Abandon hope all ye who enter here:

[NMTraveller]

I thought that Cuomo was slow to reacting to the spread.  Perhaps he was a denier.

 

Our governor reacted to the problem with only 30 cases at the  time and reacted a week earlier.  I was not a fan of her before,  but I will giver her some credit.  CA and Washington were early problems and seem to have handled the issue fairly well.

 

There is leadership and there is reacting to the crisis that you presided over...

 

Will cruises resume out of NYC anytime soon.  That may be a better question.  Will travel be restricticted based upon hotspots?  NYC is a hotspot.

 

Our local news is less partisan than the local the sky is falling news.  The sky is falling news seems to be centered around NYC which is a train wreck.  Leadership?  Train wreck...

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by NMTraveller

[Jeremiah1212]

47 minutes ago, Gracie115 said:

 

Do you know when this was released?  Can't find it Carnival Corp website.

 

It's from April 3rd:

 

https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/1aa63f22-c821-4e1f-b48b-98aab1d754ad

 

 

 

 

[ECCruise]

59 minutes ago, dabear said:

For all those pax who are taking the 125%fcc thinking it's great, the 25% may not be enough. We have a ss1 for a European cruise this fall. In comparing the price to the exact cruise, date, itinerary and cabin, the 2021 price is almost 200% of the 2020 price. If we cancel , we will take  refund and not rebook at those prices.

Those prices will never last.  The cruise lines are practically screaming it from the rafters.

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

1 hour ago, Gracie115 said:

 

Do you know when this was released?  Can't find it Carnival Corp website.

 

It's from a filing with the SEC.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

1 hour ago, DYKWIA said:

 

After 9-11 the airlines didn't get people back on board by raising fares, they slashed them

 

9-11 was largely about consumer fear.

 

the cruise industry faces that, too, but also a second (and bigger) problem:

the economic plunge that has barely begun so far. When it hits in full force, the country will begin seeing why an indulgence like cruising just won't be in the    cards any longer - at least not for the

mainstream, middle-income mass market.

 

without a vast, thriving middle class, the big lines are cooked. That's why a lot of the parked cruise ships are likely to be structural steel or soda cans. And why prices HAVE to go up

[jonthomas]

I have a good one for you. On the Silhouette sailing this  Aug to Iceland, someone wrote that they hope they can find private tours, since so many have cancelled. Wish I could put my head in the sand like that and be blind to everything that is going on around me. People like that live stress free lives. Reality totally escapes them. 

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

I'm curious to know why so many believe that cruising will resume once a vaccine against COVID-19 has been developed.  We've had a flu vaccine for years, and they come up with a new one every year.  People still get the flu.  And die from it.  Why would this be different?  What I think would be more important would be an antibody test to determine if one has antibodies to COVID-19.

[jonthomas]

Agree.

[Gracie115]

4 minutes ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

I'm curious to know why so many believe that cruising will resume once a vaccine against COVID-19 has been developed.  We've had a flu vaccine for years, and they come up with a new one every year.  People still get the flu.  And die from it.  Why would this be different?  What I think would be more important would be an antibody test to determine if one has antibodies to COVID-19.

 

 

I think both would be important.  The flu vaccine helps keeps the death total low, as compared to what we are seeing with Covid19.  I think a vaccine would be very important to help reduce those numbers and make the disease more manageable.  One of the "benefits" of the flu vaccine is that if you still ge the flu you "should" get a milder version.  Hopefully that would be the same with this virus.  But, yes, I agree that the antibody test would be vital also.

[markeb]

13 minutes ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

I'm curious to know why so many believe that cruising will resume once a vaccine against COVID-19 has been developed.  We've had a flu vaccine for years, and they come up with a new one every year.  People still get the flu.  And die from it.  Why would this be different?  What I think would be more important would be an antibody test to determine if one has antibodies to COVID-19.

 

Depends on where we are and what we're trying to accomplish. Quick back of the napkin calculation, based on early transmission numbers, is that you need roughly 70% of the population to not be susceptible through either natural infection and recovery or vaccination to stop transmission. That's not stopping an individual from getting sick, but creating enough herd immunity that we stop sustained transmission. Social distancing reduces susceptibility while it's in place, so that counts for now.

 

I'm not sure what they're detecting in the antibody test. If it's for current diagnosis, it's probably not indicative of long term immunity, and how long and how good that is after recovery will take studies.

 

The flu vaccine has a much simpler hurdle to create herd immunity; it's generally not as transmissible. The hurdle to prevent severe disease or death in any individual is still pretty high...

[Prost Seattle]

And wait until the anti-vaxxers get ramped up, they’ve been quiet lately, but that won’t last. 

[John182]

It's a bit early for trying to compare the influenza virus with SARS-CoV-2. I don't think we have any understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 may mutate over time. All viruses mutate chiefly through a process known as antigenic drift so I am led to believe. That is why we have to have a new flu vaccine each season to cope with the changing virus. Some years the protection rate is higher than others. Of course we could get lucky and the new virus could be like SARS which burnt out quickly but which is still on the WHO monitoring list, but SARS-Cov-2 seems to be far more infectious than SARS.

 

In any case I cannot see many if any countries allowing cruise ships to dock for a considerable time. Although China has apparently stemmed the tide and infection rates in Italy and Spain appear to have peaked then unless the infections rates of people with mild symptoms or no apparent symptoms at all are far higher than has been estimated, we will not be in a position where we have herd immunity. If as widely reported the death rate is 1% of infections then in the UK then even using the pessimistic death projection of 20,000 people then only 2 million out of our population of over 60 million will have been infected in the timescales of our social distancing phase 1. There would likely be other lockdowns in the future unless we get novel medicines to limit the impact of the Covid-19 disease or vaccines to protect us.

 

Therefore I cannot see a country who thinks they have weathered the initial storm allowing any visitors without a quarantine period. That basically rules out cruising unless you want 6 ports on a world cruise! International travel is going to be a problem period for the foreseeable future. How long that period is is open to speculation. I have ruled out this calendar year and I wouldn't be surprised for that to be an underestimate.

 

Yep I'm a glass half empty kind of guy.

[Spif Barwunkel]

Okay, we are not going to curl up into a fetal position and await the "End of Days." Smart non-move.The Corona Virus continues to worsen worldwide and that in itself is cause for grave concern. When its interdictory cycle finally levels out and begins to subside there will not be one resident on this earth who will not have been affected, directly or indirectly.

 

That being said, I find it fascinating to see where some peoples heads are and how their priorities align. Examples follow.

As of this writing, approaching 1.5 million confirmed cases worldwide.

 - Do you think my cruises will be cancelled?

Approaching 70,000 deaths worldwide.

 - How long will it take for X to send me my refund?

 The Apex of this crisis has not yet been reached in many locations.

 - Will the cruise lines go bankrupt causing me to lose my money? When we start cruising again, will I still have my perks and status? And on and on.

 

I tell you what, folks, I've also got some money tied up in a couple of cruises this year. I'm sure they both will be cancelled. Refunds, although desired, are not at the top of my list of concerns. As for perks and status, don't need them. Too many critical issues to sort through, both now and whenever things settle down. There will be no cruising for a long time. That's not a matter of hope, that's a matter of fact. And while the fun of cruising will not be enjoyed for quite awhile, a greater concern for me will be the economics that follow a semblance of return to normalcy. The continued indiscriminate printing of money by the Federal Reserve, with no standard of value, might help millions in the short term. However, in the long term the results could be catastrophic to us all.. 

 

Look beyond the tip of your nose. See what things look like at arms length. Don't abandon hope, but hope for the best.  

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by Spif Barwunkel

[Gracie115]

6 minutes ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

Okay, we are not going to curl up into a fetal position and await the "End of Days." Smart non-move.The Corona Virus continues to worsen worldwide and that in itself is cause for grave concern. When its interdictory cycle finally levels out and begins to subside there will not be one resident on this earth who will not have been affected, directly or indirectly.

 

That being said, I find it fascinating to see where some peoples heads are and how their priorities align. Examples follow.

As of this writing, approaching 1.5 million confirmed cases worldwide.

 - Do you think my cruises will be cancelled?

Approaching 70,000 deaths worldwide.

 - How long will it take for X to send me my refund?

 The Apex of this crisis has not yet been reached in many locations.

 - Will the cruise lines go bankrupt causing me to lose my money? When we start cruising again, will I still have my perks and status? And on and on.

 

I tell you what, folks, I've also got some money tied up in a couple of cruises this year. I'm sure they both will be cancelled. Refunds, although desired, are not at the top of my list of concerns. As for perks and status, don't need them. Too many critical issues to sort through, both now and whenever things settle down. There will be no cruising for a long time. That's not a matter of hope, that's a matter of fact. And while the joy of cruising will not be enjoyed for quite awhile, a greater concern for me will be the economics that follow a semblance of return to normalcy. The continued indiscriminate printing of money by the Federal Reserve, with no standard of value, may help millions in the short term. However, in the long term the results could be catastrophic to us all.. 

 

Look beyond the tip of your nose. See what things look like at arms length. Don't abandon hope, but hope for the best.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not that anything you say is wrong but I think being concerned about 13K plus refunded, or whatever it may be for anyone, is also worthwhile....  Is it at the top of my concerns, of course not, but we are also not wealthy enough to just say "Oh well" if the lines go belly up.  

 

As far as perks, points, credits are concerned I could care less, overall far more worried about our world and getting on a ship is so far off our radar I can't even see it.  But, yeah, I still want my money back.  

[cruisemom42]

 

We don't really know whether the new virus will behave like the flu virus or not. It is frequently compared to flu in terms of the introduction of a new virus into the population, because it is one of the better recent examples we have. 

 

But a large number of the infections long referred to as "the common cold" are also caused by coronaviruses. They circulate around in the population and cause low-level respiratory infections year on year. There's a possibility that the virus causing COVID-19 mutates in a way that takes it in this direction. We already know that a significant number of people infected only have mild disease. It may continue to circulate every year, more or less like a common cold or URI. (An interesting discussion with an infectious disease expert at Johns Hopkins discussing this possibility is here:  https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/04/two-scenarios-if-new-coronavirus-isnt-contained/  Note it was written over a month ago so the numbers and global situation are not current. However, the possible scenarios haven't changed.)

 

Alternatively, it does behave like flu and we ultimately control it more or less like flu -- that is, imperfectly, via vaccination and herd immunity -- so we do not continue to have global pandemics (necessitating social distancing, shelter in place, travel cessation, closed ports, quarantines etc.) and we simply end up dealing with this new disease annually.

 

Either way, this doesn't necessarily spell the death of cruising (or travel, or the business of living our lives). It is definitely a pause, though, and I think the uncertainty makes people a little crazy...

[zitsky]

Spif maybe you could tell us what we have your permission to worry about?  Since we're not allowed to think about thousands of dollars invested in the cruise industry?

 

It's entirely possible to take care of friends and family and also worry about cruising.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/05/criminal-investigation-launched-ruby-princess-cruise-ship-coronavirus-disaster
 

The Ruby disaster got worse today, and Australia is starting its criminal investigation. 
 

There is zero doubt that we'll see similar inquiries in the U.S. and elsewhere -- whichever Carnival beancounter decided to dispatch the final Coral and Zaandam cruises had opened the company to extraordinary liability.

 

 

[NMTraveller]

1 hour ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

The continued indiscriminate printing of money by the Federal Reserve, with no standard of value, might help millions in the short term. However, in the long term the results could be catastrophic to us all.. 

 

Look beyond the tip of your nose. See what things look like at arms length. Don't abandon hope, but hope for the best.  

 

 

 

 

 

Hey Spif,

 

I don't get your point here.  While helicopter money is normally a bad word,  what is the harm if the US dollar stays at it's current level?  Quite frankly I think that the USD is a little high as previous levels under previous administrations were 1 to 1.4 Euros.  If everyone else is printing money why should we not?  So far the USD to Euro is much higher.  If we do not print, then we can purchase a bunch of foreign goods but we sure as heck cannot sell them.  Our prices will be too high.  There is a good balance here and it is relative to what other countries do.

 

Previous admins were slow to get the stimulus out.  Let's hope that this one does much better.  I think that previous problems were too little too late...

 

You learn from the mistakes of the previous politicians.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 5, 2020 by NMTraveller

[Pushka]

Not Celebrity but Carnival (Ruby Princess in Australia). Cruise ended on 18th March. From this cruise - over 600 positives in Australian passengers alone (and many US passengers returned to USA) And 11 deaths. Currently several crew members are being treated in Aust hospitals, two are extremely ill. On the ship, estimates of another 200 crew sick. 
 

The ship is now berthed at Port Kembla (NSW) and yesterday a Criminal (Homicide) Investigation was launched by NSW Police Commissioner. Cruising is not looking good in Australia right now, irrespective of the cruise line concerned.  
 

There has also been three deaths this last month from passengers who were on Oasis and Voyager. 

[drakes2]

11 minutes ago, Pushka said:

Not Celebrity but Carnival (Ruby Princess in Australia). Cruise ended on 18th March. From this cruise - over 600 positives in Australian passengers alone (and many US passengers returned to USA) And 11 deaths. Currently several crew members are being treated in Aust hospitals, two are extremely ill. On the ship, estimates of another 200 crew sick. 
 

The ship is now berthed at Port Kembla (NSW) and yesterday a Criminal (Homicide) Investigation was launched by NSW Police Commissioner. Cruising is not looking good in Australia right now, irrespective of the cruise line concerned.  
 

There has also been three deaths this last month from passengers who were on Oasis and Voyager. 

@PushkaIs that RCI Oasis? I was supposed to be on the March 15th  cruise with my Granddaughter when it was cancelled the day before. I had checked in for our flight 10 minutes earlier. I had heard from people on this board that the sailing prior to ours was Covid 19 free.  Did not hear of any deaths. 

[NMTraveller]

3 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

It's from a filing with the SEC.

 

The filings are normally downbeat.  I read one from Southwest Airlines where the problem was union workers in the NYC area.  That was back when the airlines were on a rocket ship to prosperity and high stock prices.

 

This one is more downbeat than normal.    However the current CCL stock price is way below normal.

Edited April 5, 2020 by NMTraveller

[Hawkstar33]

Not looking good is a true understatement.     Bottom line is no country has a grip on this virus yet.     Only time will tell.   Can all guess what will happen,  till we are blue in the face.   While many here offer opinions, they are only that. No known experts on this virus as far as I can see.   Pray

[Pushka]

55 minutes ago, drakes2 said:

@PushkaIs that RCI Oasis? I was supposed to be on the March 15th  cruise with my Granddaughter when it was cancelled the day before. I had checked in for our flight 10 minutes earlier. I had heard from people on this board that the sailing prior to ours was Covid 19 free.  Did not hear of any deaths. 

My apologies, it was Ovation.  A 75 year old man died after an Ovation of the Seas. The other RCL ships that had deaths were Solstice and Voyager.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/apr/03/australia-coronavirus-victims-covid-19-related-deaths

Edited April 6, 2020 by Pushka

[hcat]

3 hours ago, Gracie115 said:

 

 

Not that anything you say is wrong but I think being concerned about 13K plus refunded, or whatever it may be for anyone, is also worthwhile....  Is it at the top of my concerns, of course not, but we are also not wealthy enough to just say "Oh well" if the lines go belly up.  

 

As far as perks, points, credits are concerned I could care less, overall far more worried about our world and getting on a ship is so far off our radar I can't even see it.  But, yeah, I still want my money back.  

 

Exactly.. this is a cruise website, not political, medical or economics.  We have no current cruises to chat about so the topics about refunds,   cruise lines restarting  or going belly up are expected and appropriate and  we should not be chastised for our personal concerns.

 

Spif:  We live in NY and are  well aware of how serious things are outside our door and elsewhere! But we do not come here to sort that out ..

 

[Spif Barwunkel]

To Gracie115 and zitsky, money spent with no return on the expenditure becomes a loss. It behooves us to make every effort to recover said funds because I, like you, do not trivialize losing thousands of dollars. And "Z', you have my permission to worry about anything you want to, in no particular order. Although we both know you don't need it. There is no right or wrong here, only a concerted effort by all to get through some challenging times. May we all recover, recoup and resume our lives as best we can.