(SPECULATION) Future of the Fantasy Class

[Georgia_Peaches]

My first cruise was on the Carnival Fantasy back in 1992.  It was a new ship back then.  I was awe struck when we entered the grand atrium for the first time.  We had an OV room on deck 5 and that was quite a splurge.  This was back in the days of midnight buffets and ice sculptures.  Had a great time on my first cruise and have been on the Fantasy at least four times since.  Having said all that, I would not book a cruise on Fantasy or in this class of ship were it offered to me today.  Cruise ships have evolved over time and I have grown accustomed to all that the larger and newer ships have to offer.  If it's the Fantasy class that leads the way for cruising to resume, I will wait it out for a bigger and newer ship.  I want the bells and whistles...not a cruise for the sake of cruising.  

[ninjacat123]

21 minutes ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

  If it's the Fantasy class that leads the way for cruising to resume, I will wait it out for a bigger and newer ship.  I want the bells and whistles...not a cruise for the sake of cruising.  

My DH and I are booked on a Europe cruise 2021 on Legend and a 4 night on Ecstasy this September. I'm so excited about this Ecstasy cruise, just to be on the water. I hope others will feel the same and keep Carnival in business👍

[eroller]

I think most cruise lines will emerge from all this smaller companies, and that means some ships won't make the cut, at least not initially.  There will be a gradual ramp-up of operations.  There simply isn't demand to fill an entire fleet even at rock bottom pricing.  Plus the cruise lines will want to reduce capacity to retain some sort of pricing integrity.  They will not want to give the cruises away.  So they will try to match capacity with demand.  Most ships right now are in "hot lay up", meaning they are fully staffed with various classifications kept up to date, ready to return to service at a moments notice.  Basically in a wait and see mode.   What I think will happen is some ships will revert to a warm layup (skeleton staff) for an extended period in various remote locations, and some others to a cold layup (basically in moth balls awaiting scrapping).  What ships is anyone's guess.  While the Fantasy Class may be paid off so to speak, they could also be some of the more expensive ships to operate on a per passenger basis, with the lowest return.  Remember these are smaller ships, but still require a full compliment of officers which are the highest paid crew onboard.  In addition they probably burn more fuel with less efficient engines and generate more pollution.  I'm not sure any of the Fantasy Class ships have been retrofitted with Scrubbers and that could also be an issue.  This is not an expense cruise lines are going to want to incur right now, especially if they have other more modern ships with the latest environmental standards already in place.  But honestly it's anyones guess.  Speculation on my part but speculation can be interesting.  

 

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to see it all play out.  The cruise industry will not be the same in so many respects when this is all said and done.  

[ninjacat123]

21 minutes ago, eroller said:

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to see it all play out.  The cruise industry will not be the same in so many respects when this is all said and done.  

Thanks for the insight!  The more information, the better!

[scpirate]

On 4/16/2020 at 6:46 PM, Essiesmom said:

People have been expecting Carnival to sell off the Fantasy class for more than 10 years.  But I think they may be the first ships to resume sailing when things calm down.  Why?  They serve drive-to ports, several of which cannot handle the larger ships due to bridges.  they are smaller, and require less crew.  It going to be nearly as arduous a task task to fully crew the fleet after they can resume as it was to get them home.  Fantasy class are paid for.  EM

Yes they are easier to fill and cheaper to operate.it will be harder to fill bigger ships.i know my wife refuses to cruise this year at any time.besides she has been complaining about repeating ports,some more than 3 times.we have a southern itiniary in 2022.we both really enjoyed that one but it won't be repeated after this.

[centurycruiser]

The loss of air support may enhance the drive to market.

[eroller]

2 hours ago, scpirate said:

 cheaper to operate. 

 

 

Not sure I would agree with that.  They might actually be the most expensive ships to operate (per pax) in the Carnival fleet.  

[joeyancho]

Fantasy class would make excellent artificial reefs. 

[jimbo5544]

12 hours ago, eroller said:

I think most cruise lines will emerge from all this smaller companies, and that means some ships won't make the cut, at least not initially.  There will be a gradual ramp-up of operations.  There simply isn't demand to fill an entire fleet even at rock bottom pricing.  Plus the cruise lines will want to reduce capacity to retain some sort of pricing integrity.  They will not want to give the cruises away.  So they will try to match capacity with demand.  Most ships right now are in "hot lay up", meaning they are fully staffed with various classifications kept up to date, ready to return to service at a moments notice.  Basically in a wait and see mode.   What I think will happen is some ships will revert to a warm layup (skeleton staff) for an extended period in various remote locations, and some others to a cold layup (basically in moth balls awaiting scrapping).  What ships is anyone's guess.  While the Fantasy Class may be paid off so to speak, they could also be some of the more expensive ships to operate on a per passenger basis, with the lowest return.  Remember these are smaller ships, but still require a full compliment of officers which are the highest paid crew onboard.  In addition they probably burn more fuel with less efficient engines and generate more pollution.  I'm not sure any of the Fantasy Class ships have been retrofitted with Scrubbers and that could also be an issue.  This is not an expense cruise lines are going to want to incur right now, especially if they have other more modern ships with the latest environmental standards already in place.  But honestly it's anyones guess.  Speculation on my part but speculation can be interesting.  

 

One thing is for sure, it will be interesting to see it all play out.  The cruise industry will not be the same in so many respects when this is all said and done.  

Interesting post, I have never seen any data on the earnings by class of ship, but understand your logic.  I feel pretty confident that these ships have scrubbers, they typically sail into waters where they would be required, out local expert could opine at that.  I am also pretty sure there never were notes on any of these class, and doubt the fun 2.0 upgrades incurred one also, but again, just my thought.  
 

I would think the startup, when it occurs, it would be more port driven than ship size.  Carnival has the most home ports of any line, I would think that might allow them to utilize more ships as they reengage their clients to cruising.  Like you, I doubt we will see them giving away rooms like they did after 9/11, but we really do not know.  If people are slow to return (and I am talking about 1st half 2021 here) all bets are off on what could occur.  As I have previously mentioned I think the two other lines are in even more dire straits.  On a more global basis, the image pain on the Princess brand, and their model and clientele as well as where they sail may at the very least shutter the majority of their ships.  Both Princess and HAL will be under the microscope.  

[BlerkOne]

With relaxation in environmental standards I'm not sure scrubbers matter.

 

Fantasy ships may (or may not) cost more per passenger, but are certainly profitable. Being smaller, they would need fewer cruising passengers to break even. When cruising begins again, Fantasy class would have the ability to cruise from and to more ports without any special accommodation. Would be easier to cruise from multiple home ports, if that is what reduced demand leads to.

[Aoumd]

11 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Interesting post, I have never seen any data on the earnings by class of ship, but understand your logic.  I feel pretty confident that these ships have scrubbers, they typically sail into waters where they would be required, out local expert could opine at that.  I am also pretty sure there never were notes on any of these class, and doubt the fun 2.0 upgrades incurred one also, but again, just my thought.  
 

I would think the startup, when it occurs, it would be more port driven than ship size.  Carnival has the most home ports of any line, I would think that might allow them to utilize more ships as they reengage their clients to cruising.  Like you, I doubt we will see them giving away rooms like they did after 9/11, but we really do not know.  If people are slow to return (and I am talking about 1st half 2021 here) all bets are off on what could occur.  As I have previously mentioned I think the two other lines are in even more dire straits.  On a more global basis, the image pain on the Princess brand, and their model and clientele as well as where they sail may at the very least shutter the majority of their ships.  Both Princess and HAL will be under the microscope.  

 

Very good points on the other brands.  I originally posted my speculation above thinking solely CCL in a vacuum, but when you involve the other brands, the calculus does change in terms of what the parent Carnival Corporation would do.  Would we see a "merger" of Princess and HAL into one brand?  Or some equivalent involving other brands? 

 

I'm getting images of another merger by two lines that are now a Carnival brand in my head..."Cunard-White Star" from the Depression...the next of which our economy is now entering.

 

Another item that might keep the Fantasy Class going is, the remaining Carnival brands don't really have a "home" you can spin the ships off to, thanks to Carnival's newbuilding spree in the past decade. 

[jimbo5544]

51 minutes ago, Aoumd said:

 

Very good points on the other brands.  I originally posted my speculation above thinking solely CCL in a vacuum, but when you involve the other brands, the calculus does change in terms of what the parent Carnival Corporation would do.  Would we see a "merger" of Princess and HAL into one brand?  Or some equivalent involving other brands? 

 

I'm getting images of another merger by two lines that are now a Carnival brand in my head..."Cunard-White Star" from the Depression...the next of which our economy is now entering.

 

Another item that might keep the Fantasy Class going is, the remaining Carnival brands don't really have a "home" you can spin the ships off to, thanks to Carnival's newbuilding spree in the past decade. 

Carnival is behind Royal, NCL, and MSC are far ahead of Carnival in terms of new builds, including the past decade.  This is part of the reason that they are in a better position.  That said, there are no winners here.  It remains to be seen how each line will be impacted, but none of it will be good.  All we can do is give them our vacation dollars when each of us is ready to venture out in the world again.  

[Thorncroft]

I'm not sure that the cruise industry will ever return to the level it was at 2 months ago.  Who would've ever thought that 25 million people would become unemployed in the span of a few weeks and decimate them financially? It's not even over yet, at this point. This will leave lasting scars that will have people second guessing every dollar that they spend, for years to come, not including the crowds at Walmart that are lined up to buy the biggest TV that they can get for $1200.  

[Woodfaerie]

Sailing a Fantasy ship is like wearing a well worn AC DC concert tshirt from the late 70's. Something darn comfortable about it even though some of lettering is faded and its a bit tighter.

[toad455]

I had thought that the Fantasy was on it's way out before this pandemic hit. The ship is now 30 years old while the Ecstasy is 29. When the Mardi Gras enters service, Carnival would have 28 ships in total for its fleet. That's a lot. They'll likely keep the Spirit & Splendor in Australia. Retire the Fantasy & Ecstasy. Pride still goes to Tampa & the Legend to Baltimore. Keep the Miracle, Inspiration & Imagination out west. Maybe they keep a ship year-round in New York starting in 2021? Move the Fascination to Mobile? Move the Elation to Jacksonville? Just some speculation on my part on what Carnival may do with some of their fleet if needed to downsize.

[LEtue]

On 4/16/2020 at 7:55 PM, PhillyFan33579 said:

Lots of good thought provoking posts in this thread. The reason I think Fantasy class ships will still be around for awhile is due to several ports like Tampa that cannot support larger ships due to bridge issues. If they did retire/sell all their Fantasy class ships, they could possibly deploy their 4 spirit class ships to ports with bridge issues. 

There are a lot of ships that do or have sailed from Tampa.  The Carnival Legend and Miracle, RCI Brilliance and Rhapsody,  NCL Jade and Star, and Celebrity Constellation are a few.

Living and sailing from Tampa I avoid the Paradise and much prefer the others after sailing on the Imagination and Ecstasy previously.  It will be interesting to see what happens to the Fantasy class ships......   

[PhillyFan33579]

19 minutes ago, LEtue said:

There are a lot of ships that do or have sailed from Tampa.  The Carnival Legend and Miracle, RCI Brilliance and Rhapsody,  NCL Jade and Star, and Celebrity Constellation are a few.

Living and sailing from Tampa I avoid the Paradise and much prefer the others after sailing on the Imagination and Ecstasy previously.  It will be interesting to see what happens to the Fantasy class ships......   

 

The fact still remains the only CCL ships that can cruise out of Tampa are Fantasy and Spirit class ships. While that includes 12 ships in their current fleet, 8 of those are Fantasy class ships, which a lot of people including me won’t cruise on any more. While I personally love Spirit class ships, there are only 4 of them. Hopefully Carnival will continue to keep one of them at Tampa for the forseeable future.  
 

What I think is going to be really interesting since I live in the Tampa area, is how much longer cruise ships will continue to depart from Tampa. At some point, and it is likely to be sooner now due to COVID-19 and it’s impact, cruise lines are going to retire/sell their older ships. It is still multiple years away, but eventually it will get to the point that their will be very few ships left that will be able to sail under the Skyway Bridge. 

[Radiioman46]

Another point that I think of, is that in Tender ports, you can get off of a Fantasy Class much faster than the big ones.

 

I remember one year, we were on one of the bigger ships, and pulled into the Cayman islands, which requires Tendering, and there were at least 6 big ships all contending with Tendering. It was a disaster, because I guess there were close to 12K ppl wanting to Tender to the same pier. We sat in the Tender boat at the pier waiting our turn to get off for almost an hour.

[toad455]

I do wonder if Carnival wishes they had built another Spirit-class ship instead of the Splendor. They could always bring back the Miracle to do Tampa or Baltimore. Or bring the Spirit back to the US and send a newer ship to Australia.

[Purvis1231]

I think new builds are off the table for a decade so the fantasy class may have a little more life. Also, being smaller with less people onboard, they may be appealing in a post COVID-19 cruise market.

[LEtue]

8 hours ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

 

The fact still remains the only CCL ships that can cruise out of Tampa are Fantasy and Spirit class ships. While that includes 12 ships in their current fleet, 8 of those are Fantasy class ships, which a lot of people including me won’t cruise on any more. While I personally love Spirit class ships, there are only 4 of them. Hopefully Carnival will continue to keep one of them at Tampa for the forseeable future.  
 

What I think is going to be really interesting since I live in the Tampa area, is how much longer cruise ships will continue to depart from Tampa. At some point, and it is likely to be sooner now due to COVID-19 and it’s impact, cruise lines are going to retire/sell their older ships. It is still multiple years away, but eventually it will get to the point that their will be very few ships left that will be able to sail under the Skyway Bridge. 

I don't sail on the Fantasy class ships either so thankfully there are other choices out there.  I do like the Spirit class and and will be on the Legend next year in the Med. 

I have to admit that I don't sail the Caribbean anymore - just Alaska and Europe......

[StillPooh]

On 4/17/2020 at 9:20 AM, some_body said:

Baltimore has a bridge as well.

 

But the ship that sails out of Baltimore (Pride) is a Spirit class. 

[jimbo5544]

On 4/18/2020 at 10:11 PM, Thorncroft said:

I'm not sure that the cruise industry will ever return to the level it was at 2 months ago.  Who would've ever thought that 25 million people would become unemployed in the span of a few weeks and decimate them financially? It's not even over yet, at this point. This will leave lasting scars that will have people second guessing every dollar that they spend, for years to come, not including the crowds at Walmart that are lined up to buy the biggest TV that they can get for $1200.  

I’m confused, Walmart, big screen TV’s, Future of Fantasy class ships....these are related how?  One might argue that the economy which was the strongest it had ever been will return once the country comes online, but not sure what that has to do with the Fantasy class either.  

[CategoryQ]

The Curacao Ports Authority has a picture on FB of Fantasy and Inspiration with the caption: Carnival Fantasy and Carnival Inspiration moored at the container terminal for unloading heavy equipment.

 

Someone noted that the generators appear to be removed from the ships.

 

There are also reports that ship tracking sites show Fantasy's next destination as Turkey, where a ship scrapping yard is nearby.

 

No official word from Carnival, and the Fantasy bookings are still available on the website.

[tidecat]

Bookings will be available until the sale has been closed, and any other deployment changes to cover for the sold ship - if not outright cancelling itineraries - has been arranged.