What I have learned today

[DaveOKC]

On the casino offers list I received 2 days ago, the earliest sailing is 12-9-20 and the latest is in April 2021.  Normally the casino offerings like this are very close-in and seldom go out further than 6 months, so I take this to mean that HAL really expects to start up in December.  Just my opinion.

[Tampa Girl]

On 6/23/2020 at 5:47 PM, RocketMan275 said:

 

No vaccine has ever been approved for any coronavirus.

What happens then?

 

I thought there had been one developed for SARS, although it was not used.  Isn't that a corona virus?

[Tampa Girl]

7 minutes ago, Tampa Girl said:

 

I thought there had been one developed for SARS, although it was not used.  Isn't that a corona virus?

 

Sorry, my question was answered by several posts that I later read.  

[iancal]

No surprise whatsoever. The surprise to me that they are only cancelled until the end of November.  Here we go again...churn those bookings, FCC's, and continue create  a false sense cruise anticipation for luckless customers.

 

I would expect many cruise line subsidiaries to either not make it out of this or to come out with a much smaller fleet and possibly a much different marketing focus.  All down to the financials, the accountants, the lawyers, and the restructuring experts. 

 

I believe that there is a long, long road ahead for cruise lines before even customer 1 embarks on a cruise.

Edited June 26, 2020 by iancal

[iancal]

It will be interesting to see if HAL and others stop accepting bookings on these cruises or whether they will wait until after the final payment windows to make a public announcement.

 

Perhaps some musical group could do a remake of  the Byrds hit Turn! Turn!Turn! 

 

They could rename  it Churn! Churn! Churn!

Edited June 26, 2020 by iancal

[rkacruiser]

3 hours ago, iancal said:

Perhaps some musical group could do a remake of  the Byrds hit Turn! Turn!Turn! 

 

They could rename  it Churn! Churn! Churn!

 

Ah, The Byrds!  One of my favorite groups of that era!  Still have a couple of their albums.

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, iancal said:

I would expect many cruise line subsidiaries to either not make it out of this or to come out with a much smaller fleet and possibly a much different marketing focus

 

I think much effort will be made to maintain the current operating companies if for no other reason than to try to keep guest brand loyalty.  At some point, of course, that may not be feasible.  Smaller fleets?  Carnival Corporation has already announced that at least 6 ships of what ever operating companies are going.  

 

4 hours ago, iancal said:

I believe that there is a long, long road ahead for cruise lines before even customer 1 embarks on a cruise.

 

Yes.  I do believe, though, that just as during the disco era a popular song was I Will Survive (I prefer Gloria Gaynor's version of it incidentally),  the cruise industry will survive as well.   

[KroozNut]

12 hours ago, iancal said:

I believe that there is a long, long road ahead for cruise lines before even customer 1 embarks on a cruise.

 

Pretty subjective statement (but safe one at the same time). Could you possibly narrow down what your definition of 'long, long' means to you? To me, in this context, it would be anytime after the end of this year. To others, it may range from a few weeks to even decades.

[iancal]

That would be my uneducated guess as well.   I really believe that the cruise lines have the same problem as we do.  They cannot open early for fear of opening too early.  There needs to be a solution not just a flattening of the curve.  Masks and social distancing won't cut it with the cruise line management or with CDC despite the ramblings on this forum about it.  Ditto for closed loop cruises. 

 

  I do not think that that any cruise line wants to be in a similar situation like Florida, Texas, or Arizona find themselves in.   Opening early, gangbusters, then the big oh my gosh it is still here....we screwed up big time.   Maybe we should have listened to our public health professions after all.  Cruise lines cannot afford any more bad publicity or litigation than they already have or are about to have.

 

 I believe that the cruise industry is much smarter than our political leaders (that would not be terribly difficult).   This time they will hopefully make decisions for the long term health and survival of their business and the health and well being of their customers.   I certainly want them to succeed and come back strong.

 

At the end of the day who really knows.  Could be that in December they announce a March startup or another delay.   You need a good Ouiji board to figure this one out.  We certainly would not be booking a November or December cruise any time soon.  Come to think of, probably not until mid 2021 at the very earliest.  We are members of the trust but verify society.

 

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by iancal

[cruisemom42]

To return to the original topic, if this cancellation is known, why are they not announcing it? 

 

They have a list of cancellations covering some of the period, but it's kind of like swiss cheese -- definitely some holes.

 

 

 

[RuthC]

1 hour ago, cruisemom42 said:

To return to the original topic, if this cancellation is known, why are they not announcing it? 

Perhaps because it will start a new round of refunds to be processed, and they are attempting to stagger the workload. Not to mention the draw on the assets needs to be staggered, too. 

[T8NCruise]

15 minutes ago, RuthC said:

Perhaps because it will start a new round of refunds to be processed, and they are attempting to stagger the workload. Not to mention the draw on the assets needs to be staggered, too. 

 

Then I wonder how they feel about what was likely a confidential announcement to just some being announced on Cruise Critic.  Word must have gotten back with many CC members asking about their bookings, etc.  So time to fess up!

[kazu]

2 minutes ago, T8NCruise said:

 

Then I wonder how they feel about what was likely a confidential announcement to just some being announced on Cruise Critic.  Word must have gotten back with many CC members asking about their bookings, etc.  So time to fess up!

 

Very good point.  I also wonder if HAL’s latest announcement (where many cruises were cancelled in 2020 and some in 2021 was misunderstood or miscommunicated?  Who knows?  

 

[iancal]

You can only judge them by their past performance.

[CruiserBruce]

2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

To return to the original topic, if this cancellation is known, why are they not announcing it? 

 

They have a list of cancellations covering some of the period, but it's kind of like swiss cheese -- definitely some holes.

 

 

 

Hmmm...friend sent me a link out of an airline travel agency that indicates, while much of HAL won't sail until 2021, that Mexican Rivera is probably going to be open this Fall.

[Al Aboard]

I wonder if HAL has developed a plan to communicate changes/cancellations to their customers, vendors, crew and ports of call, etc.  For myself, I would like to be informed ASAP on any known changes made so I can make adjustments to my plans - hotels, airlines, etc. - my next cruise is scheduled for January on the N. Statendam and I am in doubt it will sail).   I wonder if they are just too overwhelmed with a smaller staff to get this information out or if they are informing others before they release it to the general public.  I know I would hate to be a crew member thinking employment is starting on a certain date only to read on the internet that he/she doesn't have a job yet.

[Ken the cruiser]

My guess is you won’t see any cruises until a vaccine is available, which falls in line with what the OP wrote. We are booked on a Westerdam Antarctica cruise in late November and really have no expectations that it will sail. However, as soon as AstraZenica, for example, is approved to start releasing vaccines, hopefully in October, then we’ll started getting excited again. 

[iancal]

 I believe HAL's plan, and others, could best be described as the drip, drip, drip plan..... Time for a new rubber washer.

[RocketMan275]

1 hour ago, Ken the cruiser said:

My guess is you won’t see any cruises until a vaccine is available, which falls in line with what the OP wrote. We are booked on a Westerdam Antarctica cruise in late November and really have no expectations that it will sail. However, as soon as AstraZenica, for example, is approved to start releasing vaccines, hopefully in October, then we’ll started getting excited again. 

Those that put their hope on a vaccine may be very disappointed.

[Himself]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Those that put their hope on a vaccine may be very disappointed.

I agree.   How long did we have Polio among us before we had a vaccine?

It was ripping havock long before I was born and I was a junior in high school when the Salk vaccine was approved for use in the USA 

[cruisequeen4ever]

Ugh, that’s making Christmas cruises look less and less likely. 😢

[Ken the cruiser]

2 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Those that put their hope on a vaccine may be very disappointed.

I disagree, but then again I'm an optimist. But I will say when one does become available in our area, and there will be one, we'll be in line waiting to get it just like we did when I was 10 when the polio vaccine was administered in a sugar cube in front of a bank in Santa Rosa, CA. Unfortunately, my younger cousin for some reason didn't come to the bank with his family that day and wound up getting polio.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Ken the cruiser

[KirkNC]

55 minutes ago, Himself said:

I agree.   How long did we have Polio among us before we had a vaccine?

It was ripping havock long before I was born and I was a junior in high school when the Salk vaccine was approved for use in the USA 

Smallpox vaccine was developed in1796 , smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smallpox_vaccine

 

It unusual for a vaccine to be developed in less then five years but it’s possible for faster development but it has to be vetted, manufactured and distributed.  Then you get into the people who will refuse the vaccine (a recent poll put that number at 20%).  

 

Edited June 27, 2020 by KirkNC

[Roz]

49 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

I disagree, but then again I'm an optimist. But I will say when one does become available in our area, and there will be one, we'll be in line waiting to get it just like we did when I was 10 when the polio vaccine was administered in a sugar cube in front of a bank in Santa Rosa, CA. Unfortunately, my younger cousin for some reason didn't come to the bank with his family that day and wound up getting polio.

 

I got a polio shot in our township's high school gym, and later the sugar cube in the junior high cafeteria.  A young lady I work with announced she wasn't going to get her baby inoculated.  I suggested she Google "iron lung".  When she saw what it was, she told me "you're kidding me".  I told her I wish I was.  We had a kid in my neighborhood in one, and whenever there was a power outage we took turns riding a stationary bike hooked up to a generator to keep him breathing until the electricity came back on.  

 

22 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Smallpox vaccine was developed in1796 , smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980.

 

Smallpox was eradicated in the US in 1949.  I don't know that we have to wait until COVID-19 is eradicated everywhere to cruise, but I'll wait for a medical professional to weigh in.  

[KirkNC]

Yes 1980 is whenWHO declared it eradicated world wide.