When will things start back up?

[GeorgesGal]

On 6/17/2020 at 10:04 AM, Fam_Cruise said:

So much for Insignia re-launching on September 26:

We have extended the suspension of voyages on Regatta, Nautica, Sirena, Marina and Riviera to include those embarking between August 1 and September 30, 2020. Additionally on the Insignia, we’ve extended the suspension to include voyages embarking between October 1 and October 26, 2020.

From the table attached to this post (#95) does anyone know what the code 'FP' stands for next to Marina and Riviera?

[Fam_Cruise]

19 minutes ago, GeorgesGal said:

From the table attached to this post (#95) does anyone know what the code 'FP' stands for next to Marina and Riviera?

I would guess it means fixed prop vs azipod.

[RJB]

On 6/30/2020 at 4:02 PM, Paulchili said:

I'll go 1 step further - make sure (prove it) that it's safe to travel.

No way that can be done at this time.  First step is getting a vaccine that works on most of us. 

[pinotlover]

40 minutes ago, RJB said:

No way that can be done at this time.  First step is getting a vaccine that works on most of us. 

Actually a vaccine wouldn’t be required. Develop a reliable test , with fast results, to show if one is currently infected or not. The cruise lines could make people show up for Day 0, where they are tested and quarantined in a hotel. Have results by the next day, Day 1. If currently positive, you don’t get on the ship.

 

We are not far away from countries requiring medical forms, with shot records, to travel into their countries. I’ve read where the EU is already discussing it. It will be required at flight check in and again at immigrations. With the new technologies, I believe the days of sick, and particularly fevered regardless of cause, passengers getting on a international flight are numbered.

 

It also sounds as if some of those countries are going to require visitors to prepay for National health insurance before they are allowed in. No more footing the bill for sick tourists.

Edited July 6, 2020 by pinotlover

[Sea42]

22 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

particularly fevered regardless of cause, passengers getting on a international flight are numbered.

This is probably not a very reliable way to determine who may be ill. People's temperatures vary. I always have a low temp right around 96. If I have a 99 temperature, for me that would indicate illness, for someone else that may be a normal temperature.

Edited July 6, 2020 by Sea42

[pinotlover]

6 minutes ago, Sea42 said:

This is probably not a very reliable way to determine who may be ill. People's temperatures vary. I always have a low temp right around 96. If I have a 99 temperature, for me that would indicate illness, for someone else that may be a normal temperature.

Absolutely nothing, a big fat zero 0, will ever be perfect! Demanding perfect, and allowing good to great to be the enemy of perfect, is not a good solution to anything. If they can identify and isolate 95% of the problem, that is a huge step forward while they work on the other 5%. Doing nothing until perfect is bad policy.

 

I believe they set the current scanners at 100.2 F.

[Sea42]

4 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Absolutely nothing, a big fat zero 0, will ever be perfect! Demanding perfect, and allowing good to great to be the enemy of perfect, is not a good solution to anything. If they can identify and isolate 95% of the problem, that is a huge step forward while they work on the other 5%. Doing nothing until perfect is bad policy.

 

I believe they set the current scanners at 100.2 F.

Agreed. There will never be a perfect system. There will never be (or ever has been) a guarantee that it is safe to travel. All we can do is take the precautions that provide the greatest probabilities of protection. But in the foreseeable future, screening is not going to bring about safe travel. It only takes one person...

I just keep reminding myself how much we're saving by not traveling this year and what fantastic future travel that extra money is going to allow!

[pinotlover]

Last week, in one of the science journals, there was a great article on the ongoing efforts to develop a Covid vaccine. The current process, with vaccine testing, is determining the proper dosage of vaccine to be effective. The industry has extensive knowledge on this based on developing common flu and other similar vaccines. The problem a couple of the companies, with promising Covid vaccines, were having is that while results were extremely promising with young or otherwise healthy test recipients, they were bad with the compromised recipients. For those with compromised immune systems , even small doses of the material risks the patient’s health. A lot of work still needs to be done.

 

However, what the article predicted was that the vaccine(s) would still be available by late Fall and would be effective for about 75% of the population. The others would have to wait until something else was developed for them. Many of those “ others” were seasoned citizens. The government was not going to withhold a vaccine(s) that was effective for that high percentage of the population!

 

This goes back to my earlier post on testing. If/when we develop effective testing and protocols, we could help some of those remaining 25% live a more normal life. We aren’t there yet, but hopefully soon.

[Paulchili]

3 hours ago, pinotlover said:

We are not far away from countries requiring medical forms, with shot records, to travel into their countries. I’ve read where the EU is already discussing it. It will be required at flight check in and again at immigrations. With the new technologies, I believe the days of sick, and particularly fevered regardless of cause, passengers getting on a international flight are numbered.

This is almost useless.

If the letter is even a day old it is irrelevant (unless you are talking about a COVID vaccine) - never mind the source of it.

The only thing that would work most reliably is on the spot testing if & when such a quick test is developed.

And this can be repeated during the cruise as passengers return from their shore excursions.

Then you'll have a ship w/o COVID passengers.

Edited July 6, 2020 by Paulchili

[pinotlover]

25 minutes ago, Paulchili said:

This is almost useless.

If the letter is even a day old it is irrelevant (unless you are talking about a COVID vaccine) - never mind the source of it.

The only thing that would work most reliably is on the spot testing if & when such a quick test is developed.

And this can be repeated during the cruise as passengers return from their shore excursions.

Then you'll have a ship w/o COVID passengers.

I was talking about a Covid vaccine. The article was predicting that if a vaccine is developed in the next 6-12 months, that the EU nations would require it for all visitors by 1/1/22 with no exceptions. Those that don’t or can’t get the vaccine wouldn’t get on the planes or ships to get them there.

 

Until the vaccine is developed and distributed, there we be no perfect. Even the vaccine will not be perfect because some will not be able to take it. The world will continue to advance until that vaccine comes along, and will not be shutdown because intermediary solutions don’t fit everyone’s description of perfect. The many intermediary steps taken will not be “ useless “, just steps to the final goal.

 

 

[clo]

8 hours ago, pinotlover said:

I was talking about a Covid vaccine. The article was predicting that if a vaccine is developed in the next 6-12 months, that the EU nations would require it for all visitors by 1/1/22 with no exceptions. Those that don’t or can’t get the vaccine wouldn’t get on the planes or ships to get them there.

 

Until the vaccine is developed and distributed, there we be no perfect. Even the vaccine will not be perfect because some will not be able to take it. The world will continue to advance until that vaccine comes along, and will not be shutdown because intermediary solutions don’t fit everyone’s description of perfect. The many intermediary steps taken will not be “ useless “, just steps to the final goal.

 

 

So it sounds like you think cruising is over until at least 2022. That would be my best guess.

[RJB]

10 hours ago, clo said:

So it sounds like you think cruising is over until at least 2022. That would be my best guess.

At the rate some things are going backwards it sure could be 2022.  Not too happy about that.  Hope the cruise lines can make it till then. 

[ORV]

13 hours ago, clo said:

So it sounds like you think cruising is over until at least 2022. That would be my best guess.

I don't think he was saying that at all. The companies probably can't last that long without revenue. 

Edited July 7, 2020 by ORV

[RJB]

5 hours ago, ORV said:

I don't think he was saying that at all. The companies probably can't last that long without revenue. 

Will be a problem unless there is a vaccine that works well.  I just read that Carnival is putting some sailings off until Feb.  None of the cruise lines really have a current plan to start up.  The virus is getting worse in a number of states so there is no way for ships to sail without being in danger. Have to hope for the best and plan for the worst. 

[ORV]

4 minutes ago, RJB said:

Will be a problem unless there is a vaccine that works well.  I just read that Carnival is putting some sailings off until Feb.  None of the cruise lines really have a current plan to start up.  The virus is getting worse in a number of states so there is no way for ships to sail without being in danger. Have to hope for the best and plan for the worst. 

I wouldn't think you would be worried, after all in 99% of the cases it's harmless. 

[RJB]

8 minutes ago, ORV said:

I wouldn't think you would be worried, after all in 99% of the cases it's harmless. 

But it is the 1% that can get you. 

[clo]

2 hours ago, RJB said:

The virus is getting worse in a number of states

Yeah, like 46.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

[basor]

2 hours ago, clo said:

Yeah, like 46.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/16/816707182/map-tracking-the-spread-of-the-coronavirus-in-the-u-s

Glad to live in one of the States keeping COVID down ......Go Oregon (must be our web feet and rain 🙂 )

[njhorseman]

4 minutes ago, basor said:

Glad to live in one of the States keeping COVID down ......Go Oregon (must be our web feet and rain 🙂 )

Oregon isn't doing well at all according to a couple of sites that gauge the spread of COVID-19 by modeling infection reproduction rates:

https://covidactnow.org/us/or?s=61890

https://rt.live/

 

For that matter the data presented in the NPR report you replied about also shows Oregon isn't doing all that well. average new cases per day have been rising steadily over the past month, increasing steadily in recent weeks from 128 per day three weeks ago to 273 per day this week.

 

 

[basor]

It is important to report all of the data not cherry pick what fits your narrative.....according to this Oregon has not been steadily increasing over the last few weeks.....let me know if you want more daily reports back farther...our confirmed cases is 3.7% of tested....it obviously goes up and down a bit but that is our most current percentage.  I think there are a lot of States that would love to have our numbers!

Date	URL
7/7/2020	Oregon reports 218 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 5 new deaths
7/6/2020	Oregon reports 168 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 0 new deaths
7/5/2020	Oregon reports 301 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 2 new deaths
7/4/2020	Oregon reports 303 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 4 new deaths
7/3/2020	Oregon reports 344 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 0 new deaths; provides Watch List data
7/2/2020	Oregon reports 375 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 1 new death
7/1/2020	Oregon reports 281 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 1 new death
6/30/2020	Oregon reports 181 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases 3 new deaths
6/30/2020	Evaluate before you celebrate to help stop the spread of COVID-19 this July 4th
6/29/2020	Oregon reports 146 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 2 new deaths

Edited July 8, 2020 by basor

[clo]

1 hour ago, basor said:

Glad to live in one of the States keeping COVID down ......Go Oregon (must be our web feet and rain 🙂 )

YAY! We have an airbnb booked at the end of the month at Nehalem . Our Seattle daughter and her family, who have been religiously walking the walk, will hopefully be able to join us. We love Oregon.

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, basor said:

It is important to report all of the data not cherry pick what fits your narrative.....according to this Oregon has not been steadily increasing over the last few weeks.....let me know if you want more daily reports back farther...our confirmed cases is 3.7% of tested....it obviously goes up and down a bit but that is our most current percentage.  I think there are a lot of States that would love to have our numbers!

Date	URL
7/7/2020	Oregon reports 218 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 5 new deaths
7/6/2020	Oregon reports 168 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 0 new deaths
7/5/2020	Oregon reports 301 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 2 new deaths
7/4/2020	Oregon reports 303 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 4 new deaths
7/3/2020	Oregon reports 344 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 0 new deaths; provides Watch List data
7/2/2020	Oregon reports 375 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 1 new death
7/1/2020	Oregon reports 281 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 1 new death
6/30/2020	Oregon reports 181 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases 3 new deaths
6/30/2020	Evaluate before you celebrate to help stop the spread of COVID-19 this July 4th
6/29/2020	Oregon reports 146 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 2 new deaths

No...your infection numbers are far worse than NJ's and we're worried about the turn we've taken recently...so much so that out governor put the brakes on the reopening process. 

 

I'm not cherry picking anything...I'm citing three data sources and two well-regarded effective reproduction rate models, all of which show Oregon to be heading in the wrong direction. The two reproduction rates have very similar results of 1.14 and 1.15 for Oregon, as opposed to 0.94 and 1.00 for NJ. NJ's reproduction rate is the 9th lowest in the US , Oregon's is 33rd, per rt.live ...so almost two thirds of the states have better (in other words, lower) reproduction rates than Oregon. 

 

Oregon has a positive test rate of 5.5% per covidactnow.org versus 1.5% for NJ. 

 

New Jersey has a bit over twice the population of Oregon,  but our average number of new cases per day in the past week is less than 25% higher than Oregon's. 

 

Further Oregon is conducting contact tracing on 44% of cases, versus 100% in NJ per covidactnow.org. Adequate contact tracing is considered a key measure to control the spread of COVID-19.

 

I'm not trying to make this into a war of NJ versus Oregon...my purpose is to show that you're misinterpreting or misunderstanding the numbers you're looking at. We're worried here, but our numbers are far better than yours, so maybe yours aren't as good as you think.

Edited July 8, 2020 by njhorseman

[basor]

New And Total Cases, By State And Territory

Data as of 4:33 a.m. on July 7, 2020. Daily heatmap as of 11:59 p.m. ET, July 6.

PERCENT CHANGE VS. PREVIOUS WEEK

• -100%
• -50%
• -5%
• +5%
• +50%
• +100%

 

AVG. NEW CASES/DAY

TOTALS SINCE JANUARY

STATE

3 weeks ago

2 weeks ago

Last week

This week

CASES

DEATHS

United States

21,749

28,325

39,767

49,344

2,938,473

130,303

New York

735

649

635

674

397,649

32,219

California

3,130

4,148

5,554

6,770

273,577

6,460

Florida

1,775

3,270

6,589

8,587

206,447

3,778

Texas

1,964

3,940

5,559

6,991

205,642

2,677

New Jersey

372

330

265

334

173,611

15,229

Illinois

657

601

748

772

147,865

7,026

Massachusetts

295

217

223

196

110,137

8,198

Arizona

1,309

2,536

2,849

3,844

101,455

1,829

Georgia

845

1,073

1,927

2,521

97,064

2,878

Pennsylvania

464

427

556

662

95,100

6,754

North Carolina

1,228

1,264

1,396

1,577

74,775

1,432

Michigan

140

267

324

435

73,267

6,221

Maryland

518

367

379

379

69,904

3,246

Louisiana

589

438

977

1,321

66,327

3,296

Virginia

519

511

532

559

66,102

1,853

Ohio

391

566

787

987

57,956

2,927

Tennessee

571

650

963

1,392

52,039

652

Indiana

401

315

371

471

48,524

2,698

Connecticut

163

78

83

88

46,976

4,338

South Carolina

654

898

1,283

1,677

46,380

827

Alabama

764

597

960

1,100

44,878

1,007

Minnesota

353

362

376

387

38,569

1,511

Washington

302

387

483

676

36,985

1,369

Colorado

159

201

258

249

34,240

1,691

Wisconsin

271

305

427

572

32,061

796

Iowa

296

295

386

416

31,764

725

Mississippi

290

361

605

670

31,257

1,114

Utah

327

471

537

544

25,469

190

Arkansas

454

452

596

571

24,253

292

Missouri

180

283

389

414

24,211

1,051

Nevada

214

316

624

716

22,909

537

Nebraska

152

159

154

143

20,046

283

Kentucky

167

170

215

258

17,152

593

Rhode Island

64

52

44

32

16,991

960

Kansas

111

158

254

347

16,638

285

Oklahoma

173

331

349

455

16,362

399

New Mexico

112

121

184

218

13,507

515

Delaware

53

69

79

131

12,293

512

District of Columbia

59

37

33

32

10,515

561

Oregon

128

180

200

273

10,395

215

Puerto Rico

121

96

98

191

8,585

155

Idaho

30

122

214

329

8,052

94

South Dakota

65

57

56

56

7,105

97

New Hampshire

38

30

29

22

5,914

382

North Dakota

32

30

32

44

3,849

80

West Virginia

23

33

45

82

3,442

95

Maine

32

23

35

29

3,423

109

Wyoming

17

22

31

32

1,675

20

Vermont

8

5

6

6

1,251

56

Montana

9

18

26

47

1,249

23

Alaska

14

14

20

37

1,162

16

Hawaii

9

11

12

19

1,030

19

Guam

1

5

4

7

301

5

Virgin Islands

0

1

1

4

112

6

Northern Marianas

0

0

0

0

31

2

American Samoa

0

0

0

0

0

0

[Petoonya]

2 hours ago, clo said:

YAY! We have an airbnb booked at the end of the month at Nehalem . Our Seattle daughter and her family, who have been religiously walking the walk, will hopefully be able to join us. We love Oregon.

 

Tillamook County,  is home to Nehalem, and doing beautifully with  5.7 cases per 10000 since testing began. 50 miles south is Lincoln County where I live, and it sucks by comparison. 71.7 per 10000 positive cases.. An outbreak at a seafood processing facility in Newport has been painful. I'm a retired RN and the 28 bed hospital is so overwhelmed I was asked to return to work. We're beginning to shun tourism again and considering closing beaches. We are the unclean.

 

Nehalem is lovely and a perfect choice. Mandatory masks, and no seafood processing. 😉 Have fun.

[njhorseman]

8 hours ago, basor said:

New And Total Cases, By State And Territory

What you posted proves my point. Do you see all the shades of orange on Oregon's graphic? Oranges and reds indicate high infection growth rates.