When will those over 70 be able to Cruise again?

[navybankerteacher]

On 4/24/2020 at 8:27 AM, ace2542 said:

Once the first vaccine works and is proven surely there is no need for a second? The first one to make it gets the spoils whatever they may be.

Unlikely —- it is very rare for one breakthrough in any field to be the last one.  The Salk polio vaccine was followed by the Sabin (sp?); the hard rubber tire on a steel wheel by the pneumatic tire; the wood-burning locomotive by the electric.

[ace2542]

On 4/27/2020 at 3:38 PM, wenlyn said:

In some ways we could do worse than just adjust to living with increased risk. 13 out of 712 people died of CV19 on Diamond Princess. I'm sure there will be treatments and vaccines developed over time but the more understanding we gain about this the harder it seems to be to pin it down. It's not really highly lethal (well it is but a 95% survival rate is a lot better than some cancer & strokes) it seems perhaps more likely it causes death by  triggering underlying problems that people may or may not have been aware were weaknesses? Given the speed at which we can grow population these days it might be we just have to adjust to living with the expectation and respect for death that we lived with 50 or so years ago before we had defeated and contained so many diseases. 

The situation on Diamond princess was handled very poorly they should have evacuated the ship on a nationality by nationality basis into quarantine which would have greatly reduced the infection rate and probably the death rate

[Empehi]

By the Fall, I feel the medical community will have a pretty good handle on the specific properties of the Covid-19 virus.

Only then, will anyone be able to make decisions how to eradicate the virus to a point where people will be comfortable to travel. We may never have a vaccine. Perhaps the vast majority of the population will build up anti-bodies to the virus.  I know many people that were very sick last December & January ..... perhaps they has Covid-19 and now have the anti-bodies. Healthy people have to be tested for this. Maybe, just maybe there is a small group of people with certain genetic characteristics that are extremely sensitive to the virus. This is what time will tell.

 

 

[Trevor33]

Is it safe to be on a ship in close proximity to 2,000 plus other people? How relaxing will the cruise be? How can 2,000 people be kept 2 metres apart. How will people feel when someone accidentally sneezes? How long will it take to disembark to go ashore in a port and how welcoming will the locals be as we all stream ashore?

[resistk]

51 minutes ago, Trevor33 said:

Is it safe to be on a ship in close proximity to 2,000 plus other people? How relaxing will the cruise be? How can 2,000 people be kept 2 metres apart. How will people feel when someone accidentally sneezes? How long will it take to disembark to go ashore in a port and how welcoming will the locals be as we all stream ashore?

 

If COVID disappears and does not reappear for the 2020-2021 flu season, cruising may come back in style.  Until then, people will stay away in droves. The cruise lines that think they will be back to normal operations in September are delusional.  Unfortunately, the industry will be decimated but ultimately no one can "force" people back on ships after all the negative publicity. I am holding $2500 in Cunard credits but if I had to use them this year, I would write them off instead. Which begs the question, will Cunard still be around in Summer 2021 if the ships remain laid up until then?

 

 

[resistk]

On 4/27/2020 at 11:40 AM, Windsurfboy said:

 The way the 2021 ships are filling up with people using FCC , social distance won't change. 

 

 

 

People will stay away FCC or not, if the COVID threat remains.  To stay solvent, the lines need new money, not FCCs already spent.

[longton]

The Carnival share price had increased 25% this week so clearly some people are optimistic cruising will begin again. I think the company wil survive.

 

We have FCC of £7,500 and have identified itineraries we like in 2021.

[resistk]

1 hour ago, longton said:

The Carnival share price had increased 25% this week so clearly some people are optimistic cruising will begin again. I think the company wil survive.

 

We have FCC of £7,500 and have identified itineraries we like in 2021.

 

True but oil stocks have been up for the same reason, short term speculation and flippers, which never bodes well because the price then crashes later.

[navybankerteacher]

6 hours ago, resistk said:

 

If COVID disappears and does not reappear for the 2020-2021 flu season, cruising may come back in style.  Until then, people will stay away in droves. The cruise lines that think they will be back to normal operations in September are delusional.  Unfortunately, the industry will be decimated but ultimately no one can "force" people back on ships after all the negative publicity. I am holding $2500 in Cunard credits but if I had to use them this year, I would write them off instead. Which begs the question, will Cunard still be around in Summer 2021 if the ships remain laid up until then?

 

 

If it takes a couple of years for cruising activity to pick up, it is possible that today’s Carnival - including their brands, such as Cunard, will have gone through bankruptcy reorganization— but the name Cunard is almost certain to survive - probably along with its cruising style — the name alone will carry value that a reorganized corporate entity would surely want to keep. Most US airlines have gone through bankruptcy - American, Delta, United - and their well known names survive.

 

Sure, it would be tough for the equity owners of the lines if they are not “bailed out”, as many posters seem to hope —- but for cruise passengers it will make little difference:  when cruising is possible again;  cruises will be offered - and whoever gets the dividend income from ships carrying the Cunard brand name will make no difference to the posters here.

[resistk]

11 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Most US airlines have gone through bankruptcy - American, Delta, United - and their well known names survive.

 

They are survivors, most have gone the way Pan American, TWA, Braniff, etc.

 

What happens to billions of dollars in CCL FCCs in a bankruptcy?  They will be wiped out as unsecured creditors, that's what.  Likewise the ordinary shareholder's won't get much either. On the other hand the Saudi's who just lent billions to CCL, likely have secured loans. As for Cunard, who knows, many legacy lines have gone under and not been resurrected: White Star, Union Castle, Italian Lines, , United States Lines, etc.

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by resistk

[IB2]

1 hour ago, resistk said:

 

They are survivors, most have gone the way Pan American, TWA, Braniff, etc.

 

What happens to billions of dollars in CCL FCCs in a bankruptcy?  They will be wiped out as unsecured creditors, that's what.  Likewise the ordinary shareholder's won't get much either. On the other hand the Saudi's who just lent billions to CCL, likely have secured loans. As for Cunard, who knows, many legacy lines have gone under and not been resurrected: White Star, Union Castle, Italian Lines, , United States Lines, etc.

 

In Carnival/Cunard’s case we already know that the loans have been secured with the ships.

[Ray66]

Modified Cruise Ship Regulations No Longer Require Doctor Notes For Passengers Over 70

 

Cruisers over 70 years of age are being reassured they will not have to provide doctor's notes in order to be able to cruise, once operations resume.

The requirement was instituted by the Cruise Lines International Association (CLIA), the industry's governing body, shortly before cruise operations were suspended in March due to the ongoing COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic.

 

https://www.cruisecritic.co.uk/news/5322/

[ExArkie]

9 hours ago, resistk said:

 

They are survivors, most have gone the way Pan American, TWA, Braniff, etc.

 

Actually, a form of Braniff is still around, just not flying airplanes. The company that remained after bankruptcy merged with Hyatt sometime in the early 1980s and continues as a business entity, mostly for retail and licensing purposes. It still holds its own intellectual property, as does what still exists as a successor to Pan Am.

 

Pan Am was acquired by Delta, TWA by American. Braniff was split into various portions, Eastern Airlines took over some routes, with that airline itself being subsumed into American and Delta. Even American today is not what it was when I flew them in 1978 - they are essentially what used to be USAirways, which was taken over by American West earlier and had, in turn, been formed by merger of several smaller carriers. An so on...

 

Point being that, while certain business entities have either been acquired by financially stronger companies and others have had their assets liquidated (anyone remember Ozark Airlines?), it is rare that some form of the defunct company's operations do not continue in another form. Our favorite brand and experience may go away (I loved Continental Airlines), but the service continues in some form.

 

I think it is early to have any idea how this is going to shake down for the cruise industry, but I'll continue to watch what does.

[resistk]

8 hours ago, IB2 said:

In Carnival/Cunard’s case we already know that the loans have been secured with the ships.

 

I can imagine on one scenario the Queen Mary will soon be doing the hadj route - Mumbai to Jeddah instead of Transatlantics.

 

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/new-haj-policy-modi-government-planning-15-cruise-trips-for-pilgrims-between-mumbai-and-jeddah/articleshow/58634990.cms

 

Edited April 30, 2020 by resistk

[Jack E Dawson]

10 hours ago, resistk said:

 

They are survivors, most have gone the way Pan American, TWA, Braniff, etc.

 

What happens to billions of dollars in CCL FCCs in a bankruptcy?  They will be wiped out as unsecured creditors, that's what.  Likewise the ordinary shareholder's won't get much either. On the other hand the Saudi's who just lent billions to CCL, likely have secured loans. As for Cunard, who knows, many legacy lines have gone under and not been resurrected: White Star, Union Castle, Italian Lines, , United States Lines, etc.

 

If a particular cruise line is forced to file for bankruptcy, FCC's that have been issued to customers for cancelled cruises may not be wiped out. If the cruise line is filing for bankruptcy reorganization, the senior creditors will be the ones to approve any reorganization plan. If they think it is in their best interest to protect their investments and help ensure a successful recovery, they can choose to honor those FCC's. I would be very surprised if they DIDN'T honor FCC's. All it would take is for one line to set the precedent, then the rest of the lines would almost have to follow suit. Anyway, that's my theory but I'm hopeful it won't come to that.

 

Jack

[navybankerteacher]

6 minutes ago, Jack E Dawson said:

If a particular cruise line is forced to file for bankruptcy, FCC's that have been issued to customers for cancelled cruises may not be wiped out. If the cruise line is filing for bankruptcy reorganization, the senior creditors will be the ones to approve any reorganization plan. If they think it is in their best interest to protect their investments and help ensure a successful recovery, they can choose to honor those FCC's. I would be very surprised if they DIDN'T honor FCC's. All it would take is for one line to set the precedent, then the rest of the lines would almost have to follow suit. Anyway, that's my theory but I'm hopeful it won't come to that.

 

Jack

There certainly is precedent - airlines going through reorganization typically had their frequent flyer benefits survive.  The creditors who approve the plan realize that any such individual consumer-based enterprise has to make such a concession.

[Covepointcruiser]

I am ready to go as soon as they start sailing.   I am not at high risk so if I catch it, if I haven’t already had it, I will deal with it.   When there is a vaccine I will certainly get it.  Imagine if you are in a high risk group you will feel differently.

[majortom10]

Seeing the differing ages from young to old and some that do not have underlying health conditions dying from covid-19 I think we are all at risk and think it is out of our own hands to deal with it especially in the excellent hands in the UK with the NHS but certainly dont want to risk catching it in middle of ocean and with all respect to medical staff on ships limited staff and equipment.

[Trevor33]

Perhaps the ships will have to employ more than one Doctor and a couple of nurses in future and extend the Hospital facilities on board. They may even be required to leave a set number of "Isolation" cabins in case of a second spike of infections that is spoken about. Whilst this all seems doom and gloom it has to be taken seriously. Ships cross oceans and there are certain places where Medivacs off ships cannot be done. No one wants to be anywhere there is an outbreak let alone on a ship in the middle of the ocean with thousands in close proximity. A holiday is about relaxing, and feeling free to do what you would like. It cannot be fun trying to social distance or wearing a face mask on holiday can it?

[resistk]

2 hours ago, Trevor33 said:

Perhaps the ships will have to employ more than one Doctor and a couple of nurses in future and extend the Hospital facilities on board.

 

But it there was COVID outbreak on board, the entire ship would be quarantined and denied docking.  Having a bigger medical facility won't solve that problem. I don't see how cruises can operate unless COVID is no longer viewed as an epidemic?

[MelbTone]

On one of the TV current affairs shows last night (can't remember which) they had a piece about cruise ships and CV. It was alleged that cruise companies regard their medical facilities as a profit centre: the interviewee had run up a bill of $8K+ before being taken off the ship. I've also heard reports here of Australian cruises and locals with minor ailments waiting until the next shore visit so they can then find a bulk-bill (no charge) GP. Perhaps cruise companies should be required to run their medical facilities as a no-cost service to encourage prompt reporting, though that could well lead to people then saving up their medical issues until they get on board.

 

I did the behind-the-scenes tour on my last QE cruise and to my non-medical eyes the facilities looked good: two doctors, several wards and an intensive care unit, though this is obviously set up for the one at a time heart attack, broken limb etc, not an epidemic.

[david,Mississauga]

13 hours ago, MelbTone said:

On one of the TV current affairs shows last night (can't remember which) they had a piece about cruise ships and CV. It was alleged that cruise companies regard their medical facilities as a profit centre: the interviewee had run up a bill of $8K+ before being taken off the ship. I've also heard reports here of Australian cruises and locals with minor ailments waiting until the next shore visit so they can then find a bulk-bill (no charge) GP. Perhaps cruise companies should be required to run their medical facilities as a no-cost service to encourage prompt reporting, though that could well lead to people then saving up their medical issues until they get on board.

 

I did the behind-the-scenes tour on my last QE cruise and to my non-medical eyes the facilities looked good: two doctors, several wards and an intensive care unit, though this is obviously set up for the one at a time heart attack, broken limb etc, not an epidemic.

 

It certainly is a profit centre.  In the late 1980s our son was treated on Cunard's QE2. The bill for the doctor's visit and medication was US$10. Using the Bank of Canada's inflation calculator the current equivalent would be about $21. On a P&O ship in the early 1990s the bill for similar treatment was in £, but the equivalent of Can.$10.  This would be $16.60 today. The last I heard was the current  charge for a doctor's visit on Carnival-owned ships is US$90 plus medication, tests, etc.

 

Perhaps it is just as well that modern ships don't have an operating theatre.

[alc13]

Very positive news today about vaccines in early human testing stages.  Possibly optimistic, but forecasts for use by late 2020.  Maybe a Spring 2021 booking will be possible after all!

[BklynBoy8]

5 minutes ago, alc13 said:

Very positive news today about vaccines in early human testing stages.  Possibly optimistic, but forecasts for use by late 2020.  Maybe a Spring 2021 booking will be possible after all!

Hi alc13,

So glad you are looking to the future. 

 

We are so glad that we transferred our 4th of July this year to next year sailing to see how things go. We feel like a fish out of water and can't wait to feel the Mary break the waves and that Sunshine beating on the open decks.

 

Find a good cruise to enjoy!