What happens if there's no vaccine?

[Stateroom_Sailor]

This is Plan B for our backyards:

 

 

[kenphy]

17 hours ago, kazu said:

In theory, if everyone wore a mask and if the test, contact and quarantine were put in place everywhere as it was with SARS, the virus would theoretically die out.

Sadly, that is unlikely all over the world so unless the virus “dies”, it will probably be with us in parts of the world.  So, even if one country becomes virus free as soon as they permit travel, it could well be back.

 

A vaccine is our best chance but then we have to worry about the “anti-vaccine people”.  If not enough people get the vaccine, we won’t have herd immunity.

 

No one has the answer sadly.

Unfortunately, no one seems to be talking about if any of the proposed vaccines are "live virus" or "killed virus."   No one with an autoimmune disease can have a live virus vaccine, so even then, my husband won't be able to take it.  It was years before he could get the shingles vaccine because it was live.   This may be the reason no matter what that we could not cruise again, and just when we are able to cruise much more often!   But lots of things need to come together before any of us cruise, so we shall just try to be patient.

[puppycanducruise]

37 minutes ago, Tudy said:

 

 

I believe our best hope is defining a better treatment regimen. We have made several advances in this area and more are coming. Secondly, I have read some articles that indicate that Covid 19 may be weakening in virulence. This would also be very good news, if indeed that does prove true.

 

I freely admit that I know just enough to be stupid, as is the case with most of the strongly opinionated among us. 🙂

 

This is my feeling as well.  There is so much we do not know about this virus.  We may never get a safe vaccine.  But for now, I will continue to avoid crowds, wear a mask and wash my hands.  Remain calm and be kind.

[Mary229]

If I may point out we never developed a vaccine nor cure or treatment for the 1918 virus.  What happened to it is anyone's guess. This virus may follow a similar path.  It is something I always keep in the back of my mind so that my hope is not solely based on what scientists can or cannot do

[kazu]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

If I may point out we never developed a vaccine nor cure or treatment for the 1918 virus.  What happened to it is anyone's guess. This virus may follow a similar path.  It is something I always keep in the back of my mind so that my hope is not solely based on what scientists can or cannot do

 

Good point.  After the 2nd wave and in some countries the 3rd wave, many places shut down, used social distancing, closed schools, forbid mass gatherings, and many countries employed masks, etc.

 

I remember my grandfather talking about it and children were not allowed to play with others.  He and my grandmother and my mother and sister & relatives had to work the farms without help as they couldn’t risk infection.  It was a scary time indeed.

When I look back and see what my grandparents and parents and aunt went through - Spanish flu, WWII with severe rationing on flour, sugar and so many other things and the Great Depression, we have it pretty easy compared to them. 

We need to show the same fortitude that our parents and grandparents did and work together to keep each other safe. 

 

 

[AncientWanderer]

Oh, ye of little faith...

 

The science of 1918 was nothing like the science of now.  AND....with the astronomical amounts of money being lost due to this virus, my bet is on a vaccine much sooner, rather than later.  These multinational corporations are throwing down hard on the research.  It'll come!  Follow the money!

 

 

[MISTER 67]

16 minutes ago, kazu said:

 

Good point.  After the 2nd wave and in some countries the 3rd wave, many places shut down, used social distancing, closed schools, forbid mass gatherings, and many countries employed masks, etc.

 

I remember my grandfather talking about it and children were not allowed to play with others.  He and my grandmother and my mother and sister & relatives had to work the farms without help as they couldn’t risk infection.  It was a scary time indeed.

When I look back and see what my grandparents and parents and aunt went through - Spanish flu, WWII with severe rationing on flour, sugar and so many other things and the Great Depression, we have it pretty easy compared to them. 

We need to show the same fortitude that our parents and grandparents did and work together to keep each other safe. 

 

 

Unfortunately, people aren't doing safe things. Yesterday in France a bus driver asked people to wear their masks while on the bus, 4 of them disagreed and dragged the driver off the bus and proceeded to beat him to death. Millions refuse to take the virus seriously and refuse to wear masks and social distance.

2020 is a different time and place than 1918 when things were much more civil.

[npcl]

2 hours ago, kenphy said:

Unfortunately, no one seems to be talking about if any of the proposed vaccines are "live virus" or "killed virus."   No one with an autoimmune disease can have a live virus vaccine, so even then, my husband won't be able to take it.  It was years before he could get the shingles vaccine because it was live.   This may be the reason no matter what that we could not cruise again, and just when we are able to cruise much more often!   But lots of things need to come together before any of us cruise, so we shall just try to be patient.

There are several different types and technologies in play in vaccine development for COVID-19.  Pretty mcuh all vaccine technologies are is play.

 

DNA

Takis/Applied DNA Sciences/Evvivax

Zydus Cadila

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Phase 1 (NCT04336410. opens in new tab)

 

Inactivated 

Sinovac, Phase 1 (NCT04352608. opens in new tab)

Beijing Institute of Biological Sciences/Wuhan Institute of Biological Sciences, Phase 1 (ChiCTR2000031809)

 

Live attenuated 

Codagenix/Serum Institute of India

 

Nonreplicating vector

GeoVax/BravoVax

Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies

Altimmune

Greffex

Vaxart

ExpresS2ion

CanSino Biologics, Phases 1 and 2 (ChiCTR2000030906 and ChiCTR2000031781)

University of Oxford/AstraZeneca, Phase 1/2 (NCT04324606. opens in new tab)

Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute, Phase 1/2
(NCT04276896. opens in new tab)

 

Protein subunit

WRAIR/U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases

Clover Biopharmaceuticals Inc/GSK

Vaxil Bio

AJ Vaccines

Genrex/EpiVax/University of Georgia

Sanofi Pasteur

Novavax

Heat Biologics/University of Miami

University of Queensland/GSK/ Baylor College of Medicine iBio/CC-Pharming

 

Replicating viral 

Zydus Cadila

Institut Pasteur/Themis

Tonix Pharma/Southern Research

 

RNA

Fudan University/Shanghai JiaoTong University/RNACure Biopharma

China CDC/Tongji University/Stermina

Arcturus/Duke-NUS

Imperial College London Curevac

Moderna/NIAID (NCT04283461. opens in new tab)

BioNTech/Pfizer, Phase 1/2 (NCT04368728. opens in new tab)

ImmunoPrecise

MIGAL Galilee Research Institute

Doherty Institute

Tulane University

 

[npcl]

4 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Then there is no hope for a vaccine either.

A vaccine is just another way to achieve herd immunity.

Not necessarily.  Natural immunity from most of the milder Corona virus types last about a year or so.  If an vaccine was able to get similar results then one can get a successful vaccine, just one that would require annual boosters. Where as I doubt many are going to want to go through COVID reinfection each year for natural herd immunity.

 

Also keep in mind that there are multiple virus types both Rhino virus and Corona virus that create the symptoms that are referred to as the common cold.  So one can get one type, have an immunity for it, then get a different virus.

[Mary229]

8 minutes ago, npcl said:

Not necessarily.  Natural immunity from most of the milder Corona virus types last about a year or so.  If an vaccine was able to get similar results then one can get a successful vaccine, just one that would require annual boosters. Where as I doubt many are going to want to go through COVID reinfection each year for natural herd immunity.

 

Also keep in mind that there are multiple virus types both Rhino virus and Corona virus that create the symptoms that are referred to as the common cold.  So one can get one type, have an immunity for it, then get a different virus.

And research is being done to determine if one corona virus antibodies can assist the immune system with the COVID-19 virus.    This virus didn’t spring fully formed, it has a lineage. 

[npcl]

4 hours ago, RocketMan275 said:

Of course it is a big cost but it still might be the cheapest cost.

One cannot negotiate costs with a virus.  

We need to consider what options there might be if there is no vaccine.

Some would like to believe that all we  have to do is wear masks, practice social distance, and all the other protocols until there is an effective vaccine.  Those are not long term solutions.  People will only put up with those for a limited time.  We may be approaching that limit.  So, what's Plan B?

And go through all again after the immunity wears off.  I expect from what I am reading in the medical literature that the natural immunity will be similar to other Corona viruses and will last maybe 12 months at best. If so then reaching herd immunity once will not mean elimination of the virus and it will return each year as the immunity wears off.

 

One better hope for a vaccine and/or  effective therapeutics.  Of course the primary antiviral technology is monoclonal antibodies that use a lot of the same technology as modern vaccine development.  The primary difference is one gets the body to grow the antibodies, the other grows them outside and then injects or infuses them into a patient.

[cruisemom42]

33 minutes ago, MISTER 67 said:

 

2020 is a different time and place than 1918 when things were much more civil.

 

This is one of those fallacies of history. "Yesterday" was always a golden age, compared with today.

 

I don't think people were more civil, necessarily. To wit, some events from 1917-1918, discounting major riots, strike violence and acts of war also going on during this period:

 

• In May 1917, Ell Persons was lynched in Memphis without any trial -- he was tied to a log, doused with gasoline, and burned him alive. Later called one of the "most vicious" lynchings ever recorded.
• In November 1917, a number of suffragettes who were imprisoned for nothing more than legally protesting to gain the right to vote were imprisoned, and in prison were tied or chained up, beaten, and otherwise brutalized by the prison authorities.
• In January 1918, what's known as the Porvenir massacre  took place: Texas Rangers, U.S. Cavalry soldiers, and local ranchers killed 15 unarmed Mexican villagers, both men and boys.
• In July 1918, the entire family of the ruling Russian tsar were lined up and shot in a house where they were being held prisoner.

Civil?  You be the judge...

 

 

[Mary229]

12 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

This is one of those fallacies of history. "Yesterday" was always a golden age, compared with today.

 

I don't think people were more civil, necessarily. To wit, some events from 1917-1918, discounting major riots, strike violence and acts of war also going on during this period:

 

• In May 1917, Ell Persons was lynched in Memphis without any trial -- he was tied to a log, doused with gasoline, and burned him alive. Later called one of the "most vicious" lynchings ever recorded.
• In November 1917, a number of suffragettes who were imprisoned for nothing more than legally protesting to gain the right to vote were imprisoned, and in prison were tied or chained up, beaten, and otherwise brutalized by the prison authorities.
• In January 1918, what's known as the Porvenir massacre  took place: Texas Rangers, U.S. Cavalry soldiers, and local ranchers killed 15 unarmed Mexican villagers, both men and boys.
• In July 1918, the entire family of the ruling Russian tsar were lined up and shot in a house where they were being held prisoner.

Civil?  You be the judge...

 

 

And there were many who rebelled against imposed social distancing restrictions.   They were just as smart, clever and vile as the current group. 

[MISTER 67]

15 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

This is one of those fallacies of history. "Yesterday" was always a golden age, compared with today.

 

I don't think people were more civil, necessarily. To wit, some events from 1917-1918, discounting major riots, strike violence and acts of war also going on during this period:

 

• In May 1917, Ell Persons was lynched in Memphis without any trial -- he was tied to a log, doused with gasoline, and burned him alive. Later called one of the "most vicious" lynchings ever recorded.
• In November 1917, a number of suffragettes who were imprisoned for nothing more than legally protesting to gain the right to vote were imprisoned, and in prison were tied or chained up, beaten, and otherwise brutalized by the prison authorities.
• In January 1918, what's known as the Porvenir massacre  took place: Texas Rangers, U.S. Cavalry soldiers, and local ranchers killed 15 unarmed Mexican villagers, both men and boys.
• In July 1918, the entire family of the ruling Russian tsar were lined up and shot in a house where they were being held prisoner.

Civil?  You be the judge...

 

 

I could be here for a day listing hundreds of examples of how civility has gone downhill in the last 50 years or so. If you think civility is the same in our world here in 2020 as it was in 1918 you must have been living down in the South Pole quite awhile without any communication.  

Edited July 12, 2020 by MISTER 67

[drsel]

OP, don't worry, Beijing institute is the first to get an approval for a vaccine and Oxford University has already reached the third stage clinical trial, so it should get approved soon

 

 

[cruisemom42]

3 minutes ago, MISTER 67 said:

I could be here for a day listing hundreds of examples of how civility has gone downhill in the last 50 years or so. If you think civility is the same in our world here in 2020 as it was in 1918 you must have been living down in the South Pole quite awhile without any communication.  

 

And I could quote as many examples back. Mary 229 above says it well:  we are the same people with the same characteristics. There are good and not-so-good and possibly those who are pure evil. But this is not a new phenomenon.

 

[RocketMan275]

48 minutes ago, npcl said:

And go through all again after the immunity wears off.  I expect from what I am reading in the medical literature that the natural immunity will be similar to other Corona viruses and will last maybe 12 months at best. If so then reaching herd immunity once will not mean elimination of the virus and it will return each year as the immunity wears off.

 

One better hope for a vaccine and/or  effective therapeutics.  Of course the primary antiviral technology is monoclonal antibodies that use a lot of the same technology as modern vaccine development.  The primary difference is one gets the body to grow the antibodies, the other grows them outside and then injects or infuses them into a patient.

I share you hope for a vaccine and therapeutics.  My point has been what if the hope for a vaccine is a false hope?  What then?  I do not believe that shutdowns and the other protocols can be enforce long term.

[Mosaic]

6 minutes ago, drsel said:

OP, don't worry, Beijing institute is the first to get an approval for a vaccine and Oxford University has already reached the third stage clinical trial, so it should get approved soon

 

 

Where does "should" follow from this?

[Mosaic]

15,000 new cases in Florida....ouch

[kelleherdl]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

There are several different types and technologies in play in vaccine development for COVID-19.  Pretty mcuh all vaccine technologies are is play.

 

DNA

Takis/Applied DNA Sciences/Evvivax

Zydus Cadila

Inovio Pharmaceuticals, Phase 1 (NCT04336410. opens in new tab)

 

Inactivated 

Sinovac, Phase 1 (NCT04352608. opens in new tab)

Beijing Institute of Biological Sciences/Wuhan Institute of Biological Sciences, Phase 1 (ChiCTR2000031809)

 

Live attenuated 

Codagenix/Serum Institute of India

 

Nonreplicating vector

GeoVax/BravoVax

Janssen Pharmaceutical Companies

Altimmune

Greffex

Vaxart

ExpresS2ion

CanSino Biologics, Phases 1 and 2 (ChiCTR2000030906 and ChiCTR2000031781)

University of Oxford/AstraZeneca, Phase 1/2 (NCT04324606. opens in new tab)

Shenzhen Geno-Immune Medical Institute, Phase 1/2
(NCT04276896. opens in new tab)

 

Protein subunit

WRAIR/U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases

Clover Biopharmaceuticals Inc/GSK

Vaxil Bio

AJ Vaccines

Genrex/EpiVax/University of Georgia

Sanofi Pasteur

Novavax

Heat Biologics/University of Miami

University of Queensland/GSK/ Baylor College of Medicine iBio/CC-Pharming

 

Replicating viral 

Zydus Cadila

Institut Pasteur/Themis

Tonix Pharma/Southern Research

 

RNA

Fudan University/Shanghai JiaoTong University/RNACure Biopharma

China CDC/Tongji University/Stermina

Arcturus/Duke-NUS

Imperial College London Curevac

Moderna/NIAID (NCT04283461. opens in new tab)

BioNTech/Pfizer, Phase 1/2 (NCT04368728. opens in new tab)

ImmunoPrecise

MIGAL Galilee Research Institute

Doherty Institute

Tulane University

 

An interesting thing to watch this time around is how the 'winner or winners' will be managed.  The Novavax plant in Holly Springs was built with DoD biodefense money, the GSK and Merck plants are heavily subsidized I bet, the Sanofi-Pasteur plants the same.  This won't be a 'competitive rush to market''. It will be a coordinated effort as profitability is essentially guaranteed.

[AncientWanderer]

2 hours ago, MISTER 67 said:

Unfortunately, people aren't doing safe things. Yesterday in France a bus driver asked people to wear their masks while on the bus, 4 of them disagreed and dragged the driver off the bus and proceeded to beat him to death. Millions refuse to take the virus seriously and refuse to wear masks and social distance.

2020 is a different time and place than 1918 when things were much more civil.

 

Yeah...my mom used to share that during the Great Depression, it was not uncommon to invite a hobo in for a meal and give a bit of work -- some little odd job in the house or yard.  I don't think that kind of trust exists now.  

[npcl]

20 minutes ago, RocketMan275 said:

I share you hope for a vaccine and therapeutics.  My point has been what if the hope for a vaccine is a false hope?  What then?  I do not believe that shutdowns and the other protocols can be enforce long term.

If there is no effective vaccines or therapeutics then COVID-19 will be around for a long time and there will be a lot of death and health impacts.  We are getting indications of reinfections.  One report indicated that the individuals second infection was worse than the first (my biggest fear is for COVID to behave like Dengue).  His first infection was minor and the second more serious. Still very preliminary, would like to see more information in an peer reviewed medical journal, but that will take time.  But still the hints are concerning.

 

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.

https://www.vox.com/2020/7/12/21321653/getting-covid-19-twice-reinfection-antibody-herd-immunity

 

Plus we are getting more information  about health effects, even where the cases are not fatal.

Physicians give first comprehensive review of COVID-19's effects outside the lung

 

Extrapulmonary manifestations of COVID-19

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0968-3

[npcl]

15 minutes ago, kelleherdl said:

An interesting thing to watch this time around is how the 'winner or winners' will be managed.  The Novavax plant in Holly Springs was built with DoD biodefense money, the GSK and Merck plants are heavily subsidized I bet, the Sanofi-Pasteur plants the same.  This won't be a 'competitive rush to market''. It will be a coordinated effort as profitability is essentially guaranteed.

I have talked to a some people that are still in the industry in different companies (I retired 7 years ago).  They have all been consistent in communicating that the efforts in their companies are of the don't mind the costs, do whatever is necessary to find a solution ASAP.

[cruisemom42]

2 minutes ago, npcl said:

I have talked to a some people that are still in the industry in different companies (I retired 7 years ago).  They have all been consistent in communicating that the efforts in their companies are of the don't mind the costs, do whatever is necessary to find a solution ASAP.

 

Ditto -- from someone still working in the industry.

[Mary229]

5 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Ditto -- from someone still working in the industry.

Johnson and Johnson said long ago they would distribute 1 billion vaccines free of charge, 100% free.  If you recall the polio vaccine was free.