WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO RESTART CRUISE SHIPS???

[npcl]

15 minutes ago, yorky said:

I guess that’s a bit of a wind up given no one has a clue regarding immunity.

Lots of research on Corona viruses as a class.  I just referenced one paper on on the common cold strains.  Usually on known corona viruses immunity from infection good for about a year with the number of antibodies decreasing with time.

 

As I indicated the comment about limited time frame was from previous research on the class, not the specific COVID-19

Edited May 10, 2020 by npcl

[ECCruise]

34 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

This has been a very good thread so far.  
 

We will need a machine that will process 1,000 tests in 15 minutes or less.

Emirates is starting this process.  And you aren't going to need to screen a whole ship in 45 minutes.

We will need crews to be quarantined before boarding the ship.

Likely WILL happen.

We will need a way to isolate and remove an infected pax quickly for any disease

CDC will require..

We will need island cooperation for hospitalization.

They won't.  Aye, there's a rub.
We will need pax to wear masks and social distance when going through the boarding and testing process.  This applies to ships and planes.

Agreed.

We will need airlines to do the same.

Already are.
We will need less crowded cruise ships.  

Duh.
We will need crews to monitor and control more closely removing offending pax.

CDC will require.
We will need islands to cooperate with cruise lines.  

Some will, many will not.  
 

Anyone care to add or elaborate??

 

[sheffield]

30 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

If we are to get our economy up and running then we will have to accept the possibility of infection.  Elderly and medically vulnerable will have to continue to shelter if they are so inclined.  If we want to cruise we will also have to accept the possibility of infection as long as systems have been put in place that will prevent a recurrence of the past months.  

So as a medically vulnerable person my options are stay in for ever or die? Wow that’s some choice. It sounds like you don’t care and I’m afraid that is rapidly becoming the feeling in the US as well. I find it rather scary and depressing. 

[CGTNORMANDIE]

7 minutes ago, sheffield said:

So as a medically vulnerable person my options are stay in for ever or die? Wow that’s some choice. It sounds like you don’t care and I’m afraid that is rapidly becoming the feeling in the US as well. I find it rather scary and depressing. 

Wow...some people love to argue for the sake of arguing.  What part of “if they are so inclined” did you not understand??  OBTW  I will bet you that I am way more vulnerable to Covid 19 than you are.  I just chose not to be crippled by it.  

[markeb]

52 minutes ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

This has been a very good thread so far.  
 

We will need a machine that will process 1,000 tests in 15 minutes or less.

We will need crews to be quarantined before boarding the ship.

We will need a way to isolate and remove an infected pax quickly for any disease.

We will need island cooperation for hospitalization.
We will need pax to wear masks and social distance when going through the boarding and testing process.  This applies to ships and planes.

We will need airlines to do the same.
We will need less crowded cruise ships.  
We will need crews to monitor and control more closely removing offending pax.
We will need islands to cooperate with cruise lines.  
 

Anyone care to add or elaborate??

 

It's a set of individual steps still not tied together for a common goal, or a clear purpose for each step. Buzzword bingo, but a systems approach. And that's not on you; that seems to be what we're hearing from the industry.

 

Why do you need to do 1000 tests? Which test? What's the purpose? How much risk do you mitigate by testing? High throughput tests tend to be high complexity, require skilled operators, and take time. But you can do a lot of tests that way. Rapid tests tend to be low complexity, not require as much skill, but are typically expensive. Doing both in the same test, if it even makes sense, will likely be the expensive to develop and very expensive to use. So you've got to buy down a LOT of risk o make that worth while.

 

How much risk are you mitigating by quarantining the crew? For how long? No port stops for them? They're equally vulnerable to catching the virus from a passenger once on board.

 

Etc. I'll argue that only when you go through a complete end to end assessment and figure out where you're really buying down risk will you make headway. Right now I'm hearing "testing" with no real discussion as to why or what to do with the results, as an example.

 

I'm not suggesting any of those steps are wrong, but they go together, and there's almost certainly an optimal mix that needs to be studied and determined.

 

 

[sheffield]

It’s not a case of arguing for the sake of arguing it’s just plain facts. If I’m inclined to stay in I live, if I’m inclined to go out my doctors say I would be extremely vulnerable to catching it and most likely would die. It’s not a case of choosing to be crippled by it, it’s a case of choosing to live. 

[danv3]

4 hours ago, markeb said:

IMHO, the worst thing the industry can do is throw together a half-baked set of measures and have another infected ship. They really have one shot. I don't know that it has to be perfect, but it has to be pretty close. And if they're doing a cold, logical review and the answer keeps being "we don't know", they don't have the data to implement that control measure, and if it's critical, they're stuck.

 

This is a huge point.  Given all the over-the-top bad press focused on cruiselines already, the margin of error is now basically zero.  If there's an outbreak associated with one of the early cruises, it could be the end of cruising on any kind of scale.  Yes, seriously.

[ECCruise]

2 minutes ago, danv3 said:

 

This is a huge point.  Given all the over-the-top bad press focused on cruiselines already, the margin of error is now basically zero.  If there's an outbreak associated with one of the early cruises, it could be the end of cruising on any kind of scale.  Yes, seriously.

Totally agree.

And that is why I am in awe of Carnival's rush to put ships back in the water, but more importantly, some pax rush to be back on ships.

[Oceangoer2]

1 hour ago, kwokpot said:

You make excellent points that few around here on CC has brought up.

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by oceangoer2

[cruising sister]

11 minutes ago, sheffield said:

It’s not a case of arguing for the sake of arguing it’s just plain facts. If I’m inclined to stay in I live, if I’m inclined to go out my doctors say I would be extremely vulnerable to catching it and most likely would die. It’s not a case of choosing to be crippled by it, it’s a case of choosing to live. 

I agree with staying safe until we have it under control and we all hope to sail in the future. As a doctor I take offense when people say they don’t need to worry because it is their choice if they get sick. I guarantee you they will be seeking medical care if they get critically ill and putting me and other first line workers at risk. We don’t want to die either. I have future cruises booked and I am crossing my fingers I will be able to go. Patience is what is needed. We will get past this. 

 

[kwokpot]

2 minutes ago, oceangoer2 said:

Because perhaps we're all trying to be politically correct and not stew the political pot?

That has nothing to do with politics and all about abiding by the rules THE CRUISELINES setup. The cruiseline says you can't claim  a sunlounger and then leave it unoccupied for the whole morning yet no one abides by that rule. So history demonstrates that there will be plenty of people that won't abide to the new rules that will be in place to prevent the spread of covid19.

[Blackduck59]

1 minute ago, oceangoer2 said:

Because perhaps we're all trying to be politically correct and not stew the political pot?

 

There is a reason why many people on here are holding back. We have been cautioned about politics and should we comment on a certain "leader" from a nation south of my country, the result is swift and the posts removed. 

[Oceangoer2]

1 hour ago, yorky said:

I guess that’s a bit of a wind up given no one has a clue regarding immunity.

I remember you saying your inlaws next door to your MIL (I think) were being tested...how are they?  Hopefully all came out well for them.

[Oceangoer2]

5 minutes ago, cruising sister said:

I agree with staying safe until we have it under control and we all hope to sail in the future. As a doctor I take offense when people say they don’t need to worry because it is their choice if they get sick. I guarantee you they will be seeking medical care if they get critically ill and putting me and other first line workers at risk. We don’t want to die either. I have future cruises booked and I am crossing my fingers I will be able to go. Patience is what is needed. We will get past this. 

 

Thank you very much for your front line service...we all appreciate it and nothing personal but hope we never have to visit you for the discussed reason.

[Oceangoer2]

8 minutes ago, kwokpot said:

That has nothing to do with politics and all about abiding by the rules THE CRUISELINES setup. The cruiseline says you can't claim  a sunlounger and then leave it unoccupied for the whole morning yet no one abides by that rule. So history demonstrates that there will be plenty of people that won't abide to the new rules that will be in place to prevent the spread of covid19.

Because perhaps we're all trying to be polite and not offend others' opinions? (cleaned it up.....thx for reminding me...LOL)

[cruising sister]

3 minutes ago, oceangoer2 said:

Thank you very much for your front line service...we all appreciate it and nothing personal but hope we never have to visit you for the discussed reason.

I turn 65 in October and had planned to retire at the end of this year. Covid 19 has turned that upside down. Never thought I would end my career in a pandemic. I think there will be some great changes we make in infection control on cruise ships that will benefit both passengers and staff going forward. 

[ECCruise]

And here, for your dining pleasure, is a restaurant that illegally opened in Colorado today.  Preview of cruise ship restaurants?

And my point is, no matter how much cruise lines will try to regulate or plan for common sense approaches, will people even pay the slightest bit of attention?

 

Edited May 10, 2020 by ECCruise

[jelayne]

4 hours ago, ECCruise said:

I think we will have a lot of information available in the next month, not on cruise lines, but on the states that are opening now.  Either things will not spike or Darwin will rise from the grave.  Or something in between (also not a positive).

No matter how many suggestions are out there for social distancing, wearing masks in public places and the like, this was a TJ Maxx store in Arkansas, just yesterday.  No reason why, even with new procedures from the cruise lines, that the Atrium or Oceanview Cafe wouldn't look just like this.

Apparently Arkansas is 100% open.  Here stores are limited to 25% so common to see a line outside a grocery or other store as someone leaves the next person can  enter.  No state mandate to wear a mask.  We are in a rural area with only 2 cases in the county.  I would say about 40% wear masks in stores.

 

[Oceangoer2]

11 minutes ago, cruising sister said:

I turn 65 in October and had planned to retire at the end of this year. Covid 19 has turned that upside down. Never thought I would end my career in a pandemic. I think there will be some great changes we make in infection control on cruise ships that will benefit both passengers and staff going forward. 

Then out of  the great infection control benefits which may be a result of this virus, maybe some good will come from bad...as well...besides all the good work you've done during your career, think of all the added good you're now having a chance to do for those inflicted with this virus.......and be as careful as you can be!

[wrk2cruise]

I really do hope that the cruise lines require their crew enforce the rules and have management support as the survival of their industry depends on it.   There will be no place for these self entitled people on ships.

[Georgia_Peaches]

1 minute ago, jelayne said:

Apparently Arkansas is 100% open.  Here stores are limited to 25% so common to see a line outside a grocery or other store as someone leaves the next person can  enter.  No state mandate to wear a mask.  We are in a rural area with only 2 cases in the county.  I would say about 40% wear masks in stores.

 

Just got a pedicure today.  Feeling guilty?  Not at all.  The salon took plenty of measures from social distancing to Plexiglas between worker and patron.  All were required to wash hands upon entering and wear a mask .  Technicians wore protective face shields in addition to masks.  I felt safe.  Life must go on.

[cangelmd]

7 hours ago, CGTNORMANDIE said:

Hi Prim8,

 

Abbott Labs are currently producing 50,000  5 minute tests per day.  If passengers (pax) arrive at terminal and enter wearing masks and then are tested in the terminal as part of the security process then pax would be able to go onboard a ship that is totally negative.  The test also identifies those who are incubating.  You either have it or you don’t.  A ship that has tested negative can sail without much worry.  The problem then would be where to land?  Most likely the only island would be the private island.  Unless arrangements could be made for an isolation area on an island I’m afraid there are no fast answers.  If by some chance a pax show signs of any virus they would be isolated and removed from the ship immediately...by prior arrangement.  The cruise lines will design new methods of handling crew and passengers just as the airlines will have to do.

And what is Abbott's 5 minute test?

[ECCruise]

6 minutes ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

Just got a pedicure today.  Feeling guilty?  Not at all.  The salon took plenty of measures from social distancing to Plexiglas between worker and patron.  All were required to wash hands upon entering and wear a mask .  Technicians wore protective face shields in addition to masks.  I felt safe.  Life must go on.

I don''t think most have a problem with such a setup. Well thought out. And likely could be replicated in a ship spa. 

But what about dining?  Theaters?  Tenders?  Bars?  Buffets?  Main dining room? Lining up to enter the ship?  To exit the ship?

Trivia games?  Functions in Celebrity Central? 

The list goes on and on.  And with what has happened nationwide this weekend speaks volumes that largely, Americans are nowhere close to accepting the conditions that would be absolutely crucial on a cruise ship.  Without that, as far as cruising goes,  life cannot go on.

Even though we have 11 booked, we will wait this out.

[Baron Barracuda]

5 hours ago, npcl said:

However that is 5 minutes for 1 test on 1 machine.  For 1000 people that would be 5000 minutes of machine time 83.3 hours of processing time. To get it down to a reasonable wait you will need 30 machines.  Then what happens if anyone waiting in the terminal tests positive? You need to make sure that everyone is isolated during the boarding process otherwise 1 positive result might mean exposure to others.

 

A rather difficult process, considering that cruise lines have trouble during normal boarding.  

It will be a long time before the entire cruise industry gets 30 high speed machines, let alone one ship.  DD is a nephrologist at two level 1 trauma centers in the midwest where they have limited testing equipment and little ppe.  Here in NJ where we have over 100k cases and 9k dead until recently it was almost impossible to get tested if you were asymptomatic.  Many tests still take up to a week to return results.  IMO every piece of new high speed testing equipment  belongs in a front line hospital, not a cruise port.  After hospital's needs are satisfied they can think about supplying businesses including cruise lines.  That likely won't be this year though. 

[Georgia_Peaches]

2 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

I don''t think most have a problem with such a setup. Well thought out. And likely could be replicated in a ship spa. 

But what about dining?  Theaters?  Tenders?  Bars?  Buffets?  Main dining room? Lining up to enter the ship?  To exit the ship?

Trivia games?  Functions in Celebrity Central? 

The list goes on and on.  And with what has happened nationwide this weekend speaks volumes that largely, Americans are nowhere close to accepting the conditions that would be absolutely crucial on a cruise ship.  Without that, as far as cruising goes,  life cannot go on.

Even though we have 11 booked, we will wait this out.

Jeez, you are so right as it relates to cruising.  Sadly, my head is not in the cruising clouds right now.  Just trying to find some normalcy in my every day life.  I completely agree, these measures cannot be replicated on a ship.  We will stay home until that changes.  Perhaps we will cheers to each other on a cruise someday!