How will passenger numbers on future P&O Cruises be reduced?

[terrierjohn]

32 minutes ago, Denarius said:

A random thought. If all passengers and crew had tested positive for antibodies and were immune, social distancing would not be necessary. So would it be possible to sail one of the smaller ships with an immune (or if/when available vaccinated) crew and only accept similar passengers? I suppose it would depend on what proportion of the population fell into that category and whether it representad a big enough potential market to sell enough cabins to make it profitable.

The problem is that the experts dont know if or for how long these antibodies would give you immunity.

[Son of Anarchy]

1 hour ago, Denarius said:

A random thought. If all passengers and crew had tested positive for antibodies and were immune, social distancing would not be necessary. So would it be possible to sail one of the smaller ships with an immune (or if/when available vaccinated) crew and only accept similar passengers? I suppose it would depend on what proportion of the population fell into that category and whether it representad a big enough potential market to sell enough cabins to make it profitable.

As maybe not so interesting aside, I heard that in Russia they are paying people who have tested positive for Covid 19 antibodies to donate blood.  Apparently its 5,000 roubles a pint.

[Harry Peterson]

10 minutes ago, Son of Anarchy said:

As maybe not so interesting aside, I heard that in Russia they are paying people who have tested positive for Covid 19 antibodies to donate blood.  Apparently its 5,000 roubles a pint.

A pint?  That’s very nearly...........

[Pine Man]

...............an armful!

[tring]

17 hours ago, P&O SUE said:

Interesting - when I was on hold to P&O this morning one of the hold ‘messages’ said  they were working on ways to make cruising ‘safe’

 

Interesting as I have just read the latest email from Fred which was along the same line.  It also said they are working with other cruise lines to work out what the announcement made at the beginning of this week mean for them and that they are working with the Shipping minister and dept of Transport.  So looks like some realistic thoughts, rather than works of fiction by individual cruise lines. Excerpt form that here:-

 

 

Sailing commencement Following the announcements earlier this week, we – like many businesses – are working out what this might mean for us. I have been working closely with a number of other cruise lines to consider what a future in cruising might look like. This has included regular calls with the UK Shipping Minister and the Department for Transport, working together to consider what needs to be done before we can resume sailing. Cruise ships already have stringent sanitisation procedures in place, but the industry is looking at implementing enhanced operating procedures, right from when a booking is made to the holiday itself and then leaving the ship at the end of the cruise. It’s about the whole experience, the whole journey. Of course, we can’t wait to resume cruising and to begin welcoming guests back on board our ships, but I must stress that we will only recommence sailing once it is safe, and the world is ready for us to do so. I will keep you up to date with our plans as they progress.

Must say though that as we got our refund from Fred regards our mid April cruise a week or so ago and their better customer service in general over this, we would be more likely to book with them than P&O in the future.

 

 

Edited May 14, 2020 by tring

[zap99]

4 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

The problem is that the experts dont know if or for how long these antibodies would give you immunity.

If at all.

[tring]

4 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

The problem is that the experts dont know if or for how long these antibodies would give you immunity.

 

But that is something they are keen to work out and a lot being put into research and stats at present.  Hence they will almost certainly have at least a fair idea about that by the time a vaccine becomes available. - if it does of course.

[KnowTheScore]

On ‎5‎/‎12‎/‎2020 at 8:10 PM, Harry Peterson said:

On a slightly different tack, the conclusion they may reach is that for the time being cruising will just have to go back to the pre-Carnival P&O days when quality was the priority, rather than price.

 

The product now is very different (Saturday night ITV audience targeted it seems from the CEO's recent comments) from the 'old' product, but it may well be that the old product is the only one that will make money if passenger numbers have to be reduced dramatically.

 

Much higher prices, of course, some dramatic refurbs needed, and a complete rethink about the product on offer.

 

 

I tend to agree and have said as much on another thread.   The entire business model and intended strategy they had, which was to create a fleet of mega ships with 5000+pax each and gain tons of profit from on-board spend, is now surely out of the window.  Simply not tenable unless the powers that be are simply going to relax all protocols in future and just ignore COVID-19 which seems unlikely. 

 

So yes I think Carnival will be forced to curb their greedy endeavours and once again allow individual cruise lines to be the wonderful entities that they were before Carnival got hold of them.   In fact it's entirely possible that we may see Carnival sell some of those lines to private companies who are prepared to run them as before for a smaller profit than the likes of Carnival would want.  That would imo be a wonderful result.

 

As others have also stated, I can't see a future for cruising (certainly not for me anyway) if passengers are mandated to wear masks throughout the holiday.   I still can not see how they can possible solve the problem of social distancing and lifts.  It's simply impossible.   You'd have to shut down the lifts and/or reserve them solely for the infirm and wheelchair/scooter users who would have to constantly queue up, 2m apart, for hours waiting for their turn to use the lift.   Everyone else would have to constantly use the stairs.  We'd sure get fitter but it would be a ball ache for those on higher decks.

 

The issues are all far too complicated and far reaching for there every to be a safe environment on a cruise ship when you think it all through.

 

Which therefore leads to 2 possibilities.

 

1.  Cruising as an industry will simply die a death completely or

 

2.  The authorities, realising that there is no real choice, will just give a green light to the cruise industry to carry on regardless knowing that environments can not be safe nor ever made safe and if people die then so be it.  Money over health.

 

 

Seems pretty obvious which option they will choose imo !

 

.

 

[KnowTheScore]

5 hours ago, Denarius said:

A random thought. If all passengers and crew had tested positive for antibodies and were immune, social distancing would not be necessary.

 

It's unlikely that the powers that be will declare anyone immune if they've had the virus.  That situation wouldn't support a lucrative vaccine industry same as with flu. Just being realistic.

 

There will doubtless be mutations and different flavours of the virus as there are with Flu (which has over 200 variations).   We also know that people who have recovered from the virus still have the virus in them and shed it for up to 37 days after recovery.   So having a test that confirms you've previously been exposed to the virus isn't going to be conclusive or reliable. 

 

People are going to have to be specifically swabbed and tested for the virus before boarding to see if they have any of it present in that moment.  If they do they will be refused entry.

 

But then people would also need to be swabbed and tested routinely throughout the voyage as they could pick up the virus at any and every port they visit.    That will lead to long queues of people waiting to be swabbed, tested and having to wait for the results before being allowed back on board.  That in itself has logistic issues, where to put all those people, 2m apart, cover for wind/rain and so on.

 

There are just no easy answers here.  It's all a nightmare and in the end the only thing they will do is just say "hang it all, we'll all just have to take the risk and damn the outcome"".

 

.

 

[Selbourne]

31 minutes ago, KnowTheScore said:

 

It's unlikely that the powers that be will declare anyone immune if they've had the virus.  That situation wouldn't support a lucrative vaccine industry same as with flu. Just being realistic.

 

There will doubtless be mutations and different flavours of the virus as there are with Flu (which has over 200 variations).   We also know that people who have recovered from the virus still have the virus in them and shed it for up to 37 days after recovery.   So having a test that confirms you've previously been exposed to the virus isn't going to be conclusive or reliable. 

 

People are going to have to be specifically swabbed and tested for the virus before boarding to see if they have any of it present in that moment.  If they do they will be refused entry.

 

But then people would also need to be swabbed and tested routinely throughout the voyage as they could pick up the virus at any and every port they visit.    That will lead to long queues of people waiting to be swabbed, tested and having to wait for the results before being allowed back on board.  That in itself has logistic issues, where to put all those people, 2m apart, cover for wind/rain and so on.

 

There are just no easy answers here.  It's all a nightmare and in the end the only thing they will do is just say "hang it all, we'll all just have to take the risk and damn the outcome"".

 

.

 

As I understand it, testing is pointless prior to embarkation (either at the start of the cruise or in ports of call) as confirmed results can take up to 48 hours. People could board in the pre symptomatic phase, when they are carrying the virus but have no temperature or any other detectable symptoms. 

[terrierjohn]

1 hour ago, zap99 said:

If at all.

I thought my post said that.

[silversurf1]

Could they install one escalator on each ship so healthy people could use that. 15 or 16 decks is too much for most people.

[wowzz]

12 hours ago, silversurf1 said:

Could they install one escalator on each ship so healthy people could use that. 15 or 16 decks is too much for most people.

Have you ever been on a cruise ship?

[Snow Hill]

It is a dilemma for the Cruise companies especially in the communal areas of a ship as they were never designed with social distancing in mind. The risk of bringing back cruising is that if any passenger goes down with the virus then the likelihood is that the ship will be barred entry at its ports of call, so does the ship turnaround and return to its home port? How will travel insurance deal with cases like this where you are not directly infected by the virus? Will the cruise ship company be required to part refund? As it currently stands in UK it is probable that you will have to self isolate for 14 days on returning from a cruise, which means a 14 day cruise turns into a month off work.  Cruises and foreign holidays could be problematic until a vaccine is developed. 

[Josy1953]

I saw on the news last night that Spain are going to make all arrivals to isolate for 2 weeks, so Spanish ports will no longer be viable.  Anyone planning 2 weeks in Spain this summer will be faced with 6 weeks off work, 2 weeks isolation in Spain, 2 weeks holiday in Spain and 2 weeks isolation when they get back to the UK, I really can't  see many people leaving the UK this year.  

 

Sorry Jean, you may be swamped with tourists in your part of the country this summer.

[Son of Anarchy]

There seem to be mixed messages coming out of Spain.  One week the message is that Spain will be closed till the end of the year.  Then its open for business much earlier, but you're going to have to isolate for the first two weeks.  So as Josy says, not much likelihood of people going there for a fortnight of bucket & spade time.

 

However, everything seems pretty dynamic, so maybe next week it will change again.

 

Mind you, if places offered all inclusive holidays, if you were able to do the two weeks isolation on return to the UK, maybe people could just isolate at their Spanish hotel?

[zap99]

16 hours ago, terrierjohn said:

I thought my post said that.

Your post said that.

[Britboys]

1 hour ago, Son of Anarchy said:

There seem to be mixed messages coming out of Spain.  One week the message is that Spain will be closed till the end of the year.  Then its open for business much earlier, but you're going to have to isolate for the first two weeks.  So as Josy says, not much likelihood of people going there for a fortnight of bucket & spade time.

 

However, everything seems pretty dynamic, so maybe next week it will change again.

 

Mind you, if places offered all inclusive holidays, if you were able to do the two weeks isolation on return to the UK, maybe people could just isolate at their Spanish hotel?

Mixed messages are the norm for Spain :-) . I am fortunate enough to spend a fair bit of time there and believe me, Government - local, regional or national - do not make things easy!

[tring]

3 hours ago, Josy1953 said:

I saw on the news last night that Spain are going to make all arrivals to isolate for 2 weeks, so Spanish ports will no longer be viable.  Anyone planning 2 weeks in Spain this summer will be faced with 6 weeks off work, 2 weeks isolation in Spain, 2 weeks holiday in Spain and 2 weeks isolation when they get back to the UK, I really can't  see many people leaving the UK this year.  

 

 

We have a holiday booked to Nerja at the end of the year, so have been looking at details of their lockdown on the TA forum.  Seems the quarantine is for the duration of the current State of Alert (I think that is the term), which lasts until a date later in May at present.  Everything is being done on a regional basis, for instance Costa Del Sol was due to open restaurants/bars last Monday, but new cases in Malaga, Granada and Midjas has put then back down a level.  I have read on other posts that the overall plans are to open some hotels for domestic use in the next month or so, but international travel will not be expected until the autumn.  Again all dependent upon the virus state as with us.  We are not really expecting our November holiday to go ahead, or at least that it would be so different that we could claim it was a major change and cancel.  We wanted to hire a car and get out and about into inland parts etc. and we do not see that happening by November at present.  I think the Islands are affected less, including the Canaries, but personally I do not see then accepting a cruise ship in the near future.

 

When cruises do re start I could see there being a lot of itinerary changes with any long sea journeys gone.  There seems to be talk of various countries having reciprocal relaxing of rules - so perhaps countries in the same group would agree to accept any ill passengers, so they could be disembarked (Ireland and France already mentioned for us of course).   I am also thinking that over 70's may still be advised not to cruise by the FOC, so would not have insurance even if foolhardy enough to want to cruise so cruise companies could well cancel cruises booked by that age group.  It would also seem they would need to offer an option to cancel or at least get a FCC if you do not want to cruise under the new restraints and that alone could reduce the passenger numbers enough for social distancing.

 

 

[Windsurfboy]

It's obvious  if they have to cut passengers,  they will start with cheapest cabins first. Why kick out someone paying £5000pp for 2 weeks, when you can get the same result by kicking out someone paying under £1000 pp.

 

If you take Arcadia my next cruise as example  162 inside cabins 70 ocean view. This would be a 20% drop in passenger  numbers, but a less than 10% drop in revenue. 

 

Not saying they will do this they will do everything to keep full ships, but if they have to they will start with cheapest cabins,  but pretend it is about fresh air and being able to socially distance on own balcony not money.

[zap99]

21 hours ago, Selbourne said:

As I understand it, testing is pointless prior to embarkation (either at the start of the cruise or in ports of call) as confirmed results can take up to 48 hours. People could board in the pre symptomatic phase, when they are carrying the virus but have no temperature or any other detectable symptoms. 

Remember the health questions when we board ? " Have you had a cough or cold in the last seven days ". Oh no , not us, honest sir we haven't. Yeah right.

[zap99]

2 hours ago, tring said:

 

We have a holiday booked to Nerja at the end of the year, so have been looking at details of their lockdown on the TA forum.  Seems the quarantine is for the duration of the current State of Alert (I think that is the term), which lasts until a date later in May at present.  Everything is being done on a regional basis, for instance Costa Del Sol was due to open restaurants/bars last Monday, but new cases in Malaga, Granada and Midjas has put then back down a level.  I have read on other posts that the overall plans are to open some hotels for domestic use in the next month or so, but international travel will not be expected until the autumn.  Again all dependent upon the virus state as with us.  We are not really expecting our November holiday to go ahead, or at least that it would be so different that we could claim it was a major change and cancel.  We wanted to hire a car and get out and about into inland parts etc. and we do not see that happening by November at present.  I think the Islands are affected less, including the Canaries, but personally I do not see then accepting a cruise ship in the near future.

 

When cruises do re start I could see there being a lot of itinerary changes with any long sea journeys gone.  There seems to be talk of various countries having reciprocal relaxing of rules - so perhaps countries in the same group would agree to accept any ill passengers, so they could be disembarked (Ireland and France already mentioned for us of course).   I am also thinking that over 70's may still be advised not to cruise by the FOC, so would not have insurance even if foolhardy enough to want to cruise so cruise companies could well cancel cruises booked by that age group.  It would also seem they would need to offer an option to cancel or at least get a FCC if you do not want to cruise under the new restraints and that alone could reduce the passenger numbers enough for social distancing.

 

 

Why is it foolhardy to want to cruise,?. It may be foolhardy to cruise right now, but who can say what will happen over the next few months.

[No pager thank you]

5 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

It's obvious  if they have to cut passengers,  they will start with cheapest cabins first. Why kick out someone paying £5000pp for 2 weeks, when you can get the same result by kicking out someone paying under £1000 pp.

 

If you take Arcadia my next cruise as example  162 inside cabins 70 ocean view. This would be a 20% drop in passenger  numbers, but a less than 10% drop in revenue. 

 

Not saying they will do this they will do everything to keep full ships, but if they have to they will start with cheapest cabins,  but pretend it is about fresh air and being able to socially distance on own balcony not money.

 

The more P&Os tactics with respect to refunds are on show, the more this becomes apparent.  Not going in booking order will anger a lot of people, but you would assume good notice to be given this time, to avoid paying out compensation, although they may attempt Force Majeure.

 

Thinking this through the logical extension of the position is a "cabin auction" can be run (on similar grounds to their jewellery ones on board with the cheap bubbles). 

 

Everything is overpriced and with a prohibitive reserve, but if you really want to deprive your neighbour of their favoured holiday, just stick your hand up as they say "fair warning, your holiday is going once, going twice, going three times, it going going, it's gone!"

 

Can I take your number please, thanks your FCC is on its way...

 

[ToxM]

8 hours ago, Windsurfboy said:

It's obvious  if they have to cut passengers,  they will start with cheapest cabins first. Why kick out someone paying £5000pp for 2 weeks, when you can get the same result by kicking out someone paying under £1000 pp.

 

If you take Arcadia my next cruise as example  162 inside cabins 70 ocean view. This would be a 20% drop in passenger  numbers, but a less than 10% drop in revenue. 

 

Not saying they will do this they will do everything to keep full ships, but if they have to they will start with cheapest cabins,  but pretend it is about fresh air and being able to socially distance on own balcony not money.

This would be a wise move on POs part, I cannot imagine many people would want to be in a potential Diamond Princess situation in an inside cabin. 

 

I certainly wouldn’t. 

[Son of Anarchy]

6 hours ago, zap99 said:

Why is it foolhardy to want to cruise,?. It may be foolhardy to cruise right now, but who can say what will happen over the next few months.

 

Totally with you on that.  I doubt there will be a vaccine, as much as I would like there to be one.  Everyone has to make a risk assessment and then an informed choice based on their own circumstances.

The Ole Lady and I have completed our risk assessments. Our informed choices are that we are go for Arcadia in September.  If PandO aren't, we will cross that bridge in due course.