When will things start back up?

[the more ports the better]

But.... I booked two sailings while going back and forth with the AI discussion!

[Paulchili]

I too believe that today’s technology and lots of investment will solve the problem at some point.

Look at the Enigma that was thought to be unbreakable yet it was broken. Just think how far we have come in AI and computer technology, medical science  since then.

[njhorseman]

42 minutes ago, the more ports the better said:

Funny, it gives me a lot of confidence but I wholeheartedly believe that there are very few problems that cannot be solved with hard work, great intelligence, and perseverance. 
 

Here are some of the AI projects.  The Northwestern University study results are typical.... 314 days with human predictive model, 5 min with AI model.

 

https://news.northwestern.edu/stories/2020/05/ai-tool-speeds-up-search-for-covid-19-treatments-and-vaccines/

 

here are a few more But I can go on and on citing them, gotta love google....

 

https://www.wired.com/story/opinion-ai-can-help-find-scientists-find-a-covid-19-vaccine/

 

https://venturebeat.com/2020/05/05/epitopes-world-taps-ai-to-predict-covid-19-vaccine-success/ 

 

https://www.brookings.edu/techstream/can-artificial-intelligence-help-us-design-vaccines/

https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-05-ai-tool-covid-treatments-vaccines.html

 

https://www.healio.com/news/primary-care/20200511/artificial-intelligence-transforms-search-for-covid19-vaccines-cure

 

 

 

Half of the articles on your list are about the same work at Northwestern University.  Repeating the same thing three times doesn't make the value of the work triple what it actually is.

[the more ports the better]

There is a genius response.  Imagine where we all would be if we only read one article on every study.  Hmmmm

[njhorseman]

19 minutes ago, the more ports the better said:

There is a genius response.  Imagine where we all would be if we only read one article on every study.  Hmmmm

Three articles saying essentially the same thing add nothing to what could have been accomplished by citing a single article. By citing multiple essentially identical articles it looks to someone who just counts the number of links rather than actually reading the articles as there's a lot more going on than there actually is.  It's similar to when  almost every newspaper in the country runs the same Associated Press release. It's not necessary or useful in any way to read it repeatedly just because it's repeated in every newspaper.

[the more ports the better]

Ok, if you say so

[drkitkat123]

On 6/25/2020 at 10:09 AM, the more ports the better said:

Watson was a disaster.  IBM went down the wrong path from the beginning and they were too bureaucratic to scrap it and start over.  Big tech companies have been more successful with AI across the board as they are not afraid to scrap things and move out of the corporate structure box.
 

Here is a great IEEE article on the Watson progression.  You may enjoy it.  https://spectrum.ieee.org/biomedical/diagnostics/how-ibm-watson-overpromised-and-underdelivered-on-ai-health-care
 

Big data is excellent for analysis.  Billions of data points can be analyzed at lightning speed.  The more variables the more complicated the algorithm.  IBM was great with data points but struggles with variables which is critical to medicine.  Interesting discussion for cruise critic.

 

 

 

Just thinking about this more. How do you compare the  unsuccessful quest for an HIV vaccine in terms of (aggregate over the years) brightest minds, quantity of money and big data/AI being thrown at it, with the quest for the Covid vaccine?

[Paulchili]

41 minutes ago, drkitkat123 said:

Just thinking about this more. How do you compare the  unsuccessful quest for an HIV vaccine in terms of (aggregate over the years) brightest minds, quantity of money and big data/AI being thrown at it, with the quest for the Covid vaccine?

It doesn't have to be a vaccine.

HIV is being treated VERY successfully with meds. I would settle for meds for COVID.

In other words - HIV has been solved and might be cured one day.

[drkitkat123]

3 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

It doesn't have to be a vaccine.

HIV is being treated VERY successfully with meds. I would settle for meds for COVID.

In other words - HIV has been solved and might be cured one day.

agreed but that still took a very long time with HIV

[clo]

25 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

It doesn't have to be a vaccine.

HIV is being treated VERY successfully with meds. I would settle for meds for COVID.

In other words - HIV has been solved and might be cured one day.

I hear ya and having lived in SF for many years and seeing up close its devastation I'm so thankful. But, to my knowledge, you can't get HIV from someone coughing/sneezing/etc. so I see the need for a COVID vaccine more critical.

[pinotlover]

I appears that  Oceania has waitlisted out all cruises, on all ships, for the remainder of the year. A few show perhaps one category open, most none.

Appears that 2020 is now a sank ship. I made PIF only a cruise just last week! 😢

Edited June 30, 2020 by pinotlover

[Paulchili]

16 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I appears that  Oceania has waitlisted out all cruises, on all ships, for the remainder of the year. A few show perhaps one category open, most none.

Appears that 2020 is now a sank ship. I made PIF only a cruise just last week! 😢

Weren't you offering me a bet about 2020 cruises a while ago? 🙂

[Flatbush Flyer]

21 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I appears that  Oceania has waitlisted out all cruises, on all ships, for the remainder of the year. A few show perhaps one category open, most none.

Appears that 2020 is now a sank ship. I made PIF only a cruise just last week! 😢

I'd like to think that any "waitlisting" of cabins for the last quarter of 2020 (note that some of the larger suites on numerous cruises in November/December 2020 still show availability) are meant to achieve the new lower occupancy targets.

[Paulchili]

2 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

I'd like to think that any "waitlisting" of cabins for the last quarter of 2020 (note that some of the larger suites on numerous cruises in November/December 2020 still show availability) are meant to achieve the new lower occupancy targets.

If that is the case, should they not make an announcement of some kind about this?

It would be helpful to know. 

[pinotlover]

Paul; Yes I did! 
 

I actually thought they would do the Christmas sailings. That’s a lot of money being left on the table by them, especially since PIF date for those cruises hasn’t arrived yet. 
 

All those people should be trying to cancel and get their deposits back. I would not advise anyone giving Oceania a cent now, until they actually start back sailing. 

2 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

I'd like to think that any "waitlisting" of cabins for the last quarter of 2020 (note that some of the larger suites on numerous cruises in November/December 2020 still show availability) are meant to achieve the new lower occupancy targets.

All that changed today. Top suites now all waitlists.

[Flatbush Flyer]

Just now, Paulchili said:

If that is the case, should they not make an announcement of some kind about this?

It would be helpful to know. 

Given the nature of daily changes in international regulations beyond O's control, I can understand any decision to remain somewhat vague.

[Flatbush Flyer]

20 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Paul; Yes I did! 
 

I actually thought they would do the Christmas sailings. That’s a lot of money being left on the table by them, especially since PIF date for those cruises hasn’t arrived yet. 
 

All those people should be trying to cancel and get their deposits back. I would not advise anyone giving Oceania a cent now, until they actually start back sailing. 

All that changed today. Top suites now all waitlists.

Just checked my two Nautica segments for November: There is cabin availability in penthouses on both segments. All else is waitlisted.

6/30/20 at 10:50AM PDT

 

PS: took a second random look a Riviera Miami-Miami cruise in December. It has penthouse availability as well.

 

in looking at other reasons for the waitlisting (beyond controlling new lower occupancy), remember all the folks who got the earliest FCCs from many February/March cruises (modified/cancelled), which required book by/sail by deadlines of 12/31/20. Those folks, including us, had to pick something.

Edited June 30, 2020 by Flatbush Flyer

[pinotlover]

8 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Just checked my two Nautica segments for November: There is cabin availability in penthouses on both segments. All else is waitlisted.

6/30/20 at 10:50AM PDT

 

PS: took a second random look a Riviera Miami-Miami cruise in December. It has penthouse availability as well.

 

in looking King at other reasons for the waitlisting (beyond controlling new lower occupancy, remember all the folks who got the earliest FCCs from many February/March cruises (modified/cancelled), which required book by/sail by deadlines of 12/31/20. Those folks, including us, had to pick something.

Yes, on some of the cruises, they left availability in one category. I’m hoping you are correct. If Jame’s 400 passengers for an R ship was correct, with all the FCC out there, the ships could fill easily.

[ORV]

32 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

I would not advise anyone giving Oceania a cent now, until they actually start back sailing. 

This is what I've been saying for months. Produce an actual product and I'll buy it. 

[Paulchili]

3 minutes ago, ORV said:

This is what I've been saying for months. Produce an actual product and I'll buy it. 

I'll go 1 step further - make sure (prove it) that it's safe to travel.

[drkitkat123]

2 hours ago, Paulchili said:

Weren't you offering me a bet about 2020 cruises a while ago? 🙂

I think that was me?

[deadzone1003]

8 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I appears that  Oceania has waitlisted out all cruises, on all ships, for the remainder of the year. A few show perhaps one category open, most none.

Appears that 2020 is now a sank ship. I made PIF only a cruise just last week! 😢

It may be, but the Dec. 20 sailing on the Riviera, a 14 day Caribbean cruise with holiday rates, still has 12 of 17 categories still available.  I think Oceania is still hoping they can sail in 2020.  There may be more Oceania regulars who are hoping they can sail in 2020.  There can't be that many people who have FCC to use up in 2020 and are forced to book something in 2020 even if they may not want to sail like we find ourselves.

[GeorgesGal]

We are on the Riviera 12-3 17 day cruise and the only availability at this time is a PH2 (which we have already booked with a 150% FCC and $$$ from cancelled 4-08 Sirena B3 cat).  I'm hoping that O  waitlisted almost all categories to keep a lower occupancy rate rather than getting ready to cancel!

 

Only time will tell, but I will give them my small balance due on 7-6 to keep my investment alive.

 

On the bright side, though, if O cancels this cruise look at the money we have saved this year, since we normally have two O cruises per year.  I know, we gave them the money already, but only enough for one cruise, not two, so we are still ahead of the game.

[deadzone1003]

2 hours ago, GeorgesGal said:

We are on the Riviera 12-3 17 day cruise and the only availability at this time is a PH2 (which we have already booked with a 150% FCC and $$$ from cancelled 4-08 Sirena B3 cat).  I'm hoping that O  waitlisted almost all categories to keep a lower occupancy rate rather than getting ready to cancel!

 

Only time will tell, but I will give them my small balance due on 7-6 to keep my investment alive.

 

On the bright side, though, if O cancels this cruise look at the money we have saved this year, since we normally have two O cruises per year.  I know, we gave them the money already, but only enough for one cruise, not two, so we are still ahead of the game.

We were on the Cape Town to Singapore cruise early this year.  It was a 30 day cruise where we had enough to whet our appetite for the year.  The Dec. 3rd cruise is the FCC that we have to use by year-end.  It is quite logical to assume that our cruise will be at a limited occupancy rate, probably 50-60%, because within a couple of days, it went from a virutally empty ship to one that was almost all waitlisted.  I can see where some people who were in recent canceled cruise could have booked themselves onto an Oct-Nov-Dec cruise of this year, but not enough to waitlisted virtually every cruise.  We have a B3 with extended balcony so it will not be necessary to use Lido deck.  In all, I expect our cruise to be canceled though I am not sure Oceania will add anything to our FCC.    

[GeorgesGal]

23 hours ago, deadzone1003 said:

We were on the Cape Town to Singapore cruise early this year.  It was a 30 day cruise where we had enough to whet our appetite for the year.  The Dec. 3rd cruise is the FCC that we have to use by year-end.  It is quite logical to assume that our cruise will be at a limited occupancy rate, probably 50-60%, because within a couple of days, it went from a virutally empty ship to one that was almost all waitlisted.  I can see where some people who were in recent canceled cruise could have booked themselves onto an Oct-Nov-Dec cruise of this year, but not enough to waitlisted virtually every cruise.  We have a B3 with extended balcony so it will not be necessary to use Lido deck.  In all, I expect our cruise to be canceled though I am not sure Oceania will add anything to our FCC.    

My sister and I are in 7128 on deck 7 with the extended balcony as well.  Hopefully, we will sail as planned!  

signed, The Eternal Optimist, Donna