When will those over 70 be able to Cruise again?

[alc13]

4 hours ago, ace2542 said:

Oxford University is testing a vaccine right now. They have made a million doses and they wouldn't do that if they didn't think it would work considering the cost of making a million doses. It has gone straight to human trials and MIGHT be among the people by September with us Brits getting it first of course. But I am sure every spy agency in the world has 2 people within a mile of Oxford so they can steal the secret when the time comes rather than pay through the nose for it.

Very exciting news!  I wonder if they are using a better platform than the antiquated methods used for standard vaccines.

 

I doubt if they would try to keep any secrets, though.  Vaccines are a very low profit business.

[exlondoner]

28 minutes ago, alc13 said:

Very exciting news!  I wonder if they are using a better platform than the antiquated methods used for standard vaccines.

 

I doubt if they would try to keep any secrets, though.  Vaccines are a very low profit business.

 

I think the Oxford trials, though the first trials in Europe, are only one of over a hundred projects worldwide. For instance, I think they started some trials in Seattle a couple of weeks ago.

[ace2542]

2 minutes ago, exlondoner said:

 

I think the Oxford trials, though the first trials in Europe, are only one of over a hundred projects worldwide. For instance, I think they started some trials in Seattle a couple of weeks ago.

Once the first vaccine works and is proven surely there is no need for a second? The first one to make it gets the spoils whatever they may be.

[exlondoner]

1 minute ago, ace2542 said:

Once the first vaccine works and is proven surely there is no need for a second? The first one to make it gets the spoils whatever they may be.

 

The may not be the only factor. The Salk vaccine was the first effective polio vaccine, but ultimately not the one widely used. Ease and cost of production, extent of effectiveness, ease of administration, changes in the virus itself, and no doubt lots of other things I'm too ignorant to know may be factors.

[BlueRiband]

On 4/22/2020 at 4:13 AM, IB2 said:

....Despite Trump foolishly ramping that malaria drug as a treatment (which has led to overdoses and deaths both in the US and across the world), the latest study just published suggests (it was a non-randomised trial, so not conclusive) both that chloroquinine both makes no difference to the progress of the Coronavirus and risks side effects and excess death, particularly by aggravating any cardiac weaknesses.

Has hydroxychloroquine any therapeutic effect on COVID-19?  Inconclusive to date.  Is it safe?  According to a physician with 46 years experience in treating 2000 lupus patients and authoring 450 peer reviewed publications it is entirely safe.  Trump nor anyone else can scarcely find any profit in "ramping" a 55-year old generic drug. 

 

For those interested in vaccine trials, the US National Institute of Health has a website which lists the over 900 worldwide sites that have some type of clinical trial related to COVID-19.  There are filters where you can narrow it down to what interests you:

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/  

 

FWIW, the US vaccine trial is underway.  Study of 2019-nCoV Vaccine (mRNA-1273)

[exlondoner]

15 minutes ago, BlueRiband said:

Has hydroxychloroquine any therapeutic effect on COVID-19?  Inconclusive to date.  Is it safe?  According to a physician with 46 years experience in treating 2000 lupus patients and authoring 450 peer reviewed publications it is entirely safe.  Trump nor anyone else can scarcely find any profit in "ramping" a 55-year old generic drug. 

 

For those interested in vaccine trials, the US National Institute of Health has a website which lists the over 900 worldwide sites that have some type of clinical trial related to COVID-19.  There are filters where you can narrow it down to what interests you:

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/  

 

FWIW, the US vaccine trial is underway.  Study of 2019-nCoV Vaccine (mRNA-1273)

 

But, as used as an antimalarial, it has various possible side effects, according to the EMA, some of which are pretty nasty. At the very least, one should be wary.

[BlueRiband]

29 minutes ago, exlondoner said:

 

But, as used as an antimalarial, it has various possible side effects, according to the EMA, some of which are pretty nasty. At the very least, one should be wary.

Legitimate point but an effective treatment would be a game changer for the cruise industry.  It could mean the difference between an inconvenient visit to the medical center versus a medevac and/or the entire ship being barred from a port. 

 

When and if an effective vaccine is developed, it's speculative to anticipate if proof of vaccination could become a requirement for anyone to sail.  In the US there is a small but vocal anti-vaccination interest group.  The physician who published the now-withdrawn Lancet article alleging a link between autism and MMR vaccine is a martyr to these people.

[alc13]

2 hours ago, ace2542 said:

Once the first vaccine works and is proven surely there is no need for a second? The first one to make it gets the spoils whatever they may be.

There will be more than one, certainly.  And the more the better, considering how many doses will be needed.  I can't imagine one company being capable of manufacturing on a large enough scale to meet global needs. 

 

 

[alc13]

1 hour ago, BlueRiband said:

Has hydroxychloroquine any therapeutic effect on COVID-19?  Inconclusive to date.  Is it safe?  According to a physician with 46 years experience in treating 2000 lupus patients and authoring 450 peer reviewed publications it is entirely safe.  Trump nor anyone else can scarcely find any profit in "ramping" a 55-year old generic drug. 

 

For those interested in vaccine trials, the US National Institute of Health has a website which lists the over 900 worldwide sites that have some type of clinical trial related to COVID-19.  There are filters where you can narrow it down to what interests you:

https://www.clinicaltrials.gov/  

 

FWIW, the US vaccine trial is underway.  Study of 2019-nCoV Vaccine (mRNA-1273)

Great links, thanks.  I used to visit clinicaltrials.gov frequently in my working life.

 

Interesting to see how many therapeutic approaches are also being pursued.  In the end, a combination of effective treatment(s) and effective vaccine(s) will be the best outcome for all of us.

[alc13]

1 hour ago, exlondoner said:

 

But, as used as an antimalarial, it has various possible side effects, according to the EMA, some of which are pretty nasty. At the very least, one should be wary.

Very nasty, and one covid-19 clinical trial was halted because of side effects. 

[IB2]

5 minutes ago, alc13 said:

Very nasty, and one covid-19 clinical trial was halted because of side effects. 

One guy in Arizona and a stack of people in Nigeria have already died from overdosing on chloroquinine having heard Trump spouting off at his press conference.  It appears the drug has significant potential side effects including damage to the heart.

 

I fear after yesterday’s performance we are going to see people abusing bleach.

[alc13]

9 minutes ago, IB2 said:

One guy in Arizona and a stack of people in Nigeria have already died from overdosing on chloroquinine having heard Trump spouting off at his press conference.  It appears the drug has significant potential side effects including damage to the heart.

 

I fear after yesterday’s performance we are going to see people abusing bleach.

Shocking, wasn't it.

 

Bringing this back to cruising, it will be a combination of treatment + vaccine + public confidence that will revive the industry, and I for one can't wait.  We all need accurate information now, in order to make the best and safest decisions about how to get back to normal.

Edited April 24, 2020 by alc13

[MMDown Under]

On 4/14/2020 at 9:38 AM, bazzaw said:

I have now reached an age (73) and wife 66 and have  a few "Pre-existings" which means that Travel Insurance is getting out of hand cost-wise anyway. I am still fit and healthy - am a long distance runner and walk or run at least 5 klms everyday. BUT - am starting to think that perhaps this "International travel that we have been enjoying for the past 25 years is coming to an end. Living in Australia we always have to fly quite a way to even get started!! 

Maybe Cunard basing QE in Melbourne for part of the year have already recognised that many of their past Aussie passengers no longer wish to fly long haul to start a cruise. I think because so many of us have travelled long haul like you, for past 25 years, they have a ready made market in Australia and NZ, for cruises in the local area.  There is so much to see and do in Australasia, which remains untouched. 

Edited April 25, 2020 by MMDown Under

[resistk]

All passengers will likely need to produce a medical certificate they are fit to cruise.  Ponant already required this prior to COVID.  As to checking for COVID, the technology doesn't seem to exist, just as there is no way to tell who might be carrying flu and norovirus on board.

[BlueRiband]

3 hours ago, resistk said:

All passengers will likely need to produce a medical certificate they are fit to cruise.  Ponant already required this prior to COVID.  As to checking for COVID, the technology doesn't seem to exist, just as there is no way to tell who might be carrying flu and norovirus on board.

If it came to that, I wouldn't take the risk of being unable to get a scheduled medical appointment within the required pre-boarding window.   I'd be denied boarding and lose 100% of the fare.   Like other travel documentation, it would be entirely the responsibility of the passenger to have the required medical certificate.

Edited April 25, 2020 by BlueRiband

[navybankerteacher]

It is hard to see the cruise industry happily abandoning such a large chunk of their market (who may well be among the higher spenders).   Nor does it seem to make sense to apply a blanket age-70 cut off in the face of a disease which has taken many much younger while sparing a good number of the elderly.   Of course if it is shown that age alone is a primary factor, rather than the pre-conditions which frequently accompany age, then such a boundary can be set.   The logical path is to pinpoint those pre-conditions.

[IB2]

1 hour ago, navybankerteacher said:

It is hard to see the cruise industry happily abandoning such a large chunk of their market (who may well be among the higher spenders).   Nor does it seem to make sense to apply a blanket age-70 cut off in the face of a disease which has taken many much younger while sparing a good number of the elderly.   Of course if it is shown that age alone is a primary factor, rather than the pre-conditions which frequently accompany age, then such a boundary can be set.   The logical path is to pinpoint those pre-conditions.

But then it isn’t about their being happy, is it?  It is governments, ports, and worried potential passengers that need to be made happy.

 

Not that I think it will come to a blanket age related ban. The package of measures I am expecting is in my post above.

Edited April 26, 2020 by IB2

[Ray66]

Taken from the Princess forum:

 

On the Princess webinar I was on yesterday, Princess said that all cruiselines were working in collaboration with CLIA and CDC to come up with ONE universal policy regarding health and safety for cruisers. They stressed that it was important this be seen as a unified response and no single line would have a differing policy.

They also mentioned that none of the lines would be using age alone as a factor, since the more that is coming out about the virus, the more info they have that it isn't simply based on age.

[resistk]

6 hours ago, Ray66 said:

Taken from the Princess forum:

 

On the Princess webinar I was on yesterday, Princess said that all cruiselines were working in collaboration with CLIA and CDC to come up with ONE universal policy regarding health and safety for cruisers. They stressed that it was important this be seen as a unified response and no single line would have a differing policy.

They also mentioned that none of the lines would be using age alone as a factor, since the more that is coming out about the virus, the more info they have that it isn't simply based on age.

 

Not even the president of the United States knows anything about COVID, so how would CLIA?

[BlueRiband]

15 minutes ago, resistk said:

 

Not even the president of the United States knows anything about COVID, so how would CLIA?

I don't think that was really necessary.  He's there at all of the daily press briefings with this team.  (It's also the same president who involved private industry to develop high capacity COVID-19 testing and to make masks, gowns, and ventilators in the US because the manufacturing had largely been done in China.)

 

Remember it was the President who had to persuade the Governor of Florida to allow the Zaandam and Rotterdam to dock and disembark their passengers.

[resistk]

2 hours ago, BlueRiband said:

I don't think that was really necessary.  He's there at all of the daily press briefings with this team.  (It's also the same president who involved private industry to develop high capacity COVID-19 testing and to make masks, gowns, and ventilators in the US because the manufacturing had largely been done in China.)

 

Remember it was the President who had to persuade the Governor of Florida to allow the Zaandam and Rotterdam to dock and disembark their passengers.

 

No criticism intended; the point is nobody knows much of anything definitive about COVID, CLIA least of all.

[wenlyn]

In some ways we could do worse than just adjust to living with increased risk. 13 out of 712 people died of CV19 on Diamond Princess. I'm sure there will be treatments and vaccines developed over time but the more understanding we gain about this the harder it seems to be to pin it down. It's not really highly lethal (well it is but a 95% survival rate is a lot better than some cancer & strokes) it seems perhaps more likely it causes death by  triggering underlying problems that people may or may not have been aware were weaknesses? Given the speed at which we can grow population these days it might be we just have to adjust to living with the expectation and respect for death that we lived with 50 or so years ago before we had defeated and contained so many diseases. 

[resistk]

20 minutes ago, wenlyn said:

13 out of 712 people died of CV19 on Diamond Princess.

 

Those are odds 1.8% of dying on your cruise if you catch COVID

[Jack E Dawson]

I think until such time as there is a vaccine and/or a highly effective treatment for C-19, the cruise lines have an extremely difficult task in figuring out how to resume operations. They just cannot afford to start sailing again only to have onboard outbreaks and nightmare cruises hitting the headlines again. Many older customers (yes, I resemble that remark) are already leary of getting back onboard pre-vaccine. Hearing new stories of ships sailing in circles, being denied ports with passengers dying onboard will pretty much do the industry in for a long time, at lest with regards to older passengers. However, with that said, I think it is going to be financially difficult for cruise lines to keep ships docked until sometime in 2021 when a vaccine will likely hopefully be available. One option the cruise lines could use is the Abbot Labs C-19 test that can be administered and results obtained in 15 minutes or less. It is currently being used here in the Chicago area with 15,000-20,000 people a day being tested. Passengers and crew could be required to take this test at the boarding terminal. 

One bit of good news is that there are hundreds of initiatives, going on right now by universities and drug companies, to develop treatments and a vaccine. Already, a number of vaccines are in phase one (of 3 phases) of human trials. In the US, UK, EU and China, the governments are funding inventory productions right now of these potential vaccines, even though most of these inventories will have to be destroyed, so that when the successful vaccine is developed, the rollout can begin immediately.

In the mean time, thank you to all those heroes who are putting themselves at risk to keep us safe, treat the sick and put food on our tables.

Jack

[Windsurfboy]

29 minutes ago, resistk said:

 

Those are odds 1.8% of dying on your cruise if you catch COVID

 

54 minutes ago, wenlyn said:

In some ways we could do worse than just adjust to living with increased risk. 13 out of 712 people died of CV19 on Diamond Princess. 

28 minutes ago, resistk said:

 

Those are odds 1.8% of dying on your cruise if you catch COVID

 

1958 passengers out of  2670 didn't  catch covid 19, you could be amongst one of those.

 

The real question will be will lessons be learnt to reduce the spread within ships. I'll let others be the guinea pigs in 2021. The way the 2021 ships are filling up with people using FCC , social distance won't change.