What Criteria Will You Use to Conclude It Is Safe To Cruise Again

[Bellaggio Cruisers]

25 minutes ago, rallydave said:

Agree with you Sheila but, am concerned if a company does not follow fairly simple rules like you described, how can they be expected to follow the critical protocols that are coming.

 

As I said, hope I am incorrect and ready to be proven wrong once cruising begins.

Because whatever the protocols are....critical, simple or complicated.... if they are not followed exactly as written, the company will be out of business. I believe they can not afford to shut down again. It’s over for the industry.  
sheila

[rallydave]

16 minutes ago, Bellaggio Cruisers said:

Because whatever the protocols are....critical, simple or complicated.... if they are not followed exactly as written, the company will be out of business. I believe they can not afford to shut down again. It’s over for the industry.  
sheila

Again completely agree with you.   And, all cruise lines need to exactly follow the written protocols.  Unfortunately we now have several cruise lines who have tried and failed to start cruising again.  Realize they are not Regent but, only takes one cruise line to not follow the protocols to ruin things for everyone.

 

Sincerely hope these mistakes as the Hurtagaten CEO acknowledged are reviewed by every CEO and steps are taken to not repeat the last few days.

 

Just saw a news article that was posted on the Paul Gauguin board in French that I translated and it appears from the article that the Air Tahiti Nui person who was infected is not at all related to the Paul Gauguin passenger.  The flight person had returned to Tahiti from Paris and upon return tested positive so impossible to be related to the American who tested positive.

Edited August 5, 2020 by rallydave

[Bellaggio Cruisers]

Just now, rallydave said:

Again completely agree with you.   And, all cruise lines need to exactly follow the written protocols.  Unfortunately we now have several cruise lines who have tried and failed to start cruising again.  Realize they are not Regent but, only takes one cruise line to not follow the protocols to ruin things for everyone.

 

Sincerely hope these mistakes as the Hurtagaten CEO acknowledged are reviewed by every CEO and steps are taken to not repeat the last few days.

Absolutely agree!

[DaveFr]

As a supplement to the original question, I note that all five Regent ships are now outside the jurisdiction of the US.  Assuming the ships do not plan to return to US waters during the time the CDC no sail order is in effect, the no sail order would be moot as to Regent.  So if Regent could get the necessary permissions and work out the logistics, their ships could sail now.  Would this assumed fact make any difference in any answers to the original question?

 

When you know what hit the fan because of the Covid-19 pandemic, I've wondered what would happen if there were daily seasonal influenza statistics on cases, hospitalizations and deaths as we see for Covid-19.  Would the governmental and public responses be similar to what we have seen with Covid-19? Or would the fact that there is a yearly vaccine of varying efficacy make a significant difference?

 

Dave

[greykitty]

Well, as Frank del Rio was quoted:

 

The CDC only has jurisdiction over cruise ships sailing in U.S. waters, of course, which prompted TPG to ask about the possibility of Norwegian’s brands starting up earlier overseas.

 

“We could,” Del Rio said. “But realize that the CDC has a long arm. It’s not certain how far their jurisdiction goes. It may affect American citizens traveling to far-flung places.”

https://thepointsguy.com/news/norwegian-cruise-ceo-frank-del-rio-future-of-cruising/

Although it would be riveting to watch if any of the Big 3 tried an end run around the CDC, IMO.   Now, if NCLH only had non-US citizens on board, hmm...

 

[Dolebludger]

There are stats on how many people in the US die from the flu each year. I’ve seen them, but can’t recall the exact numbers. But those annual figures for the flu are far less than the five month figures for COVID 19.  Further, a significant number of people don’t get the yearly flu vaccination. These death numbers for flu would be far lower if they did.

 

Also, though many cruises do not use US ports, many other countries have similar “no sail” rules in place at present.

Edited August 5, 2020 by Dolebludger

[Travelcat2]

According to the CDC - since 2010 - the average number of influenza cases per year in the United States is between 140,000 and 810,000.  Deaths in the same period average from 12,000-61,000 per year.  

 

Unfortunately, we may see the same number of people in the U.S. not choosing to take the Covid-19 vaccine as those that will not take the flu vaccine.  

[Dolebludger]

Thanks for the statistics I couldn’t recall. If COVID deaths continue at present rates, the annualized deaths (March 20 to March 21) could hit 350,000. 

[tennis]

Unfortunately most people do not realize how the CDC calculates flu deaths.  It is based on what they calculate as “excess” deaths.  They calculate how many people would “normally” die for each week and then use an algorithm to calculate excess deaths.  That is why it is important to compare total deaths.  The way that the CDC is doing it the comparison of flu deaths to Covid-19 is comparing apples to oranges.  I have done the statistics to compare annual deaths in SC.  There is not a significant difference between deaths this year and the previous 2 years.  Also, hospitals get a bonus reimbursement if Covid-19 comes into play but do not for flu deaths.  Do you think there may be some bias in reporting of Covid-19 deaths?  I am disappointed that if I can download the data from the CDC and spend my own time doing the statistical analysis that our vaunted media outlets are unable to do the same.  As the hackneyed statement goes “if it bleeds. It leads”.

[Kwaj girl]

3 minutes ago, tennis said:

Unfortunately most people do not realize how the CDC calculates flu deaths.  It is based on what they calculate as “excess” deaths.  They calculate how many people would “normally” die for each week and then use an algorithm to calculate excess deaths.  That is why it is important to compare total deaths.  The way that the CDC is doing it the comparison of flu deaths to Covid-19 is comparing apples to oranges.  I have done the statistics to compare annual deaths in SC.  There is not a significant difference between deaths this year and the previous 2 years.  Also, hospitals get a bonus reimbursement if Covid-19 comes into play but do not for flu deaths.  Do you think there may be some bias in reporting of Covid-19 deaths?  I am disappointed that if I can download the data from the CDC and spend my own time doing the statistical analysis that our vaunted media outlets are unable to do the same.  As the hackneyed statement goes “if it bleeds. It leads”.

 

 

Gotta have drama .....or it won't sell!

[Travelcat2]

2 minutes ago, tennis said:

Unfortunately most people do not realize how the CDC calculates flu deaths.  It is based on what they calculate as “excess” deaths.  They calculate how many people would “normally” die for each week and then use an algorithm to calculate excess deaths.  That is why it is important to compare total deaths.  The way that the CDC is doing it the comparison of flu deaths to Covid-19 is comparing apples to oranges.  I have done the statistics to compare annual deaths in SC.  There is not a significant difference between deaths this year and the previous 2 years.  Also, hospitals get a bonus reimbursement if Covid-19 comes into play but do not for flu deaths.  Do you think there may be some bias in reporting of Covid-19 deaths?  I am disappointed that if I can download the data from the CDC and spend my own time doing the statistical analysis that our vaunted media outlets are unable to do the same.  As the hackneyed statement goes “if it bleeds. It leads”.

 

Your information is very interesting.  Not sure if it makes a difference that I only asked how many influenza deaths there are per year in the U.S. and did not mention Covid in my search.  

 

On the other hand, it is difficult to believe anything that is written in articles right now. We can find an article to support anyone's position.  Just wish that everyone was on the same page.

 

 

[Dolebludger]

True that!

 

Here in LaPlata county CO, we have had 207 cases, 100 recoveries, 17 cases from other counties, and two deaths where COVID was involved, but cannot be proven as the total cause of death, as the person had other serious medical conditions. And to make matters more confusing, our major hospital has been refusing to give our health department their COVID - related statistics. When  this mess is over, I shall launch a campaign to have that hospital’s licensed revoked! (There are other problems with that hospital, including gross over-billing). 
 

What this means for this discussion is that it is true that we lack a system of accurately reporting cause of deaths. But still, the number of COVID 19 deaths is so far above those from the seasonal flu, it cannot be denied that it is a more serious matter. Even with the inherent problems with assigning a cause of death, most medical experts agree with me — that COVID 19 is more deadly than seasonal flu

[CruisetheCs]

I don't know that the Covid/flu comparisons make a great difference, especially in terms of travel.  There is a vaccine for the flu.  Would I travel during flu season if I didn't have a vaccine?  I think not.

 

It is clear that there are thousands and thousands of deaths in the USA  due to Covid over a few months.  Deaths will continue, and the death count overall will worsen during our traditional flu season.  Not clearly captured in all the data are the long term sequelae that result from Covid. There are reports of severe impairments in various organ systems, but I'm not aware of data yet that can give reliable numbers or reliably relate the long term effects to criteria such as age or various pre-existing conditions.

 

It is also clear that the major health organizations and the frontline doctors and nurses see this current pandemic as a health crisis no matter what the true death rate might prove to be.

At the present time Covid is not under control in the USA and the response from various government agencies is inadequate by not mandating masks and social distancing, among other preventive measures.

 

In reference to the question that started this thread, I will not cruise until masks and social distancing are no longer required and I feel that such a policy is scientifically based.  I suspect that time will not come until there is a vaccine and I have taken the vaccine. If masks and distancing are required, it means that Covid is still a significant risk, For me,  it means a major diminishment in the ability to enjoy much of what we take for granted about a cruise that others have mentioned on this thread.

 

 

 

[pappy1022]

15 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

 PG is not Regent and Air Tahiti does not represent all airlines.  One can not make valid assumptions without knowing the facts.  Was the flight attendant wearing a mask?  Were people sitting next to each other or was the middle seat left vacant?  What were the protocols on the ship?  

Here we go again with the argument that Regent is so different and the people on board will be 100% compliant with whatever regulations are in place. No one can state that with certainty because there is no proof that it will happen. If that is a hope, fine but it comes across as fact.

[pappy1022]

12 hours ago, Travelcat2 said:

 

Your information is very interesting.  Not sure if it makes a difference that I only asked how many influenza deaths there are per year in the U.S. and did not mention Covid in my search.  

 

On the other hand, it is difficult to believe anything that is written in articles right now. We can find an article to support anyone's position.  Just wish that everyone was on the same page.

 

 

It’s convenient to ignore articles that don’t agree with what you believe. That is human nature. But it seems to me that some believe that Regent is so much better than other cruise lines when it comes to managing COVID-19 that stories about outbreaks on ships or protocols put in place don’t apply to Regent. Believe what you will but please don’t express them like facts.

[Guerncruising]

Facts need to be evidence based. 

[Sascol]

On ‎8‎/‎3‎/‎2020 at 6:13 PM, tennis said:

There is a risk to everyday living and the risk of dying from Covid-19 is not significantly higher, despite all the CDC and press hysteria to the contrary.  I live in SC and personally know only 1 person that Has tested positive for Covid-19 and they had mild symptoms.

 

Awesome! So even though the health risk is low to YOU if you catch it, you can still be infected with mild to no symptoms and not worry about getting very ill all the while spreading the virus to others who are in the very categories you mention.  This is why the virus keeps spreading.   Kudos to you.

[Got2Cruise]

15 hours ago, Kwaj girl said:

 

 

Gotta have drama .....or it won't sell!

This is a world wide pandemic. Or are you denying that it is?

[Got2Cruise]

2 hours ago, Sascol said:

 

Awesome! So even though the health risk is low to YOU if you catch it, you can still be infected with mild to no symptoms and not worry about getting very ill all the while spreading the virus to others who are in the very categories you mention.  This is why the virus keeps spreading.   Kudos to you.

Agreed. Statistics don’t lie. And since Covid 19 is a novel virus it means nobody really knows what damage it does to your body. 

 

 

[Dolebludger]

And further, there is still no way to predict the demographic that is more likely to become seriously ill or die from COVID.

[mrlevin]

4 minutes ago, Dolebludger said:

And further, there is still no way to predict the demographic that is more likely to become seriously ill or die from COVID.

 

I strongly disagree; if you don't "catch" the disease you cannot become seriously ill or die.  So, the demographic that don't "catch" the disease will fair best. 

[Kwaj girl]

38 minutes ago, Got2Cruise said:

This is a world wide pandemic. Or are you denying that it is?

 

Of COURSE it's worldwide.....but do we have to be inundated with numbers and statistics 24/7 as though there is no other valuable news to report?

[greykitty]

Well, Stephanie Meyer just released Book 5 in the Twilight series?  Disney made some waves by planning to release Mulan on Disney+, rather than in theater, for $30 (oh, wait, that's COVID related).  

 

More seriously, hard to think of a human activity not materially affected by the pandemic....although even pandemic fatigue, understandable as it is, is actually news.

[Travelcat2]

2 hours ago, Kwaj girl said:

 

Of COURSE it's worldwide.....but do we have to be inundated with numbers and statistics 24/7 as though there is no other valuable news to report?

 

Yes - we are also tired of hearing about numbers and statistics 24/7.  My DH watches the news off and on all day and we watch together for 1 hour in the evening.  Soon it will be numbers, statistics and voting information (not trying to turn this into a political discussion).  

 

It seems that you can't say anything on the boards right now without getting bashed.  So sad!

[pappy1022]

On 8/5/2020 at 12:44 PM, Travelcat2 said:

 

You are likely correct - I did not think of that.  I tend to recommend going to the G.M. He/she can direct the property department to take care of the situation.

Please stick to the topic as you often say to others.