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I have zero confidence in any cruise line to place my health and safety ahead of their financial interests-mass market, premium, whatever.   Here is just one example of why.  

 

http://icepeople.net/2020/08/05/listicle-ten-reasons-the-covid-19-outbreak-aboard-the-hurtigruten-cruise-ship-roald-amundsen-is-controversial/

Edited by iancal
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36 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

...

 

At the same time, of course, I recognize the concept of "strength in numbers." But, I remain convinced that some lines (particularly in the premium/luxury industry segments) will emerge from the Covid mess "beaten but not broken" if only because their regular clientele will be able to absorb the cost increases required to keep the CDC happy and the ships afloat.

 

I cannot say the same for the mass market lines. And therein lies the conundrum of CLIA membership at this point in time.

Good point — low cost cruising, as practiced increasingly by mass market lines up until advent of COVID, is unlikely to come back unchanged.  Increased precautions, including allowing for distancing among staff as well as passengers, plus intensified cleaning procedures will necessitate fare increases which may substantially decrease popularity of cruising as a mass market activity.

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17 hours ago, evandbob said:

It's not just Mexico having unreported COVID cases.  It's world wide and even here in the USA.  M.I.T. estimates cases in the USA are under reported by a factor of almost 12.

 

Reported Covid Cases USA: just over 4.8 MILLION.......under reported 12 factor = 57 Million USA cases

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/medical-advances/505409-coronavirus-cases-may-be-widely-underreported

 

Reported COVID cases Mexico: 449,000....under reported factor 20 = 9 Million 

 https://www.coronatracker.com/country/mexico/

 

So if you think Mexico has mismanaged COVID, you can say the USA is a disaster with how our caseload and death rate is leading the world.

 

 

The data does not support your conclusion regarding the US leading the death rate.  Read this from NPR regarding relative deaths around the world.  The UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Belgium all are "ahead" of the US on deaths / 100k.  

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

 

US, while bad at managing the spread, seems good at treatment as described by this excerpt.

 

"Among the 45 countries with over 50,000 cases, the U.S. has the 24th-highest case fatality ratio. And the U.S. rate of 3.3% is much lower than that of the U.K. at 15.1% or Italy at 14.2%.

 

So despite the daily death toll of 1,000 in the U.S., there is some truth to Trump's assertion that the low case fatality ratio is a positive sign in the United States."

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1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

 

The data does not support your conclusion regarding the US leading the death rate.  Read this from NPR regarding relative deaths around the world.  The UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Belgium all are "ahead" of the US on deaths / 100k.  

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

 

US, while bad at managing the spread, seems good at treatment as described by this excerpt.

 

"Among the 45 countries with over 50,000 cases, the U.S. has the 24th-highest case fatality ratio. And the U.S. rate of 3.3% is much lower than that of the U.K. at 15.1% or Italy at 14.2%.

 

So despite the daily death toll of 1,000 in the U.S., there is some truth to Trump's assertion that the low case fatality ratio is a positive sign in the United States."

So, you think that the US - with a supposedly high standard of living - ranking just about the middle range of case fatality rate, is encouraging news?  So, we are just about average in treatment but terrible in handling contagion —- that is NOT any kind of a positive situation.

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1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

 

So despite the daily death toll of 1,000 in the U.S., there is some truth to Trump's assertion that the low case fatality ratio is a positive sign in the United States."

The fatalities aren't the only covid story. You are ignoring the covib morbidity. Sure, folks may not die but many are experiencing long term health problems and even permanent lung damage, heart damage, etc.

 

With the US not having universal healthcare,  thousands are looking at crippling healthcare costs. 

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1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

 

The data does not support your conclusion regarding the US leading the death rate.  Read this from NPR regarding relative deaths around the world.  The UK, Spain, Italy, Sweden, Belgium all are "ahead" of the US on deaths / 100k.  

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsandsoda/2020/08/05/899365887/charts-how-the-u-s-ranks-on-covid-19-deaths-per-capita-and-by-case-count

 

US, while bad at managing the spread, seems good at treatment as described by this excerpt.

 

"Among the 45 countries with over 50,000 cases, the U.S. has the 24th-highest case fatality ratio. And the U.S. rate of 3.3% is much lower than that of the U.K. at 15.1% or Italy at 14.2%.

 

So despite the daily death toll of 1,000 in the U.S., there is some truth to Trump's assertion that the low case fatality ratio is a positive sign in the United States."

But the US ranks 10th in deaths per capita. And while 5 of those above the US have it pretty much under control, the US number of deaths per 1 million is steadily rising.

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2 hours ago, navybankerteacher said:

So, you think that the US - with a supposedly high standard of living - ranking just about the middle range of case fatality rate, is encouraging news?  So, we are just about average in treatment but terrible in handling contagion —- that is NOT any kind of a positive situation.

 

I was simply responding to a claim that  said the US had the highest "death rate in the world."  If the person indicated that US had the absolute highest number of deaths reported by a nation I would have accepted that as fact even though it doesn't provide a complete picture which the NPR story unpacks somewhat.  I am not sure how you are suggesting I am painting a positive picture with respect to COVID.  I am simply providing information back to support what I viewed was an inaccurate statement.

 

I actually indicated in my post that the US has done a poor job in slowing the spread.  A lot of this is cultural which I have posted about previously.  Unwillingness to take this seriously cuts across all levels and groups within the US society is amazing.  From the CEO of Goldman hosting a huge charity event, to the armed protesters in the Michigan state capital, to the ANTIFA rioters in Portland and Seattle, to house parties in Chicago and Atlanta as well as Colorado rodeos and concerts,  etc.  All elements and groups in society haven't simply been willing to do what it takes to "slow the spread."

 

I also note that as a large, interconnected nation we have little legal or physical ability to shut things down.  Recent measures like the re-isolation of Victoria and Melbourne  from the rest of Australia just can't happen here in the same manner.  I believe any legal individual has freedom of movement in the US except if Marshall Law was to be declared nationally.  Can you imagine the "Trump is a dictator screams?"  I would also note that the two best states in controlling COVID in the US are Alaska and Hawaii where physical separation makes control easier.  Heck, we have  intentionally not controlled our Southern border for years, so why would COVID slow down interstate travel? 

 

2 hours ago, cruizergal70 said:

The fatalities aren't the only covid story. You are ignoring the covib morbidity. Sure, folks may not die but many are experiencing long term health problems and even permanent lung damage, heart damage, etc.

 

With the US not having universal healthcare,  thousands are looking at crippling healthcare costs. 

 

Another thread on this board indicated that hospitals are coding COVID to maximize payments.  You can bet if COVID was involved it is being coded as such by all US health organizations.

 

In terms of universal care, I would note that the death rates / case are much higher in many "rich" countries when compared against the US experience. The UK, Spain, Sweden, France, Belgium, Canada, Netherlands all have much higher death rates per reported case.  It's good news that these countries have done better as the death rate per case in the UK is almost 5 times higher than the US.  Even our neighbors in Canada are reporting a death rate per case twice as high as the US.

 

Again, I make this point separately form the case spread in the US which has been horrible and I have posted about previously and above.

 

You are correct that there is still a downstream health cost to be paid.  I think it will take time to truly understand what that final cost will be.

 

2 hours ago, electro said:

But the US ranks 10th in deaths per capita. And while 5 of those above the US have it pretty much under control, the US number of deaths per 1 million is steadily rising.

 

Agreed, the case rate is still going up and this will influence rates overtime.   I truly hope that people start paying attention and really take it seriously - especially the young.  Unfortunately I am not too optimistic at this point but I hope I am proven wrong.

Edited by SelectSys
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There are a few problems with the OP's idea.  Mexico currently is going through its own major problem with COVID-19.  The OP also needs to consider the logistics of preparing a large ship for cruising which means having access to lots of supplies and certain skilled workers (who repair various onboard items while the ship is in port).  If you have ever watched a ship on its turn around day in a major port like Miami or Port Everglades, you might noticed that there is tremendous activity from the moment of docking until embarkation.  In fact, we have had many delayed departures (generally for 1-3 hours) because extra time is needed to load necessary supplies.  Cozumel certainly does not have the infrastructure to support such activities.  The Port of Barbados (where they do have some decent infrastructure) could probably handle a few extra ships a week although any cruiser would have to comply with the existing travel restrictions to that island.

 

But folks need to be clear that the CDC rules when it comes to major cruise activity in our hemisphere.  The reality is that until the CDC (and other involved US/local agencies) clear ships for cruising the industry will remain closed on our side of the big pond.   And while there are many cruise fans (including me) who are eager to resume their cruise life, many folks are too risk adverse to step on a ship during the current pandemic.  As we point out, cruisers need to factor-in the risk that a single person (crew or passenger) gets COVID on their vessel.  If that happens it is likely that everyone on the ship would need to be quarantined for at least 2 weeks.  Most folks cannot spare that extra time and there is also the issue of who will pay the extra costs.  Also keep in mind that nearly all the travel insurance and travel medical insurance now exclude medical costs related to any pandemic (including COVID).

 

Hank

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17 hours ago, SelectSys said:

Another thread on this board indicated that hospitals are coding COVID to maximize payments.  You can bet if COVID was involved it is being coded as such by all US health organizations.

 

 

Maximize payments from whom? This sounds like a conspiracy theory being pushed to deny that people are actually getting sick from Covid.  So every hospital is now OPENLY and PUBLICLY committing Medicare, Medicaid, and insurance fraud by intentionally miscoding patients?

 

By the way, Covid is new. How do you know that the reimbursement rates (based on coding) are higher for Covid? Covid doesn't present as a single thing. Any insurance company involved in reimbursement would want to mitigate their payouts. I seriously doubt that all the insurers in the last 3-4 months just added a high dollar Covid reimbursement. 

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4 hours ago, K32682 said:


How "positive" is it that in America far more people are getting the virus but fewer of them on a percentage basis are dying when in many other developed countries far fewer people are dying of the virus because they are not getting it in the first place? 

 

In many nations including mine there was a more intelligent response leading to reduced community transmission.  As a result the greatest impact of the virus was in long term care facilities and retirement homes. Meanwhile, the free-for-all in America has resulted in younger people being infected who are better able to survive than those who are elderly and have pre-existing health conditions.

 

Last week Canada had 2,710 new cases and 39 deaths. During the same time the United States of America had 388,567 new cases and 7,302 new deaths.  America has 9 times the population but 143 times new cases and 187 new deaths.  

 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region

 

 

 

Take up your issue with respect to the use of the word positive with NPR as that was a direct quote from them.

 

All nations have strengths and weaknesses including the US and Canada.  The US has always been a messy place and its "free-for-all" nature has created many things both good and bad.  In my opinion, the good definitely outweighs the bad as people still want to come here and "make their fortune."

 

In terms of controlling COVID the spread, the US hasn't been good at all as I have discussed. In terms of managing the spread it has been much better in Canada.  Congratulations to the Canadian government and public in managing COVID.  This is a good thing.  

 

3 hours ago, cruizergal70 said:

Maximize payments from whom? This sounds like a conspiracy theory being pushed to deny that people are actually getting sick from Covid.  So every hospital is now OPENLY and PUBLICLY committing Medicare, Medicaid, and insurance fraud by intentionally miscoding patients?

 

By the way, Covid is new. How do you know that the reimbursement rates (based on coding) are higher for Covid? Covid doesn't present as a single thing. Any insurance company involved in reimbursement would want to mitigate their payouts. I seriously doubt that all the insurers in the last 3-4 months just added a high dollar Covid reimbursement. 

 

Huh?   I just don't understand why you feel compelled to attribute such wild claims like all organizations are committing fraud and engaging in conspiracy to me?  I never said any such thing.

 

I can't remember whom, but I think someone of the  Cruisecritic board with experience in insurance said that all organizations  code things to maximize payments.  As such, I view this as healthcare organizations maximizing their economic self interest and its not  even illegal.  Nothing new here as it relates to COVID.

 

In terms of COVID payment rates, it seems the CARES act has created conditions for favorable payments to providers.  See these links:

https://healthpayerintelligence.com/news/private-payer-covid-19-reimbursement-rates-are-twice-medicare-rates

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/04/24/fact-check-medicare-hospitals-paid-more-covid-19-patients-coronavirus/3000638001/

 

 

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8 hours ago, cruizergal70 said:

Maximize payments from whom? This sounds like a conspiracy theory being pushed to deny that people are actually getting sick from Covid.  So every hospital is now OPENLY and PUBLICLY committing Medicare, Medicaid, and insurance fraud by intentionally miscoding patients?

 

By the way, Covid is new. How do you know that the reimbursement rates (based on coding) are higher for Covid? Covid doesn't present as a single thing. Any insurance company involved in reimbursement would want to mitigate their payouts. I seriously doubt that all the insurers in the last 3-4 months just added a high dollar Covid reimbursement. 

 

I am having trouble following your comment.  Are you suggesting that your health insurance has some kind of covid exclusion?   Or that you health insurance bene's are reduced for covid as say compared to another illness like pneumonia?   With relatively few exceptions health insurance policies pay a stated portion of hospital bills regardless of the illness.  Does your policy not do this?   

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There needs to be developed, if it is possible to do so, a Covid test that is sufficiently reliable whose results that can be determined within minutes.  Without such a test, our travel future is bleak, I think. 

 

The Governor of Ohio experienced the results of a test that was unable to do so on August 6th.  Prior to meeting President Trump, our Governor was tested and found to be positive for Covid.  He returned to his home and began a period of quarantine.  A second test and then a third test in the past 24 hours showed that he DID NOT have Covid.  

 

I agree that testing should be done.  It's better than no testing.   But, the status of the type of testing now available is flawed and is not reliable.  

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11 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

There needs to be developed, if it is possible to do so, a Covid test that is sufficiently reliable whose results that can be determined within minutes.  Without such a test, our travel future is bleak, I think. 

 

The Governor of Ohio experienced the results of a test that was unable to do so on August 6th.  Prior to meeting President Trump, our Governor was tested and found to be positive for Covid.  He returned to his home and began a period of quarantine.  A second test and then a third test in the past 24 hours showed that he DID NOT have Covid.  

 

I agree that testing should be done.  It's better than no testing.   But, the status of the type of testing now available is flawed and is not reliable.  

And one false positive test like that would put a whole ship in quarantine!

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1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

And one false positive test like that would put a whole ship in quarantine!

 

Very true.

 

But one false negative puts the entire ship at risk of contracting the virus.

 

I think we can agree that more accurate, efficient and speedier testing is needed to avert these complications.

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35 minutes ago, evandbob said:

 

Very true.

 

But one false negative puts the entire ship at risk of contracting the virus.

 

I think we can agree that more accurate, efficient and speedier testing is needed to avert these complications.

But we need to insert some reality.  No test will ever be able to detect recent exposure.  It takes time for the virus to replicate and become detectable in a body.  Add to this the increased risk that every person takes when going from their home to the port.  So, without an effective vaccine or some other proof of immunity there is no reliable  cruise option.  I think a great example is the gentleman that tested positive on the small (35 passenger) Alaskan cruise.  He had previously tested negative, passed temperature checks and had no symptoms.  Apparently the Hurtigruten ship had related issues in that the crew had all been tested (negative) and yet they later had multiple positive cases among the crew.   You could also look at the example of Ohio's Governor Dewine who this week tested positive using the fast Abbott Antigen test (this is what is used for Whitehouse Staff).  But the following day he tested negative using a more accurate PCR test.  But after 1 positive and 1 negative (in 2 days) he is now supposed to get a third (PCR) test today.  None of these tests is perfect.  And keep in mind that the more accurate PCR tests can take several days for results since they must be analyzed in an approved lab.

 

It is difficult for we cruise lovers (and the cruise lines) to admit that there is no viable solution without a reliable vaccine.  And I keep coming back to the question (nobody wants to ask) of what if there is never a vaccine.  All the optimism about vaccines is simply rhetoric.  It was interesting to see the head of WHO say that there is no guarantee that there will ever be a vaccine.  And add to that comments from Dr Fauci and others that COVID is not likely to ever disappear.  

 

Hank

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2 hours ago, evandbob said:

 

Very true.

 

But one false negative puts the entire ship at risk of contracting the virus.

 

I think we can agree that more accurate, efficient and speedier testing is needed to avert these complications.

No one disagrees that a false negative will put many at risk. I brought up a false positive since no one was discussing it. 

 

I just saw this article that relates another problem with a false positive being reported (the Governor of Ohio).The problem is now the deniers of the reality of the virus have another reason to believe it's all a hoax.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ohio-governors-apparent-false-positive-troubles-health-experts-mindful-of-pandemic-deniers/ar-BB17HND4?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=edgsp

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2 hours ago, evandbob said:

 

very true.

I think we can agree that more accurate, efficient and speedier testing is needed to avert these complications.

 

A cure and a vaccine would be even nicer.  But accurate testing is a good start, and who knows, may be the only working reaction to COVID if a cure or vaccine does not eventualize.

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6 hours ago, Hlitner said:

It was interesting to see the head of WHO say that there is no guarantee that there will ever be a vaccine.  And add to that comments from Dr Fauci and others that COVID is not likely to ever disappear.  

 

We may need to learn to live with Covid just as we have learned to live with other hazards to our health. 

 

Every time we get into our car and pull out onto the road, there is a chance that we will not arrive back home alive.  

 

Every curb that I try to step over and catch the toe of my shoe on it may be the one that causes me to fall and injure myself or worse.  

 

Etc., Etc., and a whole lot more Etcs.!

 

I surely hope my view of a possible future of "life with Covid" is wrong.

 

 

 

 

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20 minutes ago, rkacruiser said:

 

We may need to learn to live with Covid just as we have learned to live with other hazards to our health. 

 

Every time we get into our car and pull out onto the road, there is a chance that we will not arrive back home alive.  

 

Every curb that I try to step over and catch the toe of my shoe on it may be the one that causes me to fall and injure myself or worse.  

 

Etc., Etc., and a whole lot more Etcs.!

 

I surely hope my view of a possible future of "life with Covid" is wrong.

 

 

 

 

I agree with you.  DW and I have already adopted our own version of what I call "intelligent living with COVID."  We recently took a 2 week vacation to South Carolina (Kiawah and Myrtle Beach) and used a combination of masks, social distancing, careful choosing of restaurants, etc.  The trip was wonderful as the beach was not crowded and our favorite restaurants were relatively empty (with adequate social distancing).  We are now planning a trip to Florida later this year which will replace a MSC cruise we just cancelled.

 

I do not believe that intelligent living with COVID includes any cruises at the current time!  I might be persuaded that it is relatively safe on a spacious small luxury vessel, but I think trying to cruise on a larger ship is just asking for big trouble.  Nothing we have heard from the cruise lines satisfies my own standards for COVID safety.  I had some hope until the last couple of weeks, but what we have seen in Europe and Alaska highlight the folly of restarting cruises.  I noted today that MSC got approval to start cruising (this month) with two large ships in Europe.  My instincts tell me that this will likely not be a pretty situation (I hope I am wrong) with happy endings.  But even if they were to get lucky and have no COVID on any of those cruises, the restrictions onboard and ashore would turn me off to cruising.

 

I will toss out one more thought/question for those who are sheltering in place.  How many years are you willing to live that way?

 

Hank

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2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

...

 

I will toss out one more thought/question for those who are sheltering in place.  How many years are you willing to live that way?

 

Hank

Why bring up a matter of years?  Can you identify ANY pandemic which did not die of its own weight?  14th Century Bubonic Plague, !919-20 flu pandemic, etc.  all died down. 

 

Sure, we may need, on an ongoing basis, to regularly wash hands and stay away from people who cough - particularly if they are loutish enough to not cover their mouths - but people with common sense will get through this, and who, once (as is highly likely) a vaccine is developed, get themselves vaccinated in due course, will look back on these 18 or so months as a bad time.

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58 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

Why bring up a matter of years?  Can you identify ANY pandemic which did not die of its own weight?  14th Century Bubonic Plague, !919-20 flu pandemic, etc.  all died down. 

 

Sure, we may need, on an ongoing basis, to regularly wash hands and stay away from people who cough - particularly if they are loutish enough to not cover their mouths - but people with common sense will get through this, and who, once (as is highly likely) a vaccine is developed, get themselves vaccinated in due course, will look back on these 18 or so months as a bad time.

I am not a big fan of the word "pandemic."  So lets look at viruses and how long they last.  Start with basic Influenza (actually several types)  which likely kills around 400-500,000 each year (we do not know the real number) around the world.  Measles has been around for over 1000 years and still kills over 100,000 per year despite the fact we have a very effective vaccine.  The so-called Spanish flu existed in a world where it took weeks to get from point A to point B and there was no such thing as an airplane.  

 

This is a new kind of situation,  For those that want to rely on Dr. Fauci and his colleges they are now saying this virus could be around forever (like measles and the flu).  The reason is, like the measles, it is very contagious.  If we get a decent vaccine then end of story.  Otherwise,, to paraphrase Churchill we not even be at the end of the beginning.  Those that champion closing society, schools, restaurants, etc.  how are they going to feel if we do this for 4 or 5 years or longer?  It can't happen?  Last December few would have thought we would have shut the world for 6 months.  Now the idea of keeping the schools and world closed for a year is not far fetched.  A year ago nobody would have thought the cruise industry would be shut down for 9 months.   But now, that industry will be shut for at least 9 months and likely much longer.  If we do not have a safe/effective vaccine a year from now?  Then what.  I have no clue as to how long this COVID thing will last, but I can guarantee that it will not end on Dec 1, Jan 1, or even June 1.

 

Hank

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I am not a big fan of the word "pandemic."  ...

 

This is a new kind of situation...

 

...

 

Those that champion closing society, schools, restaurants, etc.  how are they going to feel if we do this for 4 or 5 years or longer?  

 

Hank

 

 

When you say you are "...not a big fan of the word 'pandemic'..."  it sounds like you are protesting the word itself .  What term would you prefer to use to discuss the wide-ranging contagion we are now experiencing?  "Scourge" , "wrath of God",  "evil enchantment"?  Face it: we are experiencing a pandemic-- live with it -- and with the word which properly identifies it.

 

It is a new pandemic, but hardly a "new kind of situation".  As mentioned earlier, pandemics have occurred and will likely occur again.

 

No pandemic in the past has extended more than two or three years, so let's stop talking "...4 or 5 years or longer...".

It will pass - all pandemics in the past have passed - generally without the sort of world-wide effort we now see underway.

I believe you are suffering  from a touch of NOWISM (OH! GOSH! OH GEE! THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED, WHAT CAN WE DO?)

 

What happens today is not that essentially different from what has happened in the past -except that now we are better informed and better equipped to handle it.

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Back to the original question. “Where”??

The big mass market ships that carry thousands of mostly Americans who are looking for the cheapest possible vacation experience are really in trouble. No matter what they try to do, it will not be easy.

However the smaller ships, carrying travelers - rather than tourists - will be able to re-start soon. 
Where?

Tahiti and South Pacific

South Asia

Central America

South America

Mediterranean

Baltic

 

The passenger demographic will be changing; fewer Americans, and more Europeans and Asians. Some of the lines are already upgrading their onboard product to better appeal to the new mix of passengers.

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