(SPECULATION) Future of the Fantasy Class

[Aoumd]

Following the news across all modes of travel, it appears the travel industry will take longer to recover from the economic fallout of the coronavirus than it took to get into this mess.  I don't think it's a stretch to say that once the industry can sail again, cruises will take longer to recover as nearly 100% of cruise passengers are leisure travelers (vs. business and other travel on airlines and in hotels), and so many of the people who had been cruising have lost their jobs or had wages reduced significantly; a large percentage of the formerly cruising public will not be able to afford to sail again for several years.  Plus there's a percentage of the public (disproportionately not those who post here) who would have been open to first-time cruising, who will now be leery of trying cruises out for the next few years given some of the recent press coverage across multiple parent Carnival corporation ships (Diamond Princess, Zaandam, etc.).

 

Given a) this reality, b) their age, c) their highest per-berth costs in the fleet (assuming that new ships get bigger and more efficient from technological advances and economies of scale), combined with d) the need for Carnival to offer lower rates when they do reopen to cruising even to get fewer passengers than before, I am getting curious if we may see Carnival soon retire the Fantasy Class.

From a business perspective, a retirement of the Fantasy Class checks a lot of boxes; it would a) drop fleetwide capacity to a point where supply more closely tracks demand, b) allow Carnival to build back that dropped capacity in the future through new, more efficient ships entering service at later dates which would coincide with when demand bounces back (consider: Mardi Gras and her unnamed sister under construction already have nearly 2/3 of the capacity of the entire Fantasy Class, and while Carnival won't be executing the third Excellence Class option anytime soon, when they are ready that third ship would recover nearly all remaining Fantasy Class capacity).  Also, c) it's consistent with what the airlines are doing...while the entire cruise fleet is parked similar to most of the major airlines' fleets now, American, Delta and others have also used this opportunity to retire their oldest aircraft fleets permanently.  The smaller homeports that currently have Fantasy Class ships may not be able to profitably support year-round ships for the next few years; such a retirement decision may leave places like Charleston and Jacksonville with seasonal sailings, or LA with one larger ship doing 3/4 night cruises instead of the Inspiration / Imagination tag-team duo.

From a cruise experience perspective, I'd be sad to see them go.  The Fantasy-class Fascination was my first cruise, and I have nothing but fond memories on that sailing plus my second Fantasy-class sailing on Ecstasy.  But the Fantasy is nearing 30 years of age and the others aren't much further behind...an eternity in flagship cruise brand service; Jubilee, Holiday and Celebration lasted 20-25 before being downshifted to other brands or sold, while Royal has retired ships built around the same time (Monarch, Splendour, Legend of the Seas).

I guess the real question that will drive this, which no one outside of those at Carnival with proprietary information knows, is: Is the cost of running a Fantasy Class ship -- likely a higher cost per berth than any other fleet type -- going to be recovered by the depressed fares per berth which Carnival will have to offer to get people back on ships again?  If the lower rates (plus on board spending) still more than clear costs, then this is a non-issue...aside from any plans Carnival may already have to replace older ships.

 

OK that's my ramble, what are your thoughts?

[Essiesmom]

People have been expecting Carnival to sell off the Fantasy class for more than 10 years.  But I think they may be the first ships to resume sailing when things calm down.  Why?  They serve drive-to ports, several of which cannot handle the larger ships due to bridges.  they are smaller, and require less crew.  It going to be nearly as arduous a task task to fully crew the fleet after they can resume as it was to get them home.  Fantasy class are paid for.  EM

[Aoumd]

5 minutes ago, Essiesmom said:

People have been expecting Carnival to sell off the Fantasy class for more than 10 years.  But I think they may be the first ships to resume sailing when things calm down.  Why?  They serve drive-to ports, several of which cannot handle the larger ships due to bridges.  they are smaller, and require less crew.  It going to be nearly as arduous a task task to fully crew the fleet after they can resume as it was to get them home.  Fantasy class are paid for.  EM

Good point on small ports being “drive to,” in light of the current rules about flying and cruises.  I should say my entire post is predicated on an assumption that the fly-to-cruise business model can resume not too long after the ships start sailing again.

[Tapi]

 If Fantasy class ships are paid for, it may be financially feasible to continue operating these ships, even if they aren’t sailing at capacity, or if they are sailing at deeply reduced fares for a while. If Carnival can attract enough people with reduced fares, they can generate extra revenue from onboard spending. 
 

That aside, I think that keeping these ships operating from “drive to” ports may be key to Carnival’s recovery. Let me explain. I believe that people will continue cruising and vacationing, but they may set aside a smaller budget than in the past (either because they took a pay cut, lost income, or want to be more conservative with their spending). Someone who had previously budgeted to fly to Miami/Ft. Lauderdale to board a newer ship on a longer itinerary may now be budgeting less, and looking at driving to Jacksonville, Mobile or Charleston to take a shorter and more inexpensive cruise. At the same time, people who used to sail on more expensive cruise lines may now be looking at budget friendly Carnival for a future vacation.

 

Being a price leader, I believe that Carnival will greatly benefit once cruising resumes. It may be the “go to” cruise line for many on a tighter budget. 

[Purvis1231]

My guess is that Carnival will try to continue sailing them in the short term but if they cannot attract enough customers then some ships will be docked. But it could be possible that some ships will never sail again if Carnival specially those that sail from ports with larger ships. I have been pessimistic about the future of cruising but it does appear Carnival has got enough financing to hold on if they can get the passengers back. 

Edited April 16, 2020 by Purvis1231
typo

[PhillyFan33579]

Lots of good thought provoking posts in this thread. The reason I think Fantasy class ships will still be around for awhile is due to several ports like Tampa that cannot support larger ships due to bridge issues. If they did retire/sell all their Fantasy class ships, they could possibly deploy their 4 spirit class ships to ports with bridge issues. 

[Aoumd]

29 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Lots of good thought provoking posts in this thread. The reason I think Fantasy class ships will still be around for awhile is due to several ports like Tampa that cannot support larger ships due to bridge issues. If they did retire/sell all their Fantasy class ships, they could possibly deploy their 4 spirit class ships to ports with bridge issues. 

 

That's what I am thinking, since the nature of the Zaandam and Diamond Princess issues may make the longer "Journeys" type cruises to further-out ports somewhat less appealing, you could see them deployed closer to home.  Also, of course, Tampa could just go from two ships -- a Fantasy and a Spirit Class -- to one, the Spirit Class, if CCL is responding to a global drop in demand.

 

And yes, thank you everyone so far for your good thought provoking replies!!!

Edited April 17, 2020 by Aoumd

[BlerkOne]

I expect Carnival to push out new builds and Sunshines as far as possible. Fantasy class are paid for and can access more ports than the larger ships.

 

The newest ships are huge and very limited in home port options - LNG is only getting started and has limited availability.

 

Fantasy class have some of the least expensive cruises and having reduced capacity, easier to fill. I don't see them going anywhere.

 

Financially RCL and NCL are worse off, and I think they might be more likely to start mothballing ships, if not dumping them.

[HectorAchilleus]

I would think that the Fantasy class ships would have a great amount of appeal to those (such as myself) who want to avoid crowded huge ships or ships that have been refitted to cram in moe people. Even before the COVID-19 issue, I was through with ships such as Sunshine and Vista. 

[Joebucks]

I actually think this might be a lifeline to keep the Fantasy class afloat longer. There's a lot going on right now. A real lot. We're probably going to see a pause in new ships and refurbs and maximizing the existing fleet as they need to stabilize their financials. I just don't see how retiring all of those ships would benefit them at the moment, especially when the prospect of someone buying them is down.

 

Knowing how many people think off of perceptions, I could also see a small surge in popularity for the smaller ships after all of this.

[jimbo5544]

13 hours ago, Tapi said:

 If Fantasy class ships are paid for, it may be financially feasible to continue operating these ships, even if they aren’t sailing at capacity, or if they are sailing at deeply reduced fares for a while. If Carnival can attract enough people with reduced fares, they can generate extra revenue from onboard spending. 
 

That aside, I think that keeping these ships operating from “drive to” ports may be key to Carnival’s recovery. Let me explain. I believe that people will continue cruising and vacationing, but they may set aside a smaller budget than in the past (either because they took a pay cut, lost income, or want to be more conservative with their spending). Someone who had previously budgeted to fly to Miami/Ft. Lauderdale to board a newer ship on a longer itinerary may now be budgeting less, and looking at driving to Jacksonville, Mobile or Charleston to take a shorter and more inexpensive cruise. At the same time, people who used to sail on more expensive cruise lines may now be looking at budget friendly Carnival for a future vacation.

 

Being a price leader, I believe that Carnival will greatly benefit once cruising resumes. It may be the “go to” cruise line for many on a tighter budget. 

Their were never any notes on any Fantasy class ship

[Butterbean1000]

13 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Lots of good thought provoking posts in this thread. The reason I think Fantasy class ships will still be around for awhile is due to several ports like Tampa that cannot support larger ships due to bridge issues. If they did retire/sell all their Fantasy class ships, they could possibly deploy their 4 spirit class ships to ports with bridge issues. 

I know of two ports with bridges issues, Tampa and Jacksonville.   Are there others?  I know Charleston has an issue with large ships, But I think that's due to depth of the port.

 

[some_body]

13 minutes ago, Butterbean1000 said:

I know of two ports with bridges issues, Tampa and Jacksonville.   Are there others?  I know Charleston has an issue with large ships, But I think that's due to depth of the port.

 

Baltimore has a bridge as well.

 

Im not going to claim to be an expert on CCL operations, but I doubt they would keep a ship operational simply because it is paid for.   A ship is an asset, and could just as easily be sold to raise cash, avoid future operating expenses, etc.   

[LMaxwell]

Having assets free and clear not only helps balance Carnivals books, they may be necessary to exist in order to borrow more money in the future and more valuable to them than a straight sale. 

[Butterbean1000]

30 minutes ago, some_body said:

Baltimore has a bridge as well.

 

Im not going to claim to be an expert on CCL operations, but I doubt they would keep a ship operational simply because it is paid for.   A ship is an asset, and could just as easily be sold to raise cash, avoid future operating expenses, etc.   

I as well am no expert on how the cruise lines operate, but I don't see other cruise lines being in the market to purchase ships any time soon. The industry as a whole has been adversely affected. I see a lengthy recovery ahead.  I plan to do my part.  I have a cruise booked and a 2nd in the works.

 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

Can't speak to the specifics of the Fantasy class, but my money is on a number of Carnival, Royal and NCL ships doing one-way to the Alang beach over the next couple of years. 
 

Airlines aren't just parking hundreds of jets, they're also early-retiring some entire models. AND postponing new orders.   (Regardless of how you feel about airlines, they are a far more essential part of the economy. They'll be phasing operations back in long before the cruise lines will even be thinking about new cruises). 
 

Meanwhile, anyone counting on seeing new-builds in the cruise business really ought to rethink that idea. If all three of the major lines survive the next 12 months it will be a nautical miracle - none of them will be in position to upgrade their fleets.

 

On a personal level, I might like the Fantasy class - we're much bigger fans of small and mid-sized ships, and have zero attraction to the mega-behemoths. But Carnival presumably will make its decisions based on ship-by-ship operating costs and prospective revenue.

Edited April 17, 2020 by EscapeFromConnecticut

[FiredogCruiser]

Just a guess, but I would think the Fantasy and Spirit class ships will be the first to resume sailing because:

a. They are smaller, and would be at higher full rates in a reduced market

b. As someone else pointed out they are available to more drive to ports

c. Not all ports will come back on line at the same time due to lack of shore side preparedness. Smaller ships therefore would have more flexibility to construct itineraries around available open ports.

d. I believe a certain portion of the cruising public will gravitate towards smaller ships with less people and more public space per passenger. One of the reasons the Spirit class was my favorite before this crises.

e. Smaller ships require fewer crew to fully staff

[BlerkOne]

AS shipyards are currently shutdown delaying capital expenditures and new builds should not be a problem.

[quattrohead]

I agree on the Fantasy class ships.

Went on the Paradise last year and was very surprised about how much I liked it.

Previous Carnival adventure was the Triumph 3 weeks before it "blew up" 🆘🤪

[Lee Cruiser]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

AS shipyards are currently shutdown delaying capital expenditures and new builds should not be a problem.

 

Work on the Mardi Gras is still continuing, so that shipyard is not shut down.  Matt Mitchum (Cruise Director) had a post and video about it this morning.

[Lee Cruiser]

I don't see Carnival doing away with them right now for many of the same reasons listed above.  Our first two cruises were on Fantasy class ships, but we are platinum now and haven't been on one since those first two.  Mobile is a pretty easy drive for us.  But we prefer balcony cabins and those are very limited on Fantasy class ships.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Lee Cruiser

[grandmarnnurse]

19 hours ago, Aoumd said:

Following the news across all modes of travel, it appears the travel industry will take longer to recover from the economic fallout of the coronavirus than it took to get into this mess.  I don't think it's a stretch to say that once the industry can sail again, cruises will take longer to recover as nearly 100% of cruise passengers are leisure travelers (vs. business and other travel on airlines and in hotels), and so many of the people who had been cruising have lost their jobs or had wages reduced significantly; a large percentage of the formerly cruising public will not be able to afford to sail again for several years.  Plus there's a percentage of the public (disproportionately not those who post here) who would have been open to first-time cruising, who will now be leery of trying cruises out for the next few years given some of the recent press coverage across multiple parent Carnival corporation ships (Diamond Princess, Zaandam, etc.).

 

Given a) this reality, b) their age, c) their highest per-berth costs in the fleet (assuming that new ships get bigger and more efficient from technological advances and economies of scale), combined with d) the need for Carnival to offer lower rates when they do reopen to cruising even to get fewer passengers than before, I am getting curious if we may see Carnival soon retire the Fantasy Class.

From a business perspective, a retirement of the Fantasy Class checks a lot of boxes; it would a) drop fleetwide capacity to a point where supply more closely tracks demand, b) allow Carnival to build back that dropped capacity in the future through new, more efficient ships entering service at later dates which would coincide with when demand bounces back (consider: Mardi Gras and her unnamed sister under construction already have nearly 2/3 of the capacity of the entire Fantasy Class, and while Carnival won't be executing the third Excellence Class option anytime soon, when they are ready that third ship would recover nearly all remaining Fantasy Class capacity).  Also, c) it's consistent with what the airlines are doing...while the entire cruise fleet is parked similar to most of the major airlines' fleets now, American, Delta and others have also used this opportunity to retire their oldest aircraft fleets permanently.  The smaller homeports that currently have Fantasy Class ships may not be able to profitably support year-round ships for the next few years; such a retirement decision may leave places like Charleston and Jacksonville with seasonal sailings, or LA with one larger ship doing 3/4 night cruises instead of the Inspiration / Imagination tag-team duo.

From a cruise experience perspective, I'd be sad to see them go.  The Fantasy-class Fascination was my first cruise, and I have nothing but fond memories on that sailing plus my second Fantasy-class sailing on Ecstasy.  But the Fantasy is nearing 30 years of age and the others aren't much further behind...an eternity in flagship cruise brand service; Jubilee, Holiday and Celebration lasted 20-25 before being downshifted to other brands or sold, while Royal has retired ships built around the same time (Monarch, Splendour, Legend of the Seas).

I guess the real question that will drive this, which no one outside of those at Carnival with proprietary information knows, is: Is the cost of running a Fantasy Class ship -- likely a higher cost per berth than any other fleet type -- going to be recovered by the depressed fares per berth which Carnival will have to offer to get people back on ships again?  If the lower rates (plus on board spending) still more than clear costs, then this is a non-issue...aside from any plans Carnival may already have to replace older ships.

 

OK that's my ramble, what are your thoughts?

In my opinion, these smaller ships may be their salvation. I’d bet they are going to start cruising with a reduced amount of passengers onboard. Not because people will be afraid to book (and many will be) but because Carnival will reduce the number of bookings they will allow per ship to lessen the crowd factor, and for people to still maintain some level of distancing. This virus is not going to just go away when cruising starts up again. Cruise lines need to be proactive in whatever they can do to lessen infection risk. I have a cruise booked in January on the Freedom, and although it’s not a small ship, it is smaller than the Breeze, Magic, and some of the newer ships. Are they going to sail a huge ship at half capacity? Maybe, but I’d bet the smaller ships will be the ones returning first. But that’s just my opinion. I also think that once a vaccine becomes available, they just might require proof of it before boarding. I don’t see that as so far fetched. My hubby already now has to provide a Fit To Cruise letter from his Dr, as he’s over 70, so this is just one more needed requirement in the age of COVID-19. 

[Essiesmom]

6 hours ago, Butterbean1000 said:

I as well am no expert on how the cruise lines operate, but I don't see other cruise lines being in the market to purchase ships any time soon. The industry as a whole has been adversely affected. I see a lengthy recovery ahead.  I plan to do my part.  I have a cruise booked and a 2nd in the works.

 

I have thought this from the beginning.  The creditors will bend over backward to keep the cruise lines from declaring bankruptcy, as who is going to be able to buy the ships if they have to liquidate?  Everyone is in the same boat/ship, so to speak.  But there may be interesting shufflings in the long term.  When the luxury lines began to expand, and new lines formed (Viking Ocean) with smaller ships, I thought there would be mass market lines salivating, waiting for those lines to go under so they could gobble up the new, smaller ships.  Just like in 2001 when Renaissance went under.  Those R class ships are still in demand.  Some lines like to have a smaller ship for exotic itineraries.  HAL with Prinsendam, which they reluctantly shed last year; Princess with Pacific Princess (one of the R class).  We could have an interesting several years ahead of us.  EM

[Butterbean1000]

2 hours ago, grandmarnnurse said:

In my opinion, these smaller ships may be their salvation. I’d bet they are going to start cruising with a reduced amount of passengers onboard. Not because people will be afraid to book (and many will be) but because Carnival will reduce the number of bookings they will allow per ship to lessen the crowd factor, and for people to still maintain some level of distancing. This virus is not going to just go away when cruising starts up again. Cruise lines need to be proactive in whatever they can do to lessen infection risk. I have a cruise booked in January on the Freedom, and although it’s not a small ship, it is smaller than the Breeze, Magic, and some of the newer ships. Are they going to sail a huge ship at half capacity? Maybe, but I’d bet the smaller ships will be the ones returning first. But that’s just my opinion. I also think that once a vaccine becomes available, they just might require proof of it before boarding. I don’t see that as so far fetched. My hubby already now has to provide a Fit To Cruise letter from his Dr, as he’s over 70, so this is just one more needed requirement in the age of COVID-19. 

I cant see private businesses requiring vaccinations.  I hope not anyway.  This would open the door to requiring shots for everything from flu to herpes, pneumonia, hepatitis.  The list is endless. 

[grandmarnnurse]

28 minutes ago, Butterbean1000 said:

I cant see private businesses requiring vaccinations.  I hope not anyway.  This would open the door to requiring shots for everything from flu to herpes, pneumonia, hepatitis.  The list is endless. 

But who would have thought that we would close a whole country down? Never in my wildest dreams! So, yes, it is conceivable, if cruise lines need to prove they are doing everything to prevent an outbreak. 3 months ago I never would have thought they’d make my hubby go to the Dr before he could board a ship, and that’s where we are now. Yes, it is possible. Vaccinations have been required for years to enter school, and in my profession (I’m a retired RN) I had to prove I was negative for TB every year, have a mandatory flu shot and along with receiving a whole hepatitis series at one point in my career. I understand that cruise ships are a private business, but do they want to go through this again? I highly doubt it. I cannot wait until a vaccine is available, and I will be first in line for it when it’s offered. 

Edited April 17, 2020 by grandmarnnurse