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In 10 days what will it be

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On 8/25/2020 at 5:18 PM, CruiseMH said:

Could you please specify how you define loss rate?

 

If loss rate is number of deaths/hospitalized people compared to the number of proven cases then you are right,then Europe is much worse.

 

I do absolutely agree with you that in case we find a way to successfully dissuade at-risk persons from cruising(or any other vacation) then the consequences of this virus spread will be absolutely managable and not a big deal.

 

But how do you want to make sure that nobody who might be at risk is on the ship?

Good old: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

There's a column to sort by loss rate /1M.

 

Carnival had it right way back in March with the Fit to Sail certification.  The significant factors have been well known since March.  So, let the CDC create a standard score the traveler's doctor can fill out to let the traveler make the choice weather or not to travel.  I say let the traveler choose because, well, ultimately it is up to them, but I would expect the actual result would be travelers who don't meet some threshold will not be allowed to sail by the cruise line.  Any urgent care facility can do the required diagnostics in maybe 30 min.

 

People die onboard right now, that's why there are morgues.  There is no way to prevent all at-risk persons on-board.  And if an at-risk person chooses to sail with the info, that is their choice to make.  Same situation at the theme parks.

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On 8/25/2020 at 1:43 PM, CruiseMH said:

 

Alright, you are only interested in the hospitalized people.Doesn`t make that much sense but here you go:

 

Europe:

 

Citizens: 519.000.000

Deaths: 177.500

hospitalized: approx. 525.000 (estimations vary from 15 to 25% of all cases, i used the highest possible number)

 

US:

Citizens: 328.100.000

Deaths: 177.100

hospitalized: 526.844

 

As you can see, no matter in which way you look at the figures and no matter which figures are important for you, Europe simply looks better.

 

But apart from the facts it simply doesn`t make sense to ignore the people without symptoms. Yes, it is very tempting to ignore all these cases,cause they don`t seem to be a problem. But the thing is that even if you do not show any symptoms, you are visiting your parents or grand parents, they get infected and they do show symptoms, need hospitalization or even die. If all people would think like that then the number of cases who need hospitalization will increase again very quickly.

So far i can`t think of any human and fair solution to get the old,frail and endangered people out of the danger zone without "disturbing" the healthy ones.

 Just keep in mind that the curve in Europe also flattened some time ago and now is going up again. Number of hospitalized people goes up only very slowly,but it does. The above mentioned might be one explanation for that.

And even in Florida the number of hospitalized people due to covid-19 in creased from yesterday to today.

 

 

For the record. Pull NY, NJ out of the picture and USA is , well. No different, if not better. I am not accusing NY or NJ. Except NY March 25, 2020 introduced a rule which killed thousands. The Elderly of NY became the victims. So if you want numbers, well Google them. Please. On a lighter note. Given the China/Corona/Covid worldwide convo. You fly to a location. You go to the port. You find out you now are testing positive. You and your travel mates are refused boarding. Oh, now you do what? Get on a plane to head home while sick? Head to a hotel while sick? Hmmm,, Oh yea. It is time to rethink, maybe the governments we want to see get a plan and we follow. 

 

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Posted (edited)
On 8/27/2020 at 7:39 PM, beerman2 said:

?????????

Wt? Please start another thread...

 

  Wt -What the without the F.... for the posters that cannot stay on what the thread is about

Edited by bobsfamily

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21 minutes ago, bobsfamily said:

Wt? Please start another thread...

 

  Wt -What the without the F.... for the posters that cannot stay on what the thread is about

The ???? was who were you referring to (start another thread). I know the meaning of WT(F).

 

 

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, beerman2 said:

The ???? was who were you referring to (start another thread). I know the meaning of WT(F).

 

 

So many people off topic.... nothing to do with the thread.

And here I am doing the same

Edited by bobsfamily

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10 hours ago, sunbrookgal said:

For the record. Pull NY, NJ out of the picture and USA is , well. No different, if not better. I am not accusing NY or NJ. Except NY March 25, 2020 introduced a rule which killed thousands. The Elderly of NY became the victims. So if you want numbers, well Google them. Please. On a lighter note. Given the China/Corona/Covid worldwide convo. You fly to a location. You go to the port. You find out you now are testing positive. You and your travel mates are refused boarding. Oh, now you do what? Get on a plane to head home while sick? Head to a hotel while sick? Hmmm,, Oh yea. It is time to rethink, maybe the governments we want to see get a plan and we follow. 

 

 

This discussion could go on forever,but it will be useless if people try to bend the statistics it into the shape it fits them(e.g. put NYC out of the picture).

So i will stop it here to avoid any further off-topic postings. I will stay on-topic in this thread for the future.


Sorry to all for being so often off-topic in this thread.

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9 hours ago, bobsfamily said:

So many people off topic.... nothing to do with the thread.

And here I am doing the same

"In 10 days what will it be" is pretty generic, tomorrow will be different than today, the next days could put us back a week or so.

 

Many threads go astray it's the way with posters. As long as this "virus" is with us , whether one believes it or not, the debate/opinions aren't going to go away or change.

 

 

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Referring back to the original post and  today being day 10; after all the discussion and recent developments does anybody have a better estimate of what today’s NCL announcement will be?

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3 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

So i will stop it here to avoid any further off-topic postings. I will stay on-topic in this thread for the future.


Sorry to all for being so often off-topic in this thread.

 

What to Expect from a Hard HIIT Workout Class | Shape

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There is a pretty good chance they announce November cruises are slated to begin with limited capacity and social distancing.

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I’m thinking they’ll cancel everything until early January; write off the Christmas and New Year’s period.

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18 minutes ago, drvmywifecrzy said:

There is a pretty good chance they announce November cruises are slated to begin with limited capacity and social distancing.

 

That's only a couple of months away.  I don't see that happening. The Covid situation won't change that much in such a short time.

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2 hours ago, drvmywifecrzy said:

There is a pretty good chance they announce November cruises are slated to begin with limited capacity and social distancing.

 

It depends on the CDC. The cruise lines had enough time to prepare and develop a concept that convinces CDC. So far the cruises offered in Italy and Germany are working fine and no cases so far. From September on there will be negative test-results needed to be allowed to board the ships of TUI cruises ,but there are given periods and medical centers where you can do the test(which is included in the price). If this concept works in germany it should for sure work in the US as well.

Maybe the US-cruise lines will wait a few weeks to see if this really works well.If it does i don`t see any reason why not to try it.

So i think the next announcement of NCL will be cancellation of the cruises until end of November,but then there might be a chance that some time they announce the first cruises in December.

I don`t think they will operate the regular cruises as per the original plan. But some cruises with a lot of sea days and stopps on their private islands should be realistic.

 

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I mean, they announced early if you ask me.  The push of 60 day final payments was identical to last months announcement, just missing the cancelled cruise part.  I suppose there could be another announcement, but I think (and this is just an opinion, which I know we all have) that NCL, and other lines, would love to try some "test" cruises in November.  We will all see.

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Posted (edited)

so now a," how does november look? "  thread is needed 

Edited by seaman11

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25 minutes ago, seaman11 said:

so now a," how does november look? "  thread is needed 

Basically every post in here no matter how much it is tried to be positive gets spun into a doom and gloom we will never sail again and are going bankrupt in the next few months (And I can say "we" as I have over 1000 shares of NCL).  Just randomly pick any thread and you will get plenty of how people feel November looks.  🙂

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Has everyone forgotten the CDC's No Sail order until September 30th? The cruise lines can come up with

a multitude of ideas to "test" some initial cruises but the CDC holds all the cards. Florida is still a hotbed

of virus activity so until that state isn't making headlines for outbreaks my bet is that the CDC will be

overly conscious before allowing cruising in or out of any U.S. port.

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3 minutes ago, atanac said:

Has everyone forgotten the CDC's No Sail order until September 30th? The cruise lines can come up with

a multitude of ideas to "test" some initial cruises but the CDC holds all the cards. Florida is still a hotbed

of virus activity so until that state isn't making headlines for outbreaks my bet is that the CDC will be

overly conscious before allowing cruising in or out of any U.S. port.

yes we all know that . i think ppl are talking about oct-december . but now seems oct is out .  

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7 minutes ago, atanac said:

Has everyone forgotten the CDC's No Sail order until September 30th? The cruise lines can come up with

a multitude of ideas to "test" some initial cruises but the CDC holds all the cards. Florida is still a hotbed

of virus activity so until that state isn't making headlines for outbreaks my bet is that the CDC will be

overly conscious before allowing cruising in or out of any U.S. port.

Caution is the watch-word.  Cruise lines can look for quick tests, cleaning, masks, distancing, etc.... as preventative measures.  I think the biggest unanswered questions are: what will they do if there is a substantial outbreak onboard?  Where will the ship go, will there be evacuations and to what facilities, who can absorb all of this and why???  

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