Time for NCLH financial-related posts?

[SusieQft]

Splendor Dec. 21 is probably waitlisted for capacity (at least for now), because Dec. 7 & 14 are not waitlisted.  Would Splendor Nov. 15 & 28 be already/still booked as heavily as the Christmas cruise?  Maybe, but it is probably too late to check now.  We should find out soon.

[Travelcat2]

40 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

Personal opinion - I don't think so but I will know soon.

 

Thanks much!

[mrlevin]

1 hour ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

Wishful thinking on your part.  Frank Del Rio isn't going anywhere.  These posts are quite misleading - based non nothing.

 

Can't you read the balance sheet?  NCLH had way too much debt before this all started; they took their chances and then got screwed by the pandemic.  This is exactly the same problem that had happened at Renaissance prior to 9/11.

 

edited to add:  Given that we know that when they put a block of cruises on waitlist that they will eventually be cancelled and when they eventually cancel the stock goes down that day; is anyone shorting NCLH today?

Edited July 8, 2020 by mrlevin

[GrJ Berkshire]

On RSSC Facebook that these are waitlisted prior to cancelling all Oct and Nov cruises.

Now think our Jan cruise on Voyager must be at risk. (BA to Lima)

[Travelcat2]

None of us know what is happening with October and November cruises.  We can guess all that we want but we basically know nothing.  Before Regent resumes cruises, they will likely have to waitlist cruises in order to maintain a lesser capacity.  Whether this is happening for those cruises or not is still a question.  

 

Hopefully Pcardad will have some information soon.  At least he has a pulse on the situation and will give factual information if he is able to.

[Pcardad]

Many/all (?)December cruises to SA waitlisted as well...

 

Don't hold your breath for SA or Africa anytime some. I think the Caribbean will have a shot as going in December.

[mrlevin]

12 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

Many/all (?)December cruises to SA waitlisted as well...

 

Don't hold your breath for SA or Africa anytime some. I think the Caribbean will have a shot as going in December.

 

BA to Rio and Rio to Miami on Mariner in December are NOT "currently" waitlisted; seems kind of silly not to get rid of those itineraries at same time they cancel the LA to BA segments.

 

Marc

[SusieQft]

4 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

BA to Rio and Rio to Miami on Mariner in December are NOT "currently" waitlisted; seems kind of silly not to get rid of those itineraries at same time they cancel the LA to BA segments.

I agree that those segments are extremely unlikely to sail.  But perhaps they can only cancel so many at the same time and still maintain the reasonable turnaround on refunds that they have been able to achieve at present.

[cerise638]

2 hours ago, mrlevin said:

 

Can't you read the balance sheet?  NCLH had way too much debt before this all started; they took their chances and then got screwed by the pandemic.  This is exactly the same problem that had happened at Renaissance prior to 9/11.

 

edited to add:  Given that we know that when they put a block of cruises on waitlist that they will eventually be cancelled and when they eventually cancel the stock goes down that day; is anyone shorting NCLH today?

I think that NCHL has done as much as they can in terms of warning stockholders that they would have limited sailings on limited ships this year and stated they have funding for no cruising for well in 2021

 

If the crisis goes on for longer I think we will all have much deeper concerns than the viability of a cruiseline.  

 

Let's see how all this pans out before predicting bankruptcy for NCHL. If I was a debtor I would not pull the plug on what was pre virus a sound company

 

 

[greykitty]

PwC removes going concern language - this is a  good thing

 

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/norwegian-cruise-line-nclh-auditor-going-concern-warning-removed

 

“Management and we previously concluded there was substantial doubt about the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern,” PriceWaterhouseCoopers said in the report, adding that “management has subsequently taken certain actions, which management and we have concluded remove that substantial doubt.”

 

Also, L Catterton affiliate may be reselling some shares. They also have the right to nominate a director to replace Steve Martinez, who left somewhat abruptly a few weeks back.

 

https://www.seatrade-cruise.com/news/nclh-400m-exchangeable-notes-holder-could-resell-466m-shares

Edited July 9, 2020 by greykitty

[greykitty]

NCLH appoints board director - Scott Dahnke , Global co-Chief Executive Officer of L Catterton.  Catterton is the PE firm that bolstered NCLH's financials a little while back.  

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/norwegian-cruise-line-holdings-ltd-130000785.html

[mrlevin]

New debt offering new stock offering and this:

 

Quote

July 16

 (Reuters) - Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd ( NCLH)

said on Thursday it expected little revenue in the second quarter, as the COVID-19 pandemic brought global tourism to a standstill and forced the company to suspend all voyages for months.

Shares of the cruise operator, which also forecast a full-year loss, fell about 8% in premarket trading.

Crushed by a wave of cancellations and steep fall in bookings, the company said it plans to raise about $925 million in two new bond offerings to ride out the rest of the year and repay a $675 million credit line.

It also plans on raising another $250 million in a new equity offering.

Rival Carnival Corp ( CCL ) said on Wednesday it also plans on raising about $1.26 billion in bond offerings.

Norwegian said it expects to report "insignificant" revenue and cash and cash equivalents of about $2.2 billion for the second quarter ended June 30.

Bookings for 2021 are still within historical averages, Norwegian said, but warned that a global economic downturn could hit demand further. (Reporting by Uday Sampath in Bengaluru; Editing by Shinjini Ganguli)

Edited July 16, 2020 by mrlevin

[loriva]

12 minutes ago, mrlevin said:

Crushed by a wave of cancellations and steep fall in bookings, the company said it plans to raise about $925 million in two new bond offerings to ride out the rest of the year and repay a $675 million credit line.

 

Doesn't sound good for cruises in 2020.

[mrlevin]

21 minutes ago, loriva said:

 

Doesn't sound good for cruises in 2020.

 

Especially as they said they already had enough money to survive shutdown of 18 months.

[pappy1022]

Loading up on more debt at high interest rates is long term suicide. I would expect major cost cutting initiatives. I wonder what their break even passenger count is for each of the ships. It would seem unwise to operate below this capacity level with maybe the exception of a couple of trial cruises to test out their new protocols. I am glad that I got cash refunds and waiting on the sidelines with my cash in hand vs in the hands of Regent.

[GrJ Berkshire]

We are still optimistic over Regent and have put down a deposit on a Splendour cruise in may 21 Southampton- Southampton to North Spain and Bordeaux. As its only an hour from our home so not flights etc. If this does not sail 13 months into the pandemic, you have to think that the cruise industry and Regent  will be in serious trouble with bankruptcies and ships on their way to the breakers yard. I hope not !!

However after a year without sailing ships will need expensive work on them, Splendour could end up as an expensive 'white elephant' . Its hard to see any new ships in the near future?

[mrlevin]

NCLH has increased the new debt offering to $1,150,000,000.  In addition they are issuing as much as $277,000,000 of new stock.  This is after FdR was recently on CNBC saying that they had enough funds to cover the Corporation through the end of 2021.  Something smells fishy.

 

Marc

[wristband]

Pappy: "I am glad that I got cash refunds and waiting on the sidelines with my cash in hand vs in the hands of Regent."

 

That is the only issue which matters in the coming months irrespective of the CDC's decision. 

 

Cash in our hands vs. the hands of NCL.

[Pcardad]

Facts. We have 7 figures with NCL.....and it is all covered in the event of bankruptcy by insurance policies which I require my people to get. Refunds time frames have dropped from 85 days to under 60 days. NCL employees were told yesterday that the corporation has sufficient funds to run through the end of 2021 with no revenue.

 

Personally, I have nothing to be worried about aside form my 100 shares of stock...that and the fact that many people I respect and care about are still on 4 day work weeks.

[mrlevin]

13 minutes ago, Pcardad said:

NCL employees were told yesterday that the corporation has sufficient funds to run through the end of 2021 with no revenue.

 

Same thing that FdR said on CNBC.  The fact that they say that they have sufficient funds to run through end of 2021 whilst still selling cruises for December 2020 is ridiculous.  They should put all cruises through some point in 2021 on waitlist so that they don't accept any more poor fools money that thinks they will sail in the foreseeable future.  When they want to actually cancel is up to them; as fewer and fewer make final payment the amount of work and cash involved becomes minimal.

 

Marc

Edited July 17, 2020 by mrlevin

[rallydave]

1 minute ago, mrlevin said:

 

Same thing that FdR said on CNBC.  The fact that they say that they have sufficient funds to run through end of 2021 whilst still selling cruises for December 2020 is ridiculous.  They should put all cruises through some point in 2021 on waitlist so that they don't accept any more poor fools money that thinks they will sail in 2020.

 

Marc

Also extremely strange that about 2 months ago when NCLH got that big money inflow they said the identical thing about having sufficient money until the end of 2021.  And then this week they are issuing additional stock and selling bonds totally almost a total of another billion dollars that again will carry them thru 2021.    Were they a billion dollars short of the full 2021 in the last go around or ??????????

 

In this case 1 plus 1 does not equal 2???

[Snore42]

I'm amazed Regent is still selling space for the 2021 World Cruise. 

[howiefrommd]

I have a semi-related question.  Unfortunately, I agreed to take a FCC and applied it towards a cruise in January 2022.  If a bankruptcy filing occurs (I would envision a Chapter 11 reorganization) what happens to the FCC?  Also, if the FCC has no value, since it was an FCC, would travel insurance (in my case Allianz) cover it?

[Steve Q]

28 minutes ago, Snore42 said:

I'm amazed Regent is still selling space for the 2021 World Cruise. 

With HAL cancelling their world cruise, it is difficult to imagine that Regent will be continuing with their sailing. They probably should discontinue marketing it. How is it possible to even outline a list of ports to visit when most are shut for an unknown date into the future.  

[Wendy The Wanderer]

4 hours ago, Steve Q said:

With HAL cancelling their world cruise, it is difficult to imagine that Regent will be continuing with their sailing. They probably should discontinue marketing it. How is it possible to even outline a list of ports to visit when most are shut for an unknown date into the future.  

 

With great sadness, I agree.  As someone who dreamt and planned that cruise for about 18 months before we cancelled in April, I fervently wanted it to happen, but my best bet right now is that it won't.  Ecuador and Peru in January?  New Zealand in February? Not bloody likely!  Sorry to be like a broken record.