Any signs of bankrupcy for any major cruiselines?

[njhorseman]

57 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

We are aren't even to first base on this pandemic here in the US so what will 2022 be like?

 

Interesting read on NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/10/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-economy-two-years.html

 

"Large swaths of the cruise-ship and theme-park industries might go away.... 

The opinion piece's quote from Warren Buffet nails it: “It’s only when the tide goes out,” Warren Buffett likes to say, “that you learn who’s been swimming naked.”

 

The tide going out is particularly apt for the cruise industry. 

[navybankerteacher]

1 minute ago, wowzz said:

He keeps popping up on a UK forum, spouting inanities that are totally irrelevant. 

I know I should ignore him, but he writes such rubbish that I keep rising to the bait, which perhaps is his purpose. 

He has certainly never written anything which has been of the slightest use or interest. 

There’s someone in Fredericksburg, Virginia who leaves this fellow in the shade.

[LHT28]

3 hours ago, wowzz said:

He keeps popping up on a UK forum, spouting inanities that are totally irrelevant. 

I know I should ignore him, but he writes such rubbish that I keep rising to the bait, which perhaps is his purpose. 

He has certainly never written anything which has been of the slightest use or interest. 

Put him on your ignore list  then sit back & enjoy the forums  LOL

[iancal]

It is early days yet.  There is a long road to recovery ahead for the cruise lines. Start up won't be the end of the threat if they are overburdened with debt negotiated at at a high interest rate.

 

[ldubs]

1 hour ago, LHT28 said:

Put him on your ignore list  then sit back & enjoy the forums  LOL

 

Yes!   I found my time being polluted by one poster who has a relentless need to bring out the negative, even when it is obvious.    Now there is much happiness!  Lol.  

[Heidi13]

2 hours ago, LHT28 said:

Put him on your ignore list  then sit back & enjoy the forums  LOL

 

Added him to the ignore list a few weeks ago😀

[mnocket]

9 hours ago, drsel said:

According to CNBC:

"Shares of Carnival surged 9.5% after the cruise operator said it is seeing demand for voyages in 2021, with the majority of bookings being new and not from rescheduling, and will restart voyages from Germany in August.

The company also said on a conference call that it can be cash flow break even at a capacity between 30% and 50%"
CNBC’s Seema Modi reports
 

If this was from their prior conference call, what they said then was that they could break even on an EBITDA basis with capacity of 30% for new ships and 50% for older ships.  There's a big difference between EBITDA break even and profitability.  CEOs are paid to paint a rosy picture.

[ontheweb]

5 hours ago, mnocket said:

If this was from their prior conference call, what they said then was that they could break even on an EBITDA basis with capacity of 30% for new ships and 50% for older ships.  There's a big difference between EBITDA break even and profitability.  CEOs are paid to paint a rosy picture.

And seeing that the stock went up after this call, he did an excellent job of painting a rosy picture. But let's wait and see if the picture and the reality of the situation end up being the same.

[navybankerteacher]

6 hours ago, mnocket said:

If this was from their prior conference call, what they said then was that they could break even on an EBITDA basis with capacity of 30% for new ships and 50% for older ships.  There's a big difference between EBITDA break even and profitability.  CEOs are paid to paint a rosy picture.

A meaningless “break even” claim.  The “I” alone could put them in the tank - and almost surely would if they sailed at 50% for any significant time for fares their base market would tolerate.

[iancal]

There can be a world of difference between forecasts and actuals. 

 

The forecast will not mean much if covid persists and eliminates most cruising for several months longer than anticipated.  Or  if  the take rate is less than anticipated, or if the discounts required to secure the desired levels of occupancy are much larger than anticipated.

 

Just imagine the negative impact on cruising if one ship sails too early and has a covid outbreak.  The forecast will go poof.

Edited July 11, 2020 by iancal

[chipmaster]

19 hours ago, drsel said:

According to CNBC:

"Shares of Carnival surged 9.5% after the cruise operator said it is seeing demand for voyages in 2021, with the majority of bookings being new and not from rescheduling, and will restart voyages from Germany in August.

The company also said on a conference call that it can be cash flow break even at a capacity between 30% and 50%"
CNBC’s Seema Modi reports
 

 

Spin and more spin, you think they are going to say the world is going to end, they are trying to manage wallstreet, the bankers to the best light duh!

 

They need both the stock to stay positive or not drop to below 10 again, they need positive belief to secure additional financing at reasonable rates, they already pay a debt premium.

 

They spin the future bookings, but the reality if their sailings continue to get restricted the bookings are meaningless.

 

BTW everyone know about the Europe cruise where 1K got on, 1 got sick and well there went that cruise.  Kept pretty quiet but wait till mainline press gets the story.  With testing showing postive between 3-5% and some places above 20% whats the probability you have 20-30 asymptomatic carriers mingling with the highest risk cruises and OMG you got another cruise industry killing event?

 

I am hopping come 2022 I can consider cruising again, that's the earliest I see them returning to anything I'd find intereseting.  

 

A sail to no-where with so many things restricted like gym, bar, dinner, pool, theater, whats the point?

 

Look at a simple reduced capacity short cruise what happened, cruiselines will hide and surpress and spin the best, no different than the news / cable or spinning the end is coming

 

https://finlandtoday.fi/several-coronavirus-cases-found-on-cruise-ferries-multiple-exposures-possible-on-silja-europa/

Edited July 11, 2020 by chipmaster

[Wayfairers]

No surprise that there is a potential of exposure to Covid on a ferry, or an airplane, or anywhere that people are in close proximity to each other.  It isn’t just cruise ships.  Until there is a vaccine if you don’t want to catch Covid you don’t put yourself around a group of people.  

 

Covid is still such an unknown that any forecasts cannot be accurate.  We can all hope to be back to normal a year from now, but who knows what the reality will be.

[drsel]

The Beijing institute already has got a vaccine approved.

Oxford has already reached the third stage of clinical trials and will soon get approved

 

 

[navybankerteacher]

On 7/11/2020 at 7:34 AM, ontheweb said:

And seeing that the stock went up after this call, he did an excellent job of painting a rosy picture. But let's wait and see if the picture and the reality of the situation end up being the same.

One interesting tangential item which may cause some ruffled feathers is the report that Arison sold 10,000,000 shares of Carnival Corp. for about $43 back in mid-February, not too long before everything hit the fan.  His timing was great - he’s about $280,000,000 better off now than if he had held on to it.  

[njhorseman]

1 hour ago, drsel said:

The Beijing institute already has got a vaccine approved.

Do you have verification of that?

 

Everything I've found says their vaccine is in trials just as a number of vaccines are. Like some other vaccines in trials they're looking at year end as a potential approval timeline.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine/potential-covid-19-vaccine-from-china-shows-promise-in-animal-tests-idUSKBN23H15J

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/chinese-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-year-end-government-body-says-idUSKBN2360GJ

[njhorseman]

2 hours ago, drsel said:

 

Oxford has already reached the third stage of clinical trials and will soon get approved

You must know something they don't. When a vaccine is in trials no one can say "will soon get approved".

Historically 90% of vaccines that make it to human trails eventually fail to make it to market.

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it

[Ashland]

59 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

You must know something they don't. When a vaccine is in trials no one can say "will soon get approved".

Historically 90% of vaccines that make it to human trails eventually fail to make it to market.

https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it

Absolutely this ^^^^^

[drsel]

Do you have verification of that?   Everything I've found says their vaccine is in trials just as a number of vaccines are. Like some other vaccines in trials they're looking at year end as a potential approval timeline.[/url]

I saw this in a Whatsapp message, but I can't verify it. The source is mentioned at the bottom.

[drsel]

You must know something they don't. When a vaccine is in trials no one can say "will soon get approved".
Historically 90% of vaccines that make it to human trails eventually fail to make it to market.
https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it

You may be right. I was only being hopeful.

[Wayfairers]

Interesting article on what happens with cruise ships when they aren’t active.....https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-worlds-cruise-ships-cant-sail-now-what-to-do-with-them/ar-BB16sXPP?ocid=sf

[getting older slowly]

 

1 hour ago, Wayfairers said:

Interesting article on what happens with cruise ships when they aren’t active.....https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-worlds-cruise-ships-cant-sail-now-what-to-do-with-them/ar-BB16sXPP?ocid=sf

 

Thanks for the link

If Interested  the layup guide gives to a real picture of what is involved laying up a ship ..

Lloyd’s Register’s layup guide,

 

Cheers Don

[Heidi13]

1 hour ago, Wayfairers said:

Interesting article on what happens with cruise ships when they aren’t active.....https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-worlds-cruise-ships-cant-sail-now-what-to-do-with-them/ar-BB16sXPP?ocid=sf

 

Unfortunately, your typical sensational article comprising numerous 1/2 truths. Noted the resources quoted by the author and none of them were knowledgeable Deck & Engineering Officers from pax ships or ship repair experts.

 

This was also posted on the Viking Board, where I left a few comments. Must admit I got a good laugh from his comment about ships dropping the anchor at sea. Deepest water I have safely anchored in is a little over 100'

[babs135]

Talking of vaccines, here is probably one of the most up to date comment:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8514805/Covid-19-vaccine-ready-year-trials-successful-leading-UK-scientist-reveals.html

 

As they say ;  'Hope springs eternal'

[Hlitner]

3 hours ago, babs135 said:

Talking of vaccines, here is probably one of the most up to date comment:

 

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8514805/Covid-19-vaccine-ready-year-trials-successful-leading-UK-scientist-reveals.html

 

As they say ;  'Hope springs eternal'

Folks see what they want to see.  The key to that entire article is the big "If" trials are successful.  They were saying the same thing about several HIV/AIDS vaccines 35 years ago!  What is left unsaid is that most vaccines that enter trials fail for various reasons.   Count me among those that desperately wants to see a vaccine (about 50% of the population will likely refuse any vaccine) but more then 35 years in the health business taught me to have a healthy degree of skepticism.

 

Hank

[TNcruising02]

On 7/12/2020 at 10:59 AM, Wayfairers said:

No surprise that there is a potential of exposure to Covid on a ferry, or an airplane, or anywhere that people are in close proximity to each other.  It isn’t just cruise ships.  Until there is a vaccine if you don’t want to catch Covid you don’t put yourself around a group of people.  

 

Covid is still such an unknown that any forecasts cannot be accurate.  We can all hope to be back to normal a year from now, but who knows what the reality will be.

I agree.  Right now the virus is raging, so avoiding public places as much as possible is a good idea.  I've been to the grocery store, pharmacy, my office, and home since the middle of March.  As much as I would love to take a vacation, it's just not a good idea.  I am glad that things are opening up and people are getting their jobs back.  Some people are careful and some are not.  That's just the way it is.  I don't feel my risk of contracting covid-19 is greater on a cruise ship than at an airport, on a plane, in an amusement park, at a concert, on the street in marches, or anywhere else that people are in close proximity.   

It feels like a hurricane is moving through the world and the only way to really stay safe is to sit tight out of the storm.