WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO RESTART CRUISE SHIPS???

[OceanCruise]

1 minute ago, ECCruise said:

Could you provide a citation for that data?  I am finding nothing even remotely close to what you are claiming, not from the CDC, not from the University of Washington study, not from anywhere. 

Most data indicates a mortality rate between 10 and 15 times higher than seasonal influenza.  Would love it if your data was right, though.

Here are the official CDC statistics from today. You can see the downward trend since mid April

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

[ECCruise]

5 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

Here are the official CDC statistics from today. You can see the downward trend since mid April

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

That shows no correlation between COVID-19 and seasonal flu mortality as a percentage of case instances.

[OceanCruise]

8 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Could you provide a citation for that data?  I am finding nothing even remotely close to what you are claiming, not from the CDC, not from the University of Washington study, not from anywhere. 

Most data indicates a mortality rate between 10 and 15 times higher than seasonal influenza.  Would love it if your data was right, though.

 

 

2017-2018 influenza deaths were about 61,000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

 

[OceanCruise]

2014-2015 influenza deaths 51,000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2014-2015.html

[ECCruise]

Just now, OceanCruise said:

 

 

2017-2018 influenza deaths were about 61,000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

 

Correct.  Out of 45,000,000 case instances.  For a mortality rate of .1% give or take.

Current COVID-19 mortality rates are running 1.0 to 1.3%.  That would be between 10 to 13 times higher.  Not lower.

[markeb]

22 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

Here are the official CDC statistics from today. You can see the downward trend since mid April

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

You do understand that's not what that graph shows? The orange trend line is expected number of deaths during that time period.  Only the last few bars have anything to do with COVID-19, and the actual deaths are all above the trend line for that period? The trend line predicts that deaths from all causes should be trending down; the blue bars and + signs are actual data. For the April 18 reporting period, over 28% of actual deaths were "excess". 

[kwokpot]

1 minute ago, OceanCruise said:

 

 

2017-2018 influenza deaths were about 61,000

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm

You are incorrect with your assumptions.

https://www.ft.com/content/6bd88b7d-3386-4543-b2e9-0d5c6fac846c

 

https://nyti.ms/34QerxA

 

[OceanCruise]

11 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

You do understand that's not what that graph shows? The orange trend line is expected number of deaths during that time period.  Only the last few bars have anything to do with COVID-19, and the actual deaths are all above the trend line for that period? The trend line predicts that deaths from all causes should be trending down; the blue bars and + signs are actual data. For the April 18 reporting period, over 28% of actual deaths were "excess". 

The graph you described is not the link I provided. Here it is again. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

If you go to my link and scroll down you can see CDC statistics/case numbers from week to week in the US. It shows April 11 as being peak with 13,000 deaths from Covid. Every week since then Covid mortality has declined. My link also shows weekly deaths from pneumonia, influenza and percentage of overall deaths. Surprisingly influenza deaths are extremely low this year.

[az_tchr]

46 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

Here are the official CDC statistics from today. You can see the downward trend since mid April

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Remove New York from those numbers and most states are showing increasing numbers. 

 Same thing for countries that had little virus in February and March like Russia and Brazil.

With most of the US in some form of lockdown one might expect fewer cases.  Now that many states - with upward or flat case numbers - are opening, what will that bring?

[markeb]

8 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

The graph you described is not the link I provided. Here it is again. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

If you go to my link and scroll down you can see CDC statistics/case numbers from week to week in the US. It shows April 11 as being peak with 13,000 deaths from Covid. Every week since then Covid mortality has declined. My link also shows weekly deaths from pneumonia, influenza and percentage of overall deaths. Surprisingly influenza deaths are extremely low this year.

 

Not surprised on influenza. The control measures in place for COVID-19 minimize respiratory disease spread, and that would include influenza. 

 

You did see the footnote?

 

*Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death.

 

They don't make an effort to indicate how complete the data are for any reporting week. For instance, they show 591 reported deaths (so far) for the last reporting week. I think we had more than that here in the DMV alone. So April 11 isn't necessarily peak; it's just a more complete reporting period. This is a notorious problem with public health statistics in the US, and has  been for generations.

Edited May 11, 2020 by markeb

[kwokpot]

5 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

The graph you described is not the link I provided. Here it is again. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

If you go to my link and scroll down you can see CDC statistics/case numbers from week to week in the US. It shows April 11 as being peak with 13,000 deaths from Covid. Every week since then Covid mortality has declined. My link also shows weekly deaths from pneumonia, influenza and percentage of overall deaths. Surprisingly influenza deaths are extremely low this year.

In every single country where Covid-19 is current the mortality rate is far above the historical mortality rate for the same period. In New York City, the mortality rate for all deaths is 277% ABOVE the historical average for this same 2 month period. These statistics show the deaths currently attributed to Covid19 are NOT deaths that would have occurred for other reasons. If anything the deaths attributed to Covid19 are under-reported, NOT over-reported.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/21/world/coronavirus-missing-deaths.html

[OceanCruise]

What source would you use then for official US statistics besides the CDC? Also, it is important to distinguish statistics regarding death WITH Covid versus death FROM Covid. 

[az_tchr]

8 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

The graph you described is not the link I provided. Here it is again. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

If you go to my link and scroll down you can see CDC statistics/case numbers from week to week in the US. It shows April 11 as being peak with 13,000 deaths from Covid. Every week since then Covid mortality has declined. My link also shows weekly deaths from pneumonia, influenza and percentage of overall deaths. Surprisingly influenza deaths are extremely low this year.

What would be interesting is to examine the number of deaths at home.  In Maryland they doubled this spring.  How many are COVID?  Influenza?  We will never know.

I remember that Arizona last year had few cases of flu proven by testing but several hundreds of deaths on death certificates.  Suspect the same with COVID as testing here is available, but few are tested.  Consistent 8% infection rate with COVID.  No increase or decrease.  Hot dry weather has not reduced cases as hoped.

PS an 8% infection rate extrapolates to hundreds of thousands in just Arizona with under 15K reported.  Hmmm.

[markeb]

7 minutes ago, OceanCruise said:

What source would you use then for official US statistics besides the CDC? Also, it is important to distinguish statistics regarding death WITH Covid versus death FROM Covid. 

 

You may be able to do that in about two years. That's  how this works in an epidemic. Things settle down, you go back and abstract clinical records (where that's allowed), and you hire coders to blindly code the cause of death based on some criteria. Costs a lot of money. You need smart people to actually do that.

 

We don't do autopsies with any regularity in this country, and you'd need a complete autopsy, to include tissue samples, to have any real hope of making that difference on without doing the retrospective studies of the clinical records. And then you've got the basic issue that if you die of sepsis while Flu A positive and SARS-CoV-2 positive (my MIL, BTW, I do have skin in this game), was the sepsis the proximal cause of death and the other two contributing causes of death? 

 

The CDC data is the national data. It's just notoriously late. Something to do with Alexander Hamilton and James Madison.

Edited May 11, 2020 by markeb

[begood2me]

I find it amazing how so many people are trying to minimize the virus as if 80K people in the USA alone have not died when we are in shut down.  Comparing the mortality rate to any other period where we are not shut down is a false equivalency to start with. Simple facts, the virus is highly contagious and the mortality rate is much higher than any reasonable person would accept as a risk.  How many of you get in a car without putting on your seat belt now?  That would be safer walking into a crowded theater right now! Much, much, much safer!

 

[hcat]

Agree this  disease is very contagious, dangerous and  potentially fatal for many.

 

How will anyone ever really know the true cause  or causes of death?

 

Supposedly dh and I had flu in Feb..never been so wickedly sick but never went to a dr ....afraid we'd get sicker going there.  Now we suspect it was Covid  but how will we ever be sure?

 

From a lay persons view,  statistics and numbers only go so far..,esp with the rush to process  overwhemling #s of cases and multiple contributing factors.....

Edited May 11, 2020 by hcat

[DaveSJ711]

1 hour ago, OceanCruise said:

Is it possible hospitals are misclassifying Covid deaths because that diagnosis is reimbursed at a much higher rate than influenza or pneumonia?

 

This is a popular canard that stems from a Minnesota state senator's interview on Fox News in early April.  In a more recent interview with FactCheck.org, however, the gentleman clarified that he did not think that hospitals were intentionally misclassifying cases for financial reasons.  https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/hospital-payments-and-the-covid-19-death-count/

[ECCruise]

I think it is important to remember that we are going back and forth here, some with some really questionable information, while the cruise companies are working to make a decision to go forward.

And they have the true picture, trust me.  They know that unless there are major changes in the way cruise ships operate, they will be putting themselves at a precarious position of liability.

Even though our Administration is trying to get restrictions on any kind of liability for deaths that occur in meat processing plants if workers are forced to return and get sick, no such protection will exist for cruise companies.  As someone has said, I believe on this thread, if the cruise lines don't figure this out down to the nth degree and there is a breakout and deaths on a cruise going forward, you can kiss this form of travel goodbye forever.

[markeb]

1 minute ago, ECCruise said:

As someone has said, I believe on this thread, if the cruise lines don't figure this out down to the nth degree and there is a breakout and deaths on a cruise going forward, you can kiss this form of travel goodbye forever.

 

I think that was me...

 

And, FWIW, we've beat this horse pretty well, again. And it again went off into what's the virus do, not what does the cruise line do about it. And I took the bait again...

 

The last one of these, Anne trimmed and closed. She's probably about  to do the same when she has time.

 

I will stick to the basic premise that they've got to have a method to get to acceptable risk. I will expand that only to the point that if the only way residual risk = acceptable risk is a vaccine, there will be no cruising for a very long time, and they're going to do everything they can think of for that not to be the case. I don't know if they'll be successful...

[bEwAbG]

I know I also read somewhere (I don't remember where) that the number of reported flu deaths are an estimate based on an algorithm CDC uses to approximate the annual total with the rationale that some deaths from flu are likely under-reported since not everyone gets a flu test.  Those are not actual confirmed cases being counted one by one.  However, the number of COVID-19 deaths is currently an actual count of people who have died from it.  In other words, an apples to oranges scenario that is being used misleadingly to downplay the death rate of the coronavirus.  I really wish I could remember the source but don't have time to search for it right now.  

[markeb]

12 minutes ago, bEwAbG said:

I know I also read somewhere (I don't remember where) that the number of reported flu deaths are an estimate based on an algorithm CDC uses to approximate the annual total with the rationale that some deaths from flu are likely under-reported since not everyone gets a flu test.  Those are not actual confirmed cases being counted one by one.  However, the number of COVID-19 deaths is currently an actual count of people who have died from it.  In other words, an apples to oranges scenario that is being used misleadingly to downplay the death rate of the coronavirus.  I really wish I could remember the source but don't have time to search for it right now.  

 

It's on the CDC's flu page. Don't feel like looking for it again right now either.

[npcl]

3 hours ago, OceanCruise said:

Here are some studies about limitations of masks based on the actual science. 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

 

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison?fbclid=lwAR0IZUfKjBqw-4sh

 

Here are the official CDC statistics from today. You can see the downward trend since mid April

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

 

This is a commentary not a study but you apparently missed this paragraph in it that described exactly why masks should be worn to function as a source control. Strike 1

 

Surgical masks likely have some utility as source control (meaning the wearer limits virus dispersal to another person) from a symptomatic patient in a healthcare setting to stop the spread of large cough particles and limit the lateral dispersion of cough particles. They may also have very limited utility as source control or PPE in households.

 

Here are some studies about limitations of masks based on the actual science. 

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/04/commentary-masks-all-covid-19-not-based-sound-data

 

This one is dealing with the masks in protecting health care workers.  Again that is not the purpose of the cloths masks. Strike 2

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/

 

This last one was a study to measure virus 5 inches from the mask.  Again the purpose of the mask is to reduce air velocity to limits the distance the virus spreads from the source. The masks are intended to cut the air velocity to cut the distance.  Strike 3

 

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison?fbclid=lwAR0IZUfKjBqw-4sh

 

THe chart you reference below are provisional.  As stated on the CDC web site

 

Why these numbers are different

Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.

 

 

 

Here are the official CDC statistics from today. You can see the downward trend since mid April

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/index.htm

Edited May 11, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

2 hours ago, OceanCruise said:

What source would you use then for official US statistics besides the CDC? Also, it is important to distinguish statistics regarding death WITH Covid versus death FROM Covid. 

State health departments is the usual source.  Which is usually more accurate than CDC.

[Oceangoer2]

3 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Could you provide a citation for that data?  I am finding nothing even remotely close to what you are claiming, not from the CDC, not from the University of Washington study, not from anywhere. 

Most data indicates a mortality rate between 10 and 15 times higher than seasonal influenza.  Would love it if your data was right, though.

There are so many stats out there....and some are inaccurate in that they're not medically supported and sometimes loosely created to suit that particular person in authority's argument. ..... and some have 'heard it somewhere' and repeat what they've 'heard' so that they become skewed.  There are too many cases and deaths in too short a time to discount that this CV19 is on a par with the major killing viruses and should not be compared to the yearly flu, which have updated shots, and which too many people won't take because they either think it does no good or they won't get it anyway because they're healthy.  This exposes the general populace and inflates the flu numbers each year.

[Oceangoer2]

2 hours ago, hcat said:

Agree this  disease is very contagious, dangerous and  potentially fatal for many.

 

How will anyone ever really know the true cause  or causes of death?

 

Supposedly dh and I had flu in Feb..never been so wickedly sick but never went to a dr ....afraid we'd get sicker going there.  Now we suspect it was Covid  but how will we ever be sure?

 

From a lay persons view,  statistics and numbers only go so far..,esp with the rush to process  overwhemling #s of cases and multiple contributing factors.....

I hope you'll soon be able to get an antibody test....very important to someone as ill as you have been in that particular time frame.