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It looks like it will have to be a vaccine or a cure to restart cruising as herd immunity is not possible

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The search for anything that gets someone re-elected, gets someone to first base first, and gives hope is where everyone is going.

 

Anyone think corners will be cut, un-supportive or inconclusive data conveniently discarded all for the greater end objective, not me, LOL

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3 hours ago, electro said:

Your constance posts about everyone being negative on these boards are the most negative posts I have seen! 

 

 

Sorry, you feel that way.

 

If you check my posting history, you will see that I started posts about possible vaccine breakthroughs and possible treatments only to get all the negative responses that I listed.

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27 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Sorry, you feel that way.

 

If you check my posting history, you will see that I started posts about possible vaccine breakthroughs and possible treatments only to get all the negative responses that I listed.

I've seen your posts. You commented on what you conceive to be negative in several threads.

You even complain about something that someone Might say.

These are just a couple of examples from this thread. 

 

On 8/2/2020 at 7:20 AM, ontheweb said:

Clo will find a way to say all of that is negative. No 100% cure, and she will say negative.

 

On 8/2/2020 at 12:10 PM, ontheweb said:

And those in these forums who always look for the negative will say that was done only to boost the price of the stock.

 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/1/2020 at 10:48 AM, SRF said:

 

Hmm, that''s good statistics, compare 1 full year with 1/2 year and say wow, more people die in 1 year than in 1/2 year.  About 1.5 million TBs deaths per year, versus 650,000 COVID deaths in about 6 months.  

...

.

What is the point of spouting incomplete or otherwise  irrelevant statistics? 

 

In the US there were about 8,900 TB deaths in all of 2019 — compared with 157,000 US COVID deaths in about six months this year. So for the US (which happens to be where we are) COVID presents about 35 time the threat of TB. That is a valid statistical comparison.

 

World wide there were about 1,500,000 TB deaths in all of 2019, and about 650,000 COVID deaths in about six months this year.  So, at a first (SUPERFICIAL) glance, it might be claimed by an unthinking individual that COVID does not represent any greater threat.

 

But - and this is significant:  the overwhelming number of TB deaths occur in the lesser developed areas of the world - where COVID is just now starting to take its toll.

Edited by navybankerteacher

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5 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

What is the point of spouting incomplete or otherwise  irrelevant statistics? 

 

I think SRF has an agenda. I don't know what it is but he seems to sing this song regularly.  ???

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15 hours ago, electro said:

I've seen your posts. You commented on what you conceive to be negative in several threads.

You even complain about something that someone Might say.

These are just a couple of examples from this thread. 

 

 

 

As for your example of me commenting on "boosting the price of the stock", that has been said by other posters and in fact they cited how much the executives made in selling their stock.

 

You didn't notice for instance I started a thread that there was maybe a vaccine on the horizon and even Dr. Fauci was optimistic????? and then there were literally hundreds of posts why we should not be optimistic.

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10 hours ago, clo said:

I think SRF has an agenda. I don't know what it is but he seems to sing this song regularly.  ???

It seems to reflect a strong desire to trivialize COVID by making irrelevant comparisons with the effects of other diseases.

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1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

As for your example of me commenting on "boosting the price of the stock", that has been said by other posters and in fact they cited how much the executives made in selling their stock.

 

You didn't notice for instance I started a thread that there was maybe a vaccine on the horizon and even Dr. Fauci was optimistic????? and then there were literally hundreds of posts why we should not be optimistic.

 

ontheweb -- I think right now the entire COVID situation is a mix of both positive and negative news. Unfortunately, on many days the news can seem mostly negative (for good reason -- people sense that no one really has a sure hand on the wheel in many countries/areas/regions/states).

 

People have different outlooks on life. There's no real right or wrong. Optimists feel it is better to dwell on the good news. Pessimists/cynics think it is better to think the worst and then perhaps the outcome won't be as bad as predicted and they will be relieved.  Or if it is as bad, they will feel prepared. 

 

Pessimists often call themselves realists, but I personally think the realist steers a middle course. Yes, there is negative news, but when you look at the big picture (or take the long view -- whatever you want to call it), EVERYTHING is not doom and gloom. This is not an extinction event.  But I do think we need to be prepared for cruising to not restart for a long while yet -- especially given the experiences reported this week.

 

I don't think most of those posting negative posts do so with the thought of crushing all hope. They feel they are "countering" baseless optimism -- and given what has been posted in some places on this site, I think that is needed. Just don't take it too personally.

 

 

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3 hours ago, ontheweb said:

As for your example of me commenting on "boosting the price of the stock", that has been said by other posters and in fact they cited how much the executives made in selling their stock.

 

You didn't notice for instance I started a thread that there was maybe a vaccine on the horizon and even Dr. Fauci was optimistic????? and then there were literally hundreds of posts why we should not be optimistic.

If you have seen any of my recent posts I am guilty of not being very optimistic about the near future of the cruise industry.  I have posted numerous times about the "vaccine myth" which is still based on "hopes" and not fact.  The Washington Post (not my favorite newspaper) recently published a decent article which laid out many of the vaccine issues.  The bottom line of that piece was that even a successful vaccine (which is still doubtful) could take several years to have any major impact on COVID.  That article went into the issue of the effectiveness of vaccines and how many early vaccines have a relatively low effective rate.  Apparently the CDC has set as 50% Effective their guideline for a COVID vaccine.  That would be about the same effective rate as the flu vaccines and we all know how the flu has been wiped-out throughout the world :(.

 

So yes, there have probably been hundreds of posts of why not to be optimistic.  And the recent events with restarts in Europe have only reinforced those negative posts.   Looking at events through rosy glasses is much easier to accept for folks that do not easily accept reality, but the reality of COVID seems to be overwhelming most optimists.  Rather then simply closing one's eyes to the current reality, there are still many who prefer to think "everything will be back to near normal in a few months or 2021."  But there is no reason (other then groundless hope) to think that is what will happen.

 

Hank

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I believe that premature cruise re-starts will cause the industry a great deal of PR distress.  Not just from a covid perspective but very much from a trust perspective.

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1 hour ago, Hlitner said:

If you have seen any of my recent posts I am guilty of not being very optimistic about the near future of the cruise industry.  I have posted numerous times about the "vaccine myth" which is still based on "hopes" and not fact.  The Washington Post (not my favorite newspaper) recently published a decent article which laid out many of the vaccine issues.  The bottom line of that piece was that even a successful vaccine (which is still doubtful) could take several years to have any major impact on COVID.  That article went into the issue of the effectiveness of vaccines and how many early vaccines have a relatively low effective rate.  Apparently the CDC has set as 50% Effective their guideline for a COVID vaccine.  That would be about the same effective rate as the flu vaccines and we all know how the flu has been wiped-out throughout the world :(.

 

So yes, there have probably been hundreds of posts of why not to be optimistic.  And the recent events with restarts in Europe have only reinforced those negative posts.   Looking at events through rosy glasses is much easier to accept for folks that do not easily accept reality, but the reality of COVID seems to be overwhelming most optimists.  Rather then simply closing one's eyes to the current reality, there are still many who prefer to think "everything will be back to near normal in a few months or 2021."  But there is no reason (other then groundless hope) to think that is what will happen.

 

Hank

I do not mind your posts because you show a certain sadness rather than reveling in trying to destroy all hope.

 

Just remember when some say that there has never been a successful vaccine against a corona virus, I bet once upon a time it was said that there has never been a successful vaccine against polio. And then there was one, and then there were two.

 

And others have said a vaccine will probably be pushed through because of political pressure. And yet we just saw the FDA say no to the President's favorite drug against this virus. And I do hope even if we doubt the political appointees, that there are persons of integrity that do work for the regulatory agencies like the FDA.

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4 hours ago, Hlitner said:

If you have seen any of my recent posts I am guilty of not being very optimistic about the near future of the cruise industry.  I have posted numerous times about the "vaccine myth" which is still based on "hopes" and not fact.  The Washington Post (not my favorite newspaper) recently published a decent article which laid out many of the vaccine issues.  The bottom line of that piece was that even a successful vaccine (which is still doubtful) could take several years to have any major impact on COVID.  That article went into the issue of the effectiveness of vaccines and how many early vaccines have a relatively low effective rate.  Apparently the CDC has set as 50% Effective their guideline for a COVID vaccine.  That would be about the same effective rate as the flu vaccines and we all know how the flu has been wiped-out throughout the world :(.

 

So yes, there have probably been hundreds of posts of why not to be optimistic.  And the recent events with restarts in Europe have only reinforced those negative posts.   Looking at events through rosy glasses is much easier to accept for folks that do not easily accept reality, but the reality of COVID seems to be overwhelming most optimists.  Rather then simply closing one's eyes to the current reality, there are still many who prefer to think "everything will be back to near normal in a few months or 2021."  But there is no reason (other then groundless hope) to think that is what will happen.

 

Hank

Just as in the case of flu vaccine, efficacy of any approved vaccines is not the only problem that may prevent achievement of herd immunity. Surveys have shown a downward trend over time in the percentage of Americans who say they'll get vaccinated against COVID-19. In one recent survey only 42% said they would be vaccinated:

 

https://news.yahoo.com/yahoo-news-you-gov-coronavirus-poll-number-of-americans-who-plan-to-get-vaccinated-falls-to-42-percent-a-new-low-162000936.html

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3 hours ago, ontheweb said:

The bottom line of that piece was that even a successful vaccine (which is still doubtful) could take several years to have any major impact on COVID.

 

Well it is of course doubtful until the approval is actually received. However, doubt can be overplayed.

 

We have at least 3 reasonable vaccine candidates (not considering the Chinese and Russian ones) that are entering now or will enter by September into Phase 3 trials.

 

A recent retrospective review of 15 years' worth of drug development data published in the journal Biostatistics, which looked at the % chance of approval given a drug or vaccine's current stage (in clinical trials), found that for all vaccines entering Phase III trials, the likelihood of obtaining an approval was 85.4%.  That's certainly not a figure to sneeze at, and we have three "shots on goal".

 

Also, just because some of our leaders have not exactly done a stellar job of leading and coordinating the response does not mean that scientists, regulators and manufacturers have not been working collaboratively on this. Here's a recent quote from Peggy Hamburg, foreign secretary of the National Academy of Medicine and a former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, on the effort to remove hurdles to development of a vaccine for COVID-19:

 

"Regulatory authorities around the world are coming together in ways that are very, very important to reduce barriers and to make sure that they’re bringing the best possible science to bear on decision making, trying to identify what are the critical questions that have to be asked and answered, what kind of study designs and preclinical work is going to be necessary, so that you don’t have companies facing different regulatory authorities with different standards and requests and approaches, so that the hard questions can be more effectively addressed through bringing together the best minds, wherever they are."

 

 

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2 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

"Regulatory authorities around the world are coming together

And we're grateful that they're doing that despite any interference they may get.

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12 hours ago, clo said:

And we're grateful that they're doing that despite any interference they may get.

Yes, it is well to remember that there are professionals doing the work, people who really do care about science and their fellow humans.

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15 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Well it is of course doubtful until the approval is actually received. However, doubt can be overplayed.

 

We have at least 3 reasonable vaccine candidates (not considering the Chinese and Russian ones) that are entering now or will enter by September into Phase 3 trials.

 

A recent retrospective review of 15 years' worth of drug development data published in the journal Biostatistics, which looked at the % chance of approval given a drug or vaccine's current stage (in clinical trials), found that for all vaccines entering Phase III trials, the likelihood of obtaining an approval was 85.4%.  That's certainly not a figure to sneeze at, and we have three "shots on goal".

 

 

 

 

WOW! 85.4% chance of approval for vaccines entering stage 3 of clinical testing. I'm sure I have read on these boards (though I would have to go through hundreds of posts to find them) several who have said that there is a 90% chance of failure after completing stage 2 successfully. Completing stage 2 would mean entering stage 3, correct?

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42 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

WOW! 85.4% chance of approval for vaccines entering stage 3 of clinical testing. I'm sure I have read on these boards (though I would have to go through hundreds of posts to find them) several who have said that there is a 90% chance of failure after completing stage 2 successfully. Completing stage 2 would mean entering stage 3, correct?

 

Yes, that should be the same thing. The figure I mentioned is cited in Table 2 in the link below (not sure if it is accessible to all; I have an account):

 

https://academic.oup.com/biostatistics/article/20/2/273/4817524

 

Of course, it is for all vaccines, some of which may be renewals of existing vaccines and most of which are probably well-tested types. But still, it is pretty robust.

 

 

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1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

several who have said that there is a 90% chance of failure after completing stage 2 successfully.

No...about 90% of new vaccines entering human trials failed. That means new vaccines entering phase 1, not after completing phase 2. There's a huge difference. And that number came from an expert, the former president of Merck's vaccine division . I've provided  a link to the article several times, but I'll do it once more: https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/05/19/we-roar-covid-vaccine-12-18-months-dont-count-it .

 

The comparable information from the article cited by cruisemom42 is not very different from the 10% in the article I cited . Here's what it says:  "We find that 13.8% of all drug development programs eventually lead to approval, which is higher than the 10.4% reported by Hay and others (2014) and the 9.6% reported by Thomas and others (2016). "

 

You're not comparing apples to apples. I am.

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