Carnival Corp to retire 6 ships in next 90 days

[quattrohead]

Here are my predictions for a new slimmer Carnival Corp family tree.
It encompasses a bit more than the initial 6 ships being retired.

Sun Princess(1995), Sea Princess(1998), P&O Pacific Explorer(1997) and P&O UK Oceana(2000) will go as they are the same class of ship.
Pacific Dawn(1991) and Pacific Aria(1994) will go - Note this means all P&O Australia old ships are gone, more later.
neoRomantica(1993) will follow her sister out.
I think Victory/Radience(2000) is in grave danger.

 

Next cull will probably be Fantasy(1990), Imagination(1995) and Inspiration(1996) due to no balconies, maybe Ecstacy(1991) will not return from India.
If Destiny/Sunshine(1996) and Triumph/Sunrise(1999) go then so will Costa Fortuna(2003) and Magica(2004), hence removing another class of ship.
HAL MS Massdam(1993) and MS Veendam(1996) just plain old.
AIDA Mira(1999) could go to MSC to join Armonia, Lirica and Opera. Cara(1996), Vita(2002) and Aura(2003) would be scrapped or sold as a set too.
Pacific Princess(1999) is an odd ball in the fleet and should go.
Grand Princess(1998), Golden Princess(2001) and Star Princess(2002) also could be sold off because Golden and Star were to be transfered to P&O Australia.

I think both P&O (UK and Aus), Cunard and Seabourn will be merged into a single company but not sure under what name.

 

So round 1 will be 8 ships, round 2 will be 18 ships sold off or scrapped.

[rkacruiser]

The appeal of verandas on ships cannot be discounted.  But, those ships that have azipods may be more significant to the operation of cruises for the Companies.  Elation has azipods.  Not sure about Paradise, but of the Fantasy Class, I'd expect those two vessels having the best chance of remaining in the Carnival Cruise Line fleet.

[tidecat]

Victor

40 minutes ago, quattrohead said:

Here are my predictions for a new slimmer Carnival Corp family tree.
It encompasses a bit more than the initial 6 ships being retired.

Sun Princess(1995), Sea Princess(1998), P&O Pacific Explorer(1997) and P&O UK Oceana(2000) will go as they are the same class of ship.
Pacific Dawn(1991) and Pacific Aria(1994) will go - Note this means all P&O Australia old ships are gone, more later.
neoRomantica(1993) will follow her sister out.
I think Victory/Radience(2000) is in grave danger.

 

Next cull will probably be Fantasy(1990), Imagination(1995) and Inspiration(1996) due to no balconies, maybe Ecstacy(1991) will not return from India.
If Destiny/Sunshine(1996) and Triumph/Sunrise(1999) go then so will Costa Fortuna(2003) and Magica(2004), hence removing another class of ship.
HAL MS Massdam(1993) and MS Veendam(1996) just plain old.
AIDA Mira(1999) could go to MSC to join Armonia, Lirica and Opera. Cara(1996), Vita(2002) and Aura(2003) would be scrapped or sold as a set too.
Pacific Princess(1999) is an odd ball in the fleet and should go.
Grand Princess(1998), Golden Princess(2001) and Star Princess(2002) also could be sold off because Golden and Star were to be transfered to P&O Australia.

I think both P&O (UK and Aus), Cunard and Seabourn will be merged into a single company but not sure under what name.

 

So round 1 will be 8 ships, round 2 will be 18 ships sold off or scrapped.

Victory/Radiance will not be in "grave danger", but will be severely delayed. MSC likely wouldn't buy anything secondhand from Carnival. Sunrise will not be sold off, she is still carrying basically the full cost of her refurbishment on the balance sheet.

 

Carnival Corp seems very bearish on Europe - the Costa newbuilds (Firenze, Toscana) were ordered for China. I would agree with neoRomantica likely getting cut. Atlantica, Fortuna, and Magica seem like odd cuts due to their lack of age.

 

If the P&O Australia ships that were scheduled to go to CMV have those deals fall through, Carnival might take the money now from a breaker. I could also see Carnival canceling the refurbishments on Golden Princess and Star Princess, which means Carnival may still need Pacific Dawn and Pacific Aria in service for P&O.

 

Part of it may come down to whether Carnival feels it's necessary to get rid of the Diamond Princess, Ruby Princess, and Grand Princess names. Depsite being younger ships, they are linked to the pandemic.

 

My predictions to join the already announced Costa Victoria are the Carnival Fantasy, Costa neoRomantica, Maasdam, Grand Princess, and Diamond Princess.

 

[pc_load_letter]

21 hours ago, KmomChicago said:

I agree that redundancy like Imagination and Inspiration both doing the same short runs from Long Beach may be a thing of the past.

 

I would disagree. Those ships are but a few on the west coast and serve a large base of first time and "party" cruisers from the likes of San Diego, LA, Arizona, Nevada, Northern CA that all arrive into LA for those cruises. They are always full. I doubt they would kill those three and four day cruises and expect CA residents to travel to Texas or Fl or to take more expensive cruises on Panorama.

[KmomChicago]

59 minutes ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

I would disagree. Those ships are but a few on the west coast and serve a large base of first time and "party" cruisers from the likes of San Diego, LA, Arizona, Nevada, Northern CA that all arrive into LA for those cruises. They are always full. I doubt they would kill those three and four day cruises and expect CA residents to travel to Texas or Fl or to take more expensive cruises on Panorama.

Sorry, I should have clarified. I could see them using one of the larger ships, with a higher capacity, rather than the two small ships for the short cruises.  A Fantasy class ship has a double occupancy capacity of just over 2,000 while a Conquest class ship has a double occupancy capacity of almost 3,000, and again, those desirable balconies. Assuming some drop in demand is anticipated, which seems in line with the announcement that it’s time to retire ships, this is just one way they might adjust. 
 

I agree with you that they will certainly keep existing ships on current itineraries if prior demand holds true going forward. But if not, getting a larger and newer ship to do the short cruises might be seen as an upgrade for those on the west coast who would like to try another ship without making the (substantial as you note) leap up to Panorama.

 

Just wild speculation anyway!

[Trueblueky]

Are fleets of ships like fleets of airplanes where having fewer types of aircraft creates simpler maintenance?

[jimbo5544]

2 minutes ago, Trueblueky said:

Are fleets of ships like fleets of airplanes where having fewer types of aircraft creates simpler maintenance?

Most airlines lease their planes, not so in the cruise industry.  Cruise demand will most likely be affected by a lack of need for the ships that previous to the virus were needed.  Makes total sense to liquidate ship that were probably be on th blocks anyway with new product coming in and now def will not be needed for the foreseeable future.    

[Honolulu Blue]

4 hours ago, tidecat said:

Victory/Radiance will not be in "grave danger", but will be severely delayed.

 

I think it depends on how much of the estimated $200 million in refurb costs they've already sunk into it, how much is left to go, and how seaworthy it is right now.  If there's just a little bit of work to go, then they might as well pay to finish the job.  If the majority of the work (and expense) is left to go, then that $100+ million saved is as good as money earned.  It would be a shame to lose it to the scrapyard, because I'm sure it was (and would be) a nice ship, but if I had to pick one Carnival Corp. ship that would be scrapped, it would be this one.

 

Quote

My predictions to join the already announced Costa Victoria are the Carnival Fantasy, Costa neoRomantica, Maasdam, Grand Princess, and Diamond Princess.

 

The Grand Princess was due to be my first voyage on Princess back in March until that silly virus got in the way.

Edited June 22, 2020 by Honolulu Blue

[embarkation75]

4 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

I would disagree. Those ships are but a few on the west coast and serve a large base of first time and "party" cruisers from the likes of San Diego, LA, Arizona, Nevada, Northern CA that all arrive into LA for those cruises. They are always full. I doubt they would kill those three and four day cruises and expect CA residents to travel to Texas or Fl or to take more expensive cruises on Panorama.

 

The Miracle has very similar short cruise itineraries out of San Diego (plus some occasional 5/6 day cruises to Cabo and 15 day to Hawaii) as does the Imagination/Inspiration combo. I could see Carnival consolidating that market to the Miracle with the two older ships sent packing.

[xDisconnections]

4 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

I would disagree. Those ships are but a few on the west coast and serve a large base of first time and "party" cruisers from the likes of San Diego, LA, Arizona, Nevada, Northern CA that all arrive into LA for those cruises. They are always full. I doubt they would kill those three and four day cruises and expect CA residents to travel to Texas or Fl or to take more expensive cruises on Panorama.

Or they can get rid of the Inspiration and Imagination and utilize a better ship with upgraded room options to capture additional room rental revenue. Their prime competitor uses much nicer ships so why shouldn’t Carnival at least use something somewhat decent/okay to remain competitive? Their Fantasy class ships against a Voyager or Freedom class just doesn’t produce a competitive advantage in Carnival’s favor.

 

With both the Imagination and Inspiration there in addition to a Spirit class ship, there’s an overcapacity in a market that isn’t necessarily profitable on a good day with rock bottom prices.

Edited June 22, 2020 by xDisconnections

[Essiesmom]

I could see some more shuffling of ships among the lines.  For instance, Costa Atlantica already went to the China branch, and Costa Mediterannea is slated to go, too.  shame, as those two are Spirit class, and would probably do well on the West Coast and in Australia (for P&O-AU).  They could transfer the small AIDAcara to HAL to take over the former Prinsendam role.  Yes, she is old, but not so old as P. was.  Granted, I have never been inside these ships and have no idea what renovations would be needed...  EM

[BlerkOne]

21 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

Or they can get rid of the Inspiration and Imagination and utilize a better ship with upgraded room options to capture additional room rental revenue. Their prime competitor uses much nicer ships so why shouldn’t Carnival at least use something somewhat decent/okay to remain competitive? Their Fantasy class ships against a Voyager or Freedom class just doesn’t produce a competitive advantage in Carnival’s favor.

 

With both the Imagination and Inspiration there in addition to a Spirit class ship, there’s an overcapacity in a market that isn’t necessarily profitable on a good day with rock bottom prices.

 

Princess has ships on the left coast. It doesn't make sense to me for Carnival to try to compete more with Princess.

[xDisconnections]

1 minute ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Princess has ships on the left coast. It doesn't make sense to me for Carnival to try to compete more with Princess.

Although both are part of Carnival Corporation, they operate independently from one another with their own leadership and marketing teams. They also attract a different clientele at a different price point with different onboard preferences.

[drsel]

Carnival is considered 4* while Princess is 5*

the prices of Princess cruises are almost double that of Carnival, on a per night basis.

 

 

 

 

[BlerkOne]

11 hours ago, xDisconnections said:

Although both are part of Carnival Corporation, they operate independently from one another with their own leadership and marketing teams. They also attract a different clientele at a different price point with different onboard preferences.

 

For now and hence why the Imagination and Inspiration. If Carnival replaced those with a "nicer" ship, the incremental differences would be less. The clientele differences are nothing like they were decades ago.

 

As it is, the "brochure" price for short cruises on Carnival is higher than Princess, but is usually more heavily discounted. This makes sense since Carnival cruises more frequently and year round.

 

We will have to see what the lasting changes to cruising are as a result of covid-19, but I think they will be quite noticeable, including demographics and pricing.

 

 

[BlerkOne]

4 hours ago, drsel said:

Carnival is considered 4* while Princess is 5*

the prices of Princess cruises are almost double that of Carnival, on a per night basis.

 

 

 

 

 

Not on short cruises when there is head to head competition.

Edited June 22, 2020 by BlerkOne

[xDisconnections]

11 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Not on short cruises when there is head to head competition.

Princess very rarely offers short cruises anymore. They tried to move away from that years ago (2014-2015) and now it’s just the occasional sailing. Nearly all are now 7 days or longer.

[xDisconnections]

13 minutes ago, BlerkOne said:

 

For now and hence why the Imagination and Inspiration. If Carnival replaced those with a "nicer" ship, the incremental differences would be less. The clientele differences are nothing like they were decades ago.

 

As it is, the "brochure" price for short cruises on Carnival is higher than Princess, but is usually more heavily discounted. This makes sense since Carnival cruises more frequently and year round.

 

We will have to see what the lasting changes to cruising are as a result of covid-19, but I think they will be quite noticeable, including demographics and pricing.

 

 

Royal seems to be doing just fine with using Voyager and Freedom class ships for their 3/4 night party cruises. The clientele isn’t much different than Carnival’s.

[BlerkOne]

3 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

Royal seems to be doing just fine with using Voyager and Freedom class ships for their 3/4 night party cruises. The clientele isn’t much different than Carnival’s.

 

Nobody is doing just fine right now. I didn't know Royal had short cruises from the Los Angeles area or even California.

[drsel]

 
lasting changes to cruising are as a result of covid-19, but I think they will be quite noticeable, including demographics and pricing

do you think the current Cruise prices will drop? If so, when?

[BlerkOne]

2 minutes ago, drsel said:

 

do you think the current Cruise prices will drop? If so, when?
 

 

No, demand is currently greater than supply.

[xDisconnections]

1 hour ago, BlerkOne said:

 

Nobody is doing just fine right now. I didn't know Royal had short cruises from the Los Angeles area or even California.

They do from the east coast and have been wildly successful pre-Covid with the competitive advantage going towards Royal. Surely you cannot compare a Voyager or Freedom class ship to a Fantasy class ship at a similar lead-in price point.

 

It's time to transition the Fantasy class ships out.

[keywest1]

On 6/18/2020 at 12:26 PM, NightOne said:

 

Discount for prime members or special area? LOL

Hope it's not two day shipping--that'd make me sad to have to get off the ship days before the non-primes 😭

[BlerkOne]

2 minutes ago, xDisconnections said:

They do from the east coast and have been wildly successful pre-Covid with the competitive advantage going towards Royal. Surely you cannot compare a Voyager or Freedom class ship to a Fantasy class ship at a similar lead-in price point.

 

It's time to transition the Fantasy class ships out.

 

Who cares what Royal offers on the East coast? The demographics are completely different. Royal offers nothing to compete with Imagination and Inspiration on the West Coast. Why in the world would Carnival consider replacing them with a different ship?

 

On the East coast, no Voyager or Freedom class ship can compete with Fantasy class on cruises to Cuba.  You would have to drop back to rust bucket Sovereign or Empress class.

[CogitoErgoZoom]

16 hours ago, Trueblueky said:

Are fleets of ships like fleets of airplanes where having fewer types of aircraft creates simpler maintenance?

I can't imagine so.  Cost containment from airline fleet type similarity comes from only needing your technical operations departments trained to work on that type of plane, as well as keeping a warehouse of parts stocked for only that type as opposed to having to keep Widget #ABC123 for your Boeing 737s and also for your Airbus A320s due to the differences in design.  Also for the cabin and cockpit crews as well since they have to undergo rigorous training for the particular model of plane they will be flying/flying on.  There are some exceptions like the Boeing 757/767 (remember to step down into the 757 cockpit....step up on the 767) that were specifically engineered with system commonality for fleet management cost containment purposes, as well as many 737 models, Airbus A318/319/320/321, and also the A330 and A340 share quite a few part structures although the A340 was rather a sales failure.

 

To my knowledge, and there is a VERY HIGH chance I'm wrong on this as marine engineering is not my forte, but cruise ship "classes" are more about gross tonnage and their sheer size determining what ports they are able to visit, for example.  (Similarly, container ships are classed by whether or not they can traverse the Panama Canal "Panamax") And whereas an airline pilot can hop from one 737 to another multiple times a day, I don't believe a CCL captain can necessarily jump from Vista to Horizon on subsequent cruises due to each individual hull having handling details specific to itself.  But that comes only from my asking a RCCL captain once a number of years ago at dinner.

Edited June 22, 2020 by CogitoErgoZoom