SS/RCCL Finances: Improving, Options, Questions??!!

[crusinbanjo]

interesting Thanks

 

[TLCOhio]

Cruise stocks have been moving up and UP during the past week based on more optimism by the financial experts on Wall Street.  See the charts below.   From this one financial reporting source this morning, they had this headline: “Cruise stocks soar 10% as reopening optimism lifts virus-slammed industries” with these highlights: “Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and Norwegian Cruise Line all leaped at least 10% on Wednesday as hopes for a coronavirus vaccine and smooth reopening lifted sentiment around the ailing sector.  The gains form a healthy streak for the companies, which all closed at least 12% higher on Tuesday.  Growing optimism around a near-term economic reopening has fueled strong upswings for travel and leisure stocks as investors look to capitalize on a return to past activity.”

 

Here are some additional details from their reporting/analysis: "Travel and leisure companies have also traded higher on hopes for a coronavirus treatment or vaccine. Equities soared on positive news out of Moderna's phase-one study last week and enjoyed a similar, albeit smaller, boost on Tuesday after Novavax announced its own drug had entered clinical trials. Travel stocks stand to benefit from a faster-than-expected vaccine rollout, as experts fear the lack of such a drug could keep consumer confidence from fully rebounding."

 

Full story at:

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/cruise-stock-prices-reopening-hopes-royal-caribbean-norwegian-carnival-lines-2020-5-1029238408

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 230,112 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

From the Wall Street Journal this morning a little after 11 am EDT, below are the charts of the three major cruise line stocks during the past month.  During the past week, the view of Wall Stteet towards the cruise lines' long-term future is becoming more optimistic.  How will that potential trend affect consumer confidence?:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these pictures larger/better!)

 

 

[cruiseej]

I'd guess there will be more peaks and valleys in cruise company stocks over the next several months. Every positive sign on COVID-19 and the stocks soar; any setbacks on a vaccine or treatment or "second wave" and the stocks sink. 

[Daveywavey70]

I’m still kicking myself, I was going to take a punt on NCL at 7.00 but got cold feet.

[Stumblefoot]

2 hours ago, Daveywavey70 said:

I’m still kicking myself, I was going to take a punt on NCL at 7.00 but got cold feet.

Don’t worry Davey.  This market makes little sense to most.  I certainly wasn’t willing to take a punt on any of the cruise line’s common equity and I doubt many here did.  Bonds?  Yes.  Common equity?  Absolutely not.

[TLCOhio]

11 hours ago, Stumblefoot said:

Don’t worry Davey.  This market makes little sense to most.  I certainly wasn’t willing to take a punt on any of the cruise line’s common equity and I doubt many here did.  Bonds?  Yes.  Common equity?  Absolutely not.

 

Yes, Wall Street and financial markets can be challenging!!  Not easy to guess correctly and have all of the insights needed to zig and zag at the smartest points in time. .  

 

From the Forbes business publication this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean Cruises Stock Lost 70% In 3 Months: Can It Recover?” with these highlights: “Considering how Covid-19 spread on cruise liner Diamond Princess, and the measures taken by governments all over the world, the entire cruise line industry is on its knees with no demand and high cash outflow. Royal Caribbean Cruises’ stock has sunk nearly 70% this year. However, there may be a huge investment opportunity if the stock can recover. This can only happen if (a) the company survives the existing cash outflow via financing, cost restructuring, and capital expenditure cuts until the demand recovers, and (b) the existing demand gap is filled and a pre-pandemic growth trajectory is re-attained. The good news is that from a liquidity and survival stand point, Royal Caribbean is safe! We think that even in a pessimistic scenario, the company may be able to generate $900 million in free cash flow if it can cut down its capital expenditure by 70% and does not spend any amount on share repurchases. The bad news - while survival probability is very high, the long term lingering effects of the current demand shock may make a pre-pandemic growth trajectory unattainable for the foreseeable future.”

 

The author offers three different scenario options for RCCL. Interesting background, financial details and insights.   His concluding bottom-line?:  "Royal Caribbean is burning $250 million in cash every month excluding customer refunds as it has suspended all sailing operations. What happens if this continues and there is no uptick in demand? Unlikely, but plausible. You’ll be surprised how well Royal Caribbean is prepared to face this disaster."

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2020/05/28/royal-caribbean-cruises-stock-lost-70-in-3-months-can-it-recover/#27cf2efd7a88

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 87,342 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[TLCOhio]

Yesterday/Friday was a big, BIG "move-up" day for the stock values of the three largest cruise lines,.  This includes for RCCL that owns and controls Silversea.  Below are the stock value charts for these three large cruise companies and how their values have been recovering during the past month. 

 

Why is this of interest and/or any importance?  If and when the cruise lines seek to resume operations, maintaining their financial health will be a key part of the process.  If Wall Street and the financial people are not confident in their future, then their ability to borrow and sustain the future will be challenged.  Clearly based on the stock market value moves yesterday, some are "voting" with their checkbooks to see a future recovery for the cruise lines.    Agree or disagree??  It still will be a slow, long period for recovery, but this is a sign to watch and monitor in the months ahead. 

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 66,442 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

 

From this morning's Wall Street Journal, below are the stock charts for the three major cruise lines.  As noted below, Royal Caribbean was up in value yesterday by over 20%, the highest compared to the other two chief competitors.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these pictures larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

 From the Motley Fool investment website this morning, they had this headline: “3 Stocks to Play a Coronavirus Recovery” with this subhead: "A cruise line, a discount retail mall operator, and a restaurant chain might not be at their best right now, but they should lead the way in the pandemic recovery efforts."

 

Here are their key highlights related to Royal Caribbean: “Cruise line stocks have started to bounce back months before their ships start sailing again.. It's widely accepted that even in the slammed travel industry, these ships will be the last component to bounce back.  Royal Caribbean still seems like the best bet among the three publicly traded cruise lines. It has historically commanded the highest margins of the three players, and it seems well positioned here as the middle child of the industry. The smaller player will be the first to buckle in a prolonged disruption, and the larger player is a discounter that relies on first-time cruisers who aren't likely to set sail anytime soon. Royal Caribbean stock has tripled since bottoming out in March, but it's still 57% below its January highs. It's the class act in a troubled industry, with $3.3 billion in liquidity to ride out the storm.”

 

Interesting details related to RCCL and their main competitors.

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/06/3-stocks-to-play-a-coronavirus-recovery.aspx

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 49,530 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

[TLCOhio]

From the Travel Section of the London/UK Sunday Times this weekend, they had this headline: “What has happened to the world’s cruise ships?” with this sub-head: "With crew struck on board, ships clustered at ports and river boats ready to set sail, Sue Bryant investigates what the future holds".

 

Here are some of the story highlights: “Around the world, 12 weeks after cruising shuddered to a halt, cruise ships are bobbing around in forlorn clusters. Dozens are sitting off the Bahamas, and a small armada is anchored off Manila, having sailed back to repatriate thousands of Filipino crew. More still are hanging around the Canary Islands.  Repatriating well over 100,000 crew has been a long and arduous process because of the sheer number of people involved and laborious bureaucracy. The US, for example, only allows crew ashore if they are to be taken immediately to board a charter flight at the nearest airport.  Ships are in what’s called 'warm lay-up', which means they could, in theory, start operating within a couple of weeks.  For all this to happen, borders need to open, flights need to operate, Britain’s blanket quarantine needs to be refined and infrastructure in ports needs to be functioning.”

 

As to the question of "How soon will we be cruising again?", this experienced cruise writer updates: "The first river cruise, run by the German line Nicko, started on the Danube and Rhine this week. Another German line, A’Rosa Cruises, is planning to start sailing the Douro as well as the Rhine and Danube in June. Hurtigruten and the luxury SeaDream Yacht Club will start sailing the Norwegian coast this month, but with the country’s border closed until August 20, only locals will benefit.  Whatever happens, industry bosses insist that it will be a slow and tentative resumption of service."

 

For this question "Are we likely to see fewer new ships being launched?", she shares: "Twenty-two cruise ships were due to launch this year. However, when the biggest shipyards in Italy, Germany and France shut down, delays became inevitable. Silversea’s Silver Moon, for example, is expected to leave the Fincantieri shipyard in Ancona, Italy, in early October, two months late."

 

Finally for "What changes are we going to see on board?", she writes: "Smaller cruise lines are saying that they will sail at between 50 and 70 per cent capacity to maintain social distancing; big ship lines are yet to be specific. Expect constant temperature screening, relentless disinfecting and endless hand-sanitising. When big ships start up, embarkation could be staggered, to avoid crowds in cruise terminals. Buffets will be waiter service only and spas will, for now, be closed. Facemasks could be mandatory."

 

Full story at:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/travel/what-has-happened-to-the-worlds-cruise-ships-l6rnh7jsq

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Athens & Greece: Many visuals, details from two visits in a city with great history, culture and architecture.  Now at 35,333 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1101008

[crusinbanjo]

22 hours ago, TLCOhio said:

From the Travel Section of the London/UK Sunday Times this weekend, they had this headline: “What has happened to the world’s cruise ships?” with this sub-head: "With crew struck on board, ships clustered at ports and river boats ready to set sail, Sue Bryant investigates what the future holds".

 

 

 

Thanks Terry. always insightful.  Sounds like it it going to be a long hard slog to get back .

[TLCOhio]

53 minutes ago, crusinbanjo said:

Thanks Terry. always insightful.  Sounds like it it going to be a long hard slog to get back.

 

Agree with our New England friend that "a long hard slog" is a good summary for the future timing facing the cruise lines.  Below is another summary as to how those in the investment world circles view these three major cruise lines and their/our comeback hopes/plans. 

 

From the often-quoted Motley Fool website late yesterday, their report had this headline: “Did Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Earn Last Week's Gains?” with this sub-head: "The three cruise line stocks soared at least 34% higher this past week".

 

Here are more of their column highlights: “Some of the past week's biggest winners were cruise line stocks. The cruise line companies saw their stocks soar even though an analyst put out bearish updates for all three players. There's also nothing to suggest that Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line, and Royal Caribbean will be setting sail anytime soon. Carnival's Princess line announced an extension to its suspended sailings. However, that didn't stop all three stocks from appreciating by more than a third last week. The three stocks rose between 34% and 43% over the past five trading days.  Carnival: up 37%.  Royal Caribbean: up 34%.
Norwegian Cruise Line: up 43%.”

 

Here are more pro/con factors and details discussed by this writer: "There is no indication that the cruise lines will be sailing again by the early August resumption dates they're currently booking. Many ships still have crew members who need to be repatriated -- 60,000, at last count -- and if you think Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line will have an easy time staffing their ships later this year, you probably aren't paying attention.  With thousands of confirmed COVID-19 cases earlier this year on cruise ships and at least 82 related fatalities, cruise lines will be put to the test. Crew and passengers alike will need to be convinced that hitting the high seas for a few days with thousands of other people is a good idea in the near future. For now, the industry is doing a reasonable job of getting more than half of its passengers on cancelled sailings to opt for future cruise credit instead of an outright refund, but that can change in the coming months. If the first wave of summer itineraries gets pushed out again and folks don't take kindly to the experience-snipping restrictions that cruise lines will have to put into action to be cleared for sailing, it could eat into the near-term enthusiasm."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/07/did-carnival-royal-caribbean-and-norwegian-cruise.aspx

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

Lisbon, NWSpain, Bordeaux/Brittany: Live/blog, June 2017 from Portugal to France along scenic Atlantic Coast.  Now at 30,602 views.  Many interesting pictures, details for history, food, culture, etc.:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2511358

[TLCOhio]

From Barron's, the business publication connected with the Wall Street Journal, they had this headline in the past half hour: “Cruise Lines Are Docked and Their Stocks Are Falling. Here’s the Latest.” with these highlights: “The shares of the big-three U.S. cruise operators were all down at least 4% Monday morning amid the broader market’s concerns about rising coronavirus infections.  The S&P 500 was off 0.8%.  The cruise stocks have been volatile, often reflecting a particular day’s sentiment on the prospects of an economic recovery and getting the pandemic under control.  On Friday, however, the shares gained more than 14%. But that was preceded by a 15% drop on Thursday and a 10% decline on June 10, according to FactSet.  In theory, the cruise lines could resume some sailings involving foreign ports before that happens in the U.S. But no approvals have come from foreign governments yet. And Canada has banned most cruise ships from its ports until November.”

 

Here are more story details that might be of interest: " 'When sailing does resume, it might take only a small outbreak on one ship to cause global operations to be suspended again, so the industry needs to get this right the first time,' Morgan Stanley said in a research note earlier this month.  All three stocks have rallied off their lows earlier this year, but are all down at least 50% year to date.,"

 

Full story at:

https://www.barrons.com/articles/cruise-line-stocks-coronavirus-pandemic-sailings-51592235127?adobe_mc=MCMID%3D75009898558604121880946554453418571306|MCORGID%3DCB68E4BA55144CAA0A4C98A5%40AdobeOrg|TS%3D1592235803

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

Panama Canal? Early 2017, Fort Lauderdale to San Francisco adventure through Panama Canal.  Our first stops in Colombia, Central America and Mexico, plus added time in the great Golden Gate City. Now at 29,857 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2465580

[Host Jazzbeau]

The market opened lower across the board today, then turned slightly positive at the close.  RCL closed down only 0.57% today [so the 'down at least 4%' is old news].  The other numbers mentioned in your quote sound basically like tracking the broader market.  But reporters have to have a crisis to generate clicks and eyeballs – even if they have to make one up.

[TLCOhio]

On 6/15/2020 at 5:46 PM, Host Jazzbeau said:

The market opened lower across the board today, then turned slightly positive at the close.  RCL closed down only 0.57% today [so the 'down at least 4%' is old news].  The other numbers mentioned in your quote sound basically like tracking the broader market.  But reporters have to have a crisis to generate clicks and eyeballs – even if they have to make one up.

 

With due respect to Host Jazzbeau, yes, you can argue, correctly, that some reporting and media/Internet activities/headlines are about "CLICKS AND EYEBALLS".  But some headlines and stories do catch your attention and raise serious questions.  Especially when it comes from media sources noted for serious, in-depth reporting.   

 

This afternoon from the Wall Street Journal, they had this headline: “Carnival Posts Record Quarterly Loss” with this sub-head: "Cruise operator expects to burn about $650 million a month for the second half of the year".  I did not need to be a math major to figure out that even a half billion dollars a month times six months adds up to what we might call "REAL MONEY"!!??  

 

Here are a few of their story highlights: “ Carnival Corp. reported a preliminary quarterly loss of more than $4 billion, its largest ever, as the Covid-19 pandemic has idled ships, and it warned that it could breach a loan agreement in a prolonged sailing pause. The cruise operator on Thursday also said it expects to book a loss for the rest of the fiscal year. It has extended sailing pauses to the end of the year on its other units as it faces differing cruising restrictions in various countries. The company posted a preliminary fiscal second-quarter loss of $4.37 billion, or $6.07 a share, compared with a profit of $451 million, or 65 cents a share, in the same period last year. The loss includes $2 billion in noncash impairment charges. Revenue for the quarter was $700 million, down 85% from a year earlier. As it looks for cash, Carnival said it expects six ships to leave its fleet over the next three months and is working on additional agreements to dispose of more ships. A Carnival spokesman, said the company will divest of its older ships. In an effort to cut costs, the company said it expects to fully pause 'substantially all' its ships in the third quarter.”

 

Given Carnival's vast size and number of ships/brands, I doubt that the losses will be anywhere near as larger compared to either Royal Caribbean and/or NCL.  BUT, when a financial story reviews financial details in the BILLIONS, of dollars it does catch your attention and raise a number of long-term questions.  Given news today of the virus getting worse in Florida, California and at other locations, clearly this "situation" is not wrapping up in only a few more weeks.  Sad!!

 

Here are a few more details from this story: "The company isn’t sure when it can begin cruising again, and that Carnival Cruise Line’s Aug. 1 sailing plan for eight cruises is 'premature' but hasn’t been canceled. He said cruising could begin in Europe before the U.S.  In the U.S., the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s no-sail order for cruise ships could remain in place through July 24. The Canadian government has extended its sailing ban for cruise ships carrying more than 100 passengers through Oct. 31, leading to cancellations of cruises in Alaska, Canada and New England."

 

Full story at:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/carnival-to-post-largest-quarterly-loss-in-at-least-25-years-11592501039?mod=hp_lista_pos1

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

From late 2018, see “Holy Lands, Egypt, Jordan, Oman, Dubai, Greece, etc.”, with many visuals, details and ideas for the historic and scenic Middle East. Now at 18,432 views.  Connect at:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2607054-livenautica-greece-holy-lands-egypt-dubai-terrypix’s/

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal for the past month, here is how the ups and downs for their stock value has moved.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these pictures larger/better!)

[dawntrdr]

Royal Caribbean's 49% subsidiary Pullmantur has filed for reorganization under Spanish insolvency law:

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23124-pullmantur-files-for-reorganization.html

 

According to the article, Pullmantur was on "cold" lay-up, as opposed to RCCL's other ships.  As I recall from RCCL's annual report, Pullmantur sells mostly to the Spanish market, which has seek bleak times recently.

[tgh]

From a corporate perspective there must now be a huge question on the real value of the  assets of most if not all publicly listed  cruise companies.

Actuaries may be checking their insurance cover … 🙂

[TLCOhio]

53 minutes ago, tgh said:

From a corporate perspective there must now be a huge question on the real value of the  assets of most if not all publicly listed  cruise companies. Actuaries may be checking their insurance cover … 🙂

 

Yes, excellent sharing and great questions above by tgh and dawntrdr. It's going to be hard to determine the actual "value" to assign to these laid-up sailing assets.  Hard to adapt certain of these ship to other uses.  For some time, in my view, there will be a glut of sailing ships.   

 

From the Miami Herald this morning, they had this headline: “Royal Caribbean joint venture Pullmantur cruise line files for reorganization”.   From other media sources, the word "BANKRUPTCY" was applied to this announcement related to a subsidiary owned 49% by Royal Caribbean.

 

Here are some of the highlights from this story by a newspaper at the center of the cruise industry: “The cruise line comprised of three ships — Horizon, Monarch and Sovereign — focuses on Spanish and Latin American customers.  Pullmantur had previously canceled cruises through November 15, 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Customers who have booked cruises for future dates will be able to re-book on other Royal Caribbean Cruises lines. Royal Caribbean Cruises reported (in late May) a $1.4 billion loss, or $6.91 per share, in the first quarter of 2020, a sharp downturn from a profit of $249.7 million, $1.19 per share, during the same period last year. The company said Monday that all of its assets related to the Pullmantur joint venture were included in the non-cash asset impairment charges reported in their first quarter of 2020 results.”

 

The second link below provides more details indicating this Spanish subsidiary is being closed up totally and that the interior assets from these ships were being removed. Clearly, it appears as if the Covid-19 is forcing serious changes and shrinkages in the cruise industry. More to come for ships being closed up and/or abandoned?

 

Full stories at:

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article243707787.html

https://www.cruiselawnews.com/2020/06/articles/disease/is-pullmantur-cruises-ending-operations/

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Norway Coast/Fjords/Arctic Circle cruise from Copenhagen, July 2010, to the top of Europe. Wonderful scenic visuals with key tips. Live/blog at 239,594

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1227923

[TLCOhio]

From the Motley Fool website that focuses on Wall Street and key stocks, they had this headline yesterday: “There's More Bad News for Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Investors” with this sub-head: "A credit rating downgrade and a pair of analyst downgrades rock the cruise line stocks.".

 

Here are some of the key highlights and specifics from this reporting: “Recent developments for the cruise line stocks aren't very encouraging. An analyst is downgrading shares of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings and Royal Caribbean on Wednesday morning, and that follows S&P Global Ratings downgrading Carnival's credit rating -- to noninvestment grade or junk status -- on Tuesday afternoon.  With the industry now pushing out future sailings until mid-September at the earliest, it's easy to see why credit rating agencies are getting a little nervous here. All three cruise line operators have raised billions in new financing apiece in recent months, and they are years away from approaching last year's profitability levels. The stock downgrades are a different beast, as Wall Street's reacting to three investments that have more than doubled in value off their springtime lows despite fundamentals that continue to erode.”

 

Below are the latest downward stock value trends from the Wall Street Journal during the past week for these three key cruising companies.  This morning, these three stocks continued their downward trend. 

 

Here is their key concluding summary: "Shares of Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line may continue to head higher, but with fundamentals going the other way again, gains will only make the investments that much more speculative at this point. The risks are as high, as the stocks have gotten speculative at this point. Sail responsibly, investors."

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/24/theres-more-bad-news-for-carnival-royal-caribbean.aspx

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

Sydney to NZ/Auckland Adventure, live/blog 2014 sampling/details with many exciting visuals and key highlights.  On page 23, post #571, see a complete index for all of the pictures, postings.  Now at 230,406 views.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1974139

 

 

From late yesterday afternoon after the markets closed, here are the charts/trends from the Wall Street Journal for the three major cruise line companies.  During these past five days, it has been a downward trend. Plus, early this am, that downward movement continued.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these pictures larger/better!)

 

[TLCOhio]

From the Motley Fool website that focuses on Wall Street/financial activities, they had this headline yesterday morning: “Is Royal Caribbean Stock a Buy?" with this sub-headline: "The risks are high when it comes to cruise line stocks these days, but the country's second-largest cruise line remains the class act of the lot for investors.”.   Highly positive comments for RCCL, the parent of Silversea!!!  Why?

 

Here are some of their column highlights: “All three publicly traded players suffered double-digit percentage declines last week, and Royal Caribbean enters the new week trading nearly 40% below the high it set three weeks ago. The near-term outlook isn't pretty. It's been more than three months since its last revenue-generating cruise returned to its debarkation port. Royal Caribbean has pushed out future sailings several times, and we're now down to mid-September as the earliest possible resumption date for the industry. With COVID-19 cases continuing to surge in U.S. port states and tens of thousands of crew members still on these ships as the cruise industry fumbles the repatriation process, one would have to have a high risk threshold to buy into cruise line stocks right now. If you feel compelled to take a chance on this volatile travel niche Royal Caribbean continues to be the smartest choice for investors.”

 

Here are some more helpful and interesting insights from this writer: "The cruising industry isn't going to recover anytime soon. We know this year is going to be a financial disaster, and analysts see more red ink across all three players next year. It's not until 2022 when Wall Street pros see them in the black, and even then we're still not going to be anywhere close to the profit levels of 2019.  Carnival's marketing team is going to have its work cut out for itself as it tries to woo first timers aboard.  Royal Caribbean and Norwegian Cruise Line cater to more experienced travelers, and usually folks that aren't swayed by a low price point. The problem with Norwegian Cruise Line is that it's too small. It's the distant bronze medalist in this sea race, and that makes it the most vulnerable. Royal Caribbean offers the best of both world when it comes to size and ideal customer demographics.  When the cruising industry does recover it's a safe bet that it will be Royal Caribbean leading the way."

 

Also from MSN and the New York Daily News yesterday, they had this headline: “Major cruise ship set for demolition amid COVID-19 crisis” with highlights about Carnival Corporation being in process to dispose of six ships as a way to cut costs.  This story details how the Costa Victoria, a Carnival-owned ship, had arrived in Piombino, Italy, to be prepared for demolition.  Completed in 1996, the Costa Victoria was considered a "young ship" and held nearly 2,400 passengers.

 

Full stories at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/06/28/is-royal-caribbean-stock-a-buy.aspx

https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/news/major-cruise-ship-set-for-demolition-amid-covid-19-crisis/ar-BB162Ixd

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

 

Venice: Loving It & Why??!!  Is one of your future desires or past favorites? See these many visual samples for its great history and architecture.  This posting is now at 87,882 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1278226

[TLCOhio]

The cruise stocks continue to "bounce" around in the open, choppy seas of Wall Street.  Nothing too good, nor too bad??!!

 

From the Motley financial website yesterday, they had this headline: “Why Carnival Corporation, Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line Stocks All Popped Today" with this sub-head: "Carnival updates investors on its business and investors cheer.”

 

Here are some of their story/analysis highlights: “A raft of good news couldn't keep cruise line stocks afloat amid a falling stock market on Thursday -- but Friday is dawning a bit brighter for cruise ship stocks.  Carnival Corporation probably deserves the lion's share of the credit for today's rally. This morning, Carnival filed an 8-K business update with the SEC. Carnival noted that it still expects to burn through cash at the rate of "approximately $650 million" a month through the end of this year. However, Carnival is also continuing to take steps to reduce that burn rate.”

 

Of more interest here is their view/reporting related to RCCL/SS: "Royal Caribbean just announced that it has negotiated the purchase of the one-third stake in subsidiary Silversea Cruises that it did not already own, paying the $245 million acquisition cost with its own common stock (probably in order to conserve cash -- expect that to remain a theme in the cruise industry for the foreseeable future).  This is a curious development. Why, one might ask, would Royal Caribbean double down on its business by spending even its own stock to acquire a larger footprint in cruises, if it expected things to continue to get worse for the cruise industry?  The obvious answer is that it wouldn't. And the logical conclusion, therefore, is that Royal Caribbean is starting to see a light at the end of this long tunnel. Royal Caribbean is positioning itself to grab a larger share of the profits once consumers resume spending their discretionary dollars on cruise trips once again. This is therefore a bullish move for Royal Caribbean investors, and probably for investors in Carnival and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings as well."

 

Above is part guessing and spinning, but it raises interesting questions for the futures with the three major cruise lines, including RCCL.

 

Full story at:

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/10/why-carnival-corporation-royal-caribbean-and-norwe.aspx

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Amazon River-Caribbean 2015 adventure live/blog starting in Barbados. Many visuals from this amazing river and Caribbean Islands (Dutch ABC's, St. Barts, Dominica, Grenada, San Juan, etc.).  Now at 66,809 views:

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2157696

[TLCOhio]

From the Forbes business publication yesterday, they had this headline: “The Great Travel Depression? Hotels, Cruise Lines, Airlines Prepare To Open Q2 Books” with these highlights: “For much of the first half of this year, consumers stuck at home as the coronavirus circled the globe. Many people only dreamed of taking off to faraway lands or cruising across oceans and seas to exotic locales, while the industry that provided those services saw its own dreams turn into nightmares.  Domestic travel spending in the U.S. is on track to crash some 40% year-over-year to $583 billion from $972 billion last year, according to a recent U.S. Travel Association-commissioned report. And that doesn’t include the pandemic-induced fallout from the international side.  Moody’s and other ratings agencies have taken to downgrading travel companies such as TripAdvisor  and Expedia based on that dismal outlook.”  

 

Soon, each of these various companies must filed detailed second quarter financials that will be carefully examined, reviewed and picked apart as Wall Street and investor try to predict their futures.  

 

More details and specifics were provided for the airlines and hotels, etc., by this Wall Street analyst.   Regarding cruising, his reporting summarizes: "No Smooth Sailing Ahead".  Here are the details: "COVID-19 has been dreadful for cruise ship operators, many of which kept their jam-packed ships at sea even after the coronavirus was first detected on a cruise ship off the coast of Japan, according to a Washington Post report.  A Post review, reported in late April, found that COVID-19 'infected passengers and crew on at least 55 ships that sailed in the waters off nearly every continent, about a fifth of the total global fleet,' the story said.  Well aware of the hazards so many people eating, drinking and dancing so close together on a confined vessel presented, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a no-sail order for cruise ships on March 14 that it has since extended to July 24. The CDC’s message is to avoid a cruise and if you do go, quarantine yourself for 14 days afterward."

 

Full story at:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jjkinahan/2020/07/10/the-great-travel-depression-hotels-cruise-lines-airlines-prepare-to-open-q2-books/#5fe28c4a55f2

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

AFRICA?!!?: Fun, interesting visuals, plus travel details from this early 2016 live/blog. At 49,793 views. Featuring Cape Town, South Africa’s coast, Mozambique, Victoria Falls/Zambia and Botswana's famed Okavango Delta.

www.boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2310337

 

 

From the Wall Street Journal, below are the stock charts from this past week showing the movements of the three major cruise lines values.  Friday was a nice "pop up" for their stock prices.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see these pictures larger/better!)

 

 

[TLCOhio]

From Yahoo News yesterday, they had this headline: “Moody's places the ratings of Royal Caribbean on review for downgrade” with these highlights: “Moody's Investors Service, placed the ratings of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. on review for downgrade. 'The review for downgrade will focus on Royal Caribbean's recovery prospects in 2021 given the recent resurgence of coronavirus cases in certain states increasing the uncertainty around the reopening of the US and the company's plans for the eventual return to service of its US operations, including what precautions will be put in place when sailings do resume and the associated incremental costs,' stated Pete Trombetta, Moody's lodging and cruise analyst.  Royal Caribbean's credit profile is supported by its good liquidity and solid market position as the second largest global ocean cruise operator based upon capacity and revenue which acknowledges the strength of its brands. Royal Caribbean is well diversified by geography, brand, and market segment. In the short run, Royal Caribbean's credit profile will be dominated by the length of time that cruise operations continue to be highly disrupted and the resulting impacts on the company's cash consumption and its liquidity profile. The normal ongoing credit risks include the company's high leverage, the highly seasonal and capital intensive nature of cruise companies and the cruise industry's exposure to economic and industry cycles, weather incidents and geopolitical events.  The rapid spread of the coronavirus outbreak, deteriorating global economic outlook, and asset price declines are creating a severe and extensive credit shock across many sectors, regions and markets.”

 

In part, this action by Moody's sounds "routine", in my view, given the current spike in Covid-19 cases happening in key areas such as Florida, Texas and California.  BUT, it does raises the questions as to how long the "cash flow" can last till business can resume in the U.S. and around the world for this key part of the world-wide tourism business. 

 

Full story at:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/silversea-cruise-finance-ltd-moodys-182608475.html

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

Kotor/Montenegro:  Exciting visual samples, tips, details, etc., for this scenic, historic location. Over 47,726 views.

http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=1439193

 

 

Per this chart at 11 am today from the Wall Street Journal, this Moody's announcement was not bothering stock market investors.  RCCL was up significantly, 14.3%.  NCL was up today 12% and Carnival went up this morning 10%.:

(Open your screen/viewer wider to see this graphic larger/better!)

[TLCOhio]

WOW!!  The three major cruise line stocks today really went up, UP, UP!!  Below is the chart from the Wall Street Journal showing Royal Caribbean being up 21.2% today.  NCL was up 21.7% today while Carnival was up 16.2%.  Not sure why, but maybe this is a good sign of "CONFIDENCE" by investors that there is a decent future path forward ahead.  

 

THANKS!  Enjoy!  Terry in Ohio

 

[Stumblefoot]

1 hour ago, TLCOhio said:

Not sure why, but maybe this is a good sign of "CONFIDENCE" by investors...

 

Considering virtually all travel related companies rose today, the rise is linked to Moderna's release of data last night published by the New England Journal of Medicine that showed the company’s coronavirus vaccine produced a “robust” immune response, or neutralizing antibodies in every participant in a controlled test.

[Observer]

1 hour ago, Stumblefoot said:

 

Considering virtually all travel related companies rose today, the rise is linked to Moderna's release of data last night published by the New England Journal of Medicine that showed the company’s coronavirus vaccine produced a “robust” immune response, or neutralizing antibodies in every participant in a controlled test.

 

Agreed.  And adding to the euphoria is the fact that results of the Oxford University/ AstraZeneca vaccine (which may be slightly more advanced -- which is *not* to say more effective -- than Moderna's) are to be published next week in The Lancet. In fact, there is probably room/demand for multiple effective vaccines.  This should not be a zero sum game.