Guess The First Itinerary to Sail (No Betting)

[Pcardad]

A pump-fake is a common sports term meaning an action that begins movement in one direction to fool the opponent, then stops and goes in a different direction.

[Steve Q]

In one way you would think that one of the luxury lines might be first since they have more space per passenger. On the other hand, Carnival probably attracts a much younger demographic that appears to be less impacted by the virus. I guess Carnival’s announcement answers that question.

[mrlevin]

Eight ships, Caribbean and Bahamas only, no Alaska or West Coast and they cancelled trips to Hawaii and Asia from West Coast; and I am sure no cruise longer than seven days.  Seems least risky proposition out there.  With hundreds of millions in liability from Diamond, Grand, Ruby, and Coral Princess and various Costa ships Carnival is going to have to claim bankruptcy just to get out of the forthcoming judgements.

 

Marc

Edited May 4, 2020 by mrlevin

[Travelcat2]

Marc, since you went slightly off topic on your thread, I feel that I can mention that, IMHO, Carnival Corporation needs to really rethink their procedures.  They are reaping what they have sown.  Not keeping clean ships - keeping information about Covid-19 from their passengers (think Diamond Princess), etc.  

 

What Carnival has done wrong with their brands does not mean that other cruise lines are doing the same thing.  

[Pcardad]

And it is entirely possible that companies may be shielded from lawsuits...if they are not, the courts will be ties up for years and years over something that was a once in a lifetime event.

[mrlevin]

11 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

And it is entirely possible that companies may be shielded from lawsuits...if they are not, the courts will be ties up for years and years over something that was a once in a lifetime event.

 

Agreed, but the Ruby Princess actions were possibly criminal; the rest may be  just acts of god.

[Steve Q]

One real consequence of Carnival’s beginning so soon is that the results turn out negatively. If people on several ships once again develop the virus, the ramifications for future cruises on any line could face a serious setback. Conversely, if the limited cruises are successful, it would be a huge positive for the entire industry.

[Travelcat2]

19 minutes ago, Steve Q said:

One real consequence of Carnival’s beginning so soon is that the results turn out negatively. If people on several ships once again develop the virus, the ramifications for future cruises on any line could face a serious setback. Conversely, if the limited cruises are successful, it would be a huge positive for the entire industry.

 

I do not feel that Carnival should be the "test" for anything!  Rather than a cruise line with a history of problems, why not use a cruise ship that stayed healthy in February and the first half of March as the test. This would show Carnival that it can be done and could show them how!

[Portolan]

1 hour ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

Whatever that is...  Having read the press release, it seems like a limited "toe in the water".  I love how they talk about "home ports", being a non-US company--or is it just the ships that are foreign-flagged?

 

Nope, they (the big ones) are all incorporated in offshore tax havens: NCLH in Bermuda, Carnival in Panama, etc.

[Portolan]

58 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

And it is entirely possible that companies may be shielded from lawsuits...if they are not, the courts will be ties up for years and years over something that was a once in a lifetime event.

 

In what country?  I don't think the US can shield non-US cruise lines (all of the big ones) from being sued...likely in their off-shore tax-sheltered havens.

[Pcardad]

Lol, Bermuda would be first in line to shelter NCLH because they need the money. So many Ex-pats (and thier jobs) have left BDA in recent years that Bermudians are feeling a bite that few of them can remember.

[greykitty]

I suspect any ship that avoided COVID-19 has only luck to thank when it comes down to it.  Look at the Greg Mortimer.  

 

That said, I think an argument could be made that the best thing for the cruise industry in general is to have one of the extremely popular, well-known, mainstream lines, meet all the CDC requirements and have a successful cruise or five executed.  Could be way better for public relations in general.  And, if I recall correctly, Carnival a 'private' island to visit - maybe really helpful in contact tracing down the road, as opposed to open ports?  Just a thought.

 

Also, I think a poster mentioned the demographics on a Carnival cruise may indeed lend itself to such a test.  

 

In any event, Carnival was first off the line with an announcement, no matter how things may change.  Be interesting to hear what's happening in RCL and NCL headquarters now.

[Pcardad]

And with the US death toll predicted to double by June, who is getting on a cruise ship on August 1?

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/coronavirus-live-updates-trump-administration-models-predict-near-doubling-of-daily-death-toll-by-june/ar-BB13zfhE

[Pcardad]

NCL has a private island as well that Regent stops at.

[greykitty]

1 minute ago, Pcardad said:

And with the US death toll predicted to double by June, who is getting on a cruise ship on August 1?

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/coronavirus-live-updates-trump-administration-models-predict-near-doubling-of-daily-death-toll-by-june/ar-BB13zfhE

Indeed - but I had the impression 'realism' wasn't terribly welcome in the neighborhood of late LOL

[Pcardad]

Not sure what you are referring to. IDC what people post...I just like it when they differentiate between fact and opinion.

[Travelcat2]

29 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

And with the US death toll predicted to double by June, who is getting on a cruise ship on August 1?

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/coronavirus-live-updates-trump-administration-models-predict-near-doubling-of-daily-death-toll-by-june/ar-BB13zfhE

 

If that is the case (and I don't believe predictions) it would likely be due to people ignoring distancing, wearing a masks, etc.  

 

greykitty has a point - some of us are hoping to keep negativity off of some threads.  Having 100% negativity threads is hard to deal with (especially when we have so few facts)

[mrlevin]

48 minutes ago, Portolan said:

 

In what country?  I don't think the US can shield non-US cruise lines (all of the big ones) from being sued...likely in their off-shore tax-sheltered havens.

 

The former Attorney General of Florida was great at suing cruise lines.

[Steve Q]

1 hour ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

I do not feel that Carnival should be the "test" for anything!  Rather than a cruise line with a history of problems, why not use a cruise ship that stayed healthy in February and the first half of March as the test. This would show Carnival that it can be done and could show them how!

Sadly, I don’t think that what we would like is going to matter. The first cruises out of the gate will be considered the test, like it or not. It is unlikely that the countries the ships visit are going to admit Regent ships and not Silversea, Seabourn, etc. In the publics’ eye, all will be tarnished. We may not like it, but that is what will occur. Only people on CruiseCritic will know, or care, that some lines have avoided the virus.

[Travelcat2]

4 hours ago, Steve Q said:

Sadly, I don’t think that what we would like is going to matter. The first cruises out of the gate will be considered the test, like it or not. It is unlikely that the countries the ships visit are going to admit Regent ships and not Silversea, Seabourn, etc. In the publics’ eye, all will be tarnished. We may not like it, but that is what will occur. Only people on CruiseCritic will know, or care, that some lines have avoided the virus.

 

I pretty much agree with you - just wishful thinking.  However, the world knows what happened to Carnival's Princess ships and it is likely that it has colored the thinking of many people.  Not everyone realizes that not all cruise lines are created equal (not even on CC - based on some posts).

[mrlevin]

Notice that Carnival comes up with a plan (yes it may have to change over time) but crickets from NCLH except for financial concerns?  Why hasn't NCLH identified ships going to cold layup and which ships they will use to start back up?

 

Marc

[slidebite]

Oct 1, 2020. To London for the Sotheby liquidation auction LOL!

[mrlevin]

It looks like Regent, with the help of the Canadian government, has started a plan for restarting cruises.  In FdR's various interviews he talked about starting Regent with just one ship and then adding ships over a six month period to get to full utilization of all Regent (and other NCLH) ships.  So, here is my latest conjecture using current itineraries (i.e., I didn't move ships to locations that they were not planning to be at).

 

Mariner 5 October LA - LA

 

Navigator 30 October NY - Miami

 

Splendor 28 November Miami - Miami

 

Explorer 6 January Sydney - Auckland

 

Voyager 26 April Barcelona - Athens

 

Basis for my thoughts:  Voyager to Africa is risky as there are a lot of unknowns with flights and virus.  South America is a disaster now and probably will be for a while.  Mariner South America this fall will be turned into more west coast or Caribbean cruises and Voyager winter season in South America will be scrapped.  The big IF in this is whether OZ and NZ will accept cruise ships by next January.  

 

Just my two cents,

 

Marc

[Wendy The Wanderer]

9 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

It looks like Regent, with the help of the Canadian government, has started a plan for restarting cruises.  In FdR's various interviews he talked about starting Regent with just one ship and then adding ships over a six month period to get to full utilization of all Regent (and other NCLH) ships.  So, here is my latest conjecture using current itineraries (i.e., I didn't move ships to locations that they were not planning to be at).

 

Mariner 5 October LA - LA

 

Navigator 30 October NY - Miami

 

Splendor 28 November Miami - Miami

 

Explorer 6 January Sydney - Auckland

 

Voyager 26 April Barcelona - Athens

 

Basis for my thoughts:  Voyager to Africa is risky as there are a lot of unknowns with flights and virus.  South America is a disaster now and probably will be for a while.  Mariner South America this fall will be turned into more west coast or Caribbean cruises and Voyager winter season in South America will be scrapped.  The big IF in this is whether OZ and NZ will accept cruise ships by next January.  

 

Just my two cents,

 

Marc

 

Yes, and of course the 2021 World Cruise is scheduled for January 5th.  Any thoughts on that, Marc?

 

Oh, and btw, I presume you were being sarcastic about the Canadian government helping out.

[mrlevin]

1 minute ago, Wendy The Wanderer said:

 

Yes, and of course the 2021 World Cruise is scheduled for January 5th.  Any thoughts on that, Marc?

 

Oh, and btw, I presume you were being sarcastic about the Canadian government helping out.

 

Wow. I have no idea on World Cruise; maybe just leave Mariner in Caribbean or west coast.

 

The Canadian government forced Regent to cancel all Mariner and Navigator cruises prior to those dates; just left ships with natural starting points.  No sarcasm implied.