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Boatdrill

Hawaii Predicts No Cruises Until Late 2021

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Posted (edited)

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23000-hawaii-predicts-no-cruise-passengers-until-second-half-of-2021.html

 

"In a report issued by Hawaii's Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, officials predict the state will not see cruise traffic until the second half of 2021..

'No cruise visitors until second half of 2021," said the report. "It will take 6 years for visitor arrivals to recover to the 2019 level. This is based on the 2009 great recession pace.' "

 

Of course the state may reopen to cruise ships earlier.  Time will tell.

Edited by Boatdrill

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I'm not surprised by this announcement.  I think that many states want to error on the side of caution.  At one time, we were looking into the possibility of a Hawaii cruise, departing from San Diego, in January 2021.  Because of the required deposits and the uncertainty surrounding these deposits, we never made a booking.  It would appear that we made the right decision.  There are still too many uncertainties regarding the tourist industry and the cruising industry more specifically.

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19 minutes ago, Boatdrill said:

 

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23000-hawaii-predicts-no-cruise-passengers-until-second-half-of-2021.html

 

"In a report issued by Hawaii's Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism, officials predict the state will not see cruise traffic until the second half of 2021..

'No cruise visitors until second half of 2021," said the report. "It will take 6 years for visitor arrivals to recover to the 2019 level. This is based on the 2009 great recession pace.' "

 

Of course the state may reopen to cruise ships earlier.  Time will tell.

 

I'm not sure how well reasoned that prediction is.  The 2009 "great recession" was based on economic failures.  While the businesses closing because of the pandemic certainly has had severe economic results, the economy itself was in better shape before the pandemic and may well not take six years to recover now that it is reopening.

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I'd like to know who the 'officials' are...

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Frankly Friends, I think Hawaii is being ridiculous!

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

I'd like to know who the 'officials' are...

Good point....Also I bet there will be a huge debate between the tourism sector, and politicians on when and how to resume tourism.   Are they really going to let the airlines bring in thousands of tourists before letting the POA sail again??

Edited by drlucy12

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Have to agree...this certainly seems a fair amount over cooked. Interesting that no one put their name to this prediction.

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44 minutes ago, Tampa Girl said:

 

I'm not sure how well reasoned that prediction is.  The 2009 "great recession" was based on economic failures.  While the businesses closing because of the pandemic certainly has had severe economic results, the economy itself was in better shape before the pandemic and may well not take six years to recover now that it is reopening.

That was exactly my initial reaction - this isn't an economic depression in the traditional sense since there's still consumer demand, and it all depends on the course of the virus. To compare it to previous economic recessions doesn't make sense; it should be compared to previous pandemics.

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37 minutes ago, Himself said:

Frankly Friends, I think Hawaii is being ridiculous!

 

Agree but not surprised, when we were there a couple years ago we noted how cautious they were, every time we went on/off the ship we were scrutinized and inspected in addition to ship security; a bit much for a sailing that originated in the US/Canada.  

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If you read the actual statement, it is a "prediction" or "model" of the economy forecast.  The "no cruise visitors until the second half of 2021" is an assumption used to make this prediction, it is not state policy.

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I will assume then that they will keep the islands closed entirely to all air traffic incoming otherwise what's the point....?   We know the islands are one big soup bowl for the entire world to go into so understand their concerns,  but can't understand how they can survive 1.5 years shut down.

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This is not a state policy or rule, it’s just a projection.  I think it’s pretty pessimistic.  There are several lines scheduled to go there this year.  May or may not happen.

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(1)  report:  http://files.hawaii.gov/dbedt/economic/data_reports/qser/qser-2020q2.pdf 

 

(2)   officials  =  This Quarterly Statistical and Economic Report has been prepared by the staff of the Research and Economic Analysis Division of the State Department of Business, Economic Development & Tourism (DBEDT). The report provides concise statistical information and analyses on Labor, Income and Prices, Taxes, Tourism, Construction, and other indicators, as well as an overview of the State of Hawaii and the four counties.

 

(3) assumptions used to generate forecast:

 

image.thumb.png.b6572240a8163ca4b82f39627814c61c.png

Scott. 

 

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58 minutes ago, drlucy12 said:

Are they really going to let the airlines bring in thousands of tourists before letting the POA sail again??

 

 

Actually, the airlines and airports are making major technological and work flow changes. Not just for the safety of employees and guests, but also to improve the customer experience...

 

"Five ways the pandemic may change airports for the better"

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/27/what-will-flying-be-like-how-coronavirus-is-changing-airports.html

 

I would get optimistic about cruising if the cruise industry is willing to invest real money in technology and re-organization. It's not enough to just install Plexiglas between tables.

 

 

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My Grandfather, an armchair philosopher, frequently said, "Liars figure and figures lie." Statistical projections are, at best, a guess. The numbers are heavily subjected to Statistician bias. I really hate to see statistical projects being presented as truth. Statistics can only hope to be accurate when they tell us what happened in the past, and even then, they are still subject to bias.

 

I have a cruise booked for Hawaii in November. Will it sail? I don't know. Do I want to be on the ship when it sails? I don't know. I don't have to decide today. I can live with ambiguity.

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The outlook of Hawaii’s economy is based on the following assumptions:

 

It is an "assumption" re no cruises along with a dozen or so other assumptions.  It had not been written in stone and there will be a lot of pressure to open up Hawaii to cruise ships ONCE a vaccine or better treatments are found.

 

  As with so many things covid related we can all speculate on what may or may not happen the fact is that none of us really knows.

Hawaii has a much bigger concern now as to when to open up all the hotels and accept the normal 30 k tourists a DAY that arrive via air from all over the world.  If they can figure that out then the much smaller cruise ship numbers will likely be relatively easy. 

 

Having lived most of my life in Hawaii I have seen a ton of government projections that turned out to be off by miles from what actually happens.  The latest is the mass transit project that is way way way over budget and way way off of projected completion dates....not even close and these were also based on assumptions and provided by our so called economic "experts".

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Guesswork.... They can't possible predict with any accuracy.

 

My guess is they will be ready for you before many of you are ready for them..

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It is completely possible that this projection goes to the worse case budget, which allows the state to ask the FED for more money based on accurate statistical assumptions. This is their be prepared for the worse case.

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2 hours ago, atexsix said:

 

Agree but not surprised, when we were there a couple years ago we noted how cautious they were, every time we went on/off the ship we were scrutinized and inspected in addition to ship security; a bit much for a sailing that originated in the US/Canada.  

Hawaii has alway been more cautious when people arrive, be it ship or airline.  It is a unique environment and the state has always done it's best to protect from invasive species of flora and fauna, coming and going.  I remember having my golf clubs inspected for dirt on the way out and having to go to the restroom to wash it off.  You can't take just any pineapple home - it has to be OK'd for export.  Right now, anyone arriving to Hawaii must do a 14 day quarantine.  So, I see nothing wrong myself with the state wanting to stay as strict as possible.  No, they aren't discriminating against cruisers.  Please.  I can see some special public health and safety procedures put in place for any cruise ship arriving at any port.  

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not to mention keeping snakes out of the islands in spite of some idiots trying to smuggle them in over and over...as well as stopping snakes from catching a ride in via airlines wheel wells or various shipping containers.....hawaii is a very unique environment and kudos to hawaii for trying to protect the land, seas, and air  of the islands...it is not an easy job so credit where credit is due to at least some parts of the government...

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We are booked on the Koningsdam to Hawaii in February 2021. I hope that ship sails, but would not be totally surprised if it is cancelled.

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1 hour ago, HAL4NOW said:

We are booked on the Koningsdam to Hawaii in February 2021. I hope that ship sails, but would not be totally surprised if it is cancelled.

We are as well. Time will tell.

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5 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

If you read the actual statement, it is a "prediction" or "model" of the economy forecast.  The "no cruise visitors until the second half of 2021" is an assumption used to make this prediction, it is not state policy.


 

Got it in one. It’s an assumption. Economic model based on the potential bad case. If it had read State Of Hawaii bans cruise ships till mid 2021 then fair enough but isn’t the case.

 

Off course we have a vested interest as we are or hopefully are sailing out of Hawaii Jan 2021🙂

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We are booked on Westerdam for September 20th, 2020. It seems silly to ban travelers but they import most of everything else. I can imagine the islands tourist industry wants us back sooner. 

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4 hours ago, Tudy said:

My Grandfather, an armchair philosopher, frequently said, "Liars figure and figures lie." Statistical projections are, at best, a guess

 

Thank you for posting this comment.  It's one that I have heard from others in the past whom I respect.  

 

 

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