Record infection numbers in Florida

[atgood]

10 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

Even with Florida testing 52,000 a day their cases well surpass ours. Canada as a nation tested 33,000 people yesterday and only had 330 cases.

Do you know if the threshold of what is considered a positive test result is the same with Florida and Canada?

[Canadianmama3]

9 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

I’m not saying you are neither right or wrong. I’m just looking at a comparable as we are testing 20,000+ a day and exact same “grouping” in our province. We are having less than 200 positives a day.
 

Even with Florida testing 52,000 a day their cases well surpass ours. Canada as a nation tested 33,000 people yesterday and only had 330 cases. Yes, we also have 16 million more than Florida over much greater area but as a nation we are doing well.   Some people here are afraid in their bubble well collecting CERB (stay at home gov pandemic pay) but it is time to get out there while being cognitive of others. 
 

It’s almost like we live under a dome, or have a magical moat or something. 😉

See it’s the words some people are using that are really just contributing to all this conflict.  You put “some people are afraid in their bubble well collecting CERB”.  It’s like you are judging people for staying home and saying they are “afraid”.  When the truth is there are a lot of people who are “staying in their bubble” because either they have underlying health conditions or someone in their household does.  That doesn’t make them “afraid” it means they are just being cautious since they are the ones who would suffer the most. Why people feel the need to try and demean people who have a legitimate reason to be cautious is beyond me. 
 

 

[islandwannabee]

2 minutes ago, HBE4 said:

 

Stop straddling the fence and pick a side. Are you with the COVID shaming police or the COVID-is-a-hoax shaming police? 😄😉

 

 

 

That works out to be a 1% positive rate.  New York state is hovering around 1% as well - 0.5% for upstate and 1.5% for NYC.

 

Who would have thunk it a few weeks ago, New York is under a magical dome too. 😉

Thats because a lot of new Yorkers have come to Florida in the past 4 weeks, just in my Central Florida small community, there is an abundance of New York visitors and vacationers. So sure New York numbers go down and Florida's go up. 

[Canadianmama3]

8 minutes ago, atgood said:

Do you know if the threshold of what is considered a positive test result is the same with Florida and Canada?

What does this even mean? You are positive if they detect the virus.  If they do not you are negative. 

[Sunshine3601]

1 hour ago, atgood said:

Are Covid-19 tests accurate or not and how about anti-body tests?  
 

It seems I’ve read where they are, and then where aren’t.  Which is it?  

 

We cruised for 3 weeks in January and then left from FLL airport superbowl weekend (our lounge was packed and everyone was coughing - usual for that time of year).    Anyway several days after we got home we were both very sick and Covid was just starting to surface in US news.  

Two weeks ago I went for a anti-body test at Labcorp and was told by lab technician "these tests are about 50% accurate".

my results came back negative but who really knows. 

[molly361]

Today's news in Florida  YIKES

 

 

 

 

 

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Gov. Ron DeSantis said 260 workers at the Orlando International Airport have tested positive for the coronavirus after nearly 500 employees were tested.

 

Edited June 17, 2020 by molly361

[ONECRUISER]

2 hours ago, Canadianmama3 said:

Since this is a cruising forum, thinking about this is terms of cruising.  People should be concerned about the number of cases in the US even if it’s because of increased testing.  To go on a cruise you need to be able to stop at other countries. I’m thinking other countries will not want to have cruises with US passengers stopping at their ports, if the US has a high number of active cases.  Regardless of the reason behind the numbers.  
 

That’s why Canada has closed their ports and wants to keep the borders closed.  And the majority of Canadians support this.  I’m guessing many other countries, especially those with weaker health systems won’t want to take a chance of their citizens catching the virus from tourists.  
 

So regardless of why positive tests are going up, or how many are actually ending up in hospital.  It’s the perception of other counties that really matter for cruising.  Or else you could be stuck on a cruise to nowhere. 

Yes, both agree, "US and Canada have agreed to extend their agreement to keep their border closed to non-essential travel to July 21 during the coronavirus pandemic"

[Milwaukee Eight]

1 hour ago, A&L_Ont said:

I’m not saying you are neither right or wrong. I’m just looking at a comparable as we are testing 20,000+ a day and exact same “grouping” in our province. We are having less than 200 positives a day.

Andrew,

 

Any restrictions on testing?  In Florida anyone may get tested. Generally they would like you to make an appointment. 
 

M8

[cured]

34 minutes ago, molly361 said:

Today's news in Florida  YIKES

 

 

 

 

 

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Gov. Ron DeSantis said 260 workers at the Orlando International Airport have tested positive for the coronavirus after nearly 500 employees were tested.

 

That is an over 50% infection rate. Yikes is right.  But they could be considered a high risk group as they see hundreds of different travelers a day.

 

That probably also is part of the reason that today's news is reporting that the percentage of those testing positive within the tested group has risen to over 9% overall in Florida, a record number.   Testing high risk groups will naturally produce a higher percentage of positives.  Still not a good number and shows the risk of traveling and moving outside of your bubble and how contagious this virus really is. People traveling is the main reason this virus spread world wide in just a few months rather than a much slower spread rate with other pandemics.

[ECCruise]

51 minutes ago, molly361 said:

Today's news in Florida  YIKES

 

 

 

 

 

TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Gov. Ron DeSantis said 260 workers at the Orlando International Airport have tested positive for the coronavirus after nearly 500 employees were tested.

 

DeSantis misspoke.

MCO has clarified that the 260 positives were cumulative since March.

I am strongly of the opinion that states are opening too fast and too early, but it is important that all the information is out there.

[grandgeezer]

There's a story on msn.com about 16 friends who were at a bar, in Jacksonville celebrating a birthday and they all tested positive for the virus. There was no masks and no social distancing. All were positive that's where they got it. So far none of the cases has turned serious. They were younger, but who knows if any of them spread it to others?

[cured]

6 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

To expand on what cured said, the short answer is no one knows.  The FDA allowed tons of tests to be pushed forward under the emergency use, so the performance of the tests are not always clear. 

 

The PCR test (the nasal swab) tests if you have active virus shedding.  It doesn't know if the virus is alive or not, just that it's coming out of your body.  It is good in the sense that all people who are CURRENTLY infectious should test positive, though it seems to remain positive for a while even when you are no longer infectious.  The bad news is that if you are infected before you start shedding, it's not going to detect it.  Also, because it's all under emergency use, some labs are doing better than others.  Other tests in it's class (RT-PCR) can get really good accuracy (~99+%), but the anecdotes from the field are some big labs running it may only be around say ~60% accurate (mostly in the lack of sensitivity side), so it depends on the quality of the test and the lab.

 

The antibody tests depends again on how you are measuring it.  The quick chromographic test strips (the ones like a pregnancy test) are really bad.  Basically might as well flip a coin.   The ones that use full blood draws are fairly okay, but it's known that there's a lot of problems with them in the specificity side.  Again, because of the emergency use, it turns out a lot of the antibody tests are picking up antibodies to non-SARS-COV2 coronaviruses.  So there are false positives where people think they are immune but they are not.  It will take time to sort it out and figure out who has tests that work well and has good sensitivity and specificity.

 

Like many other virus antibody tests, they are split into IgM and IgG.  IgM tells you if you have an active infection, though it turns positive later than the PCR does.  The IgG tells you if you've ever had an infection, and turns positive much much later than the IgM.

 

The real problem right now, is that no one knows the real significance of the positive IgG test.  From data from other coronaviruses, just having the antibody alone probably isn't enough to confer immunity, there had to be a sufficient concentration in the blood.  And no one knows what that titer of antibodies is that will give you immunity. 

 

So again, if you have a positive IgG test, it may be wrong in that it's picking up the wrong coronavirus, and it may be wrong in the sens that even if you had a mild covid infection, it may not prevent a second one.

 

 

The problem is the incubation period.  If you get the infection, there is like a 3-19 day period when the virus is silently replicating.  Then you start shedding active virus 1-2 days before you show your first symptom (probably).  So even if you tests everyone coming onto a ship with 100% accuracy, you would have to quarantine everyone for 19 days and test everyone again to be absolutely sure the ship has no COVID

 

 

There are several different flu tests.  Testing for flu has it's own different problem compared to testing for SARS-COV2.  In general they are pretty different from one another that it doesn't mean much to compare testing between the 2.

Thank you for the succinct scientific explanation! So nice to hear real science instead of opinion or even just plain false information.

[crewsweeper]

5 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

DeSantis misspoke.

MCO has clarified that the 260 positives were cumulative since March.

I am strongly of the opinion that states are opening too fast and too early, but it is important that all the information is out there.

Yes,  good point.   we see time and time again, total number of positive cases, most coming from cumulative and old data.  There are test sites in Florida where you don't get results for 10 days.  So by the time the positives are reported from those sites, the infected persons are well out of their contagious stage.  Hospital admissions for CV19 haven't risen.  And in many cases, special wards have been closed or now used for other purposes.  But there is a big push in FL to test the more vulnerable demographic cohorts, which, BTW, is the better way to manage the risk.

Let the asymptomatic and minor symptomatic folks self-isolate.  Protect those with conditions that could lead to fatalities if CV19 is present. Let the rest of us be cognizant of the risks and do things like wear masks and to the extent possible social distance until vaccines are available for all.  Enough of the panicking.  Studies are finding that total lockdowns aren't flattening the curve.

[Canadianmama3]

38 minutes ago, Milwaukee Eight said:

Andrew,

 

Any restrictions on testing?  In Florida anyone may get tested. Generally they would like you to make an appointment. 
 

M8

In Ontario we have had restrictions on testing in the past but now everyone who wants one can get it.  Our testing rate has gone up as well.  But our numbers of positives have gone down.  So I don’t totally agree with the whole “we only have more positive cases because we are doing more testing argument”. 
 

A good number to look at is the number of people hospitalized.  Since you expect the same percentage of people to be hospitalized no matter how much testing you do. If it’s going up, you probably an increase in actual cases.  Not just because of more testing.  

[ECCruise]

10 minutes ago, crewsweeper said:

Enough of the panicking.  Studies are finding that total lockdowns aren't flattening the curve.

You will have to show me the data for these "studies."

Everything that I have seen shows the exact opposite.  Europe.  Most of Asia.  New York.  New Jersey.  Australia.  New Zealand.

Some (NY, NJ, Italy e.g.) had horrible death tolls but they absolutely flattened the curve.  The only country in Europe that has not flattened the curve is Sweden.  Guess what their posture was?  And that was with thousands and thousands of Swedes self "quarantining." 

Edited June 17, 2020 by ECCruise

[A&L_Ont]

1 hour ago, atgood said:

Do you know if the threshold of what is considered a positive test result is the same with Florida and Canada?

Health Canada has never talked about a threshold.

 

1 hour ago, Canadianmama3 said:

What does this even mean? You are positive if they detect the virus.  If they do not you are negative. 

That is my understanding as well.  

[cured]

7 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

40% of people infected with SARS and lived, reported chronic fatigue four years after infection!  That's insane.  Even if COVID is more mild, having less energy sucks and it would suck if it turns out a significant percentage of people end up with life-long fatigue.

 

👍That seems to be already happening.  I watched an interview  yesterday with a person who tested positive way back in the beginning.  She is now testing negative yet she is still experiencing pretty severe chronic fatigue that is attributed to a side effect of the virus.  So far, no cure.

 

On a more personal note, we have two people in our social group who contracted the virus back in March. One is a young person in his 30s, one is in the high risk group of over 70.  Both were on vents for quite a few weeks, touch and go. Both have since been released and are still on oxygen. For both of them, the lung damage is so severe that their oxygen use is predicted to be lifelong. 

 

People are only talking about the percentage of death. Nobody is talking about the lifelong side effects people may have to live with if they are hospitalized and survive

[A&L_Ont]

3 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

You will have to show me the data for these "studies."

Everything that I have seen shows the exact opposite.  Europe.  Most of Asia.  New York.  New Jersey.  Australia.  New Zealand.

 

It has been said by many countries that the lockdown was to control the surge/influx on the hospital system.  Unfortunately as you said, some didn’t get that chance such NY, Italy etc...

On a side note wasn’t New Zealand Covid free a few days ago, like until the next day and then they had 2 cases. 

[ECCruise]

Just now, A&L_Ont said:

It has been said by many countries that the lockdown was to control the surge/influx on the hospital system.  Unfortunately as you said, some didn’t get that chance such NY, Italy etc...

On a side note wasn’t New Zealand Covid free a few days ago, like until the next day and then they had 2 cases. 

Yes.  Inbound  NZ citizens arriving from the UK via OZ.

And there are still people thinking that cruising will resume in Oceania this fall.

[Canadianmama3]

1 minute ago, cured said:

👍That seems to be already happening.  I watched an interview  yesterday with a person who tested positive way back in the beginning.  She is now testing negative yet she is still experiencing pretty severe chronic fatigue that is attributed to a side effect of the virus.  So far, no cure.

 

On a more personal note, we have two people in our social group who contracted the virus back in March. One is a young person in his 30s, one is in the high risk group of over 70.  Both were on vents for quite a few weeks, touch and go. Both have since been released and are still on oxygen. For both of them, the lung damage is so severe that their oxygen use is predicted to be lifelong. 

 

People are only talking about the percentage of death. Nobody is talking about the lifelong side effects people may have to live with if they are hospitalized and survive

This is so true.  Yes for many it’s mild.  But for many it is not.  And even those that are called “mild” are not a pleasant experience.  I’ve had the flu before and honestly that’s horrible.  Like I said before I know someone who was considered “mild” and they were pretty sick for 6 weeks. 

 

2 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

[zalusky]

https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200513/complications-on-the-road-to-recovery-after-covid

 

Down the road your life can be a lot worse.   This is what a lot of people are missing when say for most people its very mild:

Quote

Researchers have found that people with mild disease can have abnormal lab or imaging findings, even if they never progress to a more severe disease. According to Edwards’s study, 47% of people who had only a mild disease and 61% with a moderate disease had abnormal liver function tests, indicating injury to the liver, during their illness. Another small study found that 50% of people who didn’t have symptoms had abnormal findings on imaging tests showing damage in the lungs, even without lung symptoms.

Edited June 17, 2020 by zalusky

[A&L_Ont]

22 minutes ago, Canadianmama3 said:

In Ontario we have had restrictions on testing in the past but now everyone who wants one can get it.  Our testing rate has gone up as well.  But our numbers of positives have gone down.  So I don’t totally agree with the whole “we only have more positive cases because we are doing more testing argument”. 
 

A good number to look at is the number of people hospitalized.  Since you expect the same percentage of people to be hospitalized no matter how much testing you do. If it’s going up, you probably an increase in actual cases.  Not just because of more testing.  

@Milwaukee Eight To further Canadianmamma’s comments..
 

People working in LTC hard being tested twice monthly now and residents as needed. Over and above, essential workers always had the ability to get tested as they wished.  Lots of testing in Ontario and far less positives.
 

The trend in Canada now appears to be the youth getting it because they are out and about, probably with a feeling of invincibility.  Also the larger Centers in Ontario are having more cases due to population density. The other section of the population getting infected right now are migrant workers on larger vegetable farms. 
 

Our neighboring province of Quebec, on the other hand, is having about 100 less cases a day than Ontario.  However, they are testing 1/4 of what we are today.  Up until recently they had double our daily cases, and they have a population of 5.5 million less than us. To me it’s a sign of test less, and you will find less. 

Edited June 17, 2020 by A&L_Ont

[A&L_Ont]

2 hours ago, HBE4 said:

Stop straddling the fence and pick a side. Are you with the COVID shaming police or the COVID-is-a-hoax shaming police? 😄😉

LOL, I’d say neither.  Working in health care I can see the need to be cautious but also to continue forward, much the same as other Dr’s, and nurses here.  

[Canadianmama3]

2 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

LOL, I’d say neither.  Working in health care I can see the need to be cautious but also to continue forward, much the same as other Dr’s, and nurses here.  

I wish so many people had this view.  Yes let’s start doing more of what we used to do, but in a way that also keeps us safe.  I really don’t understands people’s objection to some precautions.  That’s how we can actually start doing more things.  

[Milwaukee Eight]

40 minutes ago, Canadianmama3 said:

This is so true.  Yes for many it’s mild.  But for many it is not.  And even those that are called “mild” are not a pleasant experience.  I’ve had the flu before and honestly that’s horrible.  Like I said before I know someone who was considered “mild” and they were pretty sick for 6 weeks. 

 

And then we are back to the 70+ issues with sailing.