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How will passenger numbers on future P&O Cruises be reduced?


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3 minutes ago, Josy1953 said:

You are absolutely right the biggest problem will be the covidiots who will do as they please and possibly infect those of us who are being as sensible as we can about trying to get out and about because the potential for mental health issues is real if we stay isolated until there is a vaccine.

Agree entirely. Whilst all deaths are sad the count is reducing quite quickly. The problem now is the number of positive cases each day, between 2.5k and 3.5k.

If people, country wide,  really were following the rules, where are they getting infected?

 

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46 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

It has always been a balancing act.. 

The mindset of waiting for a vaccine could mean many don't leave the house for a very long time. 

Most will be as sensible as they can, the rest will do as they please... 

Andy 

Perhaps forever.

Whilst we all hope that an effective vaccine can be developed, we cannot take this for granted. HIV has been around for 35 years but has so far defied all attempts to do so. Measles has been around since time immemorable, but it is only in recent decades that a vaccine has been available; there was certainly none in the 1950s when my sister and I caught it. At some time we will have to end lockdown vaccine or no vaccine, because the consequences of not doing so will be more damaging to society. We have not yet imo reached that position, but we will.

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Just now, Denarius said:

Perhaps forever.

Whilst we all hope that an effective vaccine can be developed, we cannot take this for granted. HIV has been around for 35 years but has so far defied all attempts to do so. Measles has been around since time immemorable, but it is only in recent decades that a vaccine has been available; there was certainly none in the 1950s when my sister and I caught it. At some time we will have to end lockdown vaccine or no vaccine, because the consequences of not doing so will be more damaging to society. We have not yet imo reached that position, but we will.

You could be right about the vaccine, I hope not but the sad fact is we just don't know... 

Andy 

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On 5/12/2020 at 4:05 PM, Harry Peterson said:

Interesting question.  My guess is that they’re trying to get as much cash in as possible to keep Carnival afloat.

 

I imagine they know exactly what they’re doing, but what they don’t yet know is how they’ll be required to operate.

 

 I also imagine they have several scenarios and algorithms on which to operate, depending on circumstances, and the aim will be of course to maximise cash flow and profit. I doubt any other factor will be a consideration, but it’s impossible to second guess their plans.

 

I imagine they know "exactly what they are doing", but "don't know yet how they will be required to operate".😚

 

Apparently they have "scenarios and algorithms"  as well.  

 

Absolute gobbledydook. There is no defined clear way forward at this stage, as not only is the whole world adapting to what will be new social rules, there is also no clear way ahead practically, legally or even politically in dealing with the results of the pandemic in the short term regarding cruising, never mind long term. 

 

 

Edited by tanneralll
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On 5/16/2020 at 11:26 AM, tring said:

 

I agree about possibility of cruises with a number of sea days, but by 'long sea journeys' I was thinking of long journeys away from land or more to the point somewhere that has agreed to take ill passengers if they fall ill on the ship.  Ships may want to stay near their home country, or perhaps have an arrangement with other countries for reciprocal arrangements to take any sick passengers.  Seems to be a lot of discussions between European Countries about allowing each other's nationals to travel.  I agree a lot of ports will not want cruise ships for some time to come, though I do wonder if it may become tours only and passengers not allowed to just roam around as they wish (sadly).  Would be easier to clean specific areas afterwards and keep tour groups away from the general population by separating off certain areas at certain times - may work in GIB.

 

We will see. 


 

Ah i understand now about not wanting long sea days.  That is a consideration.  
 

A reason for not going to foreign ports is because of quarantine restrictions.   If you don’t go to a foreign country then you would not need to add 14days to your annual hols.  
 

Recently we have had some cruise ships in Gibraltar.  They are visible from work kitchen.  They come for bunkering and i think so crew can fly from our airport.  It has made me wonder how viable it would be for the ship to be used as a floating hotel but staying in port!  All the tax issues would have to be worked out.  I wouldn’t be interested because for me the ports visited is the major draw.  Some might like it though.  

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26 minutes ago, ollienbertsmum said:


I wouldn’t be interested because for me the ports visited is the major draw.  Some might like it though.  

Think KFC/McDonalds...

Many people prefer to eat in under usual circumstances, but the drive through is manic with people willing to queue for hours because that is all that is on offer.. 

The cruise offering will inevitably change and many will accept that just to have a holiday... 

We all need to 'pivot'... 😊

Andy 

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On 5/19/2020 at 2:34 PM, pete14 said:


Pleased your mother is feeling better. Out of interest, was she able to access a test to confirm that her illness definitely was Covid?

Yes.

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On 5/19/2020 at 6:41 PM, NoFlyGuy said:

Agree entirely. Whilst all deaths are sad the count is reducing quite quickly. The problem now is the number of positive cases each day, between 2.5k and 3.5k.

If people, country wide,  really were following the rules, where are they getting infected?

 

Hooray!

My thoughts for a number of weeks.

I have been following the positive cases Worldwide each day, and more people are infected each day.

People say it is because more people are being tested,

Which does not make sense, how many have got it, how many are in quarantine and how many are infecting others. Currently 2.7 Million people are infected worldwide.R value doubles that.

Let's all go to Southend.

Not

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12 hours ago, Clodia said:

Yes.


That’s good because if having had the virus brings immunity, she at least has the confidence now that it will not return any time soon. 
 

Whilst it is great that people who need a test seem to be able to access one more easily, it is curious that by comparing the number of tests carried out daily against the number of new confirmed cases, such a small number (less than 5%) are positive. Whilst a negative test gives   good news to the person tested, and if in a setting such as a care home it makes management of the virus easier, it makes me wonder who is getting tested and why, especially as as the moment it tests whether the person has the virus, not if they have had it in the past.

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4 hours ago, pete14 said:


That’s good because if having had the virus brings immunity, she at least has the confidence now that it will not return any time soon. 
 

Whilst it is great that people who need a test seem to be able to access one more easily, it is curious that by comparing the number of tests carried out daily against the number of new confirmed cases, such a small number (less than 5%) are positive. Whilst a negative test gives   good news to the person tested, and if in a setting such as a care home it makes management of the virus easier, it makes me wonder who is getting tested and why, especially as as the moment it tests whether the person has the virus, not if they have had it in the past.

My husband is part of a research test where people were picked at random to do a test at home (He is awaiting results)It is being done by Imperial College London to find out presumably percentage of people who have co vid compared to the number of people who don t have it .Perhaps to work out percentage in different regions of the country? Apparently Imperial have randomly selected patients from GP surgeries and I believe other hospitals/research institutions are doing similar as I have heard of several people being asked to self test at home.Although a lot of people have really bad symptoms if they have the virus my sisters mother in law who is 90 and is in a care home was tested because she had a cough (no temperature or other symptoms)and proved positive.

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19 minutes ago, ann141 said:

My husband is part of a research test where people were picked at random to do a test at home (He is awaiting results)It is being done by Imperial College London to find out presumably percentage of people who have co vid compared to the number of people who don t have it .Perhaps to work out percentage in different regions of the country? Apparently Imperial have randomly selected patients from GP surgeries and I believe other hospitals/research institutions are doing similar as I have heard of several people being asked to self test at home.Although a lot of people have really bad symptoms if they have the virus my sisters mother in law who is 90 and is in a care home was tested because she had a cough (no temperature or other symptoms)and proved positive.


Thanks for that. I am sure those research tests which have been sent out will be included in the figures and as they are not necessarily for those reporting symptoms are highly likely to be negative.

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42 minutes ago, ann141 said:

Although a lot of people have really bad symptoms 

I've been following these last few posts with interest. I have a feeling that both Frank and I may have had this virus early February. Our youngest grandson who was in college and also works part - time at B&Q is never I'll. Never had a cold even.

Late January he began with what we said was flu. Temperature, cough, sore throat, headache. Stuffed him full of paracetamol, cough medicine and loads of fluids. Four days later he was well again. Then we came down with it, and  have never felt as ill. It was like nothing we've experienced before but we thought it was flu and thank goodness we'd had our flu vaccination. It took us over two weeks to recover properly. Neither my daughter or older grandson who live with us were affected. Most odd, maybe maybe not, who knows, but It would be interesting to find out.

Avril 

Edited by Adawn47
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The test will only show if my husband (and others) currently have co vid , not if they have previously had it but as a few people seem to have the virus very mildly (without necessarily realising) it hopefully may be useful for research purposes

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1 hour ago, Adawn47 said:

I've been following these last few posts with interest. I have a feeling that both Frank and I may have had this virus early February. Our youngest grandson who was in college and also works part - time at B&Q is never I'll. Never had a cold even.

Late January he began with what we said was flu. Temperature, cough, sore throat, headache. Stuffed him full of paracetamol, cough medicine and loads of fluids. Four days later he was well again. Then we came down with it, and  have never felt as ill. It was like nothing we've experienced before but we thought it was flu and thank goodness we'd had our flu vaccination. It took us over two weeks to recover properly. Neither my daughter or older grandson who live with us were affected. Most odd, maybe maybe not, who knows, but It would be interesting to find out.

Avril 

I think that a lot of people have had it but not realised.  My husband and I both think that we caught it in February when we were on Oceana.  We were not ill on the cruise but 2 days after we got home my husband was hardly able to move because he ached so much,  I was ok for another week then had a cough, sore throat and could not move my head because my neck was so painful.  At the time we did not consider Coronavirus I thought that mine was a dose of the flu even though I had had the flu jab and my husband thought that he had over exerted himself.

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1 hour ago, Josy1953 said:

I think that a lot of people have had it but not realised.  My husband and I both think that we caught it in February when we were on Oceana.  We were not ill on the cruise but 2 days after we got home my husband was hardly able to move because he ached so much,  I was ok for another week then had a cough, sore throat and could not move my head because my neck was so painful.  At the time we did not consider Coronavirus I thought that mine was a dose of the flu even though I had had the flu jab and my husband thought that he had over exerted himself.


I guess if you are offered one of the 10 million antibody tests we have bought, you will find out. That said, as no-one knows how long immunity lasts, after 3 months or more, it could be decreasing. Let’s hope it is long lasting.

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5 hours ago, Josy1953 said:

I think that a lot of people have had it but not realised.  My husband and I both think that we caught it in February when we were on Oceana.  We were not ill on the cruise but 2 days after we got home my husband was hardly able to move because he ached so much,  I was ok for another week then had a cough, sore throat and could not move my head because my neck was so painful.  At the time we did not consider Coronavirus I thought that mine was a dose of the flu even though I had had the flu jab and my husband thought that he had over exerted himself.

 

 

I am sue that you are right about so many people who have had it.   Those who work in healthcare settings here are being tested every 4 weeks.  Several colleagues tested postive recently and had no idea that they had the virus.   When they thought about it they said ‘oh yes I have perhaps felt a bit tired recently’.    I have tested negative twice.  

 

But then they say that the test has a 30% false negative rate.   So who knows.  

 

As far as I am concerned the sooner we get the mortality rate down and can get back to ‘new normal’ the better.    I have planned my first trips.  The first three will not be cruises.  

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All very interesting, especially the person who only had a cough. I had a terrible cough in February that kept me off work for a week, I’ve never had more than a day off at a time before! (Except after an operation)
As I work for part of the NHS I can get a test if I have symptoms  but would love to have the antibodies test.

Edited by P&O SUE
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Coronavirus: Cruise ship outbreak reveals scale of silent carriers of Covid-19

Study reveals scale of spread without symptoms among confined patients

 

The study authors concluded the prevalence of the virus on cruise ships was likely to be “significantly underestimated”, and they warned passengers should be monitored after ships set sail to ward off community spread of the virus.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-cruise-ship-virus-testing-lockdown-no-symptoms-a9535456.html

 

 

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I read that earlier

 

So, does the study suggest that a lot of people have already had the infection “silently” as it were, and that many/more/most of the population may have (temporary or permanent) immunity?

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30 minutes ago, Eddie99 said:

I read that earlier

 

So, does the study suggest that a lot of people have already had the infection “silently” as it were, and that many/more/most of the population may have (temporary or permanent) immunity?

Let's hope so.

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24 minutes ago, terrierjohn said:

Let's hope so.

Who knows, until we get enough of the right tests done. Incredibly, they’ve been double counting all the tests done so far to manipulate the statistics.  Each test involves a nose swab and a throat swab - counted as two tests for the stats to claim to have hit the magic 100,000 target!

 

As for the numbers already infected, I’ve seen figures ranging from as low as 10% to as high as 57%. All guesswork.

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22 minutes ago, Harry Peterson said:

Who knows, until we get enough of the right tests done. Incredibly, they’ve been double counting all the tests done so far to manipulate the statistics.  Each test involves a nose swab and a throat swab - counted as two tests for the stats to claim to have hit the magic 100,000 target!

 

As for the numbers already infected, I’ve seen figures ranging from as low as 10% to as high as 57%. All guesswork.


And now we have a ‘world beating’ track and trace system starting today that seems to define potentially virus passing contact as being within 2 metres of an infected person for at least 15 minutes. Oh, and don’t forget that scientists are being asked to decide whether dropping from 2 metres to 1 metre is a good idea. I guess they are gearing up to sending out enough test kits for the research programme at the end of this month so the Prime Minister can hit his 200,000 tests a day by the end of the month, just like Hancock did last month to reach his 100,000 target. Thank goodness they are taking the best scientific advice to keep us safe. Imagine if they weren’t.

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1 hour ago, Harry Peterson said:

Who knows, until we get enough of the right tests done. Incredibly, they’ve been double counting all the tests done so far to manipulate the statistics.  Each test involves a nose swab and a throat swab - counted as two tests for the stats to claim to have hit the magic 100,000 target!

 

As for the numbers already infected, I’ve seen figures ranging from as low as 10% to as high as 57%. All guesswork.

I have no medical training but was a statistician (actuary) To my mind, the only way this can be resolved is by giving an antibody test to a random sample of the population. The results would provide an estimate of the proportion of the population who had actually been infected, not just those who had reported symptoms but also those who had not. This is important because if the proportion who have actually been infected far exceeds those who have shown symptoms as the cruise ship study suggests, then the actual mortality rate is corespondingly lower. The virus may not be as deadly as assumed, but we have no way of knowing unless and until random tests are done. Until then it is, as you say, all guesswork.

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1 hour ago, pete14 said:


And now we have a ‘world beating’ track and trace system starting today that seems to define potentially virus passing contact as being within 2 metres of an infected person for at least 15 minutes. Oh, and don’t forget that scientists are being asked to decide whether dropping from 2 metres to 1 metre is a good idea. I guess they are gearing up to sending out enough test kits for the research programme at the end of this month so the Prime Minister can hit his 200,000 tests a day by the end of the month, just like Hancock did last month to reach his 100,000 target. Thank goodness they are taking the best scientific advice to keep us safe. Imagine if they weren’t.

And as the test results are taking up to 7 days to be reported, the whole exercise is pretty much a waste of time.

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That sounds far too logical Denarius 🙄

 

If the risk of serious illness or death IS substantially lower than is the current assumption/calculation that changes the situation hugely.  Subject to general health facilities, and civil society, being able to cope, I think it would then be for individuals to do their own risk assessment and determine how they want to live their lives

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