I'm beginning to think cruises might resume much sooner than I expected.

[mianmike]

To wit:

• President Trump repeatedly stated the cruise lines should be preserved.  
• President Trump is good friends of Carnival's Chairman Micky Arison.
• Melania Trump is godmother of the NCL Jewel. 
• Money is not the only tool in the President's toolbox. 
• The President can help the cruise industry through the regulatory concessions. 
• Yesterday the CDC has issued an order requiring "cruise ship operators shall immediately develop, implement, and within seven (7) days of the signing of this Order operationalize, an appropriate, actionable, and robust plan to prevent, mitigate, and respond to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships."
• The plan appears to be in preparation of the resumption of cruising before a vaccine is available.
• Total speculation on my part, but given Carnival's plan to begin cruising in May with reduced passenger loads which would be required to meet the requirements set-forth in CDC's order makes me think CDC is working with CLIA and the Coast Guard to figure out a way for cruises to begin sooner rather than later.  ??????   

 

Some noteworthy excerpts from the order:

" . . . it is ORDERED: 
 1. As a condition of obtaining controlled free pratique to continue to engage in any cruise ship operations in any international, interstate, or intrastate waterways subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, cruise ship operators shall immediately develop, implement, and within seven (7) days of the signing of this Order operationalize, an appropriate, actionable, and robust plan to prevent, mitigate, and respond to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships. 
 

2. As a condition of obtaining controlled free pratique to continue to engage in any cruise ship operations in any international, interstate, or intrastate waterways subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, the cruise ship operator shall make the plan described in paragraph 1, above, available to HHS/CDC and USCG personnel within seven (7) days of the signing of this Order.  

 

3. An appropriate plan is one that adequately prevents, mitigates, and responds to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships and that, at a minimum, must address the following elements: a. Onboard surveillance of passengers and crew with acute respiratory illnesses, influenza-like illnesses, pneumonia, and COVID-19, including reporting to HHS/CDC on a weekly basis on overall case counts, methods of testing, and number of persons requiring hospitalization or medical evacuation; b. Reports on the number of persons onboard the cruise ship and any increase in the numbers of persons with COVID-19 made to HHS/CDC and USCG on a daily basis for as long as the cruise ship is within waters subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. c. Onboard monitoring of passengers and crew through temperature checks and medical screening, including addressing frequency of monitoring and screening; d. Training of all crew on COVID-19 prevention, mitigation, and response activities; e. Protocols for any COVID-19 testing, including details relating to the shore-side transport, administration, and operationalization of laboratory work if onboard laboratory work is not feasible; f. Onboard isolation, quarantine, and social distancing protocols to minimize the risk of transmission and spread of COVID-19; g. Onboard medical staffing, including number and type of staff, and equipment in sufficient quantity to provide a hospital level of care (e.g., ventilators, facemasks, personal protective equipment) for the infected without the need for hospitalization onshore; h. An outbreak management and response plan to provision and assist an affected cruise ship that relies on industry resources, e.g., mobilization of additional cruise ships or other vessels to act as “hospital” ship for the infected, “quarantine” ship for the exposed, and “residential” ship for those providing care and treatment, including the ability to transport individuals between ships as needed; i. Categorization of affected individuals into risk categories with clear stepwise approaches for care and management of each category;  j. A medical care plan addressing onboard care versus evacuation to on-shore hospitals for critically ill individuals, specifying how availability of beds for critically ill at local hospitals will be determined in advance and how the cruise ship operator will ensure acceptance at local medical facilities to treat the critically ill in a manner that limits the burden on Federal, State, and local resources and avoids, to the greatest extent possible, medivac situations. If medical evacuation is necessary arrangements for evacuation must be made with commercial resources (e.g., ship tender, chartered standby vessel, chartered airlift) and arrangements made with a designated medical facility that has agreed to accept such evacuees. All medical evacuation plans must be coordinated with the U.S. Coast Guard; k. Detailed logistical planning for evacuating and repatriating, both U.S. citizens and foreign nationals, to their respective communities and home countries via foreign government or industry-chartered private transport and flights, including the steps the cruise ship operator will take to ensure those involved in the transport are not exposed; (the use of commercial flights to evacuate or repatriate individuals, both within or from the United States, is prohibited); l. The projected logistical and resource impact on State and local government and public health authorities and steps taken to minimize the impact and engage with these authorities; all plans must provide for industry/cruise line management of suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 without resource burden on Federal, State, or local governments;   m. Plan execution in all U.S. geographical areas – all plans must be capable of being executed anywhere in international, interstate, or intrastate waterways subject to the jurisdiction of the United States; and n. Cleaning and disinfection protocols for affected cruise ships. 
 

4. An appropriate plan shall be designed to minimize, to the greatest extent possible, any impact on U.S. government operations or the operations of any State or local government, or the U.S. healthcare system. 
 

5. The cruise ship operator shall further ensure that the plan is consistent with the most current CDC recommendations and guidance for any public health actions related to COVID-19. Where appropriate, a cruise ship operator may coordinate the development, implementation, and operationalization of a plan with other cruise ship operators, including an industry trade group."
 
 Veeeerrrrry interesting. 
 

 

[Fartlek]

I know I’m not getting near a cruise ship until there is a vaccine.  Regardless of your thoughts I would bet a lot of $$ that no one will be cruising until 2022 if the lines survive 

[bonvoyagie]

All of this for COVID-19 when there are so many other viruses on a cruise ship.

 

[luv2kroooz]

Airlines evidently don't think so. American just announced it is waiving change fees through 9-30; United through 12-31. I said many weeks ago I thought there would be a gradual phase-in on limited,  select voyages starting at the end of May. I don't think many passengers will be onboard, but I do think some cruises may be offered.

[Sand and Seas]

Sounds interesting to me.  I wonder how the cruise lines are going to respond.

[ladybugpug]

1 hour ago, mianmike said:

Yesterday the CDC has issued an order requiring "cruise ship operators shall immediately develop, implement, and within seven (7) days of the signing of this Order operationalize, an appropriate, actionable, and robust plan to prevent, mitigate, and respond to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships."

I was under the impression that was a response to the fiasco of ships dumping virus ridden passengers to go and infect the world and not due to cruising being up and running again soon. My belief is the same as many other people's...2021 if we are lucky and there is a vaccine. 

Edited April 10, 2020 by ladybugpug

[njhorseman]

18 minutes ago, mianmike said:

 

All valid points.  I had assumed the CDC would argue that cruise ships would be the last thing to return.  It looks like the CDC feels differently, or was directed to feel differently.   

 

Suggest you read the full "no sail" order, issued by the CDC today. It may change your opinion:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0409-modifications-extension-no-sail-ships.html

 

 

[roger001]

When there is a virus vaccine and we are all treated, cruises will resume.  

[waterjock]

Who is going on cruises this year. The largest % of cruiser are age fifty and above that is the worst % group for catching the virus. Cruise ships have been known for years as a place that is hard to control virus from spreading. At lease all you can get  is sick for a couple days this new virus can kill you.

[ohioNCLcruiser]

2 hours ago, bonvoyagie said:

All of this for COVID-19 when there are so many other viruses on a cruise ship.

 

 

Norovirus will kill your toilet but it doesn't kill people at the rate of COVID-19.

[adam_s_allen]

1 hour ago, blcruising said:

Airlines evidently don't think so. American just announced it is waiving change fees through 9-30; United through 12-31. I said many weeks ago I thought there would be a gradual phase-in on limited,  select voyages starting at the end of May. I don't think many passengers will be onboard, but I do think some cruises may be offered.

I think they may just be trying to help secure flight bookings. I know there's no chance I would book a flight before September if they didn't offer the option of waiving change fees.

[joejoe 59]

2 hours ago, bonvoyagie said:

All of this for COVID-19 when there are so many other viruses on a cruise ship.

 

You wouldn't be saying that if you were a family member of one of the 15 people that have died so far after getting off the Ruby Princess in Sydney.  There are 100's of confirmed cases from that 2 week cruise.  There is now a homicide investigation into this.

Still think it's just like any other  ship board illness?

 

[gmbhardy]

No vaccine = no cruise.

[desherry]

1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

Suggest you read the full "no sail" order, issued by the CDC today. It may change your opinion:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0409-modifications-extension-no-sail-ships.html

 

 

With this order, no cruise ships will sail from US ports until at least July.

[mianmike]

49 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

Suggest you read the full "no sail" order, issued by the CDC today. It may change your opinion:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2020/s0409-modifications-extension-no-sail-ships.html

 

 

 

That's not the order.  That's a PSA with excerpts of the order.  My opinion is still the same, CDC is directing cruise lines to come up with plans for sailing during the coronavirus outbreak which I find very interesting.  I had assumed the CDC's position would be 180 degrees of that.  Right now, there is a no sail order and the "no sail" portion will remain in effect until, at a minimum, the cruise lines have government approved mitigation plans.  Once the plans are approved, who knows?  The CDC Director has the authority to rescind or modify the order based on "specific public health or other considerations."  It will be interesting to see what he does.  The fact that Carnival says they are going to cruise this May (with reduced passenger load ships) makes me wonder. 

 

Here's the legal order. 

 https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/pdf/No-Sail-Order-Cruise-Ships_Extension_4-08-2020_encrypted-P.pdf 

[bonvoyagie]

34 minutes ago, joejoe 59 said:

You wouldn't be saying that if you were a family member of one of the 15 people that have died so far after getting off the Ruby Princess in Sydney.  There are 100's of confirmed cases from that 2 week cruise.  There is now a homicide investigation into this.

Still think it's just like any other  ship board illness?

 

I was not trying to make light of the current situation. However moving forward it seems to me like this is a knee jerk reaction to the problem which started by cruise companies allowing these cruises in the first place. The Diamond Princess should have been a wake up call to get all cruise ships off the sea and back to home ports.

[pcakes122]

19 minutes ago, mianmike said:

CDC is directing cruise lines to come up with plans for sailing during the coronavirus outbreak which I find very interesting.

You are misinterpreting the order.  The CDC is concerned about the US government resources that have been drained due to coronavirus on cruise ships. When they are saying that there will be no cruises until there are approved mitigation plans, they are telling the cruise lines that unless they can come up with a clear plan of how they can self-contain and self-manage any possible disease on the ships WITHOUT the intervention or resources of the United States (port crews, Coast Guard, etc. ) then they won't be going anywhere.

 

They are not inviting or encouraging cruiselines to come up with a plan. They are telling them that unless you can show us that you will NOT have to rely on the United States for ANYTHING, then you cannot embark passengers or crew - period.

 

There isn't a cruise line afloat that could come up with such a plan.  And honestly, would you even want to get on a cruise ship knowing that the Coast Guard would not be willing or able to help you in case of a medical emergency?

[mianmike]

6 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

You are misinterpreting the order.  The CDC is concerned about the US government resources that have been drained due to coronavirus on cruise ships. When they are saying that there will be no cruises until there are approved mitigation plans, they are telling the cruise lines that unless they can come up with a clear plan of how they can self-contain and self-manage any possible disease on the ships WITHOUT the intervention or resources of the United States (port crews, Coast Guard, etc. ) then they won't be going anywhere.

 

They are not inviting or encouraging cruiselines to come up with a plan. They are telling them that unless you can show us that you will NOT have to rely on the United States for ANYTHING, then you cannot embark passengers or crew - period.

 

 

You say I'm misinterpreting the order, but I feel like your interpretation is adding color and basically paraphrasing what I said.  Like I said, if Carnival wants to sail in May, at a minimum, they have been directed to write a plan and get it approved.  Note in my original post I bolded specific pertinent sentences.  The first phrase I bolded  was: "As a condition of obtaining controlled free pratique."   Controlled Free Pratique means permission is granted for a carrier to enter a U.S. port, disembark, and begin operation under certain stipulated conditions.   If the cruise lines want Controlled Free Pratique, "as a condition," they are directed to have an approved mitigation plan and operationalization of said plan at a minimum.   

[pcakes122]

15 minutes ago, mianmike said:

 

You say I'm misinterpreting the order, but I feel like your interpretation is adding color and basically paraphrasing what I said.  

I didn't add color.  I am just summarizing the actual order (that you posted)  See excerpt below about why the CDC is requiring cruise lines to come up with their own self-managed mitigation plan should they even think about resuming operations.  

[npcl]

4 hours ago, mianmike said:

To wit:

• President Trump repeatedly stated the cruise lines should be preserved.  
• President Trump is good friends of Carnival's Chairman Micky Arison.
• Melania Trump is godmother of the NCL Jewel. 
• Money is not the only tool in the President's toolbox. 
• The President can help the cruise industry through the regulatory concessions. 
• Yesterday the CDC has issued an order requiring "cruise ship operators shall immediately develop, implement, and within seven (7) days of the signing of this Order operationalize, an appropriate, actionable, and robust plan to prevent, mitigate, and respond to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships."
• The plan appears to be in preparation of the resumption of cruising before a vaccine is available.
• Total speculation on my part, but given Carnival's plan to begin cruising in May with reduced passenger loads which would be required to meet the requirements set-forth in CDC's order makes me think CDC is working with CLIA and the Coast Guard to figure out a way for cruises to begin sooner rather than later.  ??????   

 

Some noteworthy excerpts from the order:

" . . . it is ORDERED: 
 1. As a condition of obtaining controlled free pratique to continue to engage in any cruise ship operations in any international, interstate, or intrastate waterways subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, cruise ship operators shall immediately develop, implement, and within seven (7) days of the signing of this Order operationalize, an appropriate, actionable, and robust plan to prevent, mitigate, and respond to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships. 
 

2. As a condition of obtaining controlled free pratique to continue to engage in any cruise ship operations in any international, interstate, or intrastate waterways subject to the jurisdiction of the United States, the cruise ship operator shall make the plan described in paragraph 1, above, available to HHS/CDC and USCG personnel within seven (7) days of the signing of this Order.  

 

3. An appropriate plan is one that adequately prevents, mitigates, and responds to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships and that, at a minimum, must address the following elements: a. Onboard surveillance of passengers and crew with acute respiratory illnesses, influenza-like illnesses, pneumonia, and COVID-19, including reporting to HHS/CDC on a weekly basis on overall case counts, methods of testing, and number of persons requiring hospitalization or medical evacuation; b. Reports on the number of persons onboard the cruise ship and any increase in the numbers of persons with COVID-19 made to HHS/CDC and USCG on a daily basis for as long as the cruise ship is within waters subject to the jurisdiction of the United States. c. Onboard monitoring of passengers and crew through temperature checks and medical screening, including addressing frequency of monitoring and screening; d. Training of all crew on COVID-19 prevention, mitigation, and response activities; e. Protocols for any COVID-19 testing, including details relating to the shore-side transport, administration, and operationalization of laboratory work if onboard laboratory work is not feasible; f. Onboard isolation, quarantine, and social distancing protocols to minimize the risk of transmission and spread of COVID-19; g. Onboard medical staffing, including number and type of staff, and equipment in sufficient quantity to provide a hospital level of care (e.g., ventilators, facemasks, personal protective equipment) for the infected without the need for hospitalization onshore; h. An outbreak management and response plan to provision and assist an affected cruise ship that relies on industry resources, e.g., mobilization of additional cruise ships or other vessels to act as “hospital” ship for the infected, “quarantine” ship for the exposed, and “residential” ship for those providing care and treatment, including the ability to transport individuals between ships as needed; i. Categorization of affected individuals into risk categories with clear stepwise approaches for care and management of each category;  j. A medical care plan addressing onboard care versus evacuation to on-shore hospitals for critically ill individuals, specifying how availability of beds for critically ill at local hospitals will be determined in advance and how the cruise ship operator will ensure acceptance at local medical facilities to treat the critically ill in a manner that limits the burden on Federal, State, and local resources and avoids, to the greatest extent possible, medivac situations. If medical evacuation is necessary arrangements for evacuation must be made with commercial resources (e.g., ship tender, chartered standby vessel, chartered airlift) and arrangements made with a designated medical facility that has agreed to accept such evacuees. All medical evacuation plans must be coordinated with the U.S. Coast Guard; k. Detailed logistical planning for evacuating and repatriating, both U.S. citizens and foreign nationals, to their respective communities and home countries via foreign government or industry-chartered private transport and flights, including the steps the cruise ship operator will take to ensure those involved in the transport are not exposed; (the use of commercial flights to evacuate or repatriate individuals, both within or from the United States, is prohibited); l. The projected logistical and resource impact on State and local government and public health authorities and steps taken to minimize the impact and engage with these authorities; all plans must provide for industry/cruise line management of suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 without resource burden on Federal, State, or local governments;   m. Plan execution in all U.S. geographical areas – all plans must be capable of being executed anywhere in international, interstate, or intrastate waterways subject to the jurisdiction of the United States; and n. Cleaning and disinfection protocols for affected cruise ships. 
 

4. An appropriate plan shall be designed to minimize, to the greatest extent possible, any impact on U.S. government operations or the operations of any State or local government, or the U.S. healthcare system. 
 

5. The cruise ship operator shall further ensure that the plan is consistent with the most current CDC recommendations and guidance for any public health actions related to COVID-19. Where appropriate, a cruise ship operator may coordinate the development, implementation, and operationalization of a plan with other cruise ship operators, including an industry trade group."
 
 Veeeerrrrry interesting. 
 

 

Don't think so.  The CDC has issued a no sail order for any ship over 250 passengers. The plan is more about managing the ships in or near US ports with sick crew members on board.

 

Basically the order requires the cruise lines to have approval of USCG in consultation of HHS CDC to do anything, including changing berth for the next 100 days.

 

It puts all of the ships that voluntarily suspended operations earlier, on a non-voluntary suspended operations order.

Edited April 10, 2020 by npcl

[wolfie11]

My understanding was that the urgency of this order was directed at the 6000 passengers still at sea and the 90,000 crew that are on ships lurking around the US.  How much do you think it costs US taxpayers every time they have to send the Coast Guard out to evacuate someone off these ships?

Edited April 10, 2020 by wolfie11

[npcl]

Just now, wolfie11 said:

My understanding was that the urgency of this order was directed at the 6000 passengers still at sea and the 90,000 crew that are on ships lurking around the US.  How much do you think it costs US taxpayers every time they have to send the Coast Guard out to evacuate someone odd these ships?

Yep, it is basically a directive to the cruise line to solve their issues with those ships, using their own resources, at their own expense and oh by the way do extensive medical checks and report the results in detail to CDC.  No more hiding the number of cases among the crew.

[mianmike]

23 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

I didn't add color.  I am just summarizing the actual order (that you posted)  See excerpt below about why the CDC is requiring cruise lines to come up with their own self-managed mitigation plan should they even think about resuming operations.  

 

Sorry, sports fan here.  When I said add "color" I meant like a color commentator at sporting event describing the events unfolding.  In other words, I'm saying you were describing the contents of the CDC order.   

[GlamorousGirl]

2 hours ago, waterjock said:

Who is going on cruises this year. The largest % of cruiser are age fifty and above that is the worst % group for catching the virus. Cruise ships have been known for years as a place that is hard to control virus from spreading. At lease all you can get  is sick for a couple days this new virus can kill you.

I am, as long as they sail. Not going next month in Europe - even if it’s not cancelled I’m not willing to fly until November. I have others scheduled for September (can drive to) and November, and I have no intention of cancelling. I would also consider booking another sooner, but only if I didn’t have to fly to it. Will be turning 50 this year. The real outbreak was on land when the ships stopped sailing, not at sea, and I would have felt safer on my canceled cruise than back at home!

[pokerpro5]

Lots of delusional people in this thread.

 

Regardless of the protocols utilized, viruses spread quickly on cruise ships.  There's no way around that.

 

For cruise ships to sail again, at the very minimum, there needs to be a certainty that every single passenger onboard either has already caught COVID-19 sometime in the past (and is over it), or currently does not have COVID-19.

 

This can only be done via reliable antibody testing (which we don't have yet) and reliable testing (which we don't have yet either -- there's a 30% false negative rate!)

 

Testing for fevers or whatever isn't going to cut it, because it is known for certain that many COVID-19 carriers are asymptomatic or temporarily asymptomatic.

 

All it would take would be ONE cruiser to board with transmissible COVID-19, and it would spread like wildfire.

 

When life gets back to normal, it will be in phases:

 

Phase 1:  Return to visiting with non-vulnerable friends and family

Phase 2:  Return to non-essential businesses, sporting events with no audience

Phase 3:  Return to restaurants and small gatherings

Phase 4:  Return to National Parks, hiking areas, and medium-sized (less than 250 people) gatherings

Phase 5:  Return to sporting events with an audience

Phase 6:  Return to large gatherings (251-1000 people)

Phase 7:  Return to huge events/gatherings (1001+) and cruise ships

 

Phase 7 is a long way away.  Believing US-based ships will sail in May or June is pure delusion.

Edited April 10, 2020 by pokerpro5