"Will It Be Safe to Travel When This Is All Over? Will We Even Know?"

[clo]

I thought this was a very solid article.

 

https://www.fodors.com/news/photos/will-it-be-safe-to-travel-when-this-is-all-over-will-we-even-know?utm_source=flyertalk&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=

Edited May 5, 2020 by clo

[lenquixote66]

1 hour ago, clo said:

I thought this was a very solid article.

 

https://www.fodors.com/news/photos/will-it-be-safe-to-travel-when-this-is-all-over-will-we-even-know?utm_source=flyertalk&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=

Solely out of my personal curiosity have you ever done research as part of a job 

 

—

Regarding your question .I believe the first question should be will it ever be safe ?

I have been reading about giant bugs in Japan who are now in Washington state and kill humans in Japan.I read that with personal interest as I have relatives in Seattle.

I honestly cannot think of doing any type of travel because some kind of life threatening virus,etc,is constantly popping up.

[Roger88]

It hasnt been safe before and it wont be now. In my personal opinion, all this Covid situation is overexagurated. To me its just a more complicated form of a flue which kills people every year. Today we have covid, tommorow something else and etc. Just take safety measures, wash your hands and avoid going to places full of people 

[lenquixote66]

2 minutes ago, Roger88 said:

It hasnt been safe before and it wont be now. In my personal opinion, all this Covid situation is overexagurated. To me its just a more complicated form of a flue which kills people every year. Today we have covid, tommorow something else and etc. Just take safety measures, wash your hands and avoid going to places full of people 

You remind me of a politician in California who 2 months ago stated that the virus is a hoax, He celebrated his daughters 9th.birthday by inviting 30 of her friends to a party in his house.One would assume that the parents of these kids are quite ignorant of what is going on in the world.

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, clo said:

I thought this was a very solid article.

 

https://www.fodors.com/news/photos/will-it-be-safe-to-travel-when-this-is-all-over-will-we-even-know?utm_source=flyertalk&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=

 

I ask forgiveness/forbearance for being a little nitpicky:

 

The "R naught" (which I'll use since we cannot subscript letters/numbers on this site) is calculated/discussed in two slightly different but important ways.

 

The basic "R naught" is more or less fixed -- it represents how many people would be infected over time by a single person given a set of standard, almost 'idealized' conditions for spread. This number doesn't change based on vaccination, exposure, social distancing, etc.  It's the number that allows you to compare infectiousness between viruses -- for example, measles is very infectious, with an "R naught" of 12-18, which is one reason why vaccination is SO critical. Whereas with the normal seasonal flu the "R naught" is generally much lower (2-3).  Any virus with an "R naught" of less than 0 will die out over time.

 

What the authors in the quoted article are referencing is the "effective reproduction number" or effective R naught -- not the fixed, basic reproduction number. It's the number that CAN be lowered by vaccination, immunity/exposure, social distancing, etc.

 

Just so we're clear. LOL.

 

Regarding whether or not it will be "safe" to travel.... we need to keep in mind that nothing is ever 100% safe. The key is understanding and managing risk. My own feeling is that -- once the initial spread through the population is finished, and a vaccination arrives that is at least as effective and as utilized as the annual flu shot, the mortality of COVID-19 will not be significantly different from flu.  And just as a reminder, here is the annual number of deaths from each of the most significant causes in the US (apologies that this is from 2014, but the numbers haven't changed appreciably year-on-year ... until now):

 

[lenquixote66]

14 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

I ask forgiveness/forbearance for being a little nitpicky:

 

The "R naught" (which I'll use since we cannot subscript letters/numbers on this site) is calculated/discussed in two slightly different but important ways.

 

The basic "R naught" is more or less fixed -- it represents how many people would be infected over time by a single person given a set of standard, almost 'idealized' conditions for spread. This number doesn't change based on vaccination, exposure, social distancing, etc.  It's the number that allows you to compare infectiousness between viruses -- for example, measles is very infectious, with an "R naught" of 12-18, which is one reason why vaccination is SO critical. Whereas with the normal seasonal flu the "R naught" is generally much lower (2-3).  Any virus with an "R naught" of less than 0 will die out over time.

 

What the authors in the quoted article are referencing is the "effective reproduction number" or effective R naught -- not the fixed, basic reproduction number. It's the number that CAN be lowered by vaccination, immunity/exposure, social distancing, etc.

 

Just so we're clear. LOL.

 

Regarding whether or not it will be "safe" to travel.... we need to keep in mind that nothing is ever 100% safe. The key is understanding and managing risk. My own feeling is that -- once the initial spread through the population is finished, and a vaccination arrives that is at least as effective and as utilized as the annual flu shot, the mortality of COVID-19 will not be significantly different from flu.  And just as a reminder, here is the annual number of deaths from each of the most significant causes in the US (apologies that this is from 2014, but the numbers haven't changed appreciably year-on-year ... until now):

 

I suffer from 9 serious illnesses including one for which there is no cure and like there will not be a cure during the remainder of my lifetime.However,Covid-19;”scares” me and I am doing the very best I can not to get the virus.

I do not believe that this virus can be compared to any flu ever before in the US and any of the illnesses on the graph.

[cruisemom42]

21 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

 

I do not believe that this virus can be compared to any flu ever before in the US and any of the illnesses on the graph.

 

That is partly because you are looking at its first pass through a naive population. ("Naive" meaning they have never experienced it before.)

 

For you, and others in similar situations -- e.g., older, with many risk factors for severe infection -- you are very correct to fear this year's appearance of COVID-19.

 

But down the line, science and previous experience suggest it may well become more like flu.

 

[happy cruzer]

insurance companies are very good at determining risk.  If they cover an item, they have placed a cost on the risk.  Pandemics are excluded from many policies.  When covid

 is not a pandemic and is covered then we have a good idea of the risk/cost from an actuarial view.

[sverigecruiser]

1 hour ago, lenquixote66 said:

You remind me of a politician in California who 2 months ago stated that the virus is a hoax, He celebrated his daughters 9th.birthday by inviting 30 of her friends to a party in his house.One would assume that the parents of these kids are quite ignorant of what is going on in the world.

 

Is it possible that his daughter met the 30 friends in school so that the party really was no extra risk? If not I agree with you that the politician and the parents of these kids were ignorant. 

[clo]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

I ask forgiveness/forbearance for being a little nitpicky:

 

Not in the least. I was hoping you would weigh in and should have tagged you. I'm right in the middle of some chores and will take a good look at this after. Thanks a lot.

[clo]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Regarding whether or not it will be "safe" to travel.... we need to keep in mind that nothing is ever 100% safe.

And I completely agree with you. And really appreciate your explaining so well.

 

The way I interpret the piece is it's not safe now but with time it will become safer. Maybe 2021 and likely 2022. I've said since the "beginning" that we need data. And there's not a lot of it out there right now. Thanks again.

[calliopecruiser]

4 hours ago, Roger88 said:

It hasnt been safe before and it wont be now. In my personal opinion, all this Covid situation is overexagurated. To me its just a more complicated form of a flue which kills people every year. Today we have covid, tommorow something else and etc. Just take safety measures, wash your hands and avoid going to places full of people 

I agree it wasn't safe before, but I entirely disagree that the Covid situation is overblown.

 

It might be like a "more complicated form of the flue (sic)" if we had a vaccine, some pre-existing immunity, and some specific treatments like we do for the flu, but we don't.  Oh, it's also more contagious than the flu.   And, in fact it's so more complicated than the flu that doctors don't even know what's happening to some of their patients because this "respiratory virus" isn't just a respiratory virus at all -- it affects the circulatory system (not just the heart, but all the vessels, and even causes life-threatening anemia or clotting problems); it also can affect the gastrointestinal system, the kidneys, the lungs, and the brain.  Doctors have to keep changing their treatment protocols because it's so new and does so much more than they thought. 

 

In a few years, when there's a vaccine, tests, and some acquired immunity (even partial immunity), then it will be like a complicated flu.  Now it's a disaster. 

[clo]

47 minutes ago, calliopecruiser said:

Now it's a disaster. 

And I don't think that's an exaggeration. We don't know enough. Hopefully yet. And have others have commented on other threads, the complication of pre/post flights, hotels, etc. isn't worth it to us. The trip we had to cancel in March had 16 parts to it. Some really small and some not small at all. Not for at least a year or longer. And I do not want to be quarantined on a ship for weeks. 

[lenquixote66]

4 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

That is partly because you are looking at its first pass through a naive population. ("Naive" meaning they have never experienced it before.)

 

For you, and others in similar situations -- e.g., older, with many risk factors for severe infection -- you are very correct to fear this year's appearance of COVID-19.

 

But down the line, science and previous experience suggest it may well become more like flu.

 

I beg to differer because there has never been a Covid-19 epidemic in the US.

[lenquixote66]

3 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

Is it possible that his daughter met the 30 friends in school so that the party really was no extra risk? If not I agree with you that the politician and the parents of these kids were ignorant. 

The party was in his home .

[cruisemom42]

32 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

I beg to differer because there has never been a Covid-19 epidemic in the US.

 

Yes, but at some point there had also never been a flu pandemic such as those that occurred in 1889 and 1918. And there have been many others throughout time.

 

Some interesting reading here:  https://www.livescience.com/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html

 

[lenquixote66]

3 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Yes, but at some point there had also never been a flu pandemic such as those that occurred in 1889 and 1918. And there have been many others throughout time.

 

Some interesting reading here:  https://www.livescience.com/worst-epidemics-and-pandemics-in-history.html

 

My father was in his mid 20’s during the Spanish Flu and was not affected by it.

I remember the 1957-58 outbreak.Everything you cited on the reference point is valid .

I have no idea how old you are and I am not going to ask but from reading your posts in the 11 years I have been posting on CC boards I know that you are a very intelligent person.Therefore,I would think that you would have to concur with me that there has never been anything like Covid-19 to the degree of the virus.

I read today that 16.7 percent of the residents in the county that I reside in have tested positive for the virus.In my entire lifetime I have personally known only 2 people who had AIDS .

[jeremyosborne81]

10 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

I read today that 16.7 percent of the residents in the county that I reside in have tested positive for the virus.In my entire lifetime I have personally known only 2 people who had AIDS .

It being airborne and spread through touch makes its infectious rate far greater than HIV, that only spreads through fluid transfer.

Still 16.7 percent is how many million people vs 250,000 dead means the likelihood of dying from this disease is small enough to not be a legitimate fear for the majority of people.

Edited May 5, 2020 by jeremyosborne81

[dsrdsrdsr]

Especially under 10s.  It's probably coincidence that the California politician was did no harm because it is apparently very hard for children to transmit this virus.  A study in Iceland, where contact tracing is very thorough, found not a single case of anyone under 18 transmitting the virus to people they lived with.

 

As for "when will it be safe", if they are working on the basis that "safe" means there is no chance of contracting coronavirus, then the answer is never.  They need to redefine "safe".  Cruises are a well known danger-holiday, because of the numbers of cruisers who die.  mostly because a lot of people choose to go and live their last few years, even though it carries a more immediate risk than hiding in the basement and pretending the world isn't there.  We all make our own risk assessments, and the nearer you are to death or incapacity, the less (for many people) there is to lose.

[jeremyosborne81]

4 minutes ago, dsrdsrdsr said:

A study in Iceland, where contact tracing is very thorough, found not a single case of anyone under 18 transmitting the virus to people they lived with.

 

How about those of us who like to pretend we're still 18? 😁

[clo]

2 hours ago, calliopecruiser said:

Now it's a disaster. 

And I don't think that's an exaggeration. We don't know enough. Hopefully yet. And have others have commented on other threads, the complication of pre/post flights, hotels, etc. isn't worth it to us. The trip we had to cancel in March had 16 parts to it. Some really small and some not small at all. Not for at least a year or longer. And I do not want to be quarantined on a ship for weeks. 

[clo]

Here's some interesting math - just for CA:

 

https://abc7news.com/health/expert-predicts-it-will-take-2-years-for-ca-to-return-to-normal-after-covid-19/6154329/

 

"If you set up sites where you can do 50,000 vaccinations a day, you're going to need 800 of those to happen. So it's a formidable task and it's going to take months to get it done. Maybe 18 months. Vaccines are almost in a year from now."
 

[lenquixote66]

53 minutes ago, jeremyosborne81 said:

It being airborne and spread through touch makes its infectious rate far greater than HIV, that only spreads through fluid transfer.

Still 16.7 percent is how many million people vs 250,000 dead means the likelihood of dying from this disease is small enough to not be a legitimate fear for the majority of people.

It is for me personally because I suffer from 9 illnesses.I shan’t be on a cruise until the Covid-19 is eradicated or there is a proven vaccine.That is if I survive everything else.

[navybankerteacher]

2 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

...

 

I read today that 16.7 percent of the residents in the county that I reside in have tested positive for the virus.In my entire lifetime I have personally known only 2 people who had AIDS .

Well, this is as close to meaningless as any statistic can be - without some context..  The  percentage of the population which has been tested is a crucial bit of information.

 

 If just 16.7% of the population has been tested it would mean that everyone tested was positive - indicating that the entire population could be (more likely, has been) infected

 

But if everyone in the population has been tested, it would mean that only a rather small segment has been infected.

[sverigecruiser]

4 hours ago, lenquixote66 said:

The party was in his home .

 

But if they meet at school every day I can't see why meeting at home once is an extra risk.