It looks like it will have to be a vaccine or a cure to restart cruising as herd immunity is not possible

[ontheweb]

A new large scale study down in Spain has shown that herd immunity cannot be reached (or at least before a significant death toll).

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

[navybankerteacher]

31 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

A new large scale study down in Spain has shown that herd immunity cannot be reached (or at least before a significant death toll).

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

Interesting point.  It is too easy to hope for herd immunity in the matter of COVID - the cost (in lives) to reach that level is simply too high. Long term, we need an effective widely available vaccine, or possible mutation of the virus to a less lethal form — and in the meantime social distancing and common sense hygiene - including regular use of masks - remains necessary.

 

 

[Joebucks]

One study says this. One says that

 

A study in New York found 68% immunity.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-york-coronavirus-antibodies-neighbourhoods-second-wave-a9612166.html

[clo]

19 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

One study says this. One says that

 

A study in New York found 68% immunity.

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/new-york-coronavirus-antibodies-neighbourhoods-second-wave-a9612166.html

The one in Spain was a true study of 60,000 people. The NY one was more a collection from different neighborhoods which I believe was the point of it.

[Sea Hag]

I'm pinning my hopes on a vaccine.

[pc_load_letter]

We're not getting herd immunity because idiot politicians think it's better to keep us isolated.

 

We're going to see nothing but new surges because as we close-open-close-open, that leads to nothing but the numbers going up and down.

 

 

[mom says]

13 minutes ago, pc_load_letter said:

We're not getting herd immunity because idiot politicians think it's better to keep us isolated.

 

We're going to see nothing but new surges because as we close-open-close-open, that leads to nothing but the numbers going up and down.

 

 

So your informed solution is to get rid of social distancing, masks, and the other mitigation efforts  and just allow the infection and death rates continue to climb?  Who cares about people dying or having long term physical effects.  Who cares that hospitals will continue to be stressed to the max because they've become swamped with new cases as the disease runs unchecked. Sounds like a great plan.

[pc_load_letter]

9 minutes ago, mom says said:

So your informed solution is to get rid of social distancing, masks, and the other mitigation efforts  and just allow the infection and death rates continue to climb?  Who cares about people dying or having long term physical effects.  Who cares that hospitals will continue to be stressed to the max because they've become swamped with new cases as the disease runs unchecked. Sounds like a great plan.

 

You can believe the press if you'd like but the death rate is minimal based on population.

 

More people die from TB across the globe every year but when there is a TB outbreak (as there always is in San Diego with our proximity to Mexico) we don't lose our ***** and shutdown an entire economy.

 

People need to make their own decisions. Sure, protect the senior living facilities and retirement homes but in CA, more people between the ages of 18-45 have killed themselves as a result of quarantines than have died from Covid.

 

So California is pretty much shut down now, the infection rate is not going to go down because testing is through the roof. Which is a good thing. But even when you reopen, you will see another surge. Just like we see a surge of flu during the winter. It's the nature of things. And masks are feel good techniques that do nothing. Washing your hands are what works.

 

And finally, California hospitals are no where near capacity. And have never even been close. I just had elective surgery last week. New cases are not overwhelming the facilities.

 

If you are an older person, sure, feel free to stay home. I don't really care what you do

Edited July 12, 2020 by pc_load_letter

[cruisemom42]

22 minutes ago, pc_load_letter said:

We're not getting herd immunity because idiot politicians think it's better to keep us isolated.

 

We're going to see nothing but new surges because as we close-open-close-open, that leads to nothing but the numbers going up and down.

 

 

 

No. We're not getting herd immunity because there may BE no herd immunity.

 

[pc_load_letter]

2 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

No. We're not getting herd immunity because there may BE no herd immunity.

 

 

Then everyone on these boards should clutch their masks, hide in their homes, stay home from work, and pray for a vaccine.

[chipmaster]

2 hours ago, clo said:

The one in Spain was a true study of 60,000 people. The NY one was more a collection from different neighborhoods which I believe was the point of it.

 

Even there it was a sampling of those tested going to clinics, not a true random sample, but the results still significant, poor people who had to go out and work and face the pandemic were clearly exposed and a large number developed anti-bodies but the rich and sheltered at home far less exposure and resistance.      

 

So in the end there will be some vaccines, probably not with the efficacy we hope for, it'll be the working poor that develop immunity and the rich sheltered who will have to live protected and cautious lives for years till they slowely all get exposed.

 

And even if 70% get antibodies there is still no longterm understanding how long you retain the ability to fight the virus and if you are lower risk or maybe even higher risk for serious issues with an infection.

 

This virus really mutated to be the perfect society destroyer of the human condition of the modern 20th century.  

 

So we will get to herd immunity some way, whether in 2022 or 2025, but during that path most certainly many more will die.   It is a sad biological fact that no amount of money, praying-wishing can or will change.

Edited July 12, 2020 by chipmaster

[lenquixote66]

6 hours ago, ontheweb said:

A new large scale study down in Spain has shown that herd immunity cannot be reached (or at least before a significant death toll).

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983

When I said that  in March many of the CC poster thought I was crazy.

[Joebucks]

11 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

No. We're not getting herd immunity because there may BE no herd immunity.

 

 

Well whatever that definition may be, we know a lot of people have antibodies for it. A lot more than we originally thought. We also know that locking yourself inside, depriving yourself of vitamin D and depriving yourself of oxygen (amongst other things) don't help your chances of not getting sick (from anything).

 

Coronaviruses aren't new. People don't realize how many different infections we had recently that went away without vaccines. SARS, MERS, H1N1. Again, we can split hairs over definitions, differences, etc, but the fact of the matter is, these highly contagious infections mutate. The flu vaccine only has about a 40% effective rate, and few people know that. COVID isn't a death sentence, and most of these viruses tend to become less lethal over time even though the death rate is already super low.

[clo]

13 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

we know a lot of people have antibodies for it

I saw an interview with Tom Hanks and he said their antibodies are already starting to drop.

[clo]

14 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

We also know that locking yourself inside, depriving yourself of vitamin D and depriving yourself of oxygen (amongst other things) don't help your chances of not getting sick (from anything).

I don't know a soul who's doing that, do you? I've never seen so many people walking past our house. And how do you deprive yourself of oxygen? Please.

[lenquixote66]

1 minute ago, KnowTheScore said:

A vaccine won't make any difference imho

 

The fact remains that the cruise lines will be forced to react in a certain way IF someone on-board presents with COVID-19, passenger or crew.   If that protocol remains that EVERY passenger is quarantined to cabin for 1-2 weeks then we still have a massive problem.   No-one is going to want to cruise whilst a Diamond Princess scenario still exists.  Vaccine or no vaccine.

Cruising as we knew it may never be the same again.

[Roz]

1 minute ago, KnowTheScore said:

A vaccine won't make any difference imho

 

The fact remains that the cruise lines will be forced to react in a certain way IF someone on-board presents with COVID-19, passenger or crew.   If that protocol remains that EVERY passenger is quarantined to cabin for 1-2 weeks then we still have a massive problem.   No-one is going to want to cruise whilst a Diamond Princess scenario still exists.  Vaccine or no vaccine.

 

What would a cruise line do if someone on the cruise was diagnosed with TB or hepatitis by the ship's doctor?  Just curious, as both are highly contagious and many times require quarantine on land.  Not just quarantine for the infected person, but others whom they live, work, or have in contact with.

[drsel]

Beijing institute is the first to get an approval for a vaccine and Oxford University has already reached the third stage clinical trial, so it should get approved soon

[clo]

41 minutes ago, Roz said:

 

What would a cruise line do if someone on the cruise was diagnosed with TB or hepatitis by the ship's doctor?  Just curious, as both are highly contagious and many times require quarantine on land.  Not just quarantine for the infected person, but others whom they live, work, or have in contact with.

Could you provide links for that please? While both are contagious AFAIK they're not "highly" contagious. 

 

And they're both treatable.

Edited July 12, 2020 by clo

[pc_load_letter]

19 minutes ago, clo said:

Could you provide links for that please? While both are contagious AFAIK they're not "highly" contagious. 

 

And they're both treatable.

 

An MD could probably define levels of contagiousness but I did find this....https://www.healthgrades.com/right-care/infections-and-contagious-diseases/8-highly-contagious-diseases-you-should-know-about

 

Tuberculosis (TB)

TB is a relatively rare disease in the United States, but it’s common in other parts of the world and is highly contagious. TB is caused by a bacterium that attacks the lungs and causes coughing, chest pain, and other symptoms. Left untreated, it can be deadly. TB bacteria are released into the air when a person with TB coughs, sneezes or speaks. You can become infected simply by breathing in the contaminated air. If you think you may have been exposed, contact your doctor about testing. If you are infected, there is medicine to prevent the infection from getting worse.

 

[clo]

1 hour ago, ldubs said:

Nevada

Our governor has shut down bars in the Vegas and Reno areas, not just those two counties. That's going to help but I don't think it's enough. I know that Tahoe beaches are open and I assume mobbed as usual. Re gathering I just checked and they've reduced the numbers by 50%. Seems like some states limited it to 50 people. He's been pretty aggressive so far and I'm hoping he'll kick it up again. I gather the casino owners aren't releasing info about infected employees. I'm thinking shutting down bars, large gathering spaces and casinos would still leave enough open to function better than a full shut down. But que sera sera.

[sanger727]

5 hours ago, Joebucks said:

 

Well whatever that definition may be, we know a lot of people have antibodies for it. A lot more than we originally thought. We also know that locking yourself inside, depriving yourself of vitamin D and depriving yourself of oxygen (amongst other things) don't help your chances of not getting sick (from anything).

 

 

there has never been a recommendation to deprive yourself of vitamin D or oxygen

 

4 hours ago, Roz said:

 

What would a cruise line do if someone on the cruise was diagnosed with TB or hepatitis by the ship's doctor?  Just curious, as both are highly contagious and many times require quarantine on land.  Not just quarantine for the infected person, but others whom they live, work, or have in contact with.

 

Many people have been vaccinated against hepatitis A and B. In fact it’s recommended by the CDC prior to traveling. Hepatitis C is spread through body fluids. I don’t think anyone would consider that ‘highly contagious’
 

 

3 hours ago, pc_load_letter said:

 

An MD could probably define levels of contagiousness but I did find this....https://www.healthgrades.com/right-care/infections-and-contagious-diseases/8-highly-contagious-diseases-you-should-know-about

 

Tuberculosis (TB)

TB is a relatively rare disease in the United States, but it’s common in other parts of the world and is highly contagious. TB is caused by a bacterium that attacks the lungs and causes coughing, chest pain, and other symptoms. Left untreated, it can be deadly. TB bacteria are released into the air when a person with TB coughs, sneezes or speaks. You can become infected simply by breathing in the contaminated air. If you think you may have been exposed, contact your doctor about testing. If you are infected, there is medicine to prevent the infection from getting worse.

 

the key facts you are flossing over is ‘rare’ and ‘left untreated, can be deadly’. It’s very unlikely someone would bring TB onto a cruise ship due to how few people have it. I can’t seem to recall ever hearing in the news of a TB outbreak on a cruise ship in recent decades. And it’s curable if treated, soo... not quite the same 

[AF-1]

Everyone have faith;  the scientists and drug companies are working overtime to develop a vaccine and have it approved in minimal time.  Let's have hope that the virus will get under control. 

[LoriPhil]

In the meantime masking up can help curb the spread and ease pressure on the medical infrastructure.

[navybankerteacher]

1 hour ago, LoriPhil said:

In the meantime masking up can help curb the spread and ease pressure on the medical infrastructure.

You would think this is self-evident, yet there are some in Florida, Texas and elsewhere who insist upon their constitutional rights to not wear masks or practice social distancing.   There are those who cannot grasp the notion of doing something the least bit inconvenient if they do not see a direct benefit to themselves.