beware.  Take off your rose colored glasses.  Let's look at some facts.  This is not a feel good thread. My glasses are definitely not rose colored. 😉

I want to connect with all the pessimists out there who also think that the cruise industry is about to have a fundamental shift in attracting discretionary spending and achieving profitability. Your Poll implies that you are inviting Optimists and Pessimists to vote, but your remarks and questions below are definitely aimed at pessimists, so I guess I probably shouldn’t have voted.

 

1. Do you know any of the passengers on a stricken ship such as Princess or HAL?  Would you trade places with them? No, and your second question is a non sequitur. Passengers on Eclipse found themselves in a similar situation.  Country after country denied them the opportunity to disembark.  I believe that news of confinement on a plague ship will spread and more people will refrain from cruising as a result.
2. How many Celebrity ships have had a crew member or passenger tested positive?  (and one death on Infinity) I think probably far fewer than all the infected ships belonging to all other cruise lines.  I believe that Celebrity execs also thought that they were better than the others and that it would not affect them.  Then there was Apex.
3. Do you think Celebrity has been honest with passengers and crew about active cases or incidents onboard? That is probably best answered by those who were on an affected sailing.  That includes us.  We received the notice after we disembarked and after we were notified by local health officials
4. Are you happy with an FCC when you can't get a doctor's certificate because you are over 70 and you have health issues? I did receive an FCC which I am happy with, but I'm also under 70 and healthy.
5. Are you a Canadian who now has to pay 50% more for a cruise because Canadians depend on exporting oil to support the $. Not applicable.
6. If you are a Canadian who has spent thousands of dollars in Florida as  a snowbird or a cruiser, did you appreciate being called a foreigner and denied help in getting off HAL's stricken ships? 
    First, not applicable, second why the question addressing HAL cruisers on a X board?  Because it affected Canadian tourists and any non-Florida resident.  Any policy aimed at one cruise company may affect us all.
7. Celebrity has consistently underestimated the severity of this pandemic in their tardiness in canceling cruises.  May 11th sailing.. in their wildest dreams. I do agree that the May sailing and all others during the Summer months will be canceled. (Our April 13th one was).

 ☮️

 

just a few responses to comments on my initial post.

[richard1s]

22 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 yet some folks on CC are still asking if the June cruises will sail. I suspect most of them are the same ones who dismissed real news reports of this virus in January and February (and dear God, even into March) with the witless "Fake News!" and "lamestream media hype!" replies. They swallowed the lies.

 

  Head-in-the-sand denial is not optimism.

Nicely said and thanks for some great insight; I completely agree with you and find those comments totally irresponsible in many situations. The worst to me are those boneheads who respond to a post about any form of concern, be it this awful crisis or concerns about crime etc. with - "I'm not going to live my life in fear and hiding under a rock". So not only are they getting a chance to exhibit their profound courage from the comfort of their keyboard, but they are branding you a lowly coward for even expressing your concern. 

22 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

 

[zitsky]

2 minutes ago, richard1s said:

Nicely said and thanks for some great insight; I completely agree with you and find those comments totally irresponsible in many situations. The worst to me are those boneheads who respond to a post about any form of concern, be it this awful crisis or concerns about crime etc. with - "I'm not going to live my life in fear and hiding under a rock". So not only are they getting a chance to exhibit their profound courage from the comfort of their keyboard, but they are branding you a lowly coward for even expressing your concern. 

 

 

I mostly agree with you... but... this place would be pretty boring if we all said the same thing.

[Ride-The-Waves]

On 4/3/2020 at 1:18 PM, cluso said:

 

The thread that I started last night about not cruising for 1+ years disappeared early this morning.  Wondering if this thread will get deleted, too.  People need to have situational awareness (SA) of the Big Picture.  Until a vaccine is developed and deployed worldwide, everyone needs to slow down.  Covid-19 could rise again in the Fall or next Spring.  It is still an unknown.  Yes, the world's economy will take a big hit with the cruise lines out of business for awhile.  However, cruising should not be high on the list as we get back to normal.  Just my opinion, no need to ask for references.  Stay safe.

The CC monitors have been removing anything critical of cruising and projected timelines for returning to cruising that don't meet their very optimistic - and wrong headed - projections.  Its sad that we have to endure this type of censorship.

 

The most optimistic estimates are that the virus expansion will peak mid-May in the US.  Most optimistic.  And "peak" is the top of the Bell curve, not the end.  Cruise lines have to refurbish/clean and restart ships, retrain crews, and find passengers.  Most optimistic projection from the medical community is that a prophylaxis might be ready by Spring 2021.  Will cruise lines require the vaccine?  Lot of anti-vaxers out there.  Likely the smaller ships will be ready first - easier to staff, clean and fill.  Mega-ships?  Could be long gone.  Countries/ports will have their own requirements which may or may not be the same as cruise lines.  All these and more issues will need to be resolved before any "new normal" cruising can begin.

Edited April 4, 2020 by Ride-The-Waves

[Host Anne]

19 hours ago, Argo. said:

Sorry just following the news...

 

 

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/mar/30/ron-desantis-doesnt-want-holland-america-zandaam-c/

 

Following the news is everyone's first mistake.....I promised myself I will not say anything negative at this point in time....but there have been SO many inaccurate reports in the media that I am truly not watching/reading any of them at this point.

[Ride-The-Waves]

Just now, Host Anne said:

 

Following the news is everyone's first mistake.....I promised myself I will not say anything negative at this point in time....but there have been SO many inaccurate reports in the media that I am truly not watching/reading any of them at this point.

Especially from the Washington Times...  Try the NY Times or Washington Post for better accuracy and reality.

[Georgia_Peaches]

6 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Try the NY Times or Washington Post for better accuracy and reality.

That's funny...

[FRMPEI]

23 hours ago, EscapeFromConnecticut said:

 

I get the desire to just wish this all away, but folks ... it's just not going back to the way it was. That gets more clear every day. 

 

 

I now know why I like you. I read the quote in your Signature. RIP Neil.

 

Don't turn your back
And slam the door on me. - "The Pass"  Rush

 

Regards,

Kevin Reid

 

[Quo Vadis?]

42 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Especially from the Washington Times...  Try the NY Times or Washington Post for better accuracy and reality.

Is the Miami Herald more accurate concerning events in Florida ?

[zitsky]

51 minutes ago, Host Anne said:

 

Following the news is everyone's first mistake.....I promised myself I will not say anything negative at this point in time....but there have been SO many inaccurate reports in the media that I am truly not watching/reading any of them at this point.

 

So we should be uninformed?  I don't understand your comment.

[NMTraveller]

13 minutes ago, zitsky said:

 

So we should be uninformed?  I don't understand your comment.

There is misinformed and uninformed.  Some of these "news" outlets have more of a political axe to grind than supply factual news.

 

Listen to the experts and not the news reporters spinning what the experts say.  

 

This kind of reminds me of when a certain news network was spinning Brexit as the end.  That news network misinformation paid for a couple of cruises.

Edited April 4, 2020 by NMTraveller

[zitsky]

3 minutes ago, NMTraveller said:

Listen to the experts and not the news reporters spinning what the experts say.  

 

 

I do.

[hcat]

3 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

I currently do not have any cruises booked for 2021.  Will not be doing any more bookings until things sort themselves out.  Also need to recover all my money that Celebrity currently has.

 Happy Cruiser.....I reached out to you on Summit (cancelled cruise ) roll call  because we are looking into MSC for the future....hope you can help guide us a bit. Heard they have better cust service than X.

 

We filed our credit card dispute today.  Rep said many others are filing for Royal and Celeb unreturned deposits...,same issue.  Cancelled cruises were  removed from our Cruise inventory  yet alleged refunds are not back on the card  Celeb will not give us written canc confirmation or processing data for the refunds,  Card co will investigate.

 

To build their business back up post covid they will have to instill CONFIDENCE in Customer relations.

 

[hcat]

1 hour ago, Host Anne said:

 

Following the news is everyone's first mistake.....I promised myself I will not say anything negative at this point in time....but there have been SO many inaccurate reports in the media that I am truly not watching/reading any of them at this point.

 

Inteligent people can pick through and be discerning... but we don't watch it 24-7

..our local news is very helpful as we are all mostly in lockdown here in NY.

 

 

[1SGCruiser]

1 hour ago, Host Anne said:

Following the news is everyone's first mistake.

This board is discussing the news regarding this pandemic event and Celebrity's actions and future  - and you don't listen to ANY news?  I'm confused. 

 

We are all certainly able to make our own choices regarding how we feel about and react to what's happening as well as the way it's reported.  However, being uninformed might not be the best basis toward making meaningful contributions.

 

 

[1SGCruiser]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

The CC monitors have been removing anything critical of cruising and projected timelines for returning to cruising that don't meet their very optimistic - and wrong headed - projections.  Its sad that we have to endure this type of censorship.

 

Removing posts that don't personally threaten or insult is not only wrong, it's abhorrent.

Edited April 4, 2020 by 1SGCruiser

[followyourheart]

1 hour ago, Host Anne said:

 

Following the news is everyone's first mistake.....I promised myself I will not say anything negative at this point in time....but there have been SO many inaccurate reports in the media that I am truly not watching/reading any of them at this point.

 

Following the news is everyone's first mistake? You are not reading any news stories at this point?  WOW. As someone who is moderating this board I can't believe you would first of all do that, and second of all admit you are doing that.  If you aren't listening to the news how do you make decisions on what posts to delete ????  I come here for information.  I can figure out what to believe or not.  If you believe posts are incorrect please tell us why rather than deleting.   Add to the information rather than censoring.  If this board is just one perspective it does no one any good.

Edited April 4, 2020 by followyourheart
changed wording

[zitsky]

I get the impression that CC doesn't want anything posted that could hurt the cruise industry???