When will those over 70 be able to Cruise again?

[Windsurfboy]

Everyone is banned from cruising,  the question is when they lift the ban will they treat over 70s differently.

 

The over 70s advice by the goverment in early March was an off the top of the head policy based on limited data, but reasonable advice at the time.

 

Everyone is equally susceptible to catching covid 19 , but not of being seriously ill. If you look at the data now you see there are many factors that lead to a higher death rate.

 

By far the most important is having pre existing conditions especially linked to heart or breathing,   irrespective of age

 

The others are

 

Being overweight (due to pressure on heart and lungs)

Age (due to decrease in immune system)

Being from the BAME communities. (Nobody knows why but seems real)

 

Age is only one of these secondary conditions , but as a lot of older people have pre-existing conditions so it's easy to confuse age with pre-exiting  conditions.  Unfortunately this makes it the easiest for politicians to latch on to in a sentimental way. They can say we are protecting our older vulnerable generation.

 

They would be crucified if they said overweight people shouldn't cruise or go out

Advising against an ethnic  group or groups would be illegal. 

 

So don't be surprised if the fit over 70s are unnecessarily advised to stay under lockdown for longer than general population 

 

[exlondoner]

2 minutes ago, Windsurfboy said:

Everyone is banned from cruising,  the question is when they lift the ban will they treat over 70s differently.

 

The over 70s advice by the goverment in early March was an off the top of the head policy based on limited data, but reasonable advice at the time.

 

Everyone is equally susceptible to catching covid 19 , but not of being seriously ill. If you look at the data now you see there are many factors that lead to a higher death rate.

 

By far the most important is having pre existing conditions especially linked to heart or breathing,   irrespective of age

 

The others are

 

Being overweight (due to pressure on heart and lungs)

Age (due to decrease in immune system)

Being from the BAME communities. (Nobody knows why but seems real)

 

Age is only one of these secondary conditions , but as a lot of older people have pre-existing conditions so it's easy to confuse age with pre-exiting  conditions.  Unfortunately this makes it the easiest for politicians to latch on to in a sentimental way. They can say we are protecting our older vulnerable generation.

 

They would be crucified if they said overweight people shouldn't cruise or go out

Advising against an ethnic  group or groups would be illegal. 

 

So don't be surprised if the fit over 70s are unnecessarily advised to stay under lockdown for longer than general population 

 

 

You omit being male as an aggravating factor, but it does seem to be one.

[Windsurfboy]

Yep forgot  about that one,

 

Again not one politicians dare do anything about,  imagine them saying men should stay at home and women go out

[exlondoner]

6 minutes ago, Windsurfboy said:

Yep forgot  about that one,

 

Again not one politicians dare do anything about,  imagine them saying men should stay at home and women go out

 

But nonetheless it should be mentioned in your list, as at any rate in the U.K., twice as many men as as women die.

[navybankerteacher]

 

3 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

Being from the BAME communities. (Nobody knows why but seems real)

 

...

 

Doesn’t “BAME” largely translate to somewhat lower economic status - so that, rather than non-white might be a more relevant marker?

[exlondoner]

36 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

 

Doesn’t “BAME” largely translate to somewhat lower economic status - so that, rather than non-white might be a more relevant marker?

 

As the difference seems most significant in the case of doctors, this does not seem to be the case. A totally disproportionate number of BAME medics have died in the UK.

[Lanky Lad]

For many people (including me) cruising is a real habit.  So the need for a fix could be so strong it would be very tempting to risk it and hope for the best.  

 

What we need is an effective treatment whilst we are waiting for a vaccine.

[resistk]

2 hours ago, Lanky Lad said:

For many people (including me) cruising is a real habit.  So the need for a fix could be so strong it would be very tempting to risk it and hope for the best.  

 

What we need is an effective treatment whilst we are waiting for a vaccine.

 

Agreed however at this point the experts canot even agree on the symptoms, number of strains, as well as effective treatment.  I think the entire 2020 season will be written off and likely the first quarter 2021.  First we have to figure how to get schools and colleges open again.  Cruising is a low priority activity with a proven high risk factor for spreading COVID.

[IB2]

16 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

Everyone is banned from cruising,  the question is when they lift the ban will they treat over 70s differently.

 

The over 70s advice by the goverment in early March was an off the top of the head policy based on limited data, but reasonable advice at the time.

 

Everyone is equally susceptible to catching covid 19 , but not of being seriously ill. If you look at the data now you see there are many factors that lead to a higher death rate.

 

By far the most important is having pre existing conditions especially linked to heart or breathing,   irrespective of age

 

The others are

 

Being overweight (due to pressure on heart and lungs)

Age (due to decrease in immune system)

Being from the BAME communities. (Nobody knows why but seems real)

 

Age is only one of these secondary conditions , but as a lot of older people have pre-existing conditions so it's easy to confuse age with pre-exiting  conditions.  Unfortunately this makes it the easiest for politicians to latch on to in a sentimental way. They can say we are protecting our older vulnerable generation.

 

They would be crucified if they said overweight people shouldn't cruise or go out

Advising against an ethnic  group or groups would be illegal. 

 

So don't be surprised if the fit over 70s are unnecessarily advised to stay under lockdown for longer than general population 

 

 

Yes, there are actually three separate issues here - what new restrictions will cruise companies decide (or be required) to introduce to reassure passengers, ports and governments about their safety and medical resilience?  What lockdown restrictions will remain in place around the world?  And what restrictions will persist on foreign travel (for UK passengers this means the FCO travel advice, both on cruising in general and elderly travellers in particular).

 

In the UK, the possibility that lockdown restrictions might remain in place for the over 70s throughout 2020 is already being discussed in the media, probably floated unofficially by government to see what sort of reaction it gets.

 

It is also likely that when lockdown is lifted, there will still be restrictions on foreign travel (both imposed by your own country and preventing you travelling to or within others).  I'd expect the FCO discouragement of cruising to be at the tail end of any return to normality.  Whether they will continue to single out the elderly, who can say?  Travelling against FCO advice means UK passengers would be uninsured, as per the small print of travel insurance policies sold in the UK.

 

The most difficult one is the changes the cruise industry might need to take.  That recent US directive (which applied to the short term, but contained pointers to the longer term) suggests that authorities are going to take a strong line (the cruise industry hasn't won friends with all its offshoring and tax avoidance, nor some of its denial as the virus crisis broke).  Personally I'd be surprised if this doesn't include restrictions on taking on board passengers who are already ill - either with serious long-term conditions (more pre-booking screening) or a short-term infection (expect to walk through temperature monitors as you embark, etc.).  Given that the industry depends on elderly passengers one would hope that this focuses on people's medical history, rather than age per se.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2020 by IB2
typo

[IB2]

9 hours ago, Lanky Lad said:

For many people (including me) cruising is a real habit.  So the need for a fix could be so strong it would be very tempting to risk it and hope for the best.  

 

What we need is an effective treatment whilst we are waiting for a vaccine.

Treatment for Coronaviruses (which include the flu and the common cold) is generally for symptoms rather than the actual infection.  So far I haven't seen any evidence that this virus will be any different from its stablemates?  Despite Trump foolishly ramping that malaria drug as a treatment (which has led to overdoses and deaths both in the US and across the world), the latest study just published suggests (it was a non-randomised trial, so not conclusive) both that chloroquinine both makes no difference to the progress of the Coronavirus and risks side effects and excess death, particularly by aggravating any cardiac weaknesses.

[IB2]

12 hours ago, exlondoner said:

 

As the difference seems most significant in the case of doctors, this does not seem to be the case. A totally disproportionate number of BAME medics have died in the UK.

 

The truth is that no-one yet knows.  There does appear to be a disproportionate impact.  Possible explanations include economic and housing conditions (BAME people are concentrated in urban areas, tend lower socioeconomically, and tend to larger household/family size), lifestyle (impact of some diets on obesity and diabetes, more regular religious observance so more frequent close interactions with others), types of employment, and the possibility of some differences in genetics.

 

I doubt we will have a firm answer until research is completed long after the crisis is over.

Edited April 22, 2020 by IB2

[alc13]

12 hours ago, Lanky Lad said:

For many people (including me) cruising is a real habit.  So the need for a fix could be so strong it would be very tempting to risk it and hope for the best.  

 

What we need is an effective treatment whilst we are waiting for a vaccine.

I saw an article saying that covid-19 patients often die of pneumonia, and turning them on their sides relieves the most affected lobes and allows them to breathe more easily.  And there is an antiviral that looks promising.  All encouraging news.

[resistk]

2 hours ago, alc13 said:

I saw an article saying that covid-19 patients often die of pneumonia, and turning them on their sides relieves the most affected lobes and allows them to breathe more easily.  And there is an antiviral that looks promising.  All encouraging news.

 

If only it were that simple.

[alc13]

6 minutes ago, resistk said:

 

If only it were that simple.

I don't think I said it was.  I only meant to highlight a couple of areas that have shown some potential for improved treatments.  There is a lot that can be done while we wait for a vaccine, which is still not expected for at least another year.

[IB2]

5 minutes ago, alc13 said:

I don't think I said it was.  I only meant to highlight a couple of areas that have shown some potential for improved treatments.  There is a lot that can be done while we wait for a vaccine, which is still not expected for at least another year.

Of all the things under the patient’s control, making sure you are not overweight is probably the single biggest thing you can do to improve your likelihood of surviving the virus.  Giving up smoking would be a close second, and not drinking too much third.

Edited April 22, 2020 by IB2

[Solent Richard]

22 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

Everyone is banned from cruising,  the question is when they lift the ban will they treat over 70s differently.

 

The over 70s advice by the goverment in early March was an off the top of the head policy based on limited data, but reasonable advice at the time.

 

Everyone is equally susceptible to catching covid 19 , but not of being seriously ill. If you look at the data now you see there are many factors that lead to a higher death rate.

 

By far the most important is having pre existing conditions especially linked to heart or breathing,   irrespective of age

 

The others are

 

Being overweight (due to pressure on heart and lungs)

Age (due to decrease in immune system)

Being from the BAME communities. (Nobody knows why but seems real)

 

Age is only one of these secondary conditions , but as a lot of older people have pre-existing conditions so it's easy to confuse age with pre-exiting  conditions.  Unfortunately this makes it the easiest for politicians to latch on to in a sentimental way. They can say we are protecting our older vulnerable generation.

 

They would be crucified if they said overweight people shouldn't cruise or go out

Advising against an ethnic  group or groups would be illegal. 

 

So don't be surprised if the fit over 70s are unnecessarily advised to stay under lockdown for longer than general population 

 

 

Nice one Windsurfboy.

 

That's the nearest  any member has come to my 'It's not Rocket Science' comment at # 33.

[Solent Richard]

43 minutes ago, IB2 said:

Of all the things under the patient’s control, making sure you are not overweight is probably the single biggest thing you can do to improve your likelihood of surviving the virus.  Giving up smoking would be a close second, and not drinking too much third.

 

Hello Ventnor.

 

I did read earlier in the week that findings are suggesting that smokers actually have less chance on contracting the virus.

 

It figures really, their lungs have, over the years, built up a form of immunity.

 

Don't tell anyone I told you but a punt on BAT. Excuse the pun. 😉😉

[IB2]

24 minutes ago, Solent Richard said:

 

Hello Ventnor.

 

I did read earlier in the week that findings are suggesting that smokers actually have less chance on contracting the virus.

 

It figures really, their lungs have, over the years, built up a form of immunity.

 

Don't tell anyone I told you but a punt on BAT. Excuse the pun. 😉😉

If you get the virus, as a smoker, it will more likely be bad news.

[Solent Richard]

36 minutes ago, IB2 said:

If you get the virus, as a smoker, it will more likely be bad news.

 

Frankly, as a non-smoker, it would be bad news anyway. 

 

Fortunately my immune system is currently fortified with Chianti. 😁

 

[BklynBoy8]

1 hour ago, Solent Richard said:

 

Frankly, as a non-smoker, it would be bad news anyway. 

 

Fortunately my immune system is currently fortified with Chianti. 😁

 

Good Recommendation with Hi Ratings........Enjoy...

[ace2542]

On 4/22/2020 at 2:15 PM, alc13 said:

I don't think I said it was.  I only meant to highlight a couple of areas that have shown some potential for improved treatments.  There is a lot that can be done while we wait for a vaccine, which is still not expected for at least another year.

Oxford University is testing a vaccine right now. They have made a million doses and they wouldn't do that if they didn't think it would work considering the cost of making a million doses. It has gone straight to human trials and MIGHT be among the people by September with us Brits getting it first of course. But I am sure every spy agency in the world has 2 people within a mile of Oxford so they can steal the secret when the time comes rather than pay through the nose for it.

[IB2]

3 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

Oxford University is testing a vaccine right now. They have made a million doses and they wouldn't do that if they didn't think it would work considering the cost of making a million doses. It has gone straight to human trials and MIGHT be among the people by September with us Brits getting it first of course. But I am sure every spy agency in the world has 2 people within a mile of Oxford so they can steal the secret when the time comes rather than pay through the nose for it.

Oxford has said that if it works they will need to cover their costs, but aren't doing their work in anticipation of big profits.  A strength of our approach to health compared to the US is that it isn't entirely driven by financial greed.

[majortom10]

2 hours ago, ace2542 said:

Oxford University is testing a vaccine right now. They have made a million doses and they wouldn't do that if they didn't think it would work considering the cost of making a million doses. It has gone straight to human trials and MIGHT be among the people by September with us Brits getting it first of course. But I am sure every spy agency in the world has 2 people within a mile of Oxford so they can steal the secret when the time comes rather than pay through the nose for it.

A Professor  has said that they hope to make a million doses by September and IF it is successful to make it widely available in the Autumn but have admitted that this time is "highly ambitious" and could change.

Edited April 24, 2020 by majortom10

[PORT ROYAL]

3 hours ago, ace2542 said:

But I am sure every spy agency in the world has 2 people within a mile of Oxford so they can steal the secret when the time comes rather than pay through the nose for it.

 

Probably hacked their systems years ago, and now just sitting and watching everything being laid out, with no effort.

How?  Research fellows and doctorates from overseas doing studies on Oxford's premises.  Let me just plug in this device for a couple of minutes to allow permanent future access, as/when wished.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[exlondoner]

52 minutes ago, PORT ROYAL said:

 

Probably hacked their systems years ago, and now just sitting and watching everything being laid out, with no effort.

How?  Research fellows and doctorates from overseas doing studies on Oxford's premises.  Let me just plug in this device for a couple of minutes to allow permanent future access, as/when wished.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What a dismal view of international academic cooperation. I should have thought it was one of the greatest forces for good.