When will things start back up?

[njhorseman]

37 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

Many people are testing positive and showing zero problems.    Nurses in many places  test positive and never get sick..   Not everyone exposed has problems.  

But the epidemiologists believe that an asymptomatic carrier still is shedding the virus and can infect others...and you have no way of knowing if you're exposed to an asymptomatic carrier what severity of illness might result to you. 

 

I don't care whether the person standing next to me isn't ill, I care whether the person is infected. And that's why if a person who isn't ill tests positive they are required to quarantine until their tests are negative.

Edited June 13, 2020 by njhorseman

[Hawaiidan]

40 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

But the epidemiologists believe that an asymptomatic carrier still is shedding the virus and can infect others...and you have no way of knowing if you're exposed to an asymptomatic carrier what severity of illness might result to you. 

 

I don't care whether the person standing next to me isn't ill, I care whether the person is infected. And that's why if a person who isn't ill tests positive they are required to quarantine until their tests are negative.

The reality is, thats not happening   even among medical people.....   You have to say "some epidemiologists" ,  as  part of the problem is there is no agreement day to day or week to week with all manner of medical experts.......  There is no agreement.....never has been.

As I have said elsewhere...   you have to make a call yourself for yourself based on your risk tolerance/assement   

You can not rely on all these " experts". models  and opinions  as they are really speculation and not fact...

I am comfortable with my risk and precautions.    Each person needs to be  comfortable with their...  I see people with masks riding bikes, and driving in cars wearing masks !   People cooking and using the bathroom in their own home wearing masks.       You can get carried away  to the extreme...     Logic goes a long way. to overcome fear.   It appears that the psychological impact of the virus is far worse than the disease.

[clo]

1 hour ago, Hawaiidan said:

Many people are testing positive and showing zero problems.    Nurses in many places  test positive and never get sick..   Not everyone exposed has problems.  

And there are plenty who have tested negative and were asymptomatic but actually were infected.

[clo]

2 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

People cooking and using the bathroom in their own home wearing masks.   

You look in people's windows and see such things? Or you just make this stuff up as you go along?

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, Hawaiidan said:

Many people are testing positive and showing zero problems. 

That may well be but that is one chance I am not taking for myself.

That only shows you why all people should wear a mask in public - they may feel well themselves but can infect others who will be less lucky (as in they may get very ill or even die).

 

[Hawaiidan]

2 minutes ago, clo said:

And there are plenty who have tested negative and were asymptomatic but actually were infected.

Thats called life.... there are no guarantees to anything  but yesterday...  you deal with it as part of life.. from a thousand possible risks of all manner.  It is not a perfect world.

[Paulchili]

9 minutes ago, Hawaiidan said:

using the bathroom in their own home wearing masks. 

Where do you see that - I want to see it too (maybe) 😀

Edited June 14, 2020 by Paulchili

[clo]

9 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

That only shows you why all people should wear a mask in public

That is the current advice. Not just in stores but walking to them - as an example. But I'm one of those silly people who reads NIH, CDC, WHO, etc.

[GICNJC]

8 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

This gets to the heart of my concern.

 

I am less concerned, personally, about contracting COVID-19 while aboard a ship, so long as I were convinced that there is a firm plan in place to deal with that contingency. 

 

I do not necessarily need to know that there is a vaccine and 100% control of disease before I cruise. But I do want to know that the ship -- and the appropriate world/country authorities -- are prepared to deal with the situation if it does occur. That includes an understanding that ships can disembark (or medivac if necessary) seriously ill passengers, as well as some kind of rules that ensure ships do not face the situation of having port after port deny them entry will ill passengers onboard.

 

 

While I would love to see COVID19 eradicated it would not be reasonable to expect it to never be as viruses mutate constantly.  Chances  of non exposure are highest when vacines are easily available and the majority of the population are vacinated. 

We are willing to cruise as soon as we are vacinated. 

 

[CintiPam]

10 hours ago, KS&JW said:

 

I was in Hawai'i when the Covid situation just hit its first level of craziness in early March. We flew back and immediately went into lockdown as California was early with the Shelter in Place order.  It was nice to have a nice relaxing trip before having to stay at home for what is now 3 months.    Like many Californians, we visit Hawai'i often.  It is a quick flight for us and excellent place to de-stress.   I hope you are able to get your trip in 2021.  

Thank you, KS&JW.  I appreciate your kindness.

Edited June 14, 2020 by CintiPam

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Hawaiidan said:

2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

 

The reality is, thats not happening   even among medical people.....   You have to say "some epidemiologists" ,  as  part of the problem is there is no agreement day to day or week to week with all manner of medical experts.......  There is no agreement.....never has been.

Earlier this week someone from the WHO claimed that asymptomatic spread was "very rare" but very walked that back almost immediately as it it drew sharp rebukes from other experts.

 

It's more than "some", it's almost everyone...and I'll go with the overwhelming majority vote of the scientists. I think they know more than either of us....and that's how I make up my mind...examination of the best scientific evidence available at the time I'm making my decision. 

[clo]

45 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

I think they know more than either of us....and that's how I make up my mind...examination of the best scientific evidence available at the time I'm making my decision. 

That's what I do. I have enough medical background and can read "a lot" of their reports. And this thing is changing so fast. When I see something from March I almost automatically figure it's no longer "THE" word.

[pinotlover]

I read Wineberserkers, Wine Spectator, and others on a daily basis. They don’t allow Teatotallers to come in day after day proclaiming the evils of alcohol. The monitors warn them and then ban them if they continue. Those are Forums for wine drinkers. This is a Forum for cruisers! It’s past time for those that have no intentions to cruise to find another  outlet to discuss their future non cruising personal plans and give us a break from the self righteous sermons! If you’re not cruising fine! Talk about it elsewhere !

[clo]

1 minute ago, pinotlover said:

I read Wineberserkers, Wine Spectator, and others on a daily basis. They don’t allow Teatotallers to come in day after day proclaiming the evils of alcohol. The monitors warn them and then ban them if they continue. Those are Forums for wine drinkers. This is a Forum for cruisers! It’s past time for those that have no intentions to cruise to find another  outlet to discuss their future non cruising personal plans and give us a break from the self righteous sermons! If you’re not cruising fine! Talk about it elsewhere !

What about those, who are actually long time cruisers, who are still making up their minds about ever cruising again. What about those who have a FCC and are wondering about that? What about those who think they're n charge of the site when they're not. This is for giving and receiving info and opinions. YMMV.

[Flatbush Flyer]

28 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I read Wineberserkers, Wine Spectator, and others on a daily basis. They don’t allow Teatotallers to come in day after day proclaiming the evils of alcohol. The monitors warn them and then ban them if they continue. Those are Forums for wine drinkers. This is a Forum for cruisers! It’s past time for those that have no intentions to cruise to find another  outlet to discuss their future non cruising personal plans and give us a break from the self righteous sermons! If you’re not cruising fine! Talk about it elsewhere !

Amen.

Anyone who keeps posting (ad nauseum) that they won't cruise until there's a vaccine has already made their point over and over and over (and over) again. Easy solution: Not cruising? Stop posting! But you can certainly return once there's a vaccine. 

[clo]

3 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Amen.

Anyone who keeps posting (ad nauseum) that they won't cruise until there's a vaccine has already made their point over and over and over (and over) again. Easy solution: Not cruising? Stop posting! But you can certainly return once there's a vaccine. 

I'm curious how this differs from those who say they would cruise tomorrow. Ad nauseum.

[ToxM]

3 hours ago, clo said:

I'm curious how this differs from those who say they would cruise tomorrow. Ad nauseum.

Not quite tomorrow, or this year in fact, but I have two cruises booked for next year now after vehemently saying for a long time I wasn’t going to cruise until there was a vaccine.

 

I changed my mind because I didn’t see the reality of a vaccine being available for a long time, could choose a small ship for May with less passengers and a 70 minute car ride to embark. I can’t imagine being joined on that cruise by many people who would want to do a transatlantic flight to get to the ship and as I am taking my mum who isn’t the most mobile we won’t be getting off the ship too much so whilst we still have the issue of those who could pick something up whilst on board, or bring it with them we won’t be hauling nasties back onto the ship ourselves. 

 

I also see the virus diminishing in europe pretty quickly (the UK as usual lagging behind). My mum is old and feeling particularly finite lately and wants to have a premium cruise experience, this cruise is so deeply reduced it’s the only way she will be able to experience Oceania as she is no longer able to fly. 

 

The second cruise is on a mass market in a mid sized ship (2k). We are in a suite going to Norway in November, if it’s not gone/vaccines by then the cruise lines will either be gone or know how to deal with it. As I will be mainly standing on a wrap around balcony in possibly subzero temps I think I will be ok, if the ship feels unsafe I will hole myself up in my suite and have my meals delivered. 

 

I’ve watched Covid since it started being mentioned in news reports in January as s small outbreak in Wuhan, I quietly stocked up and prepped and tried to warn friends and family who shook it off as something small. I watched and waited, got pretty scared and then when we locked down in March i was pretty resigned to it. 

 

Now I am trying to use it to any small advantage I can get, because I certainly wouldn’t have been able to afford an Oceania cruise Southampton - Southampton normally. 

 

It really all comes down to pot odds - is the outlay worth the risk. Things are changing so quickly with this virus that potentially yes, by May the pot odds will be right. 

 

 

[Aloha 1]

16 hours ago, Petoonya said:

I might be wrong here and correct me if so. But had they removed the first two, they'd still be stuck quarantining the rest. And finding hotel space, and the willingness lacking, there may have been no alternative to keep them on the ship. COVID tests would do no good as early exposure can test negative. Not only do you have passengers but also crew. Maybe governments could have stepped in faster and brought the folks back home sooner to quarantine but there was not as much known about the virus as now and perhaps even more fear.

Again anyone correct me if I'm wrong.

 

Not to rehash the whole Princess scenario but by removing the first two ill passengers, the odds are the virus would not have spread among the rest. The quarantine would have lasted 2 weeks and the ship would have left Yokohama, IMHO.

[Paulchili]

5 hours ago, ToxM said:

t really all comes down to pot odds - is the outlay worth the risk. Things are changing so quickly with this virus that potentially yes, by May the pot odds will be right. 

 

Go for it unless things look really bad in May.

[ToxM]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

Go for it unless things look really bad in May.

Agreed, and another way I am thinking of it that 25% is a good return on my money if it does get cancelled. 

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, Aloha 1 said:

 

Not to rehash the whole Princess scenario but by removing the first two ill passengers, the odds are the virus would not have spread among the rest. The quarantine would have lasted 2 weeks and the ship would have left Yokohama, IMHO.

There was an ill passenger who previously disembarked in Hong Kong. It was already too late when the ship arrived in Yokohama, particularly since Princess didn't react to the information about the Hong Kong passenger for almost two days after they were informed and they did not take adequate action to minimize the spread of the virus thereafter.

[cruisemom42]

2 hours ago, Aloha 1 said:

 

Not to rehash the whole Princess scenario but by removing the first two ill passengers, the odds are the virus would not have spread among the rest. The quarantine would have lasted 2 weeks and the ship would have left Yokohama, IMHO.

 

But those two passengers would inevitably have already infected others. So you remove the first two but anyone they had already infected would still be on board -- and the quarantine was not strict enough to prevent further transmissions. 

[Hawaiidan]

21 hours ago, Paulchili said:

Where do you see that - I want to see it too (maybe) 😀

been on Tv and Radio discussions    ABC, KFI KGO.  lots of conversation out there ....  All you have to do is listen to others, and in many cases look  even in your  in your own block....   its a melange of different takes....  some funny reactions......it is in much of the medias selfish best interest  to keep the fear factor front and center....   

I have been for the past 14 days traveling through 7  states enjoying sit in dining, cheap gas and empty hotels and numerous national parks...    In none of the places were there any fear or problem  with viruses or any other problems.     99% of people are not obsessed as California..... and doing just fine....  They talked and I listened....People are pretty rational and practical .......and I learned    Living in fear is no life at all. live your life the sky  is not all falling

Edited June 14, 2020 by Hawaiidan

[Hawaiidan]

20 hours ago, njhorseman said:

Earlier this week someone from the WHO claimed that asymptomatic spread was "very rare" but very walked that back almost immediately as it it drew sharp rebukes from other experts.

 

It's more than "some", it's almost everyone...and I'll go with the overwhelming majority vote of the scientists. I think they know more than either of us....and that's how I make up my mind...examination of the best scientific evidence available at the time I'm making my decision. 

Remember  the overwhelming opinions of "scientists" predicted we would be in an Ice age 20 years ago and  that global warming would flood NY and Miami  5 years ago..... and Y2K  would destroy all our tech.....   Non scientists thought better and....what do you know   things are fine.      

[Georgia_Peaches]

Just now, Hawaiidan said:

Remember  the overwhelming opinions of "scientists" predicted we would be in an Ice age 20 years ago and  that global warming would flood NY and Miami  5 years ago..... and Y2K  would destroy all our tech.....   Non scientists thought better and....what do you know   things are fine.      

I only remember Y2K....those others were a thing?