What do you consider 1/2 capacity

[Sam Ting]

20 hours ago, mking8288 said:

If cruise lines are going to block off some cabins to use for medical use as surge/ICU beds, they will likely set aside some of the Inside cabins nearest to the medical center, but not necessary just those. It is much more difficult to get medical equipments AND personnel into smaller cabins used for quarantine, isolation and ICU level of care.  

 

What about crew quarters, depending on the specific/class of ship - some of them share cabins - whether it's double or triple occupancy.  Although, I would expect a reduction in overall # of crew.  

 

I am sure some might've seen/read this article about where the first "trial" of shorter cruises are most likely to sail from (on CR - predicted to be either Asia or Europe) - and where "smaller" mid-sized ships might be preferred, JMHO.  

https://cruiseradio.net/cruise-execs-reveal-where-first-cruise-ships-could-sail-from/

 

 

If the cruise lines have to block off cabins for medical use and surge ICU beds, you would have to be out of your mind for even considering a cruise.  A cruise cabin is not an ICU room and god only knows where they dig up the doctors onboard. 

[CruizinKittie40]

16 hours ago, seaman11 said:

And do what?  Same boring thing you were doing for 3 months already?  Yes there will be some rescitions and things will be a bit different. im still willing to go .  i dont mind taking precautions.

Same! I booked a September and October cruise hoping one will sail! No chance if you don't take it! 

[CruizinKittie40]

1 hour ago, sanger727 said:

 

I know you can't wait to take your first cruise when they start back up again. I agree with the poster you quoted. I assume you live within driving distance of a port? I don't. I have to fly to get to a port, so we are talking between $300-$500 each on top of the cruise fare just to get to a port. And assuming a minimum cruise fare of another $300-$500 for even a short cruise. Plus port fees, taxes, tips.... No thanks, I can think of much better ways to spend $1,500-$2,500 (not including the vacation time I have to take off work) than traveling all the way to florida, jumping on a ship for a short cruise to Nassau, and then traveling all the way back; all the while no guarantees what will and will not be open on the ship, whether or not masks will be required, etc.

 

We take an annual vacation because that is what works for us with vacation time and cost restraints. I'd rather not take a vacation this year and have a larger budget for next year than spend the money and vacation time for an unknown experience. 

 

But please, go ahead and take one so I can see how it goes. It's a bit like early adapters with a new technology. Let the early adapters try it first so they can work the bugs out. 

Who in God's name would do all that for Nassau? Come on now...Really?

[vpearlkc]

21 minutes ago, Sam Ting said:

If the cruise lines have to block off cabins for medical use and surge ICU beds, you would have to be out of your mind for even considering a cruise.  A cruise cabin is not an ICU room and god only knows where they dig up the doctors onboard. 

 

I agree. I also have no idea how much it costs to equip and staff an ICU. Probably much cheaper to evacuate sick people by helicopter. We have had eight great cruises over the last 25 years or so and still have the 9th booked that we will cancel sometime before the December final payment. I don't want my next cruise to be the cruise from hell.

 

[chengkp75]

21 hours ago, seaman11 said:

i read saw on a video that the ship can break even at 30-33% capacity . 

No, he said they could "kind of" break even at that capacity.  He was talking about breaking even on an EBITDA basis, which means they are discounting the interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization costs that are normally part of the ship's expenses.

[seaman11]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

No, he said they could "kind of" break even at that capacity.  He was talking about breaking even on an EBITDA basis, which means they are discounting the interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization costs that are normally part of the ship's expenses.

symantics.  either way the point is they dont have to run them full at the beginning and likely will not. 

[chengkp75]

6 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

symantics.  either way the point is they dont have to run them full at the beginning and likely will not. 

Only semantics if you are not paying the bills.  This is like saying, we can afford this house because we can pay the bills, but not the mortgage.  The man even said that it was an accounting "break even".  Now, is losing $1 million a month better than losing $2 million a month, sure, but it sure isn't "breaking even".   And, news flash, no one even expects them to run at full capacity, nor all ships starting at once.

[vpearlkc]

2 hours ago, CruizinKittie40 said:

Who in God's name would do all that for Nassau? Come on now...Really?

 

Maybe seasoned cruisers with dozens of cruises under their belt don't think much of Nassau but our first cruise to the Bahamas in about 1995 on the Big Red Boat lasted three days and impressed us greatly. It got us hooked.

 

[Sam Ting]

52 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

Only semantics if you are not paying the bills.  This is like saying, we can afford this house because we can pay the bills, but not the mortgage.  The man even said that it was an accounting "break even".  Now, is losing $1 million a month better than losing $2 million a month, sure, but it sure isn't "breaking even".   And, news flash, no one even expects them to run at full capacity, nor all ships starting at once.

That’s your opinion. I will go with the CEO’s statement. 

[CruizinKittie40]

1 hour ago, vpearlkc said:

 

Maybe seasoned cruisers with dozens of cruises under their belt don't think much of Nassau but our first cruise to the Bahamas in about 1995 on the Big Red Boat lasted three days and impressed us greatly. It got us hooked.

 

It was my first cruise as well but I can't see any first timers doing all that for Nassau and certainly no return cruisers. 

[Nclcruise1415]

Not NCL related but Bahamas Paradise will begin sailing at 60% capacity starting July 26th. Article has a lot of information regarding plans moving forward.

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22998-bahamas-paradise-back-to-cruising-in-july-60-percent-capacity.html

 

 

[Paul Bogle]

Bahamas Paradise is a hybrid which is more ferry service than cruise line. The fact that Grand Bahama Island is open to hosting tourism soon is a very good sign that short cruises to the Bahamas may restart this year.

[pinkie60]

2 hours ago, Paul Bogle said:

Bahamas Paradise is a hybrid which is more ferry service than cruise line. The fact that Grand Bahama Island is open to hosting tourism soon is a very good sign that short cruises to the Bahamas may restart this year.

It maybe a ferry service to you but to many people in Florida and the Bahamas it’s a great vacation. It gives them a chance to see what a cruise is like without having to go into debt. 

[BonnieJeanne]

We cruised on a full ship last August. Capacity 3000 but only 2400 on board with all cabins full. Crew member said following week there would be 600 more people onboard for holiday cruise as 3rd and  4th passengers.

 

so is 1/2 capacity only 1/2 of cabins booked or 1/2 of 3000.  
 

will be interesting to see how the numbers play out

Hmmmn. 1/2 capacity would include the crew. So if max was 3000 guests and 1500 crew, it would seem half would be 2250. If they still had a crew of, say, 1000, that would only leave 1250 guests? Easier to get a chair by the pool? I would think they would book balcony and higher, to get more revenue per person. And also, those guests are more likely to spend money on board (shopping, casino, specialty dining?).


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[seaman11]

8 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Only semantics if you are not paying the bills.  This is like saying, we can afford this house because we can pay the bills, but not the mortgage.  The man even said that it was an accounting "break even".  Now, is losing $1 million a month better than losing $2 million a month, sure, but it sure isn't "breaking even".   And, news flash, no one even expects them to run at full capacity, nor all ships starting at once.

So then 50 percent capacity should be more than adequate to break even for them , correct?   you are also talking about the whole company when the 33 % was referring to the sailing ship costs.   they need to start getting them going so they are ok with no profit at the start. 

[mugtech]

1 hour ago, seaman11 said:

So then 50 percent capacity should be more than adequate to break even for them , correct?    

Wrong

[seaman11]

1 hour ago, mugtech said:

Wrong

Not according to rcl ceo.  He said they only need 33 percent capacity to break even on a cruise.   How do you think they get the money to build huge ships?   There is a lot of profit on each cruise if full.  

[mugtech]

7 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

Not according to rcl ceo.  He said they only need 33 percent capacity to break even on a cruise.   How do you think they get the money to build huge ships?   There is a lot of profit on each cruise if full.  

Even on cash flow just for the operation of that ship on that cruise.  Does not pay for the loans, interest on the loans, taxes.  Does not include the depreciation or amortization for that ship.  Still losing money, not quite as much as not sailing, but not paying any loans, interest or improvements.

[All-ready2cruise]

14 minutes ago, mugtech said:

Even on cash flow just for the operation of that ship on that cruise.  Does not pay for the loans, interest on the loans, taxes.  Does not include the depreciation or amortization for that ship.  Still losing money, not quite as much as not sailing, but not paying any loans, interest or improvements.

But it might get the CEO his bonus... that's all he cares about.... nuff said!

[seaman11]

4 minutes ago, All-ready2cruise said:

But it might get the CEO his bonus... that's all he cares about.... nuff said!

They are willing to do this to get started. Intially its not about making money.  

[chengkp75]

10 hours ago, seaman11 said:

So then 50 percent capacity should be more than adequate to break even for them , correct?   you are also talking about the whole company when the 33 % was referring to the sailing ship costs.   they need to start getting them going so they are ok with no profit at the start. 

No, I am talking about each ship, as each ship is considered its own profit/loss center.  And that is what the RCI executives were saying, is that "some" ships could "break even" discounting EBITDA.  So, what they are saying is that 33% of capacity cruise fares, plus 33% of onboard revenue would about cover operating expenses.  Normally, cruise fares cover operating expenses (including the things left out of EBITDA), and the onboard revenue is profit.  For any ship to actually "break even" including paying the mortgage, would require about 75-80% capacity.  Would sailing at 33% mean they would lose less each month than having the ship sit idle, then yes, but that ship would not be "breaking even", and the company would still be losing money.

[chengkp75]

7 hours ago, seaman11 said:

Not according to rcl ceo.  He said they only need 33 percent capacity to break even on a cruise.   How do you think they get the money to build huge ships?   There is a lot of profit on each cruise if full.  

How do they get the money to build huge ships?  How does one get money to buy or build a house?  Financing.  There is not a "lot of profit" with a full cruise.  Lots of people talk about the annual profits that cruise lines make, but there is a huge amount of investment into the assets of the company (the ships), and the "return on investment" for cruise lines places them about mid-range of most corporations, so they are not hugely attractive to investors.

[CruiseMH]

7 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

How do they get the money to build huge ships?  How does one get money to buy or build a house?  Financing.  There is not a "lot of profit" with a full cruise.

 

There is a lot of profit. they buy a new ship for e.g. 800 Million USD.This ship is planned for approx. 30 years of operations(thats what i read what the usual plan is). This means that this ship must make a prift of at least 26,6 Million USD each year just to pay itself off. And as the cruise lines don`t pay in one lot but make a financing over several years or even decades there will be for sure some interests to pay for their loans. So this means each ship must make a profit of 27 to 29 million euros each year. And you can be sure that after 30 years this ship has not made 800 million USD but for sure a lot more. Cause the cruise lines would not operate a ship for 30 years with all the efforts just to make a breakeven after 30 years.

Yes, the return on sales might not be astronomic, but it will be somewhere between 5 and 10 %.

 

And to get back to OP`s question: I think 50% capacity means 50% of the double occupancy passengers.

Anything else would be too much and there is no chance of social distancing and all the other additional measures to be fulfilled.

 

[chengkp75]

2 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

This means that this ship must make a prift of at least 26,6 Million USD each year just to pay itself off.

If that is the amount needed to "pay itself off", i.e. pay off the financing, then that money is not "profit".  Profit comes after all expenses, including interest and amortization of any financing.  "Profit means that I can spend that money on anything I want, it is not needed for any expense, and amortization and interest are certainly expenses.  Take your paycheck, and pay your bills, is the rest "profit" even though you haven't paid the rent or mortgage?  Industry standard is that a ship sailing at 100% of normal capacity breaks even on cruise fares, and the profit comes from "onboard revenue" (drinks, specialty restaurants, casino, shops, art, etc).

[hamrag]

On 5/26/2020 at 8:29 PM, Nclcruise1415 said:

Not NCL related but Bahamas Paradise will begin sailing at 60% capacity starting July 26th. Article has a lot of information regarding plans moving forward.

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/22998-bahamas-paradise-back-to-cruising-in-july-60-percent-capacity.html

 

 

 Seaman....you can cruise in July....😂