WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO RESTART CRUISE SHIPS???

[Quo Vadis?]

17 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

 

Over the next Century at least 7 billion people will die.

 

Another "expert" said very early on there are only 15 cases and soon there will be none.

 

We all have our own view of reality.

[mnocket]

4 hours ago, BigAl94 said:

How long before this starts to happen in the cruise industry? https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-car-rental-firm-hertz-files-for-bankruptcy-after-pandemic-losses-11993146

 

It seems many of the major lines have secured capital to keep their heads above water for about a year.  I suspect there will be some bankruptcies, but probably not until sometime next year. 

[ECCruise]

18 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The so-called experts predicted 3 million deaths...they were wrong.

 

 

Citation please.

The worst case estimate that I have seen, but one group only, was slightly over 2 million fatalities.

Which was with absolutely no lock-downs, social distancing or ongoing mitigation.  Letting the virus, in effect, run it's course.

So we need to stop using these numbers (or worse) since the mitigation efforts were started almost immediately.  

 

And cruising will not start, hopefully, until 2 things happen:

1)  We get a much better handle on the means of transmittal, additional health problems, and the antibody question.

2)  People stop dying at the rate of 1000-1500 per day.

[CGTNORMANDIE]

2 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Citation please.

The worst case estimate that I have seen, but one group only, was slightly over 2 million fatalities.

Which was with absolutely no lock-downs, social distancing or ongoing mitigation.  Letting the virus, in effect, run it's course.

So we need to stop using these numbers (or worse) since the mitigation efforts were started almost immediately.  

 

And cruising will not start, hopefully, until 2 things happen:

1)  We get a much better handle on the means of transmittal, additional health problems, and the antibody question.

2)  People stop dying at the rate of 1000-1500 per day.

New York Times March 13th.

 

The antibody question is most likely the key to restart cruising.

Edited May 23, 2020 by CGTNORMANDIE

[ECCruise]

4 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

New York Times March 13th.

Well, I read the NYT every day, virtually from fold to fold online and didn't see it then and sorry, but I don't see it now.  Lots about the equity crash the day before, testing problems, Italy's situation, but nothing that I see about "experts" (plural) predicting 3 million deaths. Since this is the first I've heard of this, would be interested to see these experts where who made the prediction.

Thanks.

[bEwAbG]

5 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

New York Times March 13th

 

What article?  The only thing I see on that date is an article about a range of CDC numbers based on scenario planning that was done in February.  The numbers had not been made public yet.  200,000 on the low end and 1.7M on the high end are the numbers cited for potential deaths in that article and others that reference that article.

 

The headline is "Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths" 

 

Even more interesting is the deck headline: "Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway."

[ECCruise]

5 minutes ago, bEwAbG said:

 

What article?  The only thing I see on that date is an article about a range of CDC numbers based on scenario planning that was done in February.  The numbers had not been made public yet.  200,000 on the low end and 1.7M on the high end are the numbers cited for potential deaths in that article and others that reference that article.

 

The headline is "Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths" 

 

Even more interesting is the deck headline: "Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway."

Thank you.

That is the way I remembered it.  It was the "experts" and "3 million" that I knew was hogwash.  And obviously, even that number, as you mentioned, was without any mitigation.

And the scary thing is, with the US  likely eclipsing 100,000 deaths tomorrow or Monday, the total number, even 2 months after that article, has yet to be written.  That is why I said, in my mind, people need to stop dying at the rate of 1000 to 1500 a day before cruising can start again.

[DaveSJ711]

28 minutes ago, bEwAbG said:

 

What article?  The only thing I see on that date is an article about a range of CDC numbers based on scenario planning that was done in February.  The numbers had not been made public yet.  200,000 on the low end and 1.7M on the high end are the numbers cited for potential deaths in that article and others that reference that article.

 

The headline is "Worst-Case Estimates for U.S. Coronavirus Deaths" 

 

Even more interesting is the deck headline: "Projections based on C.D.C. scenarios show a potentially vast toll. But those numbers don’t account for interventions now underway."

 

Here's the article from the March 13 NYT.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/us/coronavirus-deaths-estimate.html

[BOLOCRUISE]

Our April 11th Celebrity Cruise was cancelled by Celebrity .  We are using our FCC 125% on one of our two cruises we already have booked in 2021.  

 

We then booked B2B Cruises for June 28 and July 4 2020.  Those were just cancelled by Celebrity.  We chose Refund this time because we hate having so much cash in Celebrity's hands.  We obviously were ready to cruise ASAP when we booked our B2B cruise.  We have no fear to cruise or travel.  

 

But now with nothing until August, we are getting too close to our January 2021 cruise. So we are planning another cruise vacation for this summer, hopefully a resort in the Caribbean. 

 

My only thing I am not looking forward to is face masks on planes.  I cannot wear a mask for 6 hours straight, nor will I.

[Pushka]

3 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

New York Times March 13th.

 

The antibody question is most likely the key to restart cruising.

So only people who have had Covid can cruise? Very dangerous precedent there. 

[Retty2Go]

On 5/17/2020 at 8:10 PM, CGTNORMANDIE said:

The largest outbreak in the US was due to the idiotic mishandling of the nursing homes.  61% of the deaths were elderly...mostly nursing homes.  If you removed that 60% you would have 35,000 deaths...not even close to the annual flu deaths.

The elderly work at meat and chicken packing plants?

[cangelmd]

On 5/22/2020 at 7:26 AM, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Of course the so-called expert claims it won’t work.  They are talking about what is available currently.  What they don’t tell you is that THERE WAS NO 5 MINUTE TEST 2 MONTHS AGO.  Advanced technology will give us a 5 minute test that will show asymptomatic people.  I would guess that would be just months from now.  The world is full of nay-sayers and short on doers.  
 

Those of us who love to cruise are going to have to think creatively.  There will be a level of risk and those who do not want to accept that level of risk can simply stay home and wait.  Those of us who are willing can take a chance and press on.  People who are under 60 will probably start cruising sooner than later.  

 

 

 

 

 

My opinion: cruising will start back close to the end of this year or early next. It will be limited in length with few or no foreign ports. It will involve some social distancing and some masking and signing a mountain of paperwork relieving the cruise line of any liability and outlining how you are going to,get yourself back home if you get sick (this will be irrelevant until cruises are 5 days or longer, which I don’t think will be the case initially).

 

What I know is that there is an adage in lab medicine - tests can be fast, cheap or reliable, you can generally get 2 out of the 3, but it is extremely rare to have all 3, and virtually unheard of in infectious disease testing. New technology is wonderful, but the level of accuracy implied by the media is practically impossible with a TAT of 5 minutes. The rapid testing platforms that have been used for Covid or that are being discussed have trade-offs - you will either let people on that are in early stages of infection or deny people boarding that are negative - it is inevitable.

It all comes back to risk, perceived or real, no one sues the airline or cruise ship if you get flu on board. Norovirus is a risk we take on a ship. People find those risks acceptable. I’m not implying that Covid isn’t serious, you do NOT want to be early in this game with a bad case! What I mean is that returning life to normal will most likely require a mixture risk reduction strategies - some treatments, some consensus on effective prevention, prevalence testing so we know what the risk really is and can make sensible educated decisions about how that applies to us.

[CGTNORMANDIE]

37 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

My opinion: cruising will start back close to the end of this year or early next. It will be limited in length with few or no foreign ports. It will involve some social distancing and some masking and signing a mountain of paperwork relieving the cruise line of any liability and outlining how you are going to,get yourself back home if you get sick (this will be irrelevant until cruises are 5 days or longer, which I don’t think will be the case initially).

 

What I know is that there is an adage in lab medicine - tests can be fast, cheap or reliable, you can generally get 2 out of the 3, but it is extremely rare to have all 3, and virtually unheard of in infectious disease testing. New technology is wonderful, but the level of accuracy implied by the media is practically impossible with a TAT of 5 minutes. The rapid testing platforms that have been used for Covid or that are being discussed have trade-offs - you will either let people on that are in early stages of infection or deny people boarding that are negative - it is inevitable.

It all comes back to risk, perceived or real, no one sues the airline or cruise ship if you get flu on board. Norovirus is a risk we take on a ship. People find those risks acceptable. I’m not implying that Covid isn’t serious, you do NOT want to be early in this game with a bad case! What I mean is that returning life to normal will most likely require a mixture risk reduction strategies - some treatments, some consensus on effective prevention, prevalence testing so we know what the risk really is and can make sensible educated decisions about how that applies to us.

Well said...thank you.  It will be interesting to see which cruise line jumps off first.  My money is on Carnival.  Who knows...maybe they will promote cruises for those under 50 since they seem to be able to survive the virus.

[jotjot]

Now,  some people are lining up to get into the casinos and some are staying home afraid to go out. I say gamblers will bet they don't get sick to have a good time.

[CGTNORMANDIE]

6 hours ago, jotjot said:

Now,  some people are lining up to get into the casinos and some are staying home afraid to go out. I say gamblers will bet they don't get sick to have a good time.

Gambling adds another component to the restart.  There will be those pax who choose to cruise in order to play.  Keeping the casino area clean and disinfected will present its own set of problems.  

[Doubt It]

What will it take to restart cruise ships.............

 

Well, I am very interested in the availability of ports.

 

Limited to no port options and or compromised port exploration = no cruise booking.

 

I cruise to see destinations - the ship is not the priority and will be less of a priority given likely on board measures.

 

So until I can expeditiously and creatively see the remaining ports on my list = no cruise booking. 

 

I am working on alternative travel options (excluding cruise ships) to see some specific locations.

 

 

 

 

[ECCruise]

22 minutes ago, Doubt It said:

What will it take to restart cruise ships.............

 

Well, I am very interested in the availability of ports.

 

Limited to no port options and or compromised port exploration = no cruise booking.

 

I cruise to see destinations - the ship is not the priority and will be less of a priority given likely on board measures.

 

So until I can expeditiously and creatively see the remaining ports on my list = no cruise booking. 

 

I am working on alternative travel options (excluding cruise ships) to see some specific locations.

Likewise for us, the ports are the focus (actually the only focus).  And since this is such a fluid situation, the ports that you think you may be visiting may not even be available.

We experienced exactly that in March when 6 of the ports where we were scheduled cancelled our call at the last minute (3 of them the night before docking was scheduled).  That is in addition to our disembarkation port cancelling which required the cruise line to scramble to find a place to disembark us.  Thankfully, Oman, to whom we will be eternally grateful, allowed us to disembark and get home.

Due to that experience I am a little reticent (😧 actually a LOT reticent) to get on any cruise ship until this thing settles out.

[Doubt It]

23 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Likewise for us, the ports are the focus (actually the only focus).  And since this is such a fluid situation, the ports that you think you may be visiting may not even be available.

We experienced exactly that in March when 6 of the ports where we were scheduled cancelled our call at the last minute (3 of them the night before docking was scheduled).  That is in addition to our disembarkation port cancelling which required the cruise line to scramble to find a place to disembark us.  Thankfully, Oman, to whom we will be eternally grateful, allowed us to disembark and get home.

Due to that experience I am a little reticent (😧 actually a LOT reticent) to get on any cruise ship until this thing settles out.

 

ECCruise.  Exactly.

Had a Canada/USA zoom with friends yesterday to celebrate Memorial Day, yeh America and blessings to the service people.

 

We all have cruised but none are interested in cruising going forward. While we were enjoying many brands of white wine during the zoom, one friend said, if the ports are of limited interest to many cruisers - why don't they tie up somewhere and stay there for a week or two.  Then ports would not matter.

 

For those who primarily cruise to see the world - time to move on and plan customized land tours where you would really see the locations you want.