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Cruising outlook as presented to stock analysts by CCL Corp


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4 hours ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

 

Exactly......the airlines are starting to find out too that people are not wiling to travel and they are curtailing their optimistic schedules and getting ready to let go of tens of  thousands of employees.  It has been pointed out too by other business leaders  that companies that say their Covid - 19 vaccine trials are moving to the next step have significant increases in their stock prices.  Hope does sell and does make money sometimes!!

When it comes to the companies working on Vaccines, Moderna is probably the only one that fits when it comes to a significant increase in stock price (its a small company and any success may have a difference) as far as the majors such as AstraZeneca, Merck, Pfizer there is not much movement in stock price, nor should their be, because it is really not a money making product for them. 

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2 hours ago, HaveWeMetYet said:

Fridays price increase was similar across all travel stocks.  For cruise companies it was due to the optimistic presentation to stock analysts by CCL Corp. The about 10% increase in cruise stock prices was mopre than other travel related stocks.


The airlines are fixing to layoff a ton of people in October. The bailout money extension ends October 1st.
 

In a memo to employees, the Chicago-based airline (United) said 36,000 employees, or 45% of its front-line workers in the USA and more than a third of its overall workforce of 95,000, face layoffs on or around Oct. 1.  Right. Without the bailout money, they would have been these layoffs several months ago, The bailout money was intended to keep the unemployment numbers down.

 

 

 

 

 

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On 7/10/2020 at 5:01 PM, caribill said:

 

That bothered me also.

I think you are looking for something that wasn't there.  Is is possible that no one can be in serious discussion yet while we still are witnessing large amounts of possible new cases and the cruise lines are still working on details as to how to protect against cases on board.

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In a previous interview with CNBC; the Carnival CEO said; "we will do whatever the CDC needs to get back to cruising that is both safe for our crews and passengers."   So maybe by not having discussions with the CDC; he means they are still waiting for them to set up guidelines for all companies to start back up.

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5 hours ago, Grego said:

I think you are looking for something that wasn't there.  Is is possible that no one can be in serious discussion yet while we still are witnessing large amounts of possible new cases and the cruise lines are still working on details as to how to protect against cases on board.

 

4 hours ago, AF-1 said:

In a previous interview with CNBC; the Carnival CEO said; "we will do whatever the CDC needs to get back to cruising that is both safe for our crews and passengers."   So maybe by not having discussions with the CDC; he means they are still waiting for them to set up guidelines for all companies to start back up.

Anything is possible.  That said,  the fact that they are not yet in serious discussions, for whatever reason, doesn't bode well for a timely resumption of cruising in the US.

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On 7/10/2020 at 10:58 PM, caribill said:

 

Actually, it was not part of the main presentation but came out as a response to a question during the Q&A period.

I read that statement as "holding off" their discussions with the CDC.  While they are not sailing it's wise to watch the development of the pandemic, and what the CDC recommends.  Those recommedations are based on current events and pandemic status.  I wouldn't want to second-guess what I will do in this situation several months in advance, either.

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6 hours ago, AF-1 said:

In a previous interview with CNBC; the Carnival CEO said; "we will do whatever the CDC needs to get back to cruising that is both safe for our crews and passengers."   So maybe by not having discussions with the CDC; he means they are still waiting for them to set up guidelines for all companies to start back up.

The CDC provided the areas that the cruise lines need to address in their plans, which the CDC will then review.  They had also referred to the plan previously provided by the CLIA and indicated where more depth was necessary.  At this stage it is up to the cruise lines to develop and provide their plans for approval.  Usually when one is working with a regulatory agency there will be discussions and questions as the plans are being developed, but the CDC will not provide a detailed this is what the cruise lines must do.

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51 minutes ago, pcur said:

I read that statement as "holding off" their discussions with the CDC.  While they are not sailing it's wise to watch the development of the pandemic, and what the CDC recommends.  Those recommedations are based on current events and pandemic status.  I wouldn't want to second-guess what I will do in this situation several months in advance, either.

 

The EU has issued a set of guidelines for each country to work with in order to restart cruising. The CDC has not done anything close to this yet.

 

Once guidelines are issued by the CDC, it will take months for the cruise lines to put them into effect. Waiting months to issue these guidelines means an even longer time until they can be implemented.

 

It is like the reopening of the schools. You can't wait until September to issue guidelines on how to open schools in September.

 

The cruise lines in the USA have paused cruises until the end of September. Without CDC guidelines now, cruises will not be able to resume then.

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1 minute ago, caribill said:

 

The EU has issued a set of guidelines for each country to work with in order to restart cruising. The CDC has not done anything close to this yet.

 

Once guidelines are issued by the CDC, it will take months for the cruise lines to put them into effect. Waiting months to issue these guidelines means an even longer time until they can be implemented.

 

It is like the reopening of the schools. You can't wait until September to issue guidelines on how to open schools in September.

 

The cruise lines in the USA have paused cruises until the end of September. Without CDC guidelines now, cruises will not be able to resume then.

 

Makes a lot of sense, and I wonder if the CDC is doing this deliberately.  Considering the mess we are in right now with areas of the US opening too soon, maybe the CDC is trying to slow down the cruise industry so the same thing doesn't happen again.  

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10 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

The EU has issued a set of guidelines for each country to work with in order to restart cruising. The CDC has not done anything close to this yet.

 

Once guidelines are issued by the CDC, it will take months for the cruise lines to put them into effect. Waiting months to issue these guidelines means an even longer time until they can be implemented.

 

It is like the reopening of the schools. You can't wait until September to issue guidelines on how to open schools in September.

 

The cruise lines in the USA have paused cruises until the end of September. Without CDC guidelines now, cruises will not be able to resume then.

This is the CDC guidelines for the plan the cruise lines need to develop.  It was part of the do not sail order. The ball is and has been in the cruise lines court.

 

3. An appropriate plan is one that adequately prevents, mitigates, and responds to the spread of COVID-19 on board cruise ships and that, at a minimum, must address the following elements: 

 

a. Onboard surveillance of passengers and crew with acute respiratory illnesses, influenza-like illnesses, pneumonia, and COVID-19, including reporting to HHS/CDC on a weekly basis on overall case counts, methods of testing, and number of persons requiring hospitalization or medical evacuation;

 

b. Reports on the number of persons onboard the cruise ship and any increase in the numbers of persons with COVID-19 made to HHS/CDC and USCG on a daily basis for as long as the cruise ship is within waters subject to the jurisdiction of the United States.

 

c. Onboard monitoring of passengers and crew through temperature checks and medical screening, including addressing frequency of monitoring and screening;

 

d. Training of all crew on COVID-19 prevention, mitigation, and response activities;

 

e. Protocols for any COVID-19 testing, including details relating to the shore-side transport, administration, and operationalization of laboratory work if onboard laboratory work is not feasible;

 

f. Onboard isolation, quarantine, and social distancing protocols to minimize the risk of transmission and spread of COVID-19;

 

g. Onboard medical staffing, including number and type of staff, and equipment in sufficient quantity to provide a hospital level of care (e.g., ventilators, facemasks, personal protective equipment) for the infected without the need for hospitalization onshore;

 

h. An outbreak management and response plan to provision and assist an affected cruise ship that relies on industry resources, e.g., mobilization of additional cruise ships or other vessels to act as “hospital” ship for the infected, “quarantine” ship for the exposed, and “residential” ship for those providing care and treatment, including the ability to transport individuals between ships as needed;

 

i. Categorization of affected individuals into risk categories with clear stepwise approaches for care and management of each category;

 

j. A medical care plan addressing onboard care versus evacuation to on-shore hospitals for critically ill individuals, specifying how availability of beds for critically ill at local hospitals will be determined in advance and how the cruise ship operator will ensure acceptance at local medical facilities to treat the critically ill in a manner that limits the burden on Federal, State, and local resources and avoids, to the greatest extent possible, medivac situations. If medical evacuation is necessary arrangements for evacuation must be made with commercial resources (e.g., ship tender, chartered standby vessel, chartered airlift) and arrangements made with a designated medical facility that has agreed to accept such evacuees. All medical evacuation plans must be coordinated with the U.S. Coast Guard;

 

k. Detailed logistical planning for evacuating and repatriating, both U.S. citizens and foreign nationals, to their respective communities and home countries via foreign government or industry-chartered private transport and flights, including the steps the cruise ship operator will take to ensure those involved in the transport are not exposed; (the use of commercial flights to evacuate or repatriate individuals, both within or from the United States, is prohibited);

 

l. The projected logistical and resource impact on State and local government and public health authorities and steps taken to minimize the impact and engage with these authorities; all plans must provide for industry/cruise line management of suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 without resource burden on Federal, State, or local governments;

 

m. Plan execution in all U.S. geographical areas—all plans must be capable of being executed anywhere in international, interstate, or intrastate waterways subject to the jurisdiction of the United States; and

 

n. Cleaning and disinfection protocols for affected cruise ships.

 

4. An appropriate plan shall be designed to minimize, to the greatest extent possible, any impact on U.S. government operations or the operations Start Printed Page 21008of any State or local government, or the U.S. healthcare system.

 

5. The cruise ship operator shall further ensure that the plan is consistent with the most current CDC recommendations and guidance for any public health actions related to COVID-19. Where appropriate, a cruise ship operator may coordinate the development, implementation, and operationalization of a plan with other cruise ship operators, including an industry trade group.

 

 

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The do not sail order also included information concerning plans already received from CLIA

 

Critical Need for Further Cooperation and Response Planning

CDC and other Federal agencies engaged with CLIA representatives in early March. On March 13, 2020, CLIA and their associated members announced that all member cruise lines would voluntarily suspend cruise ship operations from U.S. ports of call for 30 days as public health officials and the Federal government continue to address COVID-19. Several cruise lines followed CLIA's example and similarly voluntarily suspended operations.

CLIA also drafted a response plan, “On Course: Cruise Industry COVID-19 Response and Protocols” (hereinafter, “On Course”). The plan proposed “industry management of suspected or confirmed cases of COVID-19 without burden on the U.S. government.” [7] CLIA stated that it could implement this plan within 7 days.[8] In response to a suspected or confirmed case of COVID-19, “industry would be responsible for transporting the [exposed or infected] individuals in appropriate buses, cars, or ambulances.” [9] Furthermore, CLIA averred that, “contracts for predesignated facilities though Global Rescue [a firm with purported experience and expertise in mass medical incidents] [would] receive COVID-19 patients, including arrangements [that] will be executed following plan approval.” [10] CLIA further stated that it had planned for “multiple redundancies” in its response efforts. Specifically, “CLIA commits to making five ships available for temporary housing purposes. They would be tasked with sailing to any affected ship and taking affected guests and crew aboard for the self-isolation period.” [11]

 

 

On April 3, 2020, CLIA drafted a new response plan, “Framework: For Cruise Industry Care of Crew and other Persons on Board while Ships Remain Idle during the Global COVID-19 Pandemic” (hereinafter, “Framework”). The Framework plan must go further to reduce industry reliance on government and shoreside hospital resources. For example, while the Framework states that a ship will maintain its medical staff, it must provide further details of how the industry will provide for the acute care needs of the critically ill. The Framework must also address industry assistance to COVID-19 affected cruise ships by deploying additional ships for cohort separation of those who are exposed, infected, and in need of hospitalization. Furthermore, laboratory sampling and testing, onboard mitigation and prevention strategies, disinfection protocols, personal protective equipment, repatriation of foreign nationals, and onshore transportation, including through contract medivac helicopter, must be addressed in further detail, including how the industry proposes to acquire, staff, and operationalize this plan, with minimal burden on Federal, State, or local government entities or the healthcare system.

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From this line

 

The cruise ship operator shall further ensure that the plan is consistent with the most current CDC recommendations and guidance for any public health actions related to COVID-19

 

You also get the instruction that the cruise line plan should be consistent with other CDC recommendations such as those in this area on the CDC web site

 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/

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15 hours ago, npcl said:

When it comes to the companies working on Vaccines, Moderna is probably the only one that fits when it comes to a significant increase in stock price (its a small company and any success may have a difference) as far as the majors such as AstraZeneca, Merck, Pfizer there is not much movement in stock price, nor should their be, because it is really not a money making product for them. 

 

A good read on WSJ about Moderna:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-moderna-the-covid-vaccine-front-runner-with-no-track-record-and-an-unsparing-ceo-11593615205

 

What is the world's track record with virus vaccines?   Why would we expect it to be different this time?

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11 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

A good read on WSJ about Moderna:  https://www.wsj.com/articles/inside-moderna-the-covid-vaccine-front-runner-with-no-track-record-and-an-unsparing-ceo-11593615205

 

What is the world's track record with virus vaccines?   Why would we expect it to be different this time?

Actually pretty good

 

Successful vaccines against virus

 

Smallpox

Polio

measles

mumps

rubella

rotovirus

yellow fever

chickenpox

shingles

Hep A

Hep B

Flu

HPV

 

There is also a vaccine for Dengue, but its use is extremely limited (only to those that had previously had Dengue, otherwise it acts like a first infection and with Dengue the second infection is often worse then that first).

 

We would have probably had vaccines for both MERS and SARS except for two major problems.  1. SARS vanished before the drug candidates could be tested.  No illness, no way to test, unless you want to take a less than ethical approach of infecting people. 2. MERS is still around, but it is so infrequent that that last paper I read indicated that it would need a clinical trial size of 100,000 people in the group that most frequently gets it (those working with camels in the middle east).  As such a clinical trial to prove efficacy is not practical.

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1 hour ago, npcl said:

This is the CDC guidelines for the plan the cruise lines need to develop.  It was part of the do not sail order. The ball is and has been in the cruise lines court.

 

 

 

Not working seriously yet with the CDC is not just my take on what Carnival Corp told the analysts. From a report by Stone Fox Capital about what CCL Corp said:

 

"The sector isn't even working with the CDC on restart plans."

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26 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

What is the world's track record with virus vaccines?   Why would we expect it to be different this time?

 

3 minutes ago, npcl said:

Actually pretty good

 

Successful vaccines against virus

 

Smallpox

Polio

measles

mumps

rubella

rotovirus

yellow fever

chickenpox

shingles

Hep A

Hep B

Flu

HPV

 

 

The difference is that this time they are trying to get an effective and safe vaccine ready for the public in less than a year.

 

No previous vaccine made it to that point in less than four years, much of which is field testing in humans.

 

There is, for example,  no way a vaccine just entering field trials now can be proved safe for a soon-to-be-pregnant woman and her future baby in just 6 months.

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26 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

Not working seriously yet with the CDC is not just my take on what Carnival Corp told the analysts. From a report by Stone Fox Capital about what CCL Corp said:

 

"The sector isn't even working with the CDC on restart plans."

The sector not working with the CDC is not the same as what you implied earlier that they were waiting for guidance from the CDC before developing their plans.

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25 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

 

The difference is that this time they are trying to get an effective and safe vaccine ready for the public in less than a year.

 

No previous vaccine made it to that point in less than four years, much of which is field testing in humans.

 

There is, for example,  no way a vaccine just entering field trials now can be proved safe for a soon-to-be-pregnant woman and her future baby in just 6 months.

There is a way that is handled as I believe we discussed before.  If a group cannot be adequately tested for safety.  The label will reflect that, and that it should not be used for that group.  There will then be additional studies conducted to test safety in that group.  Actually a fairly normal part of drug development.  Usually referred to as phase 4 or post approval trials.

 

As a result you can approval in those groups that can be safely tested and efficacy demonstrated.  The vaccine can be released and used.  Those that are excluded at launch still get benefit due to the immunity in those that can safely receive the vaccine.

 

Actually the clinical trials take about the same amount of time.  The difference is everything else that has gotten accelerated.  Usually a lot more time in pre-clinical.  Far more time in getting regulatory approval for phase I trials in healthy volunteers, then a wait after the results to get phase II approval.  Longer time to accrue the trial participants because not much urgency.  Then another wait for approval after all of the phase 2 results, then phase three with fairly lengthy time to get all of the trial participants recruited.

 

The size and length of the phase III is driven by statistics and the science to demonstrate the safety and efficacy so not much change in the trial itself.

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For anyone that is interested the following is a link to an FDA document Best Practices for Communication between IND Sponsors and the FDA During Drug Development. Page 13 discussed the meeting requirements during the various clinical trail stages.

 

Best Practices for Communication Between IND Sponsors and FDA During Drug Development Guidance for Industry and Review Staff Good Review Practice

 

https://www.fda.gov/media/94850/download

These milestone meetings under PDUFA include pre-IND, end-of-phase 1 (EOP1), end-of-phase 2 (EOP2), and pre-NDA/BLA meetings.

 

It also gives a good idea why much of the development time is taken up by the process of getting info, reviewing the info, discussing with FDA, at each step.  Normally all of that takes considerable time.  Now under COVID those regulatory steps are getting compressed as never before.

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Major problem is the US government has not been serious about stopping the transmission of the virus.  Fact - not a "political" statement.  The are no real plans to slow down the spread, no real action.  Florida yesterday recorded 15,300 new cases of COVID-19.  Recorded, which implies the "real" numbers are much higher.  The virus is spiking and we haven't hit the Fall yet when another waves is expected.  Cruise ports (Florida especially, but also Texas and Louisiana) are the centers of infection increases.  Airlines, for those who must travel to get to a cruise port, are no better off.  The video of the United passengers is telling: United boarded back to front, but on disembarking everyone stood up and crunched together.  Changing herd behavior is difficult.  Changing behaviors on cruises will also be difficult.

 

Way too much fluff in the stock report.  No mention of how or what the cost would be to sail under social distancing guidelines as those cruise line restarting in Europe and Asia are requiring.  No mention of the added cost to pay back the monies now being borrowed and what that will do to prices and break-even criteria.  No mention of the added costs to apply any of the expected criteria needed to sail again, to included added crew and medical staff, not to mention any structure changes to traffic flow.  It was as if on restart will be will back fully to pre-Covid processes and protocols.  That will not be the case even in the wildest of imaginations.  Additionally, no, mention of port protocols which will impact cruising.

 

The cruise lines, and we as cruise passengers, need to be realistic.  This will not be easy nor inexpensive.  Cruising will cost more.  Ship protocols will be different.  Safety and security will be paramount for any successful return to cruising. 

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1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Major problem is the US government has not been serious about stopping the transmission of the virus.  Fact - not a "political" statement.  The are no real plans to slow down the spread, no real action.  Florida yesterday recorded 15,300 new cases of COVID-19.  Recorded, which implies the "real" numbers are much higher.  The virus is spiking and we haven't hit the Fall yet when another waves is expected.  Cruise ports (Florida especially, but also Texas and Louisiana) are the centers of infection increases.  Airlines, for those who must travel to get to a cruise port, are no better off.  The video of the United passengers is telling: United boarded back to front, but on disembarking everyone stood up and crunched together.  Changing herd behavior is difficult.  Changing behaviors on cruises will also be difficult.

 

Way too much fluff in the stock report.  No mention of how or what the cost would be to sail under social distancing guidelines as those cruise line restarting in Europe and Asia are requiring.  No mention of the added cost to pay back the monies now being borrowed and what that will do to prices and break-even criteria.  No mention of the added costs to apply any of the expected criteria needed to sail again, to included added crew and medical staff, not to mention any structure changes to traffic flow.  It was as if on restart will be will back fully to pre-Covid processes and protocols.  That will not be the case even in the wildest of imaginations.  Additionally, no, mention of port protocols which will impact cruising.

 

The cruise lines, and we as cruise passengers, need to be realistic.  This will not be easy nor inexpensive.  Cruising will cost more.  Ship protocols will be different.  Safety and security will be paramount for any successful return to cruising. 

Unfortunately the Feds can make recommendations to and advise the states, but they can not dictate to the states when it comes to health policy. They could potential block movement between states, if it is viewed that insufficient local action is being taken.

 

The only real thing that the feds could have done is to provide a consistent set of recommendations.  But it would still be up to the states if they wished to follow them or not.

 

I suspect the primary reason that the cruise lines have not initiated discussions about their plans is because they really do not have a solution at this time. 

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4 hours ago, caribill said:

 

 

The difference is that this time they are trying to get an effective and safe vaccine ready for the public in less than a year.

 

No previous vaccine made it to that point in less than four years, much of which is field testing in humans.

 

There is, for example,  no way a vaccine just entering field trials now can be proved safe for a soon-to-be-pregnant woman and her future baby in just 6 months.

 

And ho

4 hours ago, npcl said:

Actually pretty good

 

Successful vaccines against virus

 

Smallpox

Polio

measles

mumps

rubella

rotovirus

yellow fever

chickenpox

shingles

Hep A

Hep B

Flu

HPV

 

There is also a vaccine for Dengue, but its use is extremely limited (only to those that had previously had Dengue, otherwise it acts like a first infection and with Dengue the second infection is often worse then that first).

 

We would have probably had vaccines for both MERS and SARS except for two major problems.  1. SARS vanished before the drug candidates could be tested.  No illness, no way to test, unless you want to take a less than ethical approach of infecting people. 2. MERS is still around, but it is so infrequent that that last paper I read indicated that it would need a clinical trial size of 100,000 people in the group that most frequently gets it (those working with camels in the middle east).  As such a clinical trial to prove efficacy is not practical.

 

Why don't you also tell me how long it took ?  and how are we going here, rush rush rush, how does that usually work out?

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