do you realize how complicated it will be for cruising to restart

[DarrenM]

I have asked this on another forum. What if there is no vaccine EVER?

 

Do we all give up? Live like monks?

 

Or do we just say right let's just get on with living?

[DarrenM]

And if you lot are adamant you wont cruise without a vaccine what do you expect the cruise lines to do? Just give up too?

[clo]

2 minutes ago, DarrenM said:

I have asked this on another forum. What if there is no vaccine EVER?

 

Do we all give up? Live like monks?

 

Or do we just say right let's just get on with living?

There's an insane amount of living that doesn't involve cruising and if you don't want to accept that then YOU can live like a monk. A whole bunch of us won't and will continue to have a fantastic time.

 

Regarding the future of cruise lines there are many industries that have gone away and many more that will. Life goes on.

[DarrenM]

5 minutes ago, clo said:

There's an insane amount of living that doesn't involve cruising and if you don't want to accept that then YOU can live like a monk. A whole bunch of us won't and will continue to have a fantastic time.

 

Regarding the future of cruise lines there are many industries that have gone away and many more that will. Life goes on.

Yes. No cruising. No music festivals. No live sport with crowds. No pubs. No parties. No restaurants. No cinemas.

 

And that's just the first few things I thought of.

 

Although I did have a round of golf yesterday which was marvellous. Even if my play wasnt.

 

[clo]

4 minutes ago, DarrenM said:

Yes. No cruising. No music festivals. No live sport with crowds. No pubs. No parties. No restaurants. No cinemas.

 

I read an excellent definition of the end of a pandemic: everyone is either dead or immune. It was not written in jest. That's how a pandemic ends whether there's a vaccine or not. And a cruise is as far as I can think of is the most extreme example of unsafe travel as it stands now. Even without air travel, there's tons of things to do and places to go. 

 

BTW the restaurants in the US - just in case you don't know - are starting to reopen with lots of changes. We'll have to see if they can afford to stay in business with those restrictions.

[cruisemom42]

3 minutes ago, clo said:

I read an excellent definition of the end of a pandemic: everyone is either dead or immune. It was not written in jest. That's how a pandemic ends whether there's a vaccine or not.

 

I responded before to this. While it may not have been written in jest, I believe that whoever wrote it was taking some literary license as it is certainly NOT true.

 

Take the 1918 flu pandemic. It did not end with everyone either dead or immune. Nor did other large, long-ago pandemics (which tended not to be global but could still be quite widespread among countries).  

 

There are other possibilities that exist -- including mutation of the virus into a less deadly but recurring infection (scientific opinion is split on this possibility), continued sporadic epidemics, and partial immunity as a result of previous exposure and vaccination efforts (as with the current flu).

 

From a very well-written piece just published in Nature:

 

“By far the most likely scenario is that the virus will continue to spread and infect most of the world population in a relatively short period of time,” says Stöhr, meaning one to two years. “Afterwards, the virus will continue to spread in the human population, likely forever.” Like the four generally mild human coronaviruses, SARS-CoV-2 would then circulate constantly and cause mainly mild upper respiratory tract infections, says Stöhr. For that reason, he adds, vaccines won’t be necessary.

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-01315-7

 

Not sure I agree with his assessment, but it does point out that the top experts are divided on what the long-game looks like, and there is virtually zero chance that it ends with us all being either immune or dead...

 

(By the way, for those who don't know, Nature is one of THE most well-regarded publications in terms of scientific rigor.)

 

[Roz]

There were people who didn't contract the Black Plague even though family members and neighbors did.  And people who contracted it and survived.  There was no vaccine.  I personally don't believe it's a black/white either/or proposition.

[lenquixote66]

8 hours ago, mbardsley said:

Wow, that is not a very nice way to put things. Dealing with hurricanes in Houston is a fact of life. Most devastation is not from the storm, but poor design of flood control, being allowed to build in a flood zone, ECT. Preventable items.  Me, would I build / live in a home in Houston that is downstream from a flood control dam, or a low spot in the area, NO. God gave me some common sense.  We stayed in our ground floor galleria townhome, flooded streets and cars around us, safe and secure. Even making a statement like that is kind of like "poking the bear", you wanted a reaction. 

I will not stop my life because I am scared, but enjoy it. You have a "blessed" day as my wife says.

You can be scared but you should also be sensible.Have a good day.

[clo]

37 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

I responded before to this. While it may not have been written in jest, I believe that whoever wrote it was taking some literary license as it is certainly NOT true.

 

I remember this now and thanks as always. I think "immune" was used hyperbolically and is not accurate. 

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

1 hour ago, clo said:

BTW the restaurants in the US - just in case you don't know - are starting to reopen with lots of changes. We'll have to see if they can afford to stay in business with those restrictions.

 

True ... and many states now have detailed plans for phased reopenings. 

 

But there's one group that will drive a steamroller over it: Those who simply can't be trusted to consistently play by the rules. The "I ain't wearing no darn mask, and nobody can make me!" crowd. 

In the Northeast, they screwed everything up in late March. Cities tried to leave all the recreation areas open, the Me First brigade insisted on team sports and group gatherings ... so eventually, most places shut down school fields and even parks. For several weeks in a row, the states and cities kept clamping down ... because people just couldn't bring themselves to act better.

Now we see it in drug stores, convenience marts, supermarkets - maybe 80 or even 90 percent of people comply, but the I, Me,  Mine brigade doesn't. Most people line up according to the new yellow tape on the floor, but not the I, Me, Mine gang.

And now you're seeing this at airports: The airlines have even directed flight attendants not to enforce the policy that passengers wear masks throughout the flight. So if you end up in a middle seat, you could be surrounded by a pair of 300-pounders snoring in your direction the whole flight .... with no masks, 'cuz they ain't giving up no liberty for no dern gummint.

And THAT attitude will keep rules-abiding people OUT of stores. And OFF of cruise ships.
 

[DarrenM]

I am sure there are many other killer viruses that have no vaccine. Weirdly they didnt stop anyone cruising. And still dont.

 

But now we darent go out any more just in case spanish flu returns or measles or SARS or whatever else there is.

 

The amount of fear embedded deep into people is a bigger pandemic than the virus.

[TheOldBear]

I followed a few links this morning and found https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/05/15/good-news-on-the-human-immune-response-to-the-coronavirus

 

So, it appears possible that there will shortly be an effective vaccine.

 

As a baseline as to what is possible, the 1957 "Hong Kong" flu vaccine went from start of project to 40 million doses distributed in about 4 months [likely because there were not as many lawyers back then]

[navybankerteacher]

30 minutes ago, DarrenM said:

I am sure there are many other killer viruses that have no vaccine. Weirdly they didnt stop anyone cruising. And still dont.

 

...

 

Why not come up with something relevant?  

 

COVID 19 has already killed over 300,000 people in just about four months. It is still on a vigorous upswing in India, Africa and South America. A number of US states are on the verge of re-thinking their re-opening schedules.   (I learned just yesterday that my long-overdue haircut appointment has had to have been rescheduled from tomorrow to early June).

 

To what  comparable “killer viruses” are you referring?

[clo]

1 hour ago, TheOldBear said:

40 million doses distributed in about 4 months

Well, that would take care of California.

[navybankerteacher]

8 minutes ago, clo said:

Well, that would take care of California.

Maybe some order of priority to get the vaccine should be established — perhaps the order in which States joined the Union.

[cruisemom42]

12 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Maybe some order of priority to get the vaccine should be established — perhaps the order in which States joined the Union.

 

Thumbs up on that, from my abode in one of the original 13 colonies...

[clo]

19 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Thumbs up on that, from my abode in one of the original 13 colonies...

I began life in Georgia one of the 13.

 

 

[chipmaster]

On 5/18/2020 at 11:25 AM, DarrenM said:

I agree with this. We are suddenly meant to be scared of our own breath. And it seems many are.

 

Whilst plenty of others appear to going about their daily business as if  nothing has happened.

 

We are either scared witless or in complete denial.

 

I read figures from a statistician he other day who said in the uk there are 10million people  under 15 years of age and only 2 had died of the virus. 

 

There are 17 million between 15 and 30 with only 28 cases.

 

The odds of them dying was less than them dying of being crushed by a piano falling 40 stories. 

 

So I can see business restarting for the under 40s only including cruises.

 

They wouldnt need to socially distance would they?

 

And if any if you think the 20 somethings will.continue to live a hermit style lifestyle for ever then you are deluded.

 

The rebellion has already started by them and why not?  Let's face it it's likely to be their age range that suffers the most from this and the economic meltdown thats coming.

 

And for what?

 

To protect most of us on here that have lived our lives to the full already. 

 

I fear for the future of my children and their children unless things get back to normality soon.

 

 

Hmm "

To protect most of us on here that have lived our lives to the full already. 

 

I fear for the future of my children and their children unless things get back to normality soon."

 

I think I read somewhere that this is much ado about nothing, we are worried about people that already are near death already, why are we doing anything they are going to die soon enough anyways, LOL

[DarrenM]

I have discussed this with  my youngest son who has stuck to the lockdown rigidly for 2 months now.  He is ok at the moment finishing his masters.

 

My fear is what happens in 3 months when he is looking for his career job only to find there are none there?

 

He understand the need to protect his grandad and his nan. I am not sure how he and his age group will be if they end up struggling financially. 

 

And I can sense in him a desire to go out and get absolutely blind drunk with his mates. He wont but he has admitted missing things badly. It must be awful for that age group to have their social life stolen from them. I worry for my sons mental health.

 

So if it was a choice of giving him a chance and protecting his mental health then I choose him over his nan.

 

So speaks a concerned parent.

 

 

 

 

[Shmoo here]

39 minutes ago, DarrenM said:

My fear is what happens in 3 months when he is looking for his career job only to find there are none there?

Well, he doesn't have to find his "career job" immediately.  I'm sure there will be jobs.  The question is will he be willing to work at what he can find until "something better" comes along?

 

I'm not sure how many people found the job they stayed with for life right out of college, but I'd think most of us started with something other than the job we wanted.  I know I did.  

[cruisemom42]

48 minutes ago, DarrenM said:

 

And I can sense in him a desire to go out and get absolutely blind drunk with his mates. He wont but he has admitted missing things badly. It must be awful for that age group to have their social life stolen from them. I worry for my sons mental health.

 

So if it was a choice of giving him a chance and protecting his mental health then I choose him over his nan.

 

So speaks a concerned parent.

 

 

You think this is so terrible compared with generations past where young men had to go out and fight in a war? Having his social life stolen from him? 

 

Assuming one survived combat, there would likely be a lot more mental anguish to get through than not being able to see one's mates or get blind drunk for half a year or so....

 

And before you say I don't know what I'm talking about, I am currently "sheltering in place" with my own 28-year-old son. So far we are both weathering it just fine. In this era, he is able to keep up with his group almost as completely as he does under normal circumstances. Granted he's not much of a drinker, but they all get online and chat, game, blow off steam, whatever....  

[ilikeanswers]

1 hour ago, DarrenM said:

So if it was a choice of giving him a chance and protecting his mental health then I choose him over his nan.

 

Not just old people:

More countries report children with Kawasaki-disease-like syndrome possibly linked to coronavirus

 

It feels like every week we learn something new about this disease 🙄. 

[clo]

I was reading an article from a regional/local California paper and saw this:

 

" In order to move forward under the governor’s plan, counties must maintain adequate hospital and testing capacity and they must have the ability to conduct tracing of those who have been in contact with individuals infected by COVID-19."

 

(My bold)

If you substitute ships for counties, I don't think it's possible for ships to "maintain adequate hospital...capacity...."  This is for phase 2 so not the long term requirements but still. Even one ventilator with staff trained to use it? And "testing capacity." I'm assuming that means more than a temperature check. I don't know why CDC would require less of a ship than a county would have to comply with. But CDC, my first employer out of school, hasn't necessarily been the staunch protector that I've always thought them to be. And/or their 'superiors.' It 'feels' like it's going to require far more than masks and social distancing. If they're going to go along the lines of the quote above, it seems like universal vaccination is going to be the healthy and responsible thing that gets them going again. So two years?

[JimnKaren]

I'm curious (and don't call me Shirley)...are any of you discussing this at home at the dinner table or over drinks? Or are you just stating stuff here and no where else? Not trying to challenge, but our discussions at home have been involved as to what to do and when to do and why do it.

Jim

[clo]

10 minutes ago, JimnKaren said:

I'm curious (and don't call me Shirley)...are any of you discussing this at home at the dinner table or over drinks? Or are you just stating stuff here and no where else? Not trying to challenge, but our discussions at home have been involved as to what to do and when to do and why do it.

Jim

I can't speak for others but we're discussing this almost constantly at home and even the rare 'other places.' FB is my soap box. But outside of here we don't give a cockle-doodle-doo about cruising. We talk about the local, national and worldwide issues. Cruising is "chump change" in the big picture. Thanks for asking, Shirley 🙂