Would Carnival Corp consider converting one of its lines to river cruising

[rkacruiser]

5 hours ago, aliaschief said:

With Viking River cruises entering the US market one wonders how many other River boat lines will follow.

 

If such would happen, I wonder if we might see comments/complaints on CC about "too many river cruise guests" in Vicksburg, Davenport, etc. 

[chengkp75]

14 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

What about the Seabourn ships?

No ocean going ship is going to go above the "navigable limit" of any river.  For 90% of their length, most rivers have low bridges, and the European river boats will have foldable railings on their top decks, and retractable wheelhouses to get under these bridges, so any ship with more than about 3-4 decks above the waterline will not fit under the bridges.

[rafinmd]

1 hour ago, Sir PMP said:

What about the Seabourn ships?

I think it's pretty doubtful.  I think I've been on most of the major European rivers and don't think they or even the former triplets could get under the bridges.  In addition, being registered in Bermuda they could not be reflagged for the US, and probably couldn't be in the EU either.  The ship most likely to have a ghost of a chance would be Celebrity Expedition, probably too tall for most rivers but there might be some where it would fit.  Currently flagged in Equador, but it has been flagged in Malta (that seems to be the flag of convenience within the EU) so there's some chance it could be reflagged in Europe.

 

Roy

[npcl]

8 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Since Carnival is incorporated in Panama, any tax recapture would be based on Panamanian tax law (if there is any recapture), not US taxes, and I doubt that the sale price is more than the depreciated basis, again based on Panamanian tax law.  And, with Carnival hemorrhaging money, any capital raised by sale of ships will be used for operating expenses until operations resume. 

I would also expect that they are getting  rid of them so they can get rid of the operating and maintenance expenses they would incur even in warm layup.

[aliaschief]

Viking river boat Mississippi will be a new design compared to their fleet of other River long boats.

https://www.vikingrivercruises.com/ships/mississippi/viking-mississippi.html

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Roz]

1 hour ago, Sir PMP said:

What about the Seabourn ships?

 

Nope.  The river cruise ships sometimes have to fold down the top part of the ship in order to get under some of the bridges.  

[slidergirl]

Which ship did the cruise up the Amazon?  

 

There are quite a few of us on the Mainland with good hospitality credentials who would be willing to do some time on a Viking riverboat in the US.  Background check + USCG training and I'd do it.    One of the reasons it is difficult for NCLA to get and keep crew is the economy - it is damn expensive to live in the Islands.  Affordable housing is scarce and you'd be paying for a place that you are rarely at...  That's my thought.  

[chengkp75]

6 hours ago, slidergirl said:

Which ship did the cruise up the Amazon?  

 

There are quite a few of us on the Mainland with good hospitality credentials who would be willing to do some time on a Viking riverboat in the US.  Background check + USCG training and I'd do it.    One of the reasons it is difficult for NCLA to get and keep crew is the economy - it is damn expensive to live in the Islands.  Affordable housing is scarce and you'd be paying for a place that you are rarely at...  That's my thought.  

The vast majority of the POA crew, if not 95%, do not live in Hawaii.  They tried to hire mostly Hawaiian crew initially, but found that the Hawaiians were not that interested in the long hours, low pay, and not being at home for months while calling at their island every week.  Airfare to anywhere in the US that the crew member lives is provided by NCL both ways, unless the crew member quits.  That is not the reason NCL has difficulty hiring and retaining crew.  The wages for entry level crew are about what you would make working at a McDonalds anywhere on the mainland, but the hours are longer, the living conditions worse, so there is not a lot of interest in taking the jobs initially, and when they find out they are working, and not taking a cruise, they leave very quickly.

 

As for the Amazon, that is a unique situation, since the "head of navigation" or how far ocean going ships can go up the river is considered to be Manaus, over 900 miles up the river.  This is aided by the fact that there are zero bridges over the Amazon river.

[slidergirl]

6 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

The vast majority of the POA crew, if not 95%, do not live in Hawaii.  They tried to hire mostly Hawaiian crew initially, but found that the Hawaiians were not that interested in the long hours, low pay, and not being at home for months while calling at their island every week.  Airfare to anywhere in the US that the crew member lives is provided by NCL both ways, unless the crew member quits.  That is not the reason NCL has difficulty hiring and retaining crew.  The wages for entry level crew are about what you would make working at a McDonalds anywhere on the mainland, but the hours are longer, the living conditions worse, so there is not a lot of interest in taking the jobs initially, and when they find out they are working, and not taking a cruise, they leave very quickly.

 

As for the Amazon, that is a unique situation, since the "head of navigation" or how far ocean going ships can go up the river is considered to be Manaus, over 900 miles up the river.  This is aided by the fact that there are zero bridges over the Amazon river.

I stand corrected and bow to chengkp75 for the NCLA.  

 

Hey, I'd call 900 miles up the Amazon a "river" cruise!  

[rafinmd]

2 hours ago, slidergirl said:

I stand corrected and bow to chengkp75 for the NCLA.  

 

Hey, I'd call 900 miles up the Amazon a "river" cruise!  

And HAL has been doing it for years,

 

Roy

[rkacruiser]

4 hours ago, slidergirl said:

I'd call 900 miles up the Amazon a "river" cruise!  

 

1 hour ago, rafinmd said:

And HAL has been doing it for years,

 

Roy

 

It is a travel experience that is truly unique in so many ways.  

[chengkp75]

52 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

 

It is a travel experience that is truly unique in so many ways.  

If you like trees, more trees, and floating vegetation islands, mixed with the occasional dugout canoe with an outboard engine.  😉

[rkacruiser]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

If you like trees, more trees, and floating vegetation islands, mixed with the occasional dugout canoe with an outboard engine.  😉

 

Sir!  How can you say this?  Sunsets while cruising the Amazon so different that I cannot describe, ports and meeting the citizens of Brazil, excursions into the jungle and searching for alligators at night, not so pleasant experiences with the Immigration Officials of Brazil at Macapu, watching the change of the appearance of the sea under the ship's keel as we transitioned from the Atlantic into the Amazon watershed.  For me, this cruise is one that I won't forget.  

 

 

[Mary229]

I wasn’t really thinking HAL would convert ships to river cruising but converting its style to river cruising with ships appropriate to river voyages in a North America and beyond.  I think CCL’ s expertise is the very large North American consumer.   HAL’s blend of long, interesting itineraries at a moderate price with pleasant service would operate well on the river. 
The thread was started for a little speculative discussion 

[slidergirl]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

If you like trees, more trees, and floating vegetation islands, mixed with the occasional dugout canoe with an outboard engine.  😉

Kind of like canoeing on the lower Colorado River from Blythe, CA to Yuma, AZ.  😉

 

I did see that Viking is building a river ship for the Mississippi.  And, they are going to use one of their Polar ships for some Great Lakes cruises.  Could be interesting!  Check out their website, 

 

Edited July 21, 2020 by slidergirl

[rkacruiser]

18 minutes ago, slidergirl said:

Great Lakes cruises.  

 

Being a citizen of Ohio, these cruises that have been offered in the past are attractive.  Easy to get to and from.  But, oh my, the cost! 

[chengkp75]

10 hours ago, Mary229 said:

I wasn’t really thinking HAL would convert ships to river cruising but converting its style to river cruising with ships appropriate to river voyages in a North America and beyond.  I think CCL’ s expertise is the very large North American consumer.   HAL’s blend of long, interesting itineraries at a moderate price with pleasant service would operate well on the river. 
The thread was started for a little speculative discussion 

But, again, you would be dealing with a complete capital reinvestment, selling off the ocean ships and building river boats, so not only would there be construction cost, but the time to build the new boats would mean time without revenue coming in.  Then, train crew to the new business model, realign the executives to the new business model, and you have several years with losses to cover.  HAL's modest price is based on their business model, and current operating costs, there is no guarantee this could be sustainable given a completely new business model, passenger demographic, and service area.

[chengkp75]

10 hours ago, slidergirl said:

Kind of like canoeing on the lower Colorado River from Blythe, CA to Yuma, AZ.  😉

 

I did see that Viking is building a river ship for the Mississippi.  And, they are going to use one of their Polar ships for some Great Lakes cruises.  Could be interesting!  Check out their website, 

 

I know quite a bit about Viking's foray into the US market.  I will be interested to see how they fare with the Mississippi river cruises, as these will be US flag vessels, and they have tried to ignore the facts of the PVSA before, leading to the delays in the start of their operations by several years, until they finally came to terms with the "US built" clause of the PVSA.

[rafinmd]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

I know quite a bit about Viking's foray into the US market.  I will be interested to see how they fare with the Mississippi river cruises, as these will be US flag vessels, and they have tried to ignore the facts of the PVSA before, leading to the delays in the start of their operations by several years, until they finally came to terms with the "US built" clause of the PVSA.

It looks like they are planning Great Lakes cruises.  All would be between the US and Canada.  I see end points of Thunder Bay, and Toronto on the Canadian end and Milwaukee as the US port.

 

HAL has no ships anywhere near able to transit the seaway and I agree the cost of building them would be prohibitive.

 

Roy

[chengkp75]

3 hours ago, rafinmd said:

It looks like they are planning Great Lakes cruises.  All would be between the US and Canada.  I see end points of Thunder Bay, and Toronto on the Canadian end and Milwaukee as the US port.

 

HAL has no ships anywhere near able to transit the seaway and I agree the cost of building them would be prohibitive.

 

Roy

Yes, the Great Lakes cruises will use foreign flag expedition ships.

[Mary229]

11 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

But, again, you would be dealing with a complete capital reinvestment, selling off the ocean ships and building river boats, so not only would there be construction cost, but the time to build the new boats would mean time without revenue coming in.  Then, train crew to the new business model, realign the executives to the new business model, and you have several years with losses to cover.  HAL's modest price is based on their business model, and current operating costs, there is no guarantee this could be sustainable given a completely new business model, passenger demographic, and service area.

I keep saying CCL will be able to get credit.  I said river cruising, that doesn’t need to be a rebuild, that could be done through acquisition.   The US is not the only place to river cruise

[chengkp75]

6 minutes ago, Mary229 said:

I keep saying CCL will be able to get credit.  I said river cruising, that doesn’t need to be a rebuild, that could be done through acquisition.   The US is not the only place to river cruise

Perhaps they could get more credit, but that simply exacerbates the money drain, as they would need to repay the interest on that additional credit.  The US is not even a blip on the river cruise market, but why do you think any existing river cruise line would sell out to Carnival?  The European river cruises would appear to be more likely to restart operations than any line Carnival has, so what incentive would Carnival be able to offer to make an acquisition?  Or, would you suggest that Carnival offer an above market value price to acquire a river cruise line, so by costing even more in interest on the capital?

[bob brown]

I was always very happy to cruise a bit on the Hudson and St. Lawrence on the Rotterdam and Maasdam...between New York and Montreal....😊

[Mary229]

11 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Perhaps they could get more credit, but that simply exacerbates the money drain, as they would need to repay the interest on that additional credit.  The US is not even a blip on the river cruise market, but why do you think any existing river cruise line would sell out to Carnival?  The European river cruises would appear to be more likely to restart operations than any line Carnival has, so what incentive would Carnival be able to offer to make an acquisition?  Or, would you suggest that Carnival offer an above market value price to acquire a river cruise line, so by costing even more in interest on the capital?

CCL announced a new credit agreement yesterday.  I think it is more than funding a drain, they are actively positioning themselves. I think there will be more sales, more consolidation and more acquisitions.  Why would someone sell out?  Because they can and those Euro ships do rely heavily on the now non-existent US market.  When travel truly resumes people will be hesitant and no matter what people on these fora think CCL has the attention and trust of the North American traveler.  They have BRAND

Edited July 23, 2020 by Mary229

[npcl]

7 hours ago, Mary229 said:

CCL announced a new credit agreement yesterday.  I think it is more than funding a drain, they are actively positioning themselves. I think there will be more sales, more consolidation and more acquisitions.  Why would someone sell out?  Because they can and those Euro ships do rely heavily on the now non-existent US market.  When travel truly resumes people will be hesitant and no matter what people on these fora think CCL has the attention and trust of the North American traveler.  They have BRAND

It is funding the drain.  At their burn rate they will need every cent they can get just to survive.  Considering the amount of increased debt load they are going to have enough problems paying the interest on their debt when they can start cruising again.  Any major delay in restarting going into 2021 and they may need to restructure.

 

They have brand in mostly mass market lines at price points substantially less than charged by river cruises.  The primary reason that those ocean going lines that have expanded into river cruises have been the luxury lines such as crystal that already have price points in the range of river cruises.

Edited July 23, 2020 by npcl