What Criteria Will You Use to Conclude It Is Safe To Cruise Again

[CruisetheCs]

17 hours ago, tennis said:

Those eager to cruise again and interested in data would find it interesting what the CDC posted on their website this week.  Guess how many of the US deaths attributed to Covid-19 had only Covid-19 listed on the death certificate.  Would you guess maybe 40 - 50 %?  No, the total was 6%!  Only 6%.  In addition the average # of comorbidities listed on the death certificates was 2.6.  So over 50% of those that have died had at least 2 other serious diseases.  If you go to the site you might also like to look at the actual data on total deaths versus time. It has really tailed-off.  I haven’t seen any of this data reported in the news.  This is very encouraging news and maybe if it got publicized we can back to normal sooner rather than later.

 

 

Covid has widely been reported to have worse outcomes for those who are older and who have pre-existing conditions.  So I'm not sure why one would expect that half the cases would not have some other condition listed on a death certificate.  

 

Covid's effects on the body are diverse such as causing blood clotting.  Blood clotting can cause calamitous conditions in nearly in every part of the body.  So death certificates will rightly indicate that a patient had multiple diagnoses or conditions.  How these should all be listed is outlined in a CDC publication: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvss/vsrg/vsrg03-508.pdf  

 

There is an explanation I saw this morning about the meaning of 6% figure reported by CDC:

https://www.kmov.com/why-its-misleading-to-say-only-6-of-covid-19-deaths-are-caused-by-the/article_a4c19a99-7a77-5000-b77f-984398ea94a8.html

 

 In addition, the mortality figures say nothing about long term sequelae of Covid infections.  It is well known that some Covid survivors may suffer long term effects, though I have not yet seen reliable data on the type and incidence of these effects.

 

So I do not understand how any of this news is encouraging?  

 

[mrlevin]

24 minutes ago, CruisetheCs said:

It is well known that some Covid survivors may suffer long term effects, though I have not yet seen reliable data on the type and incidence of these effects.

 

So I do not understand how any of this news is encouraging?  

 

 

Ok, I'll take the bait; with no one in USA having the disease longer than six months how could there being ANY data on long term effects??

 

Secondly, why in the hell are we talking about this on a cruise forum????

[greykitty]

@mrlevin, here's one article on what we're learning about long term effects of COVID 19.  There are quite a few other articles along the same line, discussing effects past the initial acute phase.

 

"I think it's an argument for why we take this disease so seriously," says Dr. Poland. "People who are thinking, especially young people: '(It's a) mild disease, you know. I might not even have any symptoms, and I'm over it.' Whoa. The data is suggesting otherwise. There's evidence of myocardial damage, cardiomyopathy, arrhythmias, decreased ejection fractions, pulmonary scarring and strokes.

 

"And then in the more acute phase, extending out for a month or two, has been this really interesting issue of coagulation abnormalities, which have been responsible for both small-vessel and large-vessel arterial and venous occlusions. So this can be a really wicked virus in some people," says Dr. Poland.

 

"We're going to see more and more of the longer-term consequences come out, and we're going to need to study those as vigorously as we did the acute symptoms. Catalog them, understand them and then do clinical trials to figure out how best to treat them," says Dr. Poland.

 

https://newsnetwork.mayoclinic.org/discussion/long-term-symptoms-complications-of-covid-19/

 

And, why discuss on a recreational travel board? I think people keep hoping if they can find hard data that says COVID is overstated, quickly opening everything that includes meetings of large groups, including cruises, should be ok.  It's understandable to me  - who wouldn't want to wake up and find out that the old 'normal' has returned.

[mrlevin]

6 minutes ago, greykitty said:

And, why discuss on a recreational travel board? I think people keep hoping if they can find hard data that says COVID is overstated, quickly opening everything that includes meetings of large groups, including cruises, should be ok.  It's understandable to me  - who wouldn't want to wake up and find out that the old 'normal' has returned.

 

So put this on that watercooler thread.  Amateurs spouting data on which they are not experts does nothing to solve anything.

[SusieQft]

"What Criteria Will You Use to Conclude It Is Safe To Cruise Again"

 

For me, when I think it is safe to sail without significant risk to my health from COVID-19.  And when I think the cruise will be able to follow its itinerary without significant risk of being refused in ports, quarantined, etc. due to real or merely perceived COVID-19.

 

COVID-19 seems to be the very basis of this thread, although I do understand that we are all pretty fed up with it by now.

[CruisetheCs]

 

15 minutes ago, SusieQft said:

"What Criteria Will You Use to Conclude It Is Safe To Cruise Again"

 

For me, when I think it is safe to sail without significant risk to my health from COVID-19.  And when I think the cruise will be able to follow its itinerary without significant risk of being refused in ports, quarantined, etc. due to real or merely perceived COVID-19.

 

COVID-19 seems to be the very basis of this thread, although I do understand that we are all pretty fed up with it by now.

 

Agree with SusieQft.  

 

Many of us posters are trying to assess the risks of cruising and the risks that we can tolerate.  If someone posts that cruising is not as risky as one might think or it is riskier than most think, or we should consider other risk factors,  I don't see what the problem is.

 

As for "amateurs spouting data" about Covid safety issues on cruises, the discussion here doesn't seem much different than what occurs on many other Regent threads such as those discussing Norovirus outbreaks or cleanliness or safety of Regent ships and excursions.

[Pcardad]

Suggest you get medical advice from your doctor....and investment advice from your investment advisor......and specific info about cruises where money is on the line from your TA.

 

For all the other nonsense that puts a smile on your face or vodka in your glass, you have us.

[latserrof]

2 hours ago, mrlevin said:

 

So put this on that watercooler thread.  Amateurs spouting data on which they are not experts does nothing to solve anything.

Ignore.

[tennis]

For clarification:

 

1) I do not quote secondary sources for data. The data quoted is not from some unknown website but from the CDC - look it up if you want.  It takes time and some tenacity but I am used to data analysis.  As they say, you can have your own opinion but not your own facts.  I use t-tests to determine if there are significant differences between populations.

 

2) I do not use estimates or guesses (like the comment that the CDC thinks deaths are understated).  This is not data and based on nothing more than someone’s opinion.

 

3) I posted information that I thought would be encouraging to most people.  Based on what I have read on this post I have been doing a lot more travel than most others and so my info on what most North Americans are doing while traveling would not necessarily be observed by others.  If anyone has multiple serious diseases, then by all means take the necessary precautions that are suitable for your personal situation and follow your doctor’s advice.  But having facts is usually helpful in making decisions about when you might cruise again.

 

I was very encouraged by the data and information and thought it would be encouraging to others.  If you do not find it encouraging, fine but do not question my source of data.  If I state it is from the CDC then it is from CDC.gov and not my opinion.

 

[flossie009]

2 hours ago, SusieQft said:

And when I think the cruise will be able to follow its itinerary without significant risk of being refused in ports, quarantined, etc. due to real or merely perceived COVID-19.

+1

I agree that this is the main impediment to cruising re-commencing.

 

More governments need to feel comfortable to re-open their borders to tourists, without quarantine, and their ports to cruise ships. 

 

The UK FCO advice regarding travel at this time seems wise:  “Developments in the coronavirus pandemic remain uncertain around the world. No travel is risk-free“

.............. and when they refer to risk it is not just the risk of catching the virus but more the risk of being stranded by quarantines or travel disruptions.

Edited August 31, 2020 by flossie009

[latserrof]

30 minutes ago, tennis said:

 The data quoted is not from some unknown website but from the CDC - look it up if you want.  It takes time and some tenacity but I am used to data analysis. 

 

 

It might help others if you posted a link.

 

Personally, I did not find the data or info encouraging. As a high-risk safer-at-home, I did appreciate the account of your travels, but it is anecdotal, and national parks, airports and airliners are not cruise ships -- far from it. I did note that a small number of people you saw were not following guidelines, and I would not expect the behavior to be any better on a cruise.

Edited August 31, 2020 by latserrof

[flossie009]

42 minutes ago, tennis said:

 If you do not find it encouraging, fine but do not question my source of data.  If I state it is from the CDC then it is from CDC.gov and not my opinion.

Your positive analysis of the data forms your opinion ............. which may or may not be shared by all.

 

It is not just a question of when individuals feel encouraged to travel but also when cruise lines are able to provide the cruises that we may desire.

[GrJ Berkshire]

23 hours ago, tennis said:

Those eager to cruise again and interested in data would find it interesting what the CDC posted on their website this week.  Guess how many of the US deaths attributed to Covid-19 had only Covid-19 listed on the death certificate.  Would you guess maybe 40 - 50 %?  No, the total was 6%!  Only 6%.  In addition the average # of comorbidities listed on the death certificates was 2.6.  So over 50% of those that have died had at least 2 other serious diseases.  If you go to the site you might also like to look at the actual data on total deaths versus time. It has really tailed-off.  I haven’t seen any of this data reported in the news.  This is very encouraging news and maybe if it got publicized we can back to normal sooner rather than later.

 

On another topic, there have been several comments related to people following mask and other guidelines onboard cruise ships. We have returned from our trip to Yellowstone and the Grand Tetons.  Everyone we saw in airports or on planes wore masks without prompting.  We were on 4 different flights and they were all packed.  Everyone we saw in Yellowstone complied with indoor requirements, even using hand sanitizer upon entering   Around Old Faithful it was very crowded and some people did not comply with the 6 ft or mask rule But if you wanted to distance yourself it was easy.  Nowhere else in the park did we see spacing or mask requirements violated.  In Jackson we saw 2 people not comply with mask requirements and in one case the store clerk immediately told them to put on a mask.  There were lots of people in both parks and so compliance with the requirements was very high.  Hopefully this would be the same on cruise ships and is reassuring to everyone.

If the states is similar to the UK the causes of death on a certificate are often misleading. My mother passed away 5 years ago having suffered from Alzheimers which got progressively worse over 10 years. Her death certificate mentioned 3 other things which eventually killed her, but we all know in the family that the dementia / alzheimers was the underlying cause and factor. But in years to come this would not be reflected by statistics  and so will go unreported without looking into the back story. I asked for it to be added to the death certificate but was told that a change from the doctors report would cause delay and stop the release of the body for the funeral, I backed down as unless I was prepared to pay another Doctor, or had medical qualifications myself ( I don't) it would not change.

Statistics can be misleading and are often inaccurate !!! BEWARE....................

 

[seaknots]

10 minutes ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

Statistics can be misleading

[CruzC2C]

"I was very encouraged by the data and information and thought it would be encouraging to others.  If you do not find it encouraging, fine but do not question my source of data.  If I state it is from the CDC then it is from CDC.gov and not my opinion".

 

I appreciate the information you provided.  Thank you.

[D C]

5 hours ago, SusieQft said:

"What Criteria Will You Use to Conclude It Is Safe To Cruise Again"

 

For me, when I think it is safe to sail without significant risk to my health from COVID-19.  And when I think the cruise will be able to follow its itinerary without significant risk of being refused in ports, quarantined, etc. due to real or merely perceived COVID-19.

 

COVID-19 seems to be the very basis of this thread, although I do understand that we are all pretty fed up with it by now.

I appreciate the perspective! I'm not sure though that following the itinerary is that important at this point for us. And of course it depends on the itinerary but we have yet-another cruise to Cozumel scheduled.   We sleep in, get off the ship, have lunch and a big delicious margarita at a local restaurant where we can look at the ship from the outside.  Then we get back on the ship and have a margarita where we can look at the restaurant where we were just having a margarita while looking at the ship 

 

If we skipped all that and just had 2 margaritas on the ship we'd be ok.  🙂

 

ie, we're cruising more for the ship than the ports.  Although there are some ports/itineraries that we'd be disappointed to miss. 

Edited September 1, 2020 by D C

[flossie009]

For those interested in how another cruise-line is handling cruises in these difficult times, there is a "live from" blog on the MSC Board.

I believe the ship is now on its fourth 7-day cruise:

 

Plus this article gives information on those cruise-lines operating now or about to re-commence:

https://www.cruiseindustrynews.com/cruise-news/23461-here-are-the-cruise-ships-back-in-service.html

 

[Got2Cruise]

Flossie thanks for posting the link to the live thread on the MSC sailing. The poster is doing a fantastic job posting photos and commentary. I think this protocol is a workable first step to open cruising. The ship seems empty. I’m not certain the percent of capacity is sailing. 

 

I was LOL because there are a bunch of posters who are not on the cruise nitpicking every little thing. Nobody is forcing you to go! 

 

Also if others are not aware MSC has a luxury tier on all their ships called the Yacht Club.