What happens if there's no vaccine?

[MISTER 67]

Hate to be a party pooper but I'm a little depressed with what's going on with the virus right now. There are idiots in the country who are having Covid Parties with bets and a pool that whoever gets the virus first wins the pool. Just read an article about a 30 year old who went to a Covid Hoax party last week  and he died today and said this 30 seconds before he died, "I guess it isn't a hoax''.

So with all this craziness around us what's going to happen if they can't come up with a vaccine? Will this virus eventually die out and go away on it's own or are we stuck with it for who knows how long.

This brings us to crusing, DW and I need a cruise so bad right now but if this thing lingers on I think we will be seeing some of the lines closing up shop, a company can last for only so long without revenue. Some of us may decide never to set on board a ship again which could also hurt the lines, we aren't in that category.

 I'm a believer and have never prayed like I have been the last few months for this virus to somehow leave us and  life on the planet to get somewhat back to normal as far as that goes. Your thoughts?

[vinfan]

It's so hard to reconcile what I fear is reality with our hopes. With ships being scrapped and rules imposed by EU (and probably others), it is doubtful cruising will be as we knew and loved it. At least for a long time.

[jimmy2x]

Nobody can answer your question. Too many what ifs.  Can only answer for us. No vaccine, no cruise. 

[iancal]

I believe in always moving forward and being positive.  Glass half full.

 

I am also a believer in science and in the ability our best and brightest to solve this riddle.

 

I also think that the absence of cruising is primarily a disaster for those whose income depends on the cruise industry and the spin offs.   For cruisers, and we are occasional cruisers, we do not have a lot of sympathy.   99 percent our sympathy is with those infected with covid or those adversely financially impacted.  The rest of us really do not have any concerns that compare to these.

[kazu]

In theory, if everyone wore a mask and if the test, contact and quarantine were put in place everywhere as it was with SARS, the virus would theoretically die out.

Sadly, that is unlikely all over the world so unless the virus “dies”, it will probably be with us in parts of the world.  So, even if one country becomes virus free as soon as they permit travel, it could well be back.

 

A vaccine is our best chance but then we have to worry about the “anti-vaccine people”.  If not enough people get the vaccine, we won’t have herd immunity.

 

No one has the answer sadly.

[rkacruiser]

20 minutes ago, iancal said:

Glass half full.

 

That has been my view during my lifetime.  As to future travels/cruising, due to my age and physical issues, the glass is half empty.  The question I am, and I suspect, I will be wrestling with in the near future is "how much risk are you willing to take in order to do one more trip, one more cruise, etc."

 

It is not positively psychologically helpful for me to realize "my glass has suddenly become half empty".

[Sir PMP]

49 minutes ago, jimmy2x said:

Nobody can answer your question. Too many what ifs.  Can only answer for us. No vaccine, no cruise. 

There has never been a vaccine for HIV, but we pills to keep it under control, that will happen here too, maybe no vaccine, but therapeutics to keep you from getting it or get you back healthy again in a few days.

[rafinmd]

I put more stock in an effective treatment than in a vaccine.

 

Roy

[AlanF65]

There are over 12 vaccines being worked on now out of over 100 in concept, most projections have  vaccine by end of year to next summer. The science for this vaccine is on a scale and methodology that is changed by both the amount of money invested by governments that is basically eliminating the risk for the developers and the ramp up for manufacturing (lines are being built to produce and be ready to eliminate ramp up time). The amount of money allocated is close to 15 billion of public money being spent just on vaccine around the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine

 

 

This is an interesting read,

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

 

A-

 

Edit,

Also with all these people getting infected, herd immunity may start to develop if it continues on without intervention.

 

Edited July 11, 2020 by AlanF65

[KirkNC]

5 minutes ago, rafinmd said:

I put more stock in an effective treatment than in a vaccine.

 

Roy

I agree.  I think the vaccine is going to disappoint.  Even of one is developed, tested, safe, effective, manufactured and distributed (some think by the end of the year 🙄), I have seen to separate surveys where between 20-30% say they won't get vaccinated .

[iancal]

We certainly do not expect a widely available, proven  solution to this challenge, vaccine or script, for at least six to nine months at the earliest.  Possibly even longer.    Booking a cruise or even shopping for a cruise is the furthest thing from our minds at present.    No use whining or complaining about it.  Our thoughts have moved on to what we can safely  do in the interim vis a vis travel. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by iancal

[kelleherdl]

14 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

Even of one is developed, tested, safe, effective, manufactured and distributed (some think by the end of the year 🙄), I have seen to separate surveys where between 20-30% say they won't get vaccinated .

But those that do get vaccinated are protected and may confidently travel.  Given the investment, I think it PROBABLE there will be ar least 1 very good hit.  Previous recent vaccine efforts, SARS, Ebola, MErs did not have near this level of effort. Personally, I get my flu vaccine yearly, even though they are not 100% effective. 

Edited July 12, 2020 by kelleherdl

[KirkNC]

3 minutes ago, kelleherdl said:

But those that do get vaccinated are protected and may confidently travel.  Personally, I get my flu vaccine yearly, even though they are not 100% effective. 

The effectiveness will probably be in the neighborhood of 50-70% (based on other flu vaccines).  Thats not bullet proof by any stretch.  Hopefully, like other vaccines, you would have a milder form of the virus if you were vaccinated but a vaccine will not ensure 100% that a ship will not have the virus.  

 

The fall flu vaccine is considered acceptable if it is 30% effective.  

Edited July 12, 2020 by KirkNC

[iancal]

We really  do not understand all the knashing of teeth and wailing that has gone on.   Sure people are disappointed but  It is what it is.  Get over it, and move forward. 

 

The rest of the world has much larger problems than not being able to take a cruise.

Edited July 12, 2020 by iancal

[Hflors]

8 hours ago, iancal said:

We really  do not understand all the knashing of teeth and wailing that has gone on.   Sure people are disappointed but  It is what it is.  Get over it, and move forward. 

 

The rest of the world has much larger problems than not being able to take a cruise.

Maybe, but this is why we come here is to talk about cruising.  In lieu of not being able to cruise now some of us want to vent on how we feel about not being able to do it.  Exchanging ideas and listening to others opinions with people who have simular interests I think is a good thing.  It keeps us all in "the same boat" sort of thing.  Kindness and a little empathy goes a long way.

As for the "rest of the world" and their problems that is for a different message board...

Edited July 12, 2020 by Hflors

[Roz]

10 hours ago, iancal said:

Get over it, and move forward. 

 

Problem is, I can't move forward.  My frustration extends beyond not being able to cruise.  My 50th HS reunion scheduled for next month was canceled.  Our annual family get together in our hometown is a no go.  I work at home by myself every day, isolated from my co-workers.  I just became a great aunt, and can't see the baby or help his mother whose a first time mom and struggling.  No social life whatsoever.  

 

If no vaccine is developed, it will forever change the way the world works, shops, travels, and interacts. 

[RocketMan275]

13 hours ago, MISTER 67 said:

There are idiots in the country who are having Covid Parties with bets and a pool that whoever gets the virus first wins the pool. 

Those "idiots" and their covid parties may be illuminating the forward.  Sure, a vaccine is preferred, but a covid party is just another way to get inoculated and achieving herd immunity.

[ontheweb]

11 hours ago, AlanF65 said:

There are over 12 vaccines being worked on now out of over 100 in concept, most projections have  vaccine by end of year to next summer. The science for this vaccine is on a scale and methodology that is changed by both the amount of money invested by governments that is basically eliminating the risk for the developers and the ramp up for manufacturing (lines are being built to produce and be ready to eliminate ramp up time). The amount of money allocated is close to 15 billion of public money being spent just on vaccine around the world. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_vaccine

 

 

This is an interesting read,

https://www.wired.com/story/coronavirus-interview-larry-brilliant-smallpox-epidemiologist/

 

A-

 

Edit,

Also with all these people getting infected, herd immunity may start to develop if it continues on without intervention.

 

It unfortunately does not seem feasible for herd immunity to be achieved. At least that seems to be the conclusion of a recent study completed in Spain.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

[paganwoman]

Also don't forget those of us who, for one reason or another, can not get vaccinated even if there was one. I have never had vaccines as a child due to severe reaction to one at 2 years old. So I have never had the chicken pox, mumps and so on. Now I am on immunosuppressants so obviously can not start getting them now. There will have to be regulations regarding those who can get it (and hopefully protect us which can not have the vaccine) and those of us who can't. I have two cruises booked for next year and if they sail I will be on both of them. Time will tell.

[Roz]

@ontheweb, thank you for posting the link to the study.  I was going to post it but you beat me to it.  There's a lot of talk about herd immunity in these forums, but this virus may be behaving differently.  It will be interesting to see the results if a similar study is conducted in another hard hit country like Italy, Brazil, or the US.

[voyageur9]

There's no evidence (yet) that herd immunity is lasting. In fact, there's considerable debate about whether even individual immunity; i.e. the presence of antibodies lasts more than a few weeks or months.

 

Perhaps of greater relevance to HAL's future is this ugly truth.

 

In the absence of a 100% vaccine and a HAL requirement that 100% of its passengers are vaccinated before being allowed on board, the stark reality remains that HAL's demographic, both in terms of age and the evident prevalence of pre-existing conditions probably make it the least likely of all Carnival brands to resume sailing soon.

 

 

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Those "idiots" and their covid parties may be illuminating the forward.  Sure, a vaccine is preferred, but a covid party is just another way to get inoculated and achieving herd immunity.

 

At what cost, though?  I hope you are just stirring the pot and are not serious.

 

I mean, we could also say that the "way forward" to deal with our increasing population is to set up firing squads for anyone over 70.  Or maybe forced sterilization.

 

I, for one, am going to hold out hope for a better solution than one that would lead to such excess mortality. 

 

 

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

It unfortunately does not seem feasible for herd immunity to be achieved. At least that seems to be the conclusion of a recent study completed in Spain.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

 

Yes. Unfortunately the particular news report you've cited isn't as clear as it should be. If you read it, you are almost left with the impression that the only reason herd immunity isn't being achieved in Spain is that not enough people have yet been exposed. The truth, if you read the original publication of the study in The Lancet is a bit different. In short (from a better-written summary):

 

"Immunity can be incomplete, it can be transitory, it can last for just a short time and then disappear," Raquel Yotti, the director of Spain's Carlos III Health Institute, which helped conduct the study, said. Other researchers said the study corroborated findings elsewhere that immunity to the virus might not be long-lasting in people who develop only mild or no symptoms.

 

So....if someone were to follow through on the extremely foolish idea of having COVID exposure parties, the only thing likely to be achieved would be illness and very short-term immunity in some (leaving them still vulnerable to future infection) or potentially serious disease leading to hospitalization and possible death in others.

 

Not a really great plan, IMHO.

 

 

[geocruiser]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Those "idiots" and their covid parties may be illuminating the forward.  Sure, a vaccine is preferred, but a covid party is just another way to get inoculated and achieving herd immunity.

Result of a Covid party

 

https://abcnews.go.com/US/30-year-man-dies-attending-covid-party-thinking/story?id=71731414

[Tampa Girl]

1 hour ago, RocketMan275 said:

Those "idiots" and their covid parties may be illuminating the forward.  Sure, a vaccine is preferred, but a covid party is just another way to get inoculated and achieving herd immunity.

 

That assumes that there will be herd immunity from this virus.  I don't believe that such  has been established.  There is no herd immunity from a cold, and this virus has some of the same characteristics.