Abandon hope all ye who enter here:

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

4 hours ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

I tell you what, folks, I've also got some money tied up in a couple of cruises this year. I'm sure they both will be cancelled. Refunds, although desired, are not at the top of my list of concerns.

 

Refunds at not at the top of my list of concerns either, but I am concerned.  Celebrity currently has about $14,000 of my money.  Maybe you can afford to lose that much.  I'd prefer not to.

[zitsky]

18 minutes ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

To Gracie115 and zitsky, money spent with no return on the expenditure becomes a loss. It behooves us to make every effort to recover said funds because I, like you, do not trivialize losing thousands of dollars. And "Z', you have my permission to worry about anything you want to, in no particular order. Although we both know you don't need it. There is no right or wrong here, only a concerted effort by all to get through some challenging times. May we all recover, recoup and resume our lives as best we can.

 

+1

[Spif Barwunkel]

19 minutes ago, hcat said:

 

Exactly.. this is a cruise website, not political, medical or economics.  We have no current cruises to chat about so the topics about refunds,   cruise lines restarting  or going belly up are expected and appropriate and  we should not be chastised for our personal concerns.

 

Spif:  We live in NY and are  well aware of how serious things are outside our door and elsewhere! But we do not come here to sort that out ..

 

hcat, you are absolutely correct, this is not a political or financial forum. Unfortunately, this current crisis has intertwined just about everything that has anything to do with our lives. That's now and for years to come. My mention of the Federal Reserve action was to point out a not-so-good sign of the times, from a different perspective. Might make us aware of additional concerns that will be forthcoming. Again, not just at the tip of your nose, but also at arms length.

[Ride-The-Waves]

6 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

I'm curious to know why so many believe that cruising will resume once a vaccine against COVID-19 has been developed.  We've had a flu vaccine for years, and they come up with a new one every year.  People still get the flu.  And die from it.  Why would this be different?  What I think would be more important would be an antibody test to determine if one has antibodies to COVID-19.

Two thoughts:

 

- Not everyone gets the flu vaccine.  Many don't believe in vaccinations.  They are likely some of our fellow cruisers.  

 

- The flu is a different strain between northern and southern hemispheres.  Learned that the hard way - caught the flu in Australia while vaccinated for the northern version.

[Shadow9612]

3 hours ago, Happy Cruiser 6143 said:

 

Refunds at not at the top of my list of concerns either, but I am concerned.  Celebrity currently has about $14,000 of my money.  Maybe you can afford to lose that much.  I'd prefer not to.

Just following up on an earlier post...is your $14K tied up in 2020 deposits, and are you requesting refunds? 

 

I had 2020 and 2021 Princess cruises booked that I decided to cancel today - I was starting to get worried about future Princess insolvency... Princess says it could take 60 days to see deposits refunded...Sixty days !?

 

Now wondering what to do with my xmas-2020,  2021 and 2022 Celebrity cruises given they are all before final payment and NRD.... if I cancel,  I lose the NRD, but if X goes bankrupt, I lose everything....

Edited April 6, 2020 by Shadow9612

[Gracie115]

6 hours ago, Shadow9612 said:

Just following up on an earlier post...is your $14K tied up in 2020 deposits, and are you requesting refunds? 

 

I had 2020 and 2021 Princess cruises booked that I decided to cancel today - I was starting to get worried about future Princess insolvency... Princess says it could take 60 days to see deposits refunded...Sixty days !?

 

Now wondering what to do with my xmas-2020,  2021 and 2022 Celebrity cruises given they are all before final payment and NRD.... if I cancel,  I lose the NRD, but if X goes bankrupt, I lose everything....

 

We cancelled our April 2020 cruise with Princess on March 8.  Still waiting for refund. 10 days ago when we called to get an update we were told it would be 90 days.  I don't think the refunds will happen until the lines are sailing again and are receiving an influx of cash from new cruisers.  I don't care about waiting just as long as they don't bankrupt out and we lose everything.

 

[BigAl94]

Worth remembering that travelling of any type without Covid 19 travel insurance cover would be very unwise and is not available on many existing and all new policies. This is unlikely to change until an effective proven vaccine is available.

[downsmead]

U.K. Foreign Office advisory 🤷‍♀️

Ministers are facing pressure to offer holidaymakers certainty after the Foreign Office upgraded its travel advice to warn against all non-essential travel abroad indefinitely.

Consumer group Which? said the restrictions, which were initially in place for 30 days until 15 April but have now been extended for “an indefinite period”, will plunge travellers into “a huge amount of confusion”.

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by downsmead

[bouhunter]

16 hours ago, jonthomas said:

I have a good one for you. On the Silhouette sailing this  Aug to Iceland, someone wrote that they hope they can find private tours, since so many have cancelled. Wish I could put my head in the sand like that and be blind to everything that is going on around me. People like that live stress free lives. Reality totally escapes them. 

Yeah, CC is still full of posts from people who think they're cruising in a few months.

 

Reminds me of a saying an old college prof liked:  "Ignorance is bliss, that's why there are so many happy people".

[NMTraveller]

16 hours ago, jonthomas said:

I have a good one for you. On the Silhouette sailing this  Aug to Iceland, someone wrote that they hope they can find private tours, since so many have cancelled. 

 

What I have learned from my role calls is that some have booked,  cancelled private excursions and some were out the deposit.  

 

I am not seeing much activity other than cancel notifications.  I am seeing some activity for a mid Dec. cruise.  

Edited April 6, 2020 by NMTraveller

[Pushka]

1 hour ago, BigAl94 said:

Worth remembering that travelling of any type without Covid 19 travel insurance cover would be very unwise and is not available on many existing and all new policies. This is unlikely to change until an effective proven vaccine is available.

Our Travel Insurance policy did cover us for Covid but now it's invalid as Australia went to Level 4 - Do Not Travel. We aren't even allowed to travel into another state of Australia. 

[TeeRick]

Back to vaccines for a minute.  As I have discussed here previously I have spent a good part of my R&D career in this area.  I will give you a few of my personal thoughts.  If you want to ignore me that is OK and just move on.  This is however a thread started about reality of the situation we all face.

 

Everybody in the world right now hopes for a 100% effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus.  I certainly share that hope.  There is lot of activity on this front right now and some early candidate vaccines.  But there is no assurance of success unfortunately. 

 

A few issues, and thoughts:

1) There are quite a few viral pathogens with no effective vaccine - despite years and years of effort. (HIV, Lyme, West Nile, Zika, HepC, Rhinoviruses (common cold), other coronaviruses including other SARS viruses. Many others.  What about Norovirus?  No vaccine. See https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

2) In particular, look into a similar RNA-virus pathogen called RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus which is spread by respiratory droplets like SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, and it and is deadly particularly in infants, the young and the elderly.  Years of effort but no vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html

3) It will be an enormous effort to develop, manufacture and test vaccine candidates for SARS-CoV-2.  Well worth the focus but it will take a lot of time to do this no matter what. No effective candidates yet but early days. 

4) If a successful candidate vaccine is selected, it will be a global effort to manufacture it and distribute it and administer it and it will be very costly to do so.  Despite philanthropy, some countries will not afford it or get full access.

5) The new vaccine will be limited.  It will be used worldwide on a prioritized basis to prevent the spread of new cases.  It will be used for the immune-compromised of all ages, the elderly at highest risk, healthcare workers, etc.

6) Prospective luxury cruise passengers will not be a high priority.  Perhaps it will become a travel vaccine years from now.

 

Final thought- A good anti-viral drug for fighting COVID-19 disease might also be the key so let's not overlook that too.  Possibly an easier initial path than a vaccine. There is no HIV vaccine but pretty effective HIV drugs these days.  And the same goes for Hepatitus C.

 

 

Edited April 6, 2020 by TeeRick

[Gracie115]

2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Back to vaccines for a minute.  As I have discussed here previously I have spent a good part of my R&D career in this area.  I will give you a few of my personal thoughts.  If you want to ignore me that is OK and just move on.  This is however a thread started about reality of the situation we all face.

 

Everybody in the world right now hopes for a 100% effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus.  I certainly share that hope.  There is lot of activity on this front right now and some early candidate vaccines.  But there is no assurance of success unfortunately. 

 

A few issues, and thoughts:

1) There are quite a few viral pathogens with no effective vaccine - despite years and years of effort. (HIV, Lyme, West Nile, Zika, HepC, Rhinoviruses (common cold), other coronaviruses including other SARS viruses. Many others.  See https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

2) In particular, look into a similar RNA-virus pathogen called RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus which is spread by respiratory droplets like SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, and it and is deadly particularly in infants, the young and the elderly.  Years of effort but no vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html

3) It will be an enormous effort to develop, manufacture and test vaccine candidates for SARS-CoV-2.  Well worth the focus but it will take a lot of time to do this no matter what. No effective candidates yet but early days. 

4) If a successful candidate vaccine is selected, it will be a global effort to manufacture it and distribute it and administer it and it will be very costly to do so.  Despite philanthropy, some countries will not afford it or get full access.

5) The new vaccine will be limited.  It will be used worldwide on a prioritized basis to prevent the spread of new cases.  It will be used for the immune-compromised of all ages, the elderly at highest risk, healthcare workers, etc.

6) Prospective luxury cruise passengers will not be a high priority.  Perhaps it will become a travel vaccine years from now.

 

Final thought- A good anti-viral drug for fighting COVID-19 disease might also be the key so let's not overlook that too.  Possibly an easier initial path than a vaccine. There is no HIV vaccine but pretty effective HIV drugs these days.  And the same goes for Hepatitus C.

 

 

 

 

My DH is a microbiologist and would agree with everything you've said and your final thought is right on.  We've talked about finding an effective treatment as being more realistic than a vaccine. Thanks for your thoughts.

[BP99]

25 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Back to vaccines for a minute.  As I have discussed here previously I have spent a good part of my R&D career in this area.  I will give you a few of my personal thoughts.  If you want to ignore me that is OK and just move on.  This is however a thread started about reality of the situation we all face.

 

Everybody in the world right now hopes for a 100% effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus.  I certainly share that hope.  There is lot of activity on this front right now and some early candidate vaccines.  But there is no assurance of success unfortunately. 

 

A few issues, and thoughts:

1) There are quite a few viral pathogens with no effective vaccine - despite years and years of effort. (HIV, Lyme, West Nile, Zika, HepC, Rhinoviruses (common cold), other coronaviruses including other SARS viruses. Many others.  What about Norovirus?  No vaccine. See https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

2) In particular, look into a similar RNA-virus pathogen called RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus which is spread by respiratory droplets like SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, and it and is deadly particularly in infants, the young and the elderly.  Years of effort but no vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html

3) It will be an enormous effort to develop, manufacture and test vaccine candidates for SARS-CoV-2.  Well worth the focus but it will take a lot of time to do this no matter what. No effective candidates yet but early days. 

4) If a successful candidate vaccine is selected, it will be a global effort to manufacture it and distribute it and administer it and it will be very costly to do so.  Despite philanthropy, some countries will not afford it or get full access.

5) The new vaccine will be limited.  It will be used worldwide on a prioritized basis to prevent the spread of new cases.  It will be used for the immune-compromised of all ages, the elderly at highest risk, healthcare workers, etc.

6) Prospective luxury cruise passengers will not be a high priority.  Perhaps it will become a travel vaccine years from now.

 

Final thought- A good anti-viral drug for fighting COVID-19 disease might also be the key so let's not overlook that too.  Possibly an easier initial path than a vaccine. There is no HIV vaccine but pretty effective HIV drugs these days.  And the same goes for Hepatitus C.

 

 

Hi,

I TOTALLY agree with your comments. 

I am retired but in my previous life I was a molecular immunologist, university full professor and in my spare time I was involved in making vaccines at the commercial level. 

Another treatment is passive immunity (using serum/plasma) from patients that survived

a COVID-19 infection. On CNN today, there may? be hope that this type of treatment

could be used on critical patients. Early results look promising. Some treatments with

chemical antivirals also look promising but require further testing and approval.

A partial response with vaccines/antivirals/passive antibodies that may not prevent the disease BUT they may prevent death (which is more important). Some speculate that

certain people (all ages) have issues due to their immune system goes into overdrive (cytokine storm) and die from this. Treating the overactive immune system may help?

As for vaccines, some speculate that even if the yearly flu vaccine is the wrong type, it may offer some immunity to other types. Anything that shows promise is being tested and

hopefully something will work!

 

[markeb]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Back to vaccines for a minute.  As I have discussed here previously I have spent a good part of my R&D career in this area.  I will give you a few of my personal thoughts.  If you want to ignore me that is OK and just move on.  This is however a thread started about reality of the situation we all face.

 

Everybody in the world right now hopes for a 100% effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus.  I certainly share that hope.  There is lot of activity on this front right now and some early candidate vaccines.  But there is no assurance of success unfortunately. 

 

A few issues, and thoughts:

1) There are quite a few viral pathogens with no effective vaccine - despite years and years of effort. (HIV, Lyme, West Nile, Zika, HepC, Rhinoviruses (common cold), other coronaviruses including other SARS viruses. Many others.  What about Norovirus?  No vaccine. See https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

2) In particular, look into a similar RNA-virus pathogen called RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus which is spread by respiratory droplets like SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, and it and is deadly particularly in infants, the young and the elderly.  Years of effort but no vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html

3) It will be an enormous effort to develop, manufacture and test vaccine candidates for SARS-CoV-2.  Well worth the focus but it will take a lot of time to do this no matter what. No effective candidates yet but early days. 

4) If a successful candidate vaccine is selected, it will be a global effort to manufacture it and distribute it and administer it and it will be very costly to do so.  Despite philanthropy, some countries will not afford it or get full access.

5) The new vaccine will be limited.  It will be used worldwide on a prioritized basis to prevent the spread of new cases.  It will be used for the immune-compromised of all ages, the elderly at highest risk, healthcare workers, etc.

6) Prospective luxury cruise passengers will not be a high priority.  Perhaps it will become a travel vaccine years from now.

 

Final thought- A good anti-viral drug for fighting COVID-19 disease might also be the key so let's not overlook that too.  Possibly an easier initial path than a vaccine. There is no HIV vaccine but pretty effective HIV drugs these days.  And the same goes for Hepatitus C.

 

 

Worked on the periphery of the industry. Good, realistic summary. You may actually be more optimistic than I am...

 

The good news is from what I’ve read, the virus is far more genetically stable than you’d expect from an RNA virus, so finding stable targets may be easier. Of course, if it was unstable it might have become less transmissible or less severe by now. 
 

i have a couple of very technical concerns that have been a feature of Coronaviruses that we might not see before a Phase III trial. Or widespread emergency use without a pivotal trial. But this is unlikely to be an easy vaccine, even with all the work already in place. 
 

 

[Happy Cruiser 6143]

14 hours ago, Shadow9612 said:

Just following up on an earlier post...is your $14K tied up in 2020 deposits, and are you requesting refunds? 

 

I had 2020 and 2021 Princess cruises booked that I decided to cancel today - I was starting to get worried about future Princess insolvency... Princess says it could take 60 days to see deposits refunded...Sixty days !?

 

Now wondering what to do with my xmas-2020,  2021 and 2022 Celebrity cruises given they are all before final payment and NRD.... if I cancel,  I lose the NRD, but if X goes bankrupt, I lose everything....

Some is deposits.  The bulk of it is from a B2B2B past final payment which was cancelled.  I have requested refunds for all.

Edited April 6, 2020 by Happy Cruiser 6143

[cangelmd]

7 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Back to vaccines for a minute.  As I have discussed here previously I have spent a good part of my R&D career in this area.  I will give you a few of my personal thoughts.  If you want to ignore me that is OK and just move on.  This is however a thread started about reality of the situation we all face.

 

Everybody in the world right now hopes for a 100% effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 virus.  I certainly share that hope.  There is lot of activity on this front right now and some early candidate vaccines.  But there is no assurance of success unfortunately. 

 

A few issues, and thoughts:

1) There are quite a few viral pathogens with no effective vaccine - despite years and years of effort. (HIV, Lyme, West Nile, Zika, HepC, Rhinoviruses (common cold), other coronaviruses including other SARS viruses. Many others.  What about Norovirus?  No vaccine. See https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/19/health/vaccines-poverty.html

2) In particular, look into a similar RNA-virus pathogen called RSV - Respiratory Syncytial Virus which is spread by respiratory droplets like SARS-CoV-2 and influenza virus, and it and is deadly particularly in infants, the young and the elderly.  Years of effort but no vaccine. https://www.cdc.gov/rsv/index.html

3) It will be an enormous effort to develop, manufacture and test vaccine candidates for SARS-CoV-2.  Well worth the focus but it will take a lot of time to do this no matter what. No effective candidates yet but early days. 

4) If a successful candidate vaccine is selected, it will be a global effort to manufacture it and distribute it and administer it and it will be very costly to do so.  Despite philanthropy, some countries will not afford it or get full access.

5) The new vaccine will be limited.  It will be used worldwide on a prioritized basis to prevent the spread of new cases.  It will be used for the immune-compromised of all ages, the elderly at highest risk, healthcare workers, etc.

6) Prospective luxury cruise passengers will not be a high priority.  Perhaps it will become a travel vaccine years from now.

 

Final thought- A good anti-viral drug for fighting COVID-19 disease might also be the key so let's not overlook that too.  Possibly an easier initial path than a vaccine. There is no HIV vaccine but pretty effective HIV drugs these days.  And the same goes for Hepatitus C.

 

 

Interested pathologist here, what do you think the prospects are for a flu-type vaccine that gives partial immunity?

As things are going along, it is beginning to look like this illness will be more manageable as a sporadic illness, or even as a seasonal illness. The world is getting a better handle on symptoms, symptomatic treatment and outcomes. The cytokines storm is worrisome, as are cases of myocarditis/cardiomyopathy and case reports of encephalitis, but we have all those issues with flu and we manage to have international travel, etc.

A vaccine that gives some immunity, like a treatment that keeps people off vents, could be a game changer, even if it isn’t 99% effective.

[UnorigionalName]

1 hour ago, cangelmd said:

Interested pathologist here, what do you think the prospects are for a flu-type vaccine that gives partial immunity?

As things are going along, it is beginning to look like this illness will be more manageable as a sporadic illness, or even as a seasonal illness. The world is getting a better handle on symptoms, symptomatic treatment and outcomes. The cytokines storm is worrisome, as are cases of myocarditis/cardiomyopathy and case reports of encephalitis, but we have all those issues with flu and we manage to have international travel, etc.

A vaccine that gives some immunity, like a treatment that keeps people off vents, could be a game changer, even if it isn’t 99% effective.

 

I think this is a nice article summarizing the current thoughts and trends of a vaccine:

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/record-setting-speed-vaccine-makers-take-their-first-shots-new-coronavirus#

 

Hopefully the Gates foundation throwing billions at it will help speed up the manufacturing process.  They plan on paying for factories for the 7 most promising vaccines, in the hope that at least just one or two of them will pan out, thus shortening the time to market.

Edited April 6, 2020 by UnorigionalName

[hcat]

22 hours ago, Spif Barwunkel said:

hcat, you are absolutely correct, this is not a political or financial forum. Unfortunately, this current crisis has intertwined just about everything that has anything to do with our lives. That's now and for years to come. My mention of the Federal Reserve action was to point out a not-so-good sign of the times, from a different perspective. Might make us aware of additional concerns that will be forthcoming. Again, not just at the tip of your nose, but also at arms length.

I understand..right now in NY we relate to our masks at the tips of our nose,, but the economic mess will be unfolding  everyday!

[TeeRick]

16 hours ago, cangelmd said:

Interested pathologist here, what do you think the prospects are for a flu-type vaccine that gives partial immunity?

As things are going along, it is beginning to look like this illness will be more manageable as a sporadic illness, or even as a seasonal illness. The world is getting a better handle on symptoms, symptomatic treatment and outcomes. The cytokines storm is worrisome, as are cases of myocarditis/cardiomyopathy and case reports of encephalitis, but we have all those issues with flu and we manage to have international travel, etc.

A vaccine that gives some immunity, like a treatment that keeps people off vents, could be a game changer, even if it isn’t 99% effective.

Any vaccine with some decent efficacy will be incredibly valuable.  If a partially effective vaccine could reduce the number of hospitalizations substantially, I agree with you that it could be a game changer. 

 

This season's (2019-20 northern hemisphere) influenza vaccine has about 45% efficacy if you look at the CDC data here:

 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6907a1.htm

 

Without getting too technical, the most widely used Influenza vaccine in not live and is generally derived from components of the predicted circulating A and B strains.  Influenza still changes and other strains could be circulating regionally so the vaccine is partially effective in that sense.  But still highly recommended.  It still saves lives.

There is also a live attenuated influenza vaccine administered by nasal spray called FluMist.  There are other successful live attenuated vaccines against common viruses too like MMR and varicella.  For SARS-CoV-2 it is not currently known whether a subunit /non-live vaccine approach against it's surface proteins (spikes) will be effective.  Or possibly a live attenuated approach, or a genetic vector approach.   A lot to be done.  We do not know if SARS-CoV-2 has mutated substantially enough in its circulation this year to get around contemplated vaccine approaches.  But the genome data is being actively collected and analyzed from patients in different parts of the world.  It is critical data.  It will guide vaccine approaches.

 

 

 

Edited April 7, 2020 by TeeRick

[Ride-The-Waves]

I'm so disappointed at the previous comments from biologists and virologists.

 

The bully pulpit has stated that the "fix" is hydroxychloroquine.  Simple!  Easy.    

[TeeRick]

I'm hoping to keep this conversation factual and informative.  Let's leave out politics.  Lots of other forums for that.

[hcat]

Agree!

[Ride-The-Waves]

16 hours ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

I think this is a nice article summarizing the current thoughts and trends of a vaccine:

 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/03/record-setting-speed-vaccine-makers-take-their-first-shots-new-coronavirus#

 

Hopefully the Gates foundation throwing billions at it will help speed up the manufacturing process.  They plan on paying for factories for the 7 most promising vaccines, in the hope that at least just one or two of them will pan out, thus shortening the time to market.

This should be funded by governments and not a foundation.  Government are the resources and the power to lead this type of research.  Its a global crisis and all government would be contributing on behalf of their people.

[TeeRick]

1 minute ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

This should be funded by governments and not a foundation.  Government are the resources and the power to lead this type of research.  Its a global crisis and all government would be contributing on behalf of their people.

In the US the effort is being funded by the federal government directly or through grant support, and by private and public companies.  And by the generosity of private foundations like Gates.  All hands on deck.  Please do some research on the value and support of the Gates Foundation to worldwide health causes and in particular, vaccines.