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Belfast Taxman

European cruise companies go bust

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Not immediately relevant to Regent, but the last few weeks have seen a number of European cruise companies go bust.

Spanish company Pullmantour, Baltic cruise and ferry line Silja, and now British company CMV. These companies all predominantly cruised in Europe and to be honest not in the same part of the overall market as Regent but company analysts are quite openly predicting that this is just the start of a conveyor belt of bankruptcy and overall reduction of capacity. One commentator suggests a 30% reduction of ships being operated until 2022 with those ships that do operate only doing so at less than 50% of passenger numbers.

i imagine even some of the bigger lines could go soon

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I’m afraid more bankruptcy and consolidations could happen especially if there is a resurgence or 2nd wave of COVID-19 in the fall/winter as predicted by the “experts”. IMHO we will need a effective vaccine for cruising to come back at all and that likely won’t be until sometime in 2021 at the earliest.

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IN the US,, there is no “second wave” as the first wave has fired up again. At this point, I will let no cruise line have any of my money. I will not book, and will not buy any of their stocks and bonds issues. I have come to suspect strongly that they cannot obtain bookings sufficient to keep them afloat until there is a vaccine, and it is widely available. Can the lines last this out? I don’t know. 

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I agree, we aren’t in a 2nd wave, that may come later this year. I believe that a vaccine(s) will become available late this year or early next year but that is just the start of the process. Manufacturing can ramp up fairly quickly but giving the vaccine to people by medical professionals will take months, especially if it will take more than 1 dosage. Look how long it is taking just to give the COVID tests today and then extrapolate up to 328 million people waiting in lines to get the vaccine or 656 people if it takes 2 shots. We will also have a shortage of medical staff helping hospitalized patients with the flu and COVID-19. I think we are in for a very difficult winter.

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