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stevenr597

Will/Is Princess Canceling New Builds?

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18 hours ago, Kamloops50 said:

When Cunard built the Queen Mary 2 , only 10% of the cost was a deposit. If ships aren’t delivered on the contracted date they are penalized.

I would imagine that the ship building contracts have force majeure clauses that exclude penalties for events that are beyond control, like the current pandemic.

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On 8/17/2020 at 12:37 PM, phabric said:

I am on the Discovery Dec 13, 2021 with 8 cabins booked for my belated birthday and family reunion so hope It is delivered by that time.


I am looking into switching the Discovery to the Caribbean Princess instead of the Discovery.  With the dockyard’s 4 month delay, the Discovery might not be ready until 2022?

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11 minutes ago, skynight said:

I would imagine that the ship building contracts have force majeure clauses that exclude penalties for events that are beyond control, like the current pandemic.

Probably there is. The cruise line might actually delay the delivery and then they probably pay a penalty for delaying the delivery. They could accept delivery and the dockyard will have more time to finish the ship. The QE was delivered to Cunard but the dockyard had about 400 workers onboard to finish as they travelled to Southampton.

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Posted (edited)

Some good news.. Princess has announced that they are going ahead with construction of the Destiny Princess.  Below is a photograph of the first "part" of the ship being sent to the Fincanteri Ship yards in Moncalfone,  Italy. 

Discovery Princess.jpg

Edited by stevenr597
Added some additonal information

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24 minutes ago, stevenr597 said:

Some good news.. Princess has announced that they are going ahead with construction of the Destiny Princess.  Below is a photograph of the first "part" of the ship being sent to the Fincanteri Ship yards in Moncalfone,  Italy. 

Discovery Princess.jpg


Do you mean Discovery Princess coming out  2021?

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2 hours ago, phabric said:


Do you mean Discovery Princess coming out  2021?

Yes...Discovery Princess

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On 8/19/2020 at 5:43 PM, stevenr597 said:

Yes...Discovery Princess

I'll be the most surprise person if that ship sails in 2021.  I doubt it will make a transatlantic cruise.  Instead it will be ready for 2022 cruises.

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On 8/18/2020 at 10:26 AM, CineGraphic said:

 

Be smart and come up with a Plan B now.

We have a Plan B and C ready to implement if necessary.  It is important to be on the ball if and when one booking is being cancelled in order to grab another choice that will most certainly be actively pursued.

 

At this point it isn't all about being picky about what the itinerary is, it's all about getting back on board.

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I for one am curious about the two new mega LNG ships that are planned for 2023-2025 roll out.  I wonder if they will be cancelled?

 

Bob

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1 hour ago, Grego said:

We have a Plan B and C ready to implement if necessary.  It is important to be on the ball if and when one booking is being cancelled in order to grab another choice that will most certainly be actively pursued.

 

At this point it isn't all about being picky about what the itinerary is, it's all about getting back on board.

Exactly.  We have a 2021 fall T/A and a 2022 spring Hawaii R/T on the books.  I may look for a couple more back ups for 2022 as well.  I’m holding off on anything for 2021 that is before my fall T/A.  Keeping fingers crossed a vaccine will be out by then.....😊😊😊

 

Bob

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1 hour ago, Woobstr112G said:

I for one am curious about the two new mega LNG ships that are planned for 2023-2025 roll out.  I wonder if they will be cancelled?

 

Bob

I have heard that they are not.  I do know that construction at Port Canaveral for at least one of these ships is ongoing. 

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4 minutes ago, stevenr597 said:

I have heard that they are not.  I do know that construction at Port Canaveral for at least one of these ships is ongoing. 

That’s promising news.  I remember talking to Captain Tuvo on the Sky, back in February, where he told me about the construction needed to refuel the ships.....

 

Bob

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13 minutes ago, stevenr597 said:

I have heard that they are not.  I do know that construction at Port Canaveral for at least one of these ships is ongoing. 

Princess is gonna go out of Port Canaveral in the future ? - Sweet ! 🦄🍷

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5 hours ago, voljeep said:

Princess is gonna go out of Port Canaveral in the future ? - Sweet ! 🦄🍷

I believe Port Canaveral is in reference to Carnival Cruise Line that was scheduled to take delivery of an LNG ship in 2020. I don't think anyone knows what Princess will do in 2023 and beyond. 

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1 hour ago, skynight said:

I believe Port Canaveral is in reference to Carnival Cruise Line that was scheduled to take delivery of an LNG ship in 2020. I don't think anyone knows what Princess will do in 2023 and beyond. 

Yes, one of the new builds for Carnival is supposed to be based at Port Canaveral, and they are continuing with construction of new facilities to be able to handle this ship.  

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15 hours ago, Woobstr112G said:

I for one am curious about the two new mega LNG ships that are planned for 2023-2025 roll out.  I wonder if they will be cancelled?

 

Bob

 

 

So far they may be delayed, but I doubt they will be cancelled.

 

Once in the fleet they will be the most energy efficient ships they have and thus the lowest cost to Princess per passenger to operate. When these more efficient ships enter the fleet, older (less efficient) ships will leave the fleet.

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5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

 

So far they may be delayed, but I doubt they will be cancelled.

 

Once in the fleet they will be the most energy efficient ships they have and thus the lowest cost to Princess per passenger to operate. When these more efficient ships enter the fleet, older (less efficient) ships will leave the fleet.

Do you have some link to the energy efficiencies of these ships?  Would be interested to see.  If you are basing this on them being LNG fueled, that is a false assumption.

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5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

 

So far they may be delayed, but I doubt they will be cancelled.

 

Once in the fleet they will be the most energy efficient ships they have and thus the lowest cost to Princess per passenger to operate. When these more efficient ships enter the fleet, older (less efficient) ships will leave the fleet.

LNG powered ships are more environmentally-friendly; reduced NOx and near zero SOx as well as much reduced CO2.  Not necessarily more fuel efficient or less costly to operate.

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5 hours ago, caribill said:

 

 

So far they may be delayed, but I doubt they will be cancelled.

 

Once in the fleet they will be the most energy efficient ships they have and thus the lowest cost to Princess per passenger to operate. When these more efficient ships enter the fleet, older (less efficient) ships will leave the fleet.

I don't know about energy efficient and costs, but I did find this information regarding the environmental impact.

LNG is one of the cleanest-burning non-electric marine fuels, reportedly reducing sulfur emissions by as much as 99 percent and nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 85 percent, according to a 2018 paper from the University of Texas at Austin. It also reduces greenhouse emissions by as much as an additional 30 percent and largely eliminates particulate matter from ship exhaust.

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15 minutes ago, skynight said:

I don't know about energy efficient and costs, but I did find this information regarding the environmental impact.

LNG is one of the cleanest-burning non-electric marine fuels, reportedly reducing sulfur emissions by as much as 99 percent and nitrogen oxide emissions by up to 85 percent, according to a 2018 paper from the University of Texas at Austin. It also reduces greenhouse emissions by as much as an additional 30 percent and largely eliminates particulate matter from ship exhaust.

While this is true, it does not reflect a "dirty little secret" that LNG proponents tend to hide.  There is a thing called "methane slippage", which is the amount of methane released in transport and transfer operations (like bunkering the ship), and unburned by the diesel engines.  And, as we all know from the "cow fart" problem, methane is a major greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential 84 times higher than CO2 over 20 years.  Emissions testing of engines is done at "optimal" load (fully loaded), while in real life most engines, particularly ship's engines, will operate at partial load, and variable load (think of maneuvering thrusters), which significantly affects the combustion efficiency, and hence the methane slip.

 

Is LNG a potential move in the right direction?  Perhaps.  Is it the panacea that LNG proponents claim?  Likely not.  One of the big reason cruise ships, particularly in the US market, are switching to LNG is not environmental concerns, but cost.

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Changkp75

Thank you, your comments always informative. Question. It seems to me that LNG ships will be limited in itineraries. For example, fuel in Florida, stop at some Caribbean islands, return to Florida for disembark/embark and fueling. The standard 7 or 10 day Caribbean cruise. Is it correct to think that longer itineraries with multiple stops and refueling along the way would be a difficult logistic issue?

 

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1 hour ago, skynight said:

Changkp75

Thank you, your comments always informative. Question. It seems to me that LNG ships will be limited in itineraries. For example, fuel in Florida, stop at some Caribbean islands, return to Florida for disembark/embark and fueling. The standard 7 or 10 day Caribbean cruise. Is it correct to think that longer itineraries with multiple stops and refueling along the way would be a difficult logistic issue?

 

Even in Florida, logistics for a significant number of large LNG powered ships will be difficult.  The fueling terminals that Carnival are building will be using LNG from Savannah, GA, brought down by tanker, and this facility has a limited, for now, re-liquifaction capacity.  The JAX facility is also limited, and both Crowley and Tote have stakes there, and first dibs on fuel.  I'm not even convinced that the ships will carry enough LNG for a 7 day cruise, since LNG requires about 6 times the storage capacity for the same energy as residual fuel or diesel.  Since the ships are really "dual fuel" (the large marine diesel engines that use LNG, can burn combinations of LNG and liquid fuel in ratios from 0% LNG to 95% LNG), and since they do not have spark ignition like LNG buses, they must mix 5% diesel fuel to get the combustion rolling, and there is a requirement to have enough diesel fuel onboard to get to the next port if there is a problem with the LNG fuel system, that the ships may well blend down the LNG once out of port, or the US ECA, where emissions are less stringent.

 

Combine with this the cost factor.  In the US, LNG has a significant cost savings (though that could go out the window post-pandemic), less so in Europe, and virtually no cost benefit in Asia, mainly due to availability.

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3 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Do you have some link to the energy efficiencies of these ships?  Would be interested to see.  If you are basing this on them being LNG fueled, that is a false assumption.

 

No, not basing on LNG, but on the newest designs for efficiency and that newer,  larger ships are less cost/per passenger to operate than  older, smaller ships.

 

Royal Caribbean Corp, for example, said in May that their newer ships can break even at 30% capacity while their older ships need 50% capacity to break even.

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17 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

No, not basing on LNG, but on the newest designs for efficiency and that newer,  larger ships are less cost/per passenger to operate than  older, smaller ships.

 

Royal Caribbean Corp, for example, said in May that their newer ships can break even at 30% capacity while their older ships need 50% capacity to break even.

That statement was also with a very large "condition", that the "break even" was a "sort of", because they were using EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), so they are not considering either the interest or principal on the financing cost of the ship.  So, yes, you can carry passengers for less operating cost per passenger in newer ships, in real life you've got to pay the mortgage as well as the utility bill, so the cost of the ship must be figured into the equation.  There are economies of scale in larger ships, but these apply mainly to capital cost (cost to build) more than operational costs, though there are some economies in operations, just not as significant as your numbers would imply.

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11 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

That statement was also with a very large "condition", that the "break even" was a "sort of", because they were using EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization), so they are not considering either the interest or principal on the financing cost of the ship.  So, yes, you can carry passengers for less operating cost per passenger in newer ships, in real life you've got to pay the mortgage as well as the utility bill, so the cost of the ship must be figured into the equation.  There are economies of scale in larger ships, but these apply mainly to capital cost (cost to build) more than operational costs, though there are some economies in operations, just not as significant as your numbers would imply.

 

I agree with you 100%.

 

When other costs are added in, a higher break even point is required. However, the newer builds will still have a lower overall breakeven point than the older ones.

 

Thus the new builds will not be cancelled and when they arrive, even if delayed, the older, less efficient ships will leave the fleet.

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