When will things start back up?

[Paulchili]

16 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

@jwindham

Well, just looked at what I've got booked too and the whole thing is waitlist. April 4. It had several categories open a few days ago. Also coincides with the list. However it may well be as you say- adjusting how many get on the ship. I am concerned about husband who is not in the greatest health, and even if a vaccine by then who knows when they'll be giving to old people like us. Not essential. Sadly thinking about cancelling.

 

Interesting that April 4 is waitlist and cruise immediately following April 22, is wide open. Also coincides with the list.

Cancel now and if it sails you should have no trouble re-booking.

I am thinking that they will delay future sailings more likely than move them up - just a guess.

[KS&JW]

47 minutes ago, Petoonya said:

Sadly thinking about cancelling.

 

Interesting that April 4 is waitlist and cruise immediately following April 22, is wide open. Also coincides with the list.

 

I am not trying to encourage you to not cancel, but you seem like you feel better if you have something planned.  Wait a month, we will know more in a month.  

[LHT28]

46 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

Cancel now and if it sails you should have no trouble re-booking.

I am thinking that they will delay future sailings more likely than move them up - just a guess.

what happens  if they restrict the number of pax on the sailing  then there may not be any cabins available later

Truly a dilemma

[basor]

On 6/16/2020 at 11:24 AM, ORV said:

You're giving people too much credit. Look around, where I live probably less than 10 % of the people are wearing masks. Of course it is a political thing, and we're an extremely red state. 

I live in an extremely blue state and find the same percentage in and around the Portland Metro area and much lower in the remainder of the state.....just spent 2 days in Eugene and most of the time I was the only one wearing a mask outside employees that had to.

[Petoonya]

16 minutes ago, basor said:

I live in an extremely blue state and find the same percentage in and around the Portland Metro area and much lower in the remainder of the state.....just spent 2 days in Eugene and most of the time I was the only one wearing a mask outside employees that had to.

It's about 75% wearing here on the coast, 25% not. We have a more mixed population than Portland metro. Headed down to Bandon/Port Orford area for a few days and it'll be interesting to see what the southern coast is doing. For as blue as Eugene is, Oregon's Berkeley, I'm really surprised. Corvallis 90% wear.

[cayman09]

Interesting that the three cruises prior to the April 4th Regatta sailing, all 10 day Papeete to Papeete cruises, each have 2-3 categories listed Available. All other categories are waitlisted.

[cayman09]

Interesting that the three cruises prior to the April 4th Regatta sailing, all 10 day Papeete to Papeete cruises, each have 2-3 categories listed Available. All other categories are waitlisted.

2 hours ago, Petoonya said:

@jwindham

Well, just looked at what I've got booked too and the whole thing is waitlist. April 4. It had several categories open a few days ago. Also coincides with the list. However it may well be as you say- adjusting how many get on the ship. I am concerned about husband who is not in the greatest health, and even if a vaccine by then who knows when they'll be giving to old people like us. Not essential. Sadly thinking about cancelling.

 

Interesting that April 4 is waitlist and cruise immediately following April 22, is wide open. Also coincides with the list.

 

[pinotlover]

April 4 is before the listed Regatta start date of April 23. Doubt those cruises will happen. 
 

My Sirena Cruise just waitlisted in all but a couple categories. My cruise is a month after the listed start date. 

[clo]

3 hours ago, basor said:

I live in an extremely blue state and find the same percentage in and around the Portland Metro area and much lower in the remainder of the state.....just spent 2 days in Eugene and most of the time I was the only one wearing a mask outside employees that had to.

We went to a Reno casino for lunch and a little "donation to the local economy" as we call it. In my estimation more than 90% were not wearing masks and got really obnoxious if asked about it. As soon as I got home I sent an email to our governor suggesting that he close down the casinos. Again. We were shocked as the numbers are the reverse in groceries. In retrospect it makes me wonder if cruisers may be more like those in casinos.

[Petoonya]

4 hours ago, KS&JW said:

 

I am not trying to encourage you to not cancel, but you seem like you feel better if you have something planned.  Wait a month, we will know more in a month.  

Thanks so much. I'll wait and see how dh is doing week by week and take it from there.

I'm a very fortunate woman. Dh's brother is going to stay with him and I'm off to Tahiti on Windstar with sister a few months after that. Maybe, depending on you-know-what. If the sister-cruise doesn't happen also holding space for later in 2021, and who knows- maybe I can bring dh then. Lots of maybes for all of us.

I've got much to be grateful for.

[GICNJC]

Yesterday our Dec 13 to 20 Rivera cabins were available or guaranteed.   Today wait listed with two categories listed as available.   Based on past history this cruise has a 90 to 100% of being cancelled and payment is not due to early  Sept.  Looking forward to 125% FCC.

[KirkNC]

22 minutes ago, GICNJC said:

Yesterday our Dec 13 to 20 Rivera cabins were available or guaranteed.   Today wait listed with two categories listed as available.   Based on past history this cruise has a 90 to 100% of being cancelled and payment is not due to early  Sept.  Looking forward to 125% FCC.

Same with our two legs on Insignia in Dec, they have the dreaded waitlist for all but one or two categories.  Final payment is due in early July.

[Queen of DaNile]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

Same with our two legs on Insignia in Dec, they have the dreaded waitlist for all but one or two categories.  Final payment is due in early July.

Same thing on a local November cruise we were looking at to replace the Amazon one we cancelled before final payment. We cancelled before risking tying up that much cash in a FCC. Scary times.

[bitob]

I would not believe ANYTHING on the website regarding waitlists, gtys etc.    It is unverified.  If you read other boards, most of the cruise line information regarding bookings is misleading.

 

All we can do is guess.  I suspect even the cruise lines do not know when their ships will sail again.  We do know that cash flow is a huge problem and that making preparations to sail in view of the pandemic is a challenge.

 

I tend to be an optimist but I see nothing that persuades me that there will be any cruises in 2020.  Crystal just announced some bargain basement priced Caribbean cruises Sept  Oct. The prices are low because that had to revamp itineraries and had no bookings at all for the new itineraries.  Crystal regulars are booking.  I was tempted even though the Caribbean holds no appeal for us.  I don't see how anyone can be sure those cruises will go forward.

[clo]

9 minutes ago, bitob said:

 I was tempted even though the Caribbean holds no appeal for us. 

Are you like this when shopping in general? I'd go broke if I bought things that "holds no appeal" for me.

[bitob]

With Crystal just staying on board is a great experience.  I would just stay on board and be in Crystal heaven.

I'd take a 47 day all sea day cruise on Crystal if offered.

 

I think most people who love to cruise (especially on crystal) understand that when you have no other choices, ANY itinerary is better than no cruise at all.  The folks who are booking these cruises are the victims of cancelled cruises to far more exotic places.  They just want to get back on board a Crystal ship.  I get it.

 

 

Edited June 20, 2020 by bitob

[the more ports the better]

We will most likely have a vaccine in the fall.  I know many do not want to believe that there is a vaccine in production but this article (CNN Business) is several weeks old and much more positive news has come out since then.  Why the progress is not front page news every day, I do not know.  THIS is the most important news story out there.

 

The US and UK will have 400 million doses ready to go as soon as it is approved which is projected for the fall, with enough doses for everyone in the entirety of both countries being vaccinated by the end of the year.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/investing/astrazeneca-vaccine-coronavirus/index.html

 

Big data and AI are game changers in every industry including pharma and it speeds everything up by enormous magnitudes.  The fact that there was no vaccine for a corona virus in the past has zero bearing with today’s tech.  Physicists and computer scientists are figuring out the problem as much as biochemists and microbiologists.  Five years ago, we didn’t have a rocket launch people into space then return home and perfectly land to fly again later.  Why is this any different?

 

Give our scientific community some credit.  With AI, machine learning, big data and neural networks we can now routinely solve previously unsolvable problems at lightning speed.  Pharma is no exception.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, the more ports the better said:

We will most likely have a vaccine in the fall.  I know many do not want to believe that there is a vaccine in production but this article (CNN Business) is several weeks old and much more positive news has come out since then.  Why the progress is not front page news every day, I do not know.  THIS is the most important news story out there.

 

The US and UK will have 400 million doses ready to go as soon as it is approved which is projected for the fall, with enough doses for everyone in the entirety of both countries being vaccinated by the end of the year.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/05/investing/astrazeneca-vaccine-coronavirus/index.html

 

Big data and AI are game changers in every industry including pharma and it speeds everything up by enormous magnitudes.  The fact that there was no vaccine for a corona virus in the past has zero bearing with today’s tech.  Physicists and computer scientists are figuring out the problem as much as biochemists and microbiologists.  Five years ago, we didn’t have a rocket launch people into space then return home and perfectly land to fly again later.  Why is this any different?

 

Give our scientific community some credit.  With AI, machine learning, big data and neural networks we can now routinely solve previously unsolvable problems at lightning speed.  Pharma is no exception.

In testimony before Congress yesterday, Dr. Fauci said:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dr-fauci-is-cautiously-optimistic-there-will-be-a-covid-19-vaccine-by-the-end-of-2020-or-in-early-2021-2020-06-23

 

"Dr. Anthony Fauci said Tuesday he is cautiously optimistic there will be a COVID-19 vaccine by the end of the year or early 2021"

 

So our country's leading expert on this subject is quite a bit less certain about the availability of a vaccine than you are in your statement"We will most likely have a vaccine in the fall". 

 

By the way, one of the key reasons a vaccine might be available more quickly than normal is not so much science as it is the fact that the US and other governments have spent billions to support the research and to order vaccines in advance of approval. By getting this cash infusion the pharmaceutical companies doing the research and development are able to produce the vaccine before it's been fully tested and approved. Normally large scale production would not start until the companies were certain it would be receiving approval. By buying the vaccines in advance the US and other governments have taken the financial risk from the pharmaceutical companies and placed it on their taxpayers instead. if it turns out that a vaccine is not approved it will just be thrown away and you and I will be left footing the bill. By the way, I don't object to that, I'm merely explaining one of the key reasons the development and production process can proceed far more quickly than normal.

Edited June 24, 2020 by njhorseman

[the more ports the better]

Fauci is a pragmatic guy, if he says cautiously optimistic, that’s fantastic.

 

AI is the key driver in speedy virus production regardless of who is paying for it.

 

My company (AI in defense and nuclear) has received hundreds of grants.gov notifications from NIH for AI help with COVID research.  Thousands of people in my field have dropped what they were doing to help and none of us were lacking for work.  We are scientists, not political activists.  We roll up our sleeves and solve problems which is what our AI community is doing here.  Don’t dimish the effort many brilliant people are making by saying it is all about the government paying for it.  The NIH would be saying we will have a vaccine in 24 to 36 month without AI, if even that.

[njhorseman]

3 hours ago, the more ports the better said:

Fauci is a pragmatic guy, if he says cautiously optimistic, that’s fantastic.

 

AI is the key driver in speedy virus production regardless of who is paying for it.

 

My company (AI in defense and nuclear) has received hundreds of grants.gov notifications from NIH for AI help with COVID research.  Thousands of people in my field have dropped what they were doing to help and none of us were lacking for work.  We are scientists, not political activists.  We roll up our sleeves and solve problems which is what our AI community is doing here.  Don’t dimish the effort many brilliant people are making by saying it is all about the government paying for it.  The NIH would be saying we will have a vaccine in 24 to 36 month without AI, if even that.

 

Given that 90% of vaccines that make it to the human trail phases never make it to market means the advance production of actual vaccines before they have even gone through all the testing phases, much less received government approval for use is all about the governments paying for it in advance. The pharmaceutical companies would be waiting until they were reasonably certain of success before going into production, and by doing so the actual availability of the vaccine would be many months further down the road. 

 

You've said your company is also a recipient of government money to fund its work as part of the vaccine development process . Would you be doing all that work without that funding?  After all you said that thousands have dropped what they were doing. Was that going to happen without the government money that was pumped in?

 

You obviously missed the part of my post that said "I don't object to that" in reference to the government financial support for the development of a  vaccine, but it would be nice if you gave an honest acknowledgement of how key that support is for the speedy development, production and distribution of a vaccine.  You seem to acknowledge it with regard to AI work when you state "The NIH would be saying we will have a vaccine in 24 to 36 month without AI, if even that" but then dismiss it when I point out that it's key to hundreds of millions of doses of vaccine being produced before human trials are completed, much less government approval for use having been received.

Edited June 24, 2020 by njhorseman

[drkitkat123]

7 hours ago, the more ports the better said:

Fauci is a pragmatic guy, if he says cautiously optimistic, that’s fantastic.

 

AI is the key driver in speedy virus production regardless of who is paying for it.

 

My company (AI in defense and nuclear) has received hundreds of grants.gov notifications from NIH for AI help with COVID research.  Thousands of people in my field have dropped what they were doing to help and none of us were lacking for work.  We are scientists, not political activists.  We roll up our sleeves and solve problems which is what our AI community is doing here.  Don’t dimish the effort many brilliant people are making by saying it is all about the government paying for it.  The NIH would be saying we will have a vaccine in 24 to 36 month without AI, if even that.

Look,  I too am involved in AI and big data in my medical pathology company trying to diagnose skin cancers and all I can say that it is a lot harder than people think when they say AI and big data is going to solve this or that. Just look at the disaster that is/was IBM Watson health.

 

I do have hope that the vaccine will be developed sooner than later, but as they say, hope is not a strategy. 

 

I am interested in what you are saying but your comments to me are vague. When you say that AI and big data will solve this sooner than you think can you give me/us specific examples of how this will occur?

[drkitkat123]

5 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

Look,  I too am involved in AI and big data in my medical pathology company trying to diagnose skin cancers and all I can say that it is a lot harder than people think when they say AI and big data is going to solve this or that. Just look at the disaster that is/was IBM Watson health.

 

I do have hope that the vaccine will be developed sooner than later, but as they say, hope is not a strategy. 

 

I am interested in what you are saying but your comments to me are vague. When you say that AI and big data will solve this sooner than you think can you give me/us specific examples of how this will occur?

to me comments that we will solve this sooner than later because:

1. AI and big data will solve it
2. The government is throwing so much money at it
3. The best and brightest minds are working on it

do not furnish me with much confidence

 

[the more ports the better]

Funny, it gives me a lot of confidence but I wholeheartedly believe that there are very few problems that cannot be solved with hard work, great intelligence, and perseverance. 
 

Here are some of the AI projects.  The Northwestern University study results are typical.... 314 days with human predictive model, 5 min with AI model.

 

https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/05/ai-tool-speeds-up-search-for-covid-19-treatments-and-vaccines/

 

here are a few more But I can go on and on citing them, gotta love google....

 

https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-ai-can-help-find-scientists-find-a-covid-19-vaccine/

 

https://venturebeat.com/2020/05/05/epitopes-world-taps-ai-to-predict-covid-19-vaccine-success/ 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/can-artificial-intelligence-help-us-design-vaccines/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-ai-tool-covid-treatments-vaccines.html

 

https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20200511/artificial-intelligence-transforms-search-for-covid19-vaccines-cure

 

 

 

[drkitkat123]

12 minutes ago, the more ports the better said:

Funny, it gives me a lot of confidence but I wholeheartedly believe that there are very few problems that cannot be solved with hard work, great intelligence, and perseverance. 
 

Here are some of the AI projects.  The Northwestern University study results are typical.... 314 days with human predictive model, 5 min with AI model.

 

https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/05/ai-tool-speeds-up-search-for-covid-19-treatments-and-vaccines/

 

here are a few more But I can go on and on citing them, gotta love google....

 

https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-ai-can-help-find-scientists-find-a-covid-19-vaccine/

 

https://venturebeat.com/2020/05/05/epitopes-world-taps-ai-to-predict-covid-19-vaccine-success/ 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/can-artificial-intelligence-help-us-design-vaccines/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-ai-tool-covid-treatments-vaccines.html

 

https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20200511/artificial-intelligence-transforms-search-for-covid19-vaccines-cure

 

 

 

I do  not think we disagree with each other, just the time frame. I also believe that with hard work, intelligence etc few problems can not be solved, just that this will take longer than one thinks with COVID. Ai and big data can help but just as not as quick as one thinks.

 

Computers can be ramped up to go faster and quicker to analyse this stuff at the beginning but humans are biological systems which have a certain speed which really can not be ramped up and this will be the rate limiting step

 

 

Has a quick look at a few of your links (thanks).

 

for example the first one  "The machine model is just as accurate as prediction markets, researchers said, and it can scale up to review a larger number of papers in a fraction of the time – minutes instead of months." This is sort of the IBM watson health literature review approach which has been shown to have no clinical benefit.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[the more ports the better]

Watson was a disaster.  IBM went down the wrong path from the beginning and they were too bureaucratic to scrap it and start over.  Big tech companies have been more successful with AI across the board as they are not afraid to scrap things and move out of the corporate structure box.
 

Here is a great IEEE article on the Watson progression.  You may enjoy it.  https://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/diagnostics/how-ibm-watson-overpromised-and-underdelivered-on-ai-health-care
 

Big data is excellent for analysis.  Billions of data points can be analyzed at lightning speed.  The more variables the more complicated the algorithm.  IBM was great with data points but struggles with variables which is critical to medicine.  Interesting discussion for cruise critic.