Covid-19 Testing

[pcakes122]

2 minutes ago, kitty-sail said:

 In Mar NJ was only testing people with fever at the PNC Holmdel with Dr note.   

I was tested at PNC in March and I didn't have a fever.  I did have a doctor's prescription, but I also had a letter from NCL advising their had been a confirmed Covid-19 case on the 3/1 Bliss sailing (and I also brought a copy of my boarding pass from my cruise.)  So even without a fever they did test me (btw they were not taking temperatures there, so I'm not sure how they would know whether someone had a fever or not.)   At that time they had nurses doing the swab tests, now PNC is self-swab.

[boatseller]

21 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

I’m sorry are you saying 100,000 people haven’t died since late March?

 

The situation of how rapidly COVID19 spread on Diamond Princess is entirely relevant to when and how cruising can start again. Like you said a text book case of how the virus spreads rapidly on a cruise ship. It’s not good news for reopening cruising prior to a vaccine.

Ok, now you've confirmed you either don't ready my posts or...whatever...I just referenced the 100k number myself.

 

It's really literally right in he title "quarantine practices may have helped spread coronavirus on the Diamond Princess".

 

Sorry to upset your personal reality.  Like I said, I'm glad the cruise lines, theme park operators and officials here in Florida are look at real data and case scenarios.

[pmd98052]

44 minutes ago, boatseller said:

quarantine practices may have helped spread coronavirus on the Diamond Princess

 

What do you think a 7 or 14 or 21 or 28 or 41 night cruise is? Its 7+ days of quarantine on a ship with the added advantage of port time where you might pick up more infections from new places.

 

Cruising if you're in a high risk group (over 70, over weight, asthma, high blood pressure, CPAP, diabetes etc) isn't going to be a risk cruise lines are going to take.

 

Perhaps if you pass an antibody test prior to boarding, wear masks, and can prove you have immunity; but again not enough is known about the disease to even know if that helps. NCL/CCL etc are not going to risk getting sued by people in high risk groups who can't prove they've already had this and scientists prove that once you've had this you cannot get it again.

 

 

Edited May 28, 2020 by pmd98052

[Paul Bogle]

58 minutes ago, pmd98052 said:

Cruising if you're in a high risk group (over 70, over weight, asthma, high blood pressure, CPAP, diabetes etc) isn't going to be a risk cruise lines are going to take.

 

Perhaps if you pass an antibody test prior to boarding, wear masks, and can prove you have immunity; but again not enough is known about the disease to even know if that helps. NCL/CCL etc are not going to risk getting sued by people in high risk groups who can't prove they've already had this and scientists prove that once you've had this you cannot get it again.

 

 

 

If you are in a high risk group you shouldn't consider a cruise until a vaccine is developed.

 

I think cruise lines will deal with this by requiring passengers to sign a liability waiver informing them of the risks of covid 19, the mitigation techniques the line is using and the passenger is ultimately responsible for the decision to cruise and the risks and costs that may come with that decision.

 

If a person passes an antibody test and can prove immunity, why should such a person be required to wear a mask?

[BirdTravels]

2 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

Cruising if you're in a high risk group (over 70, over weight, asthma, high blood pressure, CPAP, diabetes etc) isn't going to be a risk cruise lines are going to take.

Sure they are.That is their bread-n-butter demographic. 

[gizfish]

5 hours ago, Paul Bogle said:

 

If you are in a high risk group you shouldn't consider a cruise until a vaccine is developed.

 

I think cruise lines will deal with this by requiring passengers to sign a liability waiver informing them of the risks of covid 19, the mitigation techniques the line is using and the passenger is ultimately responsible for the decision to cruise and the risks and costs that may come with that decision.

 

If a person passes an antibody test and can prove immunity, why should such a person be required to wear a mask?

Since antibody tests just prove exposure to the virus, and at this point (and probably for the foreseeable future) there is absolutely no way to prove immunity, unless the virus disappears or there is a vaccination, everyone will be needing to keep social distancing and wearing face coverings.

[pmd98052]

9 hours ago, Paul Bogle said:

If a person passes an antibody test and can prove immunity, why should such a person be required to wear a mask?

 

Because people are morons and will abuse the system. 

[Paul Bogle]

15 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

Perhaps if you pass an antibody test prior to boarding, wear masks, and can prove you have immunity;

 

I took this as a hypothetical.

 

14 hours ago, Paul Bogle said:

If a person passes an antibody test and can prove immunity, why should such a person be required to wear a mask?

 

I responded to the hypothetical.

 

8 hours ago, gizfish said:

Since antibody tests just prove exposure to the virus, and at this point (and probably for the foreseeable future) there is absolutely no way to prove immunity,

[ray98]

At least all the testing is starting to give an accurate overall picture.

Antibody Tests Point To Lower Death Rate For The Coronavirus Than First Thought

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/05/28/863944333/antibody-tests-point-to-lower-death-rate-for-the-coronavirus-than-first-thought

 

 

 

 

 

[boatseller]

20 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

 

What do you think a 7 or 14 or 21 or 28 or 41 night cruise is? Its 7+ days of quarantine on a ship with the added advantage of port time where you might pick up more infections from new places.

 

Cruising if you're in a high risk group (over 70, over weight, asthma, high blood pressure, CPAP, diabetes etc) isn't going to be a risk cruise lines are going to take.

 

Perhaps if you pass an antibody test prior to boarding, wear masks, and can prove you have immunity; but again not enough is known about the disease to even know if that helps. NCL/CCL etc are not going to risk getting sued by people in high risk groups who can't prove they've already had this and scientists prove that once you've had this you cannot get it again.

 

 

Thanks for proving you either don't ready my posts or, well, like our other friend.  In probably every other post I've said if you have factors, don't cruise.

[npcl]

On 5/27/2020 at 2:47 PM, boatseller said:

Sorry, but best I can tell is you're just typing whatever number you happen to remember without checking if it's updated, changed or obsolete.

 

The situation on the Diamond Princess is not relevant other then maybe as an example of what not to do: https://www.businessinsider.com/quarantine-may-have-helped-spread-cruise-ship-coronavirus-experts-say-2020-2?op=1

You might want to read the in depth analysis that was done after the Diamond incident.  Available from the Japanese Institute of infectious.  Unlike the business insider article, which is mostly speculation on keeping them on the ship vs off the ship.  The IID analysis goes into considerable depth of exactly when symptoms developed, where the passengers and crew were housed, as well as detailed reports concerning behaviors during the incident.

 

To hit the highlights.

 

1. The passengers were mostly infected prior to the quarantine, when normal activities were taking place.  With the exception of cabin mates of other infected passengers.

 

2. The crew had some (mostly passenger facing positions) that got infected prior to the quarantine, but mostly of the crew infections occurred after the passengers were isolated and the crew was not.  During this time they were still involved in close contact conditions (while working, crew dining, etc)

 

3. There were also issues with how the crew were using their PPD.  Even though they were trained, they often did not wear their masks correctly, and when wearing gloves they neglected to clean or disinfect the gloves often enough.

 

Some of the information from the IIS report was include in a documentary from NHK that someone had posted in a streams (under Princess I believe).

[Indykitten]

2 hours ago, npcl said:

Some of the information from the IIS report was include in a documentary from NHK that someone had posted in a streams (under Princess I believe).

Is this what you were referencing? It's fascinating. 

 

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9417-covid-dp-fe-02.html

[npcl]

23 hours ago, Paul Bogle said:

 

If you are in a high risk group you shouldn't consider a cruise until a vaccine is developed.

 

I think cruise lines will deal with this by requiring passengers to sign a liability waiver informing them of the risks of covid 19, the mitigation techniques the line is using and the passenger is ultimately responsible for the decision to cruise and the risks and costs that may come with that decision.

 

If a person passes an antibody test and can prove immunity, why should such a person be required to wear a mask?

Because even for the best antibody test that currently exists (95 specificity)for every 100 people tested 5 will get a false positive.  So at current infection levels over most of the US you will have approximately as many false positives as you will true positives.

 

Also while the test might show antibodies, it does not necessarily show level of those antibodies and that they might convey any level of immunity.  Even a titer test of antibodies, will not give that information because no one knows what level of antibodies are necessary for immunity.

Edited May 29, 2020 by npcl

[Paul Bogle]

5 minutes ago, npcl said:

Because even for the best antibody test that currently exists (95 specificity)for every 100 people tested 5 will get a false positive.  So at current infection levels over most of the US you will have approximately as many false positives as you will true positives.

 

Also while the test might show antibodies, it does not necessarily show level of those antibodies and that they might convey any level of immunity.  Even a titer test of antibodies, will not give that information because no one knows what level of antibodies are necessary for immunity.

 

Again....we were discussing a hypothetical world in which antibody tests were highly accurate and demonstrated immunity. 

 

Selective reading causes these misunderstandings. Please read more closely.

[pmd98052]

5 hours ago, boatseller said:

Thanks for proving you either don't ready my posts or, well, like our other friend.  In probably every other post I've said if you have factors, don't cruise.

 

Didn't you say you were over 70? What if you caught it, didn't have symptoms, but passed it on to an elderly relative? Risk you're willing to take for a cruise?

 

Read above for the CDC too. Report is clear the virus spread like wild fire long before the Diamond Princess quarantine kicked in. Spread through the food galleys and food staff to - not just passengers.

[npcl]

2 hours ago, Indykitten said:

Is this what you were referencing? It's fascinating. 

 

https://www.niid.go.jp/niid/en/2019-ncov-e/9417-covid-dp-fe-02.html

Yes that is one of the reports.  There is more detail as well in other specific reports.

 

This link is for the NHK documentary

 

https://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/en/ondemand/video/4001358/

 

 

[boatseller]

17 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

Read above for the CDC too. Report is clear the virus spread like wild fire long before the Diamond Princess quarantine kicked in. Spread through the food galleys and food staff to - not just passengers.

So, even when someone else does the research, you still don't bother to read it?  Please, just quit while I'm ahead.

 

Here's the deal with that, no other ship was quarantined like this, even the Grand Princess or Zaadam, yet Diamond Princess has a substantially higher case rate.

 

And it's not me or even Business Insider making claims about the quarantine, it's similar experts.

[pmd98052]

1 hour ago, boatseller said:

So, even when someone else does the research, you still don't bother to read it?  Please, just quit while I'm ahead.

 

Here's the deal with that, no other ship was quarantined like this, even the Grand Princess or Zaadam, yet Diamond Princess has a substantially higher case rate.

 

And it's not me or even Business Insider making claims about the quarantine, it's similar experts.

 

Its pretty obvious that a) You haven't read the CDC report b) You haven't watched the NHK documentary..

 

Nor did you answer my question. You've said before you are over 70. I hate to break it to you but you won't be crusing for a long time.

 

To quote from the CDC report again. You ain't cruising any time soon:

 

"(1). Cruise ships bring diverse populations into proximity for many days, facilitating transmission of respiratory illness

(2). SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease (COVID-19) was first identified in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and has since spread worldwide to at least 187 countries and territories. Widespread COVID-19 transmission on cruise ships has been reported as well

(3). Passengers on certain cruise ship voyages might be aged ≥65 years, which places them at greater risk for severe consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection

(4). During February–March 2020, COVID-19 outbreaks associated with three cruise ship voyages have caused more than 800 laboratory-confirmed cases among passengers and crew, including 10 deaths. Transmission occurred across multiple voyages of several ships. This report describes public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on these ships. COVID-19 on cruise ships poses a risk for rapid spread of disease, causing outbreaks in a vulnerable population, and aggressive efforts are required to contain spread. All persons should defer all cruise travel worldwide during the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Cruise ships are often settings for outbreaks of infectious diseases because of their closed environment, contact between travelers from many countries, and crew transfers between ships. On the Diamond Princess, transmission largely occurred among passengers before quarantine was implemented, whereas crew infections peaked after quarantine (6). On the Grand Princess, crew members were likely infected on voyage A and then transmitted SARS-CoV-2 to passengers on voyage B. The results of testing of passengers and crew on board the Diamond Princess demonstrated a high proportion (46.5%) of asymptomatic infections at the time of testing.

 

Factors that facilitate spread on cruise ships might include mingling of travelers from multiple geographic regions and the closed nature of a cruise ship environment. This is particularly concerning for older passengers, who are at increased risk for serious complications of COVID-19 (4). The Grand Princess was an example of perpetuation of transmission from crew members across multiple consecutive voyages and the potential introduction of the virus to passengers and crew on other ships. Public health responses to cruise ship outbreaks require extensive resources. "

Edited May 30, 2020 by pmd98052

[npcl]

6 hours ago, boatseller said:

So, even when someone else does the research, you still don't bother to read it?  Please, just quit while I'm ahead.

 

Here's the deal with that, no other ship was quarantined like this, even the Grand Princess or Zaadam, yet Diamond Princess has a substantially higher case rate.

 

And it's not me or even Business Insider making claims about the quarantine, it's similar experts.

Unfortunately we do not know if that difference is reality or merely represents the level of testing done on the Diamond compared to the other cases.  Even with more limited testing and tracking some of the other ships seem to yield similar results. The Diamond was the only fully tested large cruise ship.

 

 

Keep in mind that the Diamond was the only one where everyone was tested, usually several times both in Japan and when evacuated to their home countries.

 

With the Grand Princess those that were not showing symptoms did not have to test at the end of quarantine in the US sites, Some passengers in the US were able to do home quarantine, some sent to other countries were, so wile there were many cases the data on the absolute total was by no means as complete as with the Diamond.

 

With the Zaandam (and the passengers transferred to Rotterdam the they were reporting approx 200 having flu like symptoms, but very few were tested.  Only those who were considered to be critical.  As such only 9 positive tests because only those needing critical care were tested.  Yet when it docked out of the 406 passengers that remained on board (not evacuated to the Rotterdam) there were 73 with flu like symptoms, as well as 116 crew.  We do not know how many asymptomatic because they were not tested (51% of the Diamond passengers were asymptomatic).  Do not know how many on the Rotterdam because they were not tested.  Do not know how many crew later developed symptoms because they were not tested or reported. Not even those with Flu like symptoms were tested.

 

 

With the Ruby  over 440 Australian passengers have tested positive (some reports put the number as over 600 among passengers and crew but do not define if that includes those outside Australia, pretty close to the Diamond Numbers).  Unfortunately there was no isolation, and no quarantine for the passengers before they left the ship.  The number of Australian passengers is from the contact tracing done on Australian passengers from the ship. Australia did contact those from the ship and they were told to self quarantine. For those that flew to other countries there is little information, though we do know that at least 35 international that were on the ship also tested positive.  No one tracked most of the non-Australian passengers so no clear numbers how many others may also have tested. Asymptomatic passengers were not tested.  So the number from the Ruby could very well be in the same range as the Diamond. If the 440 in Australia were those that did develop symptoms while in self quarantine and did not include asymptomatic cases, then with the Diamond ratio you might get a greater number of infections with the Ruby. Unfortunately again that data is not available.

 

Unfortunately the cruise lines have limited testing to the bare minimum and have done their best to hide behind flu like symptoms.

 

Even now cases are still turning up. 50 days after the last passenger left. Royal Caribbean was repatriating crew to St Vincent on May 27.  St Vincent required full testing of all crew members being dropped off.  These crew members had been in isolation since May 4th.  When they did antibody tests they got 29 positives.  So they did PCR tests.  So far 7 positive Covid-19 cases out of the first 77 tests.  They are still waiting on 292 tests additional test results. %0 days after the last passenger left still getting positive PCR test results. Yet the cruise lines are only testing crew when they are being forced to.

 

7 Royal Caribbean Crew Test Positive for COVID-19

https://searchlight.vc/searchlight/front-page/2020/05/29/7-royal-caribbean-crew-test-positive-for-covid-19/

 

The new positive cases, all of whom had previously tested positive on rapid antibody tests, are from 65 tests belonging to Royal Caribbean Cruise Line (RCCL) crew members who arrived here on Tuesday, May 26 on the Vision of the Seas,” the release said

Edited May 30, 2020 by npcl

[CruzRamirez]

COVID 19 RT-PCR and antibody tests need to be improved in terms of their diagnostic accuracy.

 

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/86734

[boatseller]

On 5/30/2020 at 1:24 PM, pmd98052 said:

You've said before you are over 70.

That's news to me.  Can you provide the exact quote where I say this?  Last chance...you can still quit now...

[pmd98052]

On 6/1/2020 at 2:16 PM, boatseller said:

That's news to me.  Can you provide the exact quote where I say this?  Last chance...you can still quit now...

 

Well if you're not good news. It really is all about you then. Your risk is low. For others not so much. Keep away from others and its just you you you. 

[boatseller]

1 hour ago, pmd98052 said:

Well if you're not good news. It really is all about you then. Your risk is low. For others not so much. Keep away from others and its just you you you. 

You do realize that is exactly the guidance?  The  guidance I've been saying to follow all along.  If you're unwilling to even read the guidance, please consider us fellow cruisers and wait a few years to cruise.  Thanks.

[pmd98052]

10 hours ago, boatseller said:

You do realize that is exactly the guidance?  The  guidance I've been saying to follow all along.  If you're unwilling to even read the guidance, please consider us fellow cruisers and wait a few years to cruise.  Thanks.

 

Sorry what exactly is your understanding of the guidance?

 

You realize that despite your personal risk of dying being low there is a reason ports are not going to let cruise ships dock right? Its the risks to others that is the key factor. Its the law of large numbers. A 0.5% risk to you applied to hundreds of milllions of others is a lot of death.

 

I have a jar of 300 million jelly beans. Only 15 million (0.5%) of those jellly beans will kill you. I am going to feed one to everyone in the country. You will likely be fine. Others won't be. Its not all about you.

Edited June 4, 2020 by pmd98052

[boatseller]

3 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

 

Sorry what exactly is your understanding of the guidance?

 

You realize that despite your personal risk of dying being low there is a reason ports are not going to let cruise ships dock right? Its the risks to others that is the key factor. Its the law of large numbers. A 0.5% risk to you applied to hundreds of milllions of others is a lot of death.

 

I have a jar of 300 million jelly beans. Only 15 million (0.5%) of those jellly beans will kill you. I am going to feed one to everyone in the country. You will likely be fine. Others won't be. Its not all about you.

Fine, back to this.  Are you going to commit to isolating yourself until all potentially lethal diseases are cured/treatable to guarantee you won't spread them?  Like Influenza?  Or are you totally fine so long as the number of deaths is just below some conveniently determined, by you, threshold?  I'm guessing that number is 79,999.

 

No one should be shamed by attitudes like yours.  Just follow the rules.  If the ports are open, the local authorities have determined that in consultation with the cruise lines, no reason to second guess them.