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3 minutes ago, boatseller said:

I'll give you the same deal, quit while I'm ahead. 

Listen, it is clear that you are looking for any way to "win", but you are focused on the wrong thing.  The focus should be curbing the spread of a deadly virus (not "the flu") and how everyone can help.  Widespread testing helps slow the spread, and the NJ and NY governors know that and are encouraging people EVERY DAY on LIVE broadcasts to get tested.  I can give you 1000 links to replays, but you won't listen to them because you are so focused on being right.

 

I have no skin in this game.  I've already had Covid and probably have immunity - at least for a while.  Odds are  that I could cruise tomorrow on a ship covered in Covid-19 virus and not catch it OR spread it - with or without a mask.  So, it's not me I'm even concerned about.

 

My sole purpose in sharing my story is to try and help people understand the importance of protecting themselves and others. For some reason known only to God, I was one of the lucky ones to survive this horror when so many others did not.  I feel like the least I can do to pay it forward is to try to help others.

 

So, if you don't understand that, you lose.  You can think you won a debate of headlines and links, but clearly you are too blinded by your ego to understand the point.  You know everything, I get it.  I did too.  If you've read my previous posts you know that I scoffed at everyone telling me I was crazy to cruise.  I thought they were all scaredy-cats and drama queens. Afraid of their own shadows and making a mountain out of a molehill.  Oops, I guess I wasn't that smart after all.  At least my ego is not so fragile that I can admit when I'm wrong.

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9 minutes ago, pcakes122 said:

Listen, it is clear that you are looking for any way to "win", but you are focused on the wrong thing.  The focus should be curbing the spread of a deadly virus (not "the flu") and how everyone can help.  Widespread testing helps slow the spread, and the NJ and NY governors know that and are encouraging people EVERY DAY on LIVE broadcasts to get tested.  I can give you 1000 links to replays, but you won't listen to them because you are so focused on being right.

 

I have no skin in this game.  I've already had Covid and probably have immunity - at least for a while.  Odds are  that I could cruise tomorrow on a ship covered in Covid-19 virus and not catch it OR spread it - with or without a mask.  So, it's not me I'm even concerned about.

 

My sole purpose in sharing my story is to try and help people understand the importance of protecting themselves and others. For some reason known only to God, I was one of the lucky ones to survive this horror when so many others did not.  I feel like the least I can do to pay it forward is to try to help others.

 

So, if you don't understand that, you lose.  You can think you won a debate of headlines and links, but clearly you are too blinded by your ego to understand the point.  You know everything, I get it.  I did too.  If you've read my previous posts you know that I scoffed at everyone telling me I was crazy to cruise.  I thought they were all scaredy-cats and drama queens. Afraid of their own shadows and making a mountain out of a molehill.  Oops, I guess I wasn't that smart after all.  At least my ego is not so fragile that I can admit when I'm wrong.

See, here's the problem, I'll ask you to provide supporting evidence for anything in here and...you won't.  It's not about me being right, it's about me knowing the facts and statements by various orgs and agencies and being able to basically prove my points.  You've had ample opportunity to response similarly, yet all we get is your 'story'.  Sorry, but your story has no basis in science, statistics or policy.

 

For example, no, testing does not help slow the spread, face coverings, hygiene and social distancing slow the spread. According to...wait for it...the CDC: How to Protect Yourself & Others or What to Do If You Are Sick  'Testing' is not mentioned once in either of those articles.  I suppose these are not two of your 1000 links.  And if you have 1000, you can't paste just one?  Seriously, if you get this one basic fact/policy wrong, one that is very, very easy to lookup, why should we have much faith in any other statement you make?  Is NJDOH such a renegade department that they're blatantly flaunting wise Gov Murphy's advice?

 

When people decide to cruise, or not, they're going to look at the sources I provided and similar.  Official, trusted, verifiable sources. Sources you are as free to reference and analyze.  Why you and our other friend refuse to do so is quite a mystery (will not really but again, different topic).  Until then, you're just trying to scare people and shame them over things that you think are important but just aren't supported by science, statistics or policy.  (Unless you can provide a link. 🙂)

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20 minutes ago, boatseller said:

See, here's the problem, I'll ask you to provide supporting evidence for anything in here and...you won't.  It's not about me being right, it's about me knowing the facts and statements by various orgs and agencies and being able to basically prove my points.  You've had ample opportunity to response similarly, yet all we get is your 'story'.  Sorry, but your story has no basis in science, statistics or policy.

 

For example, no, testing does not help slow the spread, face coverings, hygiene and social distancing slow the spread. According to...wait for it...the CDC: How to Protect Yourself & Others or What to Do If You Are Sick  'Testing' is not mentioned once in either of those articles.  I suppose these are not two of your 1000 links.  And if you have 1000, you can't paste just one?  Seriously, if you get this one basic fact/policy wrong, one that is very, very easy to lookup, why should we have much faith in any other statement you make?  Is NJDOH such a renegade department that they're blatantly flaunting wise Gov Murphy's advice?

 

When people decide to cruise, or not, they're going to look at the sources I provided and similar.  Official, trusted, verifiable sources. Sources you are as free to reference and analyze.  Why you and our other friend refuse to do so is quite a mystery (will not really but again, different topic).  Until then, you're just trying to scare people and shame them over things that you think are important but just aren't supported by science, statistics or policy.  (Unless you can provide a link. 🙂)

If you don't want to get a test, don't get one. I am now putting you on Ignore because you are literally exhausting and a complete waste of my time. 

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1 minute ago, pcakes122 said:

If you don't want to get a test, don't get one. I am now putting you on Ignore because you are literally exhausting and a complete waste of my time. 

Ah, again with the assumptions.  So, for the benefit of future readers, our discussion ended with this friend not being able to backup any of their warning or claims with a reputable or verifiable source then, as you can see, well....

 

When it comes time to decide on cruising this year, next year or anytime, there is lots of information out there about safety, and the risks involved.  I hope everyone uses this information to make their own decisions based on their own circumstances.  If you have reason to take precautions, cruising's might not be for you right now.  But if you're not scared of the virus, don't let anyone shame you into being scared.

 

See you all on the waves, Happy Cruising!

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2 hours ago, pcakes122 said:

Covid-19 testing is free.

 

This is so not true.  You may not have to pay for it at the time of testing but you and the rest of us will be paying for this through our state and federal taxes for years to come.  

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1 minute ago, ChicagoBarb said:

 

This is so not true.  You may not have to pay for it at the time of testing but you and the rest of us will be paying for this through our state and federal taxes for years to come.  

So are you suggesting that people don't get tested? My response that it was free was to someone who was concerned about whether they needed insurance coverage to be tested. No one should avoid getting a test because they're worried about payment.

 

I'm not concerned about my tax money being used to help those less fortunate diagnose a serious health condition. I was initially slightly miffed when a saw a discussion on a FB cruise group about folks getting together to book a cruise with their stimulus checks, but hey it stimulates the economy so I had to check myself on that one. (I wasn't eligible for a stimulus check.)

 

But medical care? Doesn't bother me a bit to help others in that situation. 🤷‍♀️

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4 hours ago, boatseller said:

Ah, again with the assumptions.  So, for the benefit of future readers, our discussion ended with this friend not being able to backup any of their warning or claims with a reputable or verifiable source then, as you can see, well....

 

When it comes time to decide on cruising this year, next year or anytime, there is lots of information out there about safety, and the risks involved.  I hope everyone uses this information to make their own decisions based on their own circumstances.  If you have reason to take precautions, cruising's might not be for you right now.  But if you're not scared of the virus, don't let anyone shame you into being scared.

 

See you all on the waves, Happy Cruising!

You posted links the other day trying to prove that covid-19 and the flu had the same risks and such. I read those links and they proved you wrong. I responded as such.I love people who try to tell me because I wear a mask or self isolate that I'm SCARED, NNOOOO I'm not scared for ME. I think of other people who If I don't wear a mask or take precautions can get sick from ME. Now if you don't care about getting other people sick, that's who YOU are, and you have to live with yourself. I was taught empathy for my fellow human beings, I feel sorry that you weren't.

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14 hours ago, janerd said:

You posted links the other day trying to prove that covid-19 and the flu had the same risks and such. I read those links and they proved you wrong. I responded as such.I love people who try to tell me because I wear a mask or self isolate that I'm SCARED, NNOOOO I'm not scared for ME. I think of other people who If I don't wear a mask or take precautions can get sick from ME. Now if you don't care about getting other people sick, that's who YOU are, and you have to live with yourself. I was taught empathy for my fellow human beings, I feel sorry that you weren't.

Well, no.  Unless you're going to argue with Johns Hopkins, the links did and still support my case.  And given the latest CDC Projections, it's even closer.

 

Note on how to read projection:  Overall Symptomatic Case fatality .4%, adjusted for their 35% asymptomatic projection leaves .26% case fatality rate. 

 

Note now, this is based on cases, not infections, meaning they have not yet adjusted for the sero surveys which are consistently showing an infection minimum rate of 10x the case rate.  Meaning the ccv, using reliable official data, is comfortably within influenza territory.  Finally, this represents overall cases and does bread down by individual risk factors which are also very well publicized.

 

If you have alternative data and analysis, please provided it.

 

So, now you falling into the same trap as our other friends:  "Now if you don't care about getting other people sick,"  Please provide the exact quote where I express this opinion.

 

The only thing I've been saying is talk to your doctor (yes, other threads), decide if cruising is right for you based on your situation, follow the guidance and have a great cruise.

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22 hours ago, boatseller said:

 

.  If you have reason to take precautions, cruising's might not be for you right now.

 

See you all on the waves, Happy Cruising!

I will start with MY list for reasons to take precautions

 

  • I am healthy but getting close to the age where it starts to get concerning
  • I have a father and mother in law who are older than me that I would want to quarantine myself to protect them if I go
  • There are older people I meet in grocery stores, take out restaurants clerks, hardware stores, garages, etc that I would not want to infect and possibly kill since I don't know if they have any underlying conditions
  • I have children that even though they are healthy, I would not want to infect them

So, my precautions are basically wanting to protect my fellow human being. If I can catch it, I might be asymptomatic but I could give it to someone I love or an essential worker and hurt them and I don't like that at all

 

 

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1 hour ago, hftmrock said:

So, my precautions are basically wanting to protect my fellow human being. If I can catch it, I might be asymptomatic but I could give it to someone I love or an essential worker and hurt them and I don't like that at all

Absolutely!  And being prepared to isolate for potentially years is 100% your choice.  As noted above using CDC data, the burden of sc2 is converging on that of influenza, a disease with similar morbidities and limited preventative measures.  So I thank you for being equally as considerate of us fellow human beings when it comes to both diseases.

 

With the known prevalence, cruise ships account for a tiny, tiny number of cases.  And following the guidance will keep that number very low.

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1 minute ago, boatseller said:

Absolutely!  And being prepared to isolate for potentially years is 100% your choice.  As noted above using CDC data, the burden of sc2 is converging on that of influenza, a disease with similar morbidities and limited preventative measures.  So I thank you for being equally as considerate of us fellow human beings when it comes to both diseases.

 

With the known prevalence, cruise ships account for a tiny, tiny number of cases.  And following the guidance will keep that number very low.

I was not aware that influenza killed 600,000 people a year in the USA alone

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1 minute ago, hftmrock said:

I was not aware that influenza killed 600,000 people a year in the USA alone

It has not...and neither has sc2.  But should we deduce that it's OK, to spread a disease that just harms fewer people?  What would the cutoff be?  What will you do if it flips?

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8 minutes ago, boatseller said:

It has not...and neither has sc2.  But should we deduce that it's OK, to spread a disease that just harms fewer people?  What would the cutoff be?  What will you do if it flips?

since you dont want to extrapolate a 1 year Covid-19, when has influenza killed 100,000 in 2 months?

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Posted (edited)

100,000 dead in 2 months in the USA alone and you're saying it has the same CFR as flu despite it also being orders of magnitude more contagious? 

 

Seriously when was the last flu season you saw with 100,000 dead in 2 months and morgues overflowing?

 

Regular flu R naught value is 1.3... COVID19 is 5.7 and you want to get on a cruise ship. It ain't happening for quite some time. Especially if you are over 70. To much of a risk for the cruise line.

 

CFR in the USA from known cases is currently 5.8%. Yes of course will be lower given some people have had it and don't know.

Edited by pmd98052

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8 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

since you dont want to extrapolate a 1 year Covid-19, when has influenza killed 100,000 in 2 months?

Huh?  Instead of making up numbers, can you refer to a reliable source for your information?

 

I'll help you out, you can just repost this link: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

 

Using Johns Hopkins data, they visualize a the flattening at just over 100,000.  At least you got that right.

 

The Flu season, according to the CDC, is typically December through March.  4 Months.  sc2 has been in the country since, we'll say January but some say earlier.  The 18-19 Flu season estimated 61,000 deaths.  So, 15,000 per month during last years flu season vs 21,000/m for the 5 month of sc2.  If the trend holds past July, right when cruising will resume, the numbers will converge.  Maths!  Science!

 

Is that the extrapolation you were looking for?

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9 minutes ago, boatseller said:

Huh?  Instead of making up numbers, can you refer to a reliable source for your information?

 

I'll help you out, you can just repost this link: https://covid-19.tacc.utexas.edu/projections/

 

Using Johns Hopkins data, they visualize a the flattening at just over 100,000.  At least you got that right.

 

The Flu season, according to the CDC, is typically December through March.  4 Months.  sc2 has been in the country since, we'll say January but some say earlier.  The 18-19 Flu season estimated 61,000 deaths.  So, 15,000 per month during last years flu season vs 21,000/m for the 5 month of sc2.  If the trend holds past July, right when cruising will resume, the numbers will converge.  Maths!  Science!

 

Is that the extrapolation you were looking for?

2 months = 100K Covid

18-19 season (1 year) = 61K

 

and you can compare anything?

 

plus without social distancing since you want apples to apples, it would be more like 1,000,000 dead. (estimated without social distancing)

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16 minutes ago, pmd98052 said:

Seriously when was the last flu season you saw with 100,000 dead in 2 months and morgues overflowing?

 

CFR in the USA from known cases is currently 5.8%. Yes of course will be lower given some people have had it and don't know.

Answered above.  Your data?

 

The sc2 pandemic in the US is at least 4 months, since February.

 

The current COVID-19 Pandemic Planning Scenarios indicate an unadjusted Symptomatic CFR of 0.4% and an R0 of 2.5.  Including asymptomatic cases, the CFR drops to 0.26%.  This data is also not adjusted for demonstrated sero prevalence or broken down by age or underlying condition.

 

If you have data that contradicts the CDC, I will seriously consider it.  Until then, this is what the cruise lines and State of Florida will use to determine how cruising will resume.

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2 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

2 months = 100K Covid

18-19 season (1 year) = 61K

 

and you can compare anything?

 

plus without social distancing since you want apples to apples, it would be more like 1,000,000 dead. (estimated without social distancing)

So, just want to be sure I'm interpreting this correctly.  You don't bother to read any of the official or verifiable sources I provide and continue to make up you own data.  Or, you don't consider any of these trustworthy sources?

 

The data I provided is from the University of Texas, Johns Hopkins University and the CDC.  Just want to know what we're dealing with here.  If you have contradicting data, I will be happy to review it.

 

If not, sure, you do you.  But I am glad the theme park operators, cruise lines, State of Florida and everyone else are using such data.

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Posted (edited)

Again. Seriously when was the last flu season you saw with 100,000 dead in 2 months and morgues overflowing? At the end of March USA had less than 500 deaths. We were told it was 15 cases and would soon be zero in Feb! Now 100,000. Name me a flu season with that that isn’t 1918.
 

if you think cruises are going to start soon and allow over 70s and other high risk groups on when they do start you are in for a surprise. You might get one or two ships going out as guinea pigs but have fun with face masks and in room dining. What about that CDC report on the Diamond Princess right?

Edited by pmd98052

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7 minutes ago, pmd98052 said:

Again. Seriously when was the last flu season you saw with 100,000 dead in 2 months and morgues overflowing?

Sorry, but best I can tell is you're just typing whatever number you happen to remember without checking if it's updated, changed or obsolete.

 

The situation on the Diamond Princess is not relevant other then maybe as an example of what not to do: https://www.businessinsider.com/quarantine-may-have-helped-spread-cruise-ship-coronavirus-experts-say-2020-2?op=1

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Posted (edited)

I’m sorry are you saying 100,000 people haven’t died since late March?

 

The situation of how rapidly COVID19 spread on Diamond Princess is entirely relevant to when and how cruising can start again. Like you said a text book case of how the virus spreads rapidly on a cruise ship. It’s not good news for reopening cruising prior to a vaccine.

Edited by pmd98052

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On 5/24/2020 at 3:01 PM, pcakes122 said:

t was 37 minutes (I made a point of noting) from the time I pulled in to the time I pulled out.  That test was also on a Wednesday and I had results Thursday morning at 9 o'clock.

 

 So it is getting better and easier!

Also from NJ. Went on a cruise in Feb.  Home Mar 1st - Fever, cough.  Four wks later had antibody test which came back negative.  Turns out just bad case of flu.  Have cruise scheduled for Dec and would really like to get vaccinated before boarding. Would feel much better about being amongst large group of people.

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15 minutes ago, kitty-sail said:

Also from NJ. Went on a cruise in Feb.  Home Mar 1st - Fever, cough.  Four wks later had antibody test which came back negative.  Turns out just bad case of flu.  Have cruise scheduled for Dec and would really like to get vaccinated before boarding. Would feel much better about being amongst large group of people.

 I'm not sure how confident I feel in the current antibody tests.  They are saying there are so many false negatives.  Did you ever get a Covid-19 test?  My cruise got back to NYC on March 15th.  I had three positive Covid tests over the next 6 weeks, and finally got my negative two weeks ago. 😊

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17 hours ago, boatseller said:

Sorry, but best I can tell is you're just typing whatever number you happen to remember without checking if it's updated, changed or obsolete.

 

The situation on the Diamond Princess is not relevant other then maybe as an example of what not to do: https://www.businessinsider.com/quarantine-may-have-helped-spread-cruise-ship-coronavirus-experts-say-2020-2?op=1

The 100k number isn't in dispute. Even the president mentioned it today, and if anything he's argued the number of deaths is being overc-ounted (it's not - it's being drastically undercounted) 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, pcakes122 said:

 I'm not sure how confident I feel in the current antibody tests.  They are saying there are so many false negatives.  Did you ever get a Covid-19 test?  My cruise got back to NYC on March 15th.  I had three positive Covid tests over the next 6 weeks, and finally got my negative two weeks ago. 😊

Since by the time I went for testing, symptoms had subsided.  In Mar NJ was only testing people with fever at the PNC Holmdel with Dr note.   Took antibody test May 1st when antibody testing became available which came up negative.  If what I had was only flu, it was a bad case. NCL was taking precautions the first 3 sea days.

Edited by kitty-sail

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