In 10 days what will it be

[boatseller]

56 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

no its not if you are talking percentage which is the only way to judge it

Nope.  Because the testing is not of a controlled group.

 

That is why number of cases is irrelevant, and consequently % positive is irrelevant.  The actual number of infections is unknown so both is a proportion of an unknown number.

 

I pointed out previously, of 100 people, it doesn't matter if 20 or 75 test positive.  It only matters that 1 person (who may not have been tested IRL) requires intervention (a hospital bed or other higher care).

 

If cruise lines successfully dissuade at-risk persons from cruising (the 1 that might require higher care), the consequence of an 'outbreak' will be minimal, if even detectable.  With all the hysteria, I predict a lot of people will put off any action to avoid a disruption in travel.

 

Edit:  I said earlier that the only know values were population size and losses.  I failed to mention higher care cases is also a know value.

Edited August 25, 2020 by boatseller

[hftmrock]

10 minutes ago, boatseller said:

 

I pointed out previously, of 100 people, it doesn't matter if 20 or 75 test positive.  It only matters that 1 person (who may not have been tested IRL) requires intervention (a hospital bed or other higher care).

 

 

thats a slippery slope.

 

for every person that has it... they 'can' infect a person that is elderly or compromised or in some cases healthy people that will need hospitalization.

 

so the more cases... the more likelihood people with compromised immune systems can get it and that will lead to more hospitalizations and more death

 

most states have seen a rise in cases, followed in a few weeks by a rise in hospitalizations followed a few weeks later by a rise in deaths. 

 

this is why the percentage of infection at any given time is important

 

if you disagree... thats fine. Im done with this conversation. Most experts are saying this over and over and if it didnt matter about the spread, no experts would tell people to wear masks. if the percentage is no big deal.. then why are the experts telling people to social distance and wear masks or are you one of those that believe this is all a hoax?

Edited August 25, 2020 by hftmrock

[boatseller]

12 minutes ago, hftmrock said:

thats a slippery slope.

 

for every person that has it... they 'can' infect a person that is elderly or compromised or in some cases healthy people that will need hospitalization.

 

so the more cases... the more likelihood people with compromised immune systems can get it and that will lead to more hospitalizations and more death

 

most states have seen a rise in cases, followed in a few weeks by a rise in hospitalizations followed a few weeks later by a rise in deaths. 

 

this is why the percentage of infection at any given time is important

 

if you disagree... thats fine. Im done with this conversation. Most experts are saying this over and over and if it didnt matter about the spread, no experts would tell people to wear masks. if the percentage is no big deal.. then why are the experts telling people to social distance and wear masks or are you one of those that believe this is all a hoax?

Nope.  % is still irrelevant.  At risk persons should be protected...regardless of overall prevalence.  Take a cruise ship, if prevalence is 50% or 2%, at risk persons should still not sail until there is a treatment they are comfortable with.

 

But yes, I think you should quit while I'm ahead.  Also, face coverings and distancing were not part of this discussion.

[CruiseMH]

20 hours ago, boatseller said:

 

"the situation in Europe is much better than in the US"  -- It is not.  Please provide evidence.  I have, you just wish it away.

 

" i do only care how we can solve this "problem"" -- In Florida, we already solved the problem.  Our Curve peaked a month ago and even then, capacity was never outpaced.  Again, symptom free cases require no action or intervention, thus, not a problem

 

Alright, you are only interested in the hospitalized people.Doesn`t make that much sense but here you go:

 

Europe:

 

Citizens: 519.000.000

Deaths: 177.500

hospitalized: approx. 525.000 (estimations vary from 15 to 25% of all cases, i used the highest possible number)

 

US:

Citizens: 328.100.000

Deaths: 177.100

hospitalized: 526.844

 

As you can see, no matter in which way you look at the figures and no matter which figures are important for you, Europe simply looks better.

 

But apart from the facts it simply doesn`t make sense to ignore the people without symptoms. Yes, it is very tempting to ignore all these cases,cause they don`t seem to be a problem. But the thing is that even if you do not show any symptoms, you are visiting your parents or grand parents, they get infected and they do show symptoms, need hospitalization or even die. If all people would think like that then the number of cases who need hospitalization will increase again very quickly.

So far i can`t think of any human and fair solution to get the old,frail and endangered people out of the danger zone without "disturbing" the healthy ones.

 Just keep in mind that the curve in Europe also flattened some time ago and now is going up again. Number of hospitalized people goes up only very slowly,but it does. The above mentioned might be one explanation for that.

And even in Florida the number of hospitalized people due to covid-19 in creased from yesterday to today.

 

 

[CruiseMH]

22 hours ago, boatseller said:

 

"the more tests you do the higher the rate will be" - I did not say that.  Find the quote or apologize.

 

 

On Sunday, 6:28 pm you wrote  " If Europe did 3x tests, all those numbers would be 3x higher." This was your reply to my post with statistics including the rate(!)

[boatseller]

49 minutes ago, CruiseMH said:

 

Alright, you are only interested in the hospitalized people.Doesn`t make that much sense but here you go:

 

Europe:

 

Citizens: 519.000.000

Deaths: 177.500

hospitalized: approx. 525.000 (estimations vary from 15 to 25% of all cases, i used the highest possible number)

 

US:

Citizens: 328.100.000

Deaths: 177.100

hospitalized: 526.844

 

As you can see, no matter in which way you look at the figures and no matter which figures are important for you, Europe simply looks better.

 

But apart from the facts it simply doesn`t make sense to ignore the people without symptoms. Yes, it is very tempting to ignore all these cases,cause they don`t seem to be a problem. But the thing is that even if you do not show any symptoms, you are visiting your parents or grand parents, they get infected and they do show symptoms, need hospitalization or even die. If all people would think like that then the number of cases who need hospitalization will increase again very quickly.

So far i can`t think of any human and fair solution to get the old,frail and endangered people out of the danger zone without "disturbing" the healthy ones.

 Just keep in mind that the curve in Europe also flattened some time ago and now is going up again. Number of hospitalized people goes up only very slowly,but it does. The above mentioned might be one explanation for that.

And even in Florida the number of hospitalized people due to covid-19 in creased from yesterday to today.

 

 

Nope.  I guess you didn't read.  Hospital capacity is the important metric.  Reminder:  Flatten the Curve.

 

Our loss rate is still lower than Europe, which is better.  One day to the next is not a trend.  Slowing the spread too much only prolongs the situation.

 

So, you can keep trying, but....we're ready to cruise.  

[farmersfight]

@CruiseMH, @hftmrock, @boatseller

 

[boatseller]

8 minutes ago, CruiseMH said:

On Sunday, 6:28 pm you wrote  " If Europe did 3x tests, all those numbers would be 3x higher." This was your reply to my post with statistics including the rate(!)

Nope.  This is not a quote though quoted.  Also, even the mis-quote was out of context.  That OP was referring to positive rate of testing.  I had just pointed out that he only know quantity there is population size, which the 2nd and 3rd stat were based on.

 

So, yes, those are functions of testing.  Perhaps I wasn't as clear as possible in dismissing (again) % positive rate.  Based on population, that would also increase with testing.  Doesn't matter though, they're both irrelevant.

[ColeThornton]

[beerman2]

25 minutes ago, ColeThornton said:

Edited August 25, 2020 by beerman2

[beerman2]

52 minutes ago, farmersfight said:

@CruiseMH, @hftmrock, @boatseller

 

Hell 602,830 cases in Fla. means nothing to some of these "experts" on here. I've read it before that's a minuscule % of the population  so No Big Deal.

[CruiseMH]

2 hours ago, boatseller said:

Nope.  This is not a quote though quoted.  Also, even the mis-quote was out of context.  That OP was referring to positive rate of testing.  I had just pointed out that he only know quantity there is population size, which the 2nd and 3rd stat were based on.

 

So, yes, those are functions of testing.  Perhaps I wasn't as clear as possible in dismissing (again) % positive rate.  Based on population, that would also increase with testing.  Doesn't matter though, they're both irrelevant.

Ok,i thought that you referred to ALL of my statistics in your stement.If you only meant the test amount and case amount then your statement is correct.

[CruiseMH]

2 hours ago, boatseller said:

Our loss rate is still lower than Europe, which is better. 

 

Could you please specify how you define loss rate?

 

If loss rate is number of deaths/hospitalized people compared to the size of population then Europe has the way lower rate.

If loss rate is number of deaths/hospitalized people compared to the number of proven cases then you are right,then Europe is much worse.

But you did mention yourself a few times that number of official cases is irrelevant because it doesn`t say anything about how much people are really infected.(which is also absolutely right)

So as per all your postings the only numbers that are relevant are number of deaths/hospitalized people and the Hospital capacity. In regards to the hospital capacity Europe and the US look good.In average only 60-70 % of the intense care capacity was needed. Now we know that at fear at the beginning that the health systems could collpase were almost completely unfounded.

 

I do absolutely agree with you that in case we find a way to successfully dissuade at-risk persons from cruising(or any other vacation) then the consequences of this virus spread will be absolutely managable and not a big deal.

 

But how do you want to make sure that nobody who might be at risk is on the ship? Just check on the age structure and health structure of all victims of Covid-19. At the moment is very hard to give a clear definition who is at risk and who is not.(age might an important factor). It will be almost impossible to find a legally safe way to put that into the terms and conditions of the cruise lines(or any other vacation operator). There might be hundreds or thousands of legal actions following.

I would love it if there is a safe way to do so. But the cruise lines will be very carefull to avoid any bad press or legal actions.

 

All experiences which AIDA, TUI and MSC cruises are currently making are extremely valuable and do help the whole industry to find a way to get back to normal as quick as possible. So we should be really thankful that they try. (i will try it out as well end of September on one of their ships, hopefully all we go well)

 

[Coastalbreezes]

No announcement until at least September 10.

[GA Dave]

8 hours ago, Coastalbreezes said:

No announcement until at least September 10.

That was the day my 10-day Med cruise on the Getaway was supposed to sail from Civitavecchia.  😭

[Fido Chuckwagon]

On 8/20/2020 at 6:13 AM, david_sobe said:

I spoke with my NCL PCC last week and she told me that NCL will resume cruising in November. 

[bobsfamily]

Wt? Please start another thread...

Edited August 27, 2020 by bobsfamily

[bmwman]

On 8/20/2020 at 8:14 PM, SpainAlien said:

I have 1st November booked from Barcelona and it's just a 5 hour drive from our house so we're good to go if they are . Honestly though I don't know that Barcelona port will have reopened by then.

 

 

It will not be Europe for all sorts of reasons but I am sure you will agree with the infection rate still out of control in Spain, France and going that way in the UK no port city in their right mind  is going to want to risk mass influx of people. Sad but forget Europe for another 6 months at least. MSC tried and are giving up as no one wants the big ships. For once COVID is trumping the economics!

Edited August 27, 2020 by bmwman

[bmwman]

On 8/26/2020 at 8:32 PM, Fido Chuckwagon said:

And hoped you would book something so she could get her commission. 

[beerman2]

9 hours ago, bobsfamily said:

Wt? Please start another thread...

?????????

[All-ready2cruise]

2 hours ago, beerman2 said:

?????????

I wonder the same... please help me understand.... 

 

On 2nd thought, never mind, it likely wouldn't work anyway... I'm beyond help. 

 

Stay safe and don't drink too much lemonade or whatever it is you prefer.... coke, pepsi... etc. 

[farmersfight]

9 hours ago, All-ready2cruise said:

Stay safe and don't drink too much lemonade or whatever it is you prefer.... coke, pepsi... etc. 

 

[Trimone]

The next announcement. 
NCL goes into chapter 12.

Frank Del Rio sails off into the sunset, after purchasing Oceania cruises and Regent Seven seas cruises for peanuts in administration.

Uproar from NCL loyal customers that have valueless cruise credits.

NCL is saved by a pharmaceutical company that invents and approves a vaccine for COVID-19, gives all latitude members above Gold the first doses for free, and we all go cruising again.

Happy Friday 

 

[GirlWriter]

On 8/23/2020 at 3:23 PM, boatseller said:

Fortunately our leaders, especially here in Florida, have focused on what matters, higher care capacity, protecting vulnerable populations and treatments.  Our curve is more than flat enough for cruising and will be dragging the bottom by November.

🤣

[boatseller]

2 minutes ago, GirlWriter said:

🤣

Since you provide no evidence to the contrary, you just know it's true but can't admit it for reasons.  No worries, we're glad to take everyone along for the great ride.