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PelicanBill

Atlantic - TD 13 & 14; Laura & Marco - August 21

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Storm surge will be a major concern. Here is the latest map and estimates IF high tide comes into play.  It could be 1-2 feet less if less than high tide.  High tides are in early morning hours after midnight there the next 2 days.

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Close-up on expected impacts.  Remember wobbles can change this by 50 miles in a moment.

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I am sure you've already heard Laura is up to 115mph winds, category 2, and now projected to be Category 4 at landfall.

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I do want to point out that the official forecast for Category 4 at landfall is for winds at 131mph sustained... that barely over the 130 threshhold for category 4.  Experts are watching for wind shear to increase which could dampen this and keep it in category 3.

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3 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

With even higher winds comes even worse storm surge.

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Now the storm surge has been raised to 15 to 20 feet, in the pink zone.  This is going to be a disaster.

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Yes I can't update for a while but here is the breaking news. STRONG Category 4, this is a major disaster to be.

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The easiest change to see in on the graphic for storm surge.  This one has a new higher level of 15-20'.  The western section of 10-15 includes Port Arthur, Texas - which sits at an elevation of just 7'.  People must leave all areas of shoreline and inland quite a way from Galveston to the mouth of the Mississippi.

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I still remember vividly the pictures of the cruise port parking lot in Galveston for the storm before there was a parking garage.  All the cars destroyed and underwater.  Can you imagine returning from your cruise to that?

 

And was it just last year that heavy rains were flooding roads and blocking access to the port for cruise passengers?

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So a couple of hours ago I was researching the record for rapid intensification of a hurricane.  It appeared to be last year's Dorian, increasing 30knots/34mph in 24 hours.  I was pretty sure Laura could be a candidate for a new record, as it looked like it went from 75 to 125 in 24 hours... well I was wrong... they are now saying 75 to 140!  And The Weather Channel did just start talking about this being the record.

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I've been watching the boards over on storm2k.org and Laura is scaring even the most seasoned pro mets there 😲

 

The live storm chasers are on the road - I have no clue where they plan to shelter!

 

https://livestormchasing.com/map

 

(If you've never been to that site before just click on the little "eye" to watch a chaser who shows as online)

 

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Here's stormchaser Brett Adair from 2018 Hurricane Michael in Mexico Beach FL

 

 

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2 hours ago, PelicanBill said:

I still remember vividly the pictures of the cruise port parking lot in Galveston for the storm before there was a parking garage.  All the cars destroyed and underwater.  Can you imagine returning from your cruise to that?

 

And was it just last year that heavy rains were flooding roads and blocking access to the port for cruise passengers?

 

Makes me remember the 2017 tornado associated with Hurricane Irma that destroyed the Park 'N Cruise lot at Port Canaveral:

 

https://cruiseradio.net/cruise-parking-lot-destroyed-storm/

 

“Customers currently on Carnival Magic or the Royal Caribbean Oasis of the Seas can text their valet ticket # to 866-706-8999, for an update on your vehicle’s condition,” said another Facebook post. “We will text back as soon as possible… please keep in mind we are without power and water and communication is spotty at best, but we will respond.”

 

Text your valet ticket to see about the damage of your vehicle. Yikes.

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One of the first feeder bands coming into Gulfport MS

 

 

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Just wanted to add one last thing - looking at FB group Hurricane Talk 2020 and some people are staying in place. Prayers that they make it though. One person thought she'd be OK since her house was brick construction. 😪

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Thanks for all those great posts. Keep em coming. And I did not have that storm chasers site, thanks!

 

So we are at 150mph and still growing. Could be Category 5 at landfall.  They certainly are covering the storm surge threat well but there are always people who don't watch the news and think they can always ride out one more.  tens of miles of beach communities will not exist tomorrow. All buildings will be gone.

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No further strengthening as of 10pm CDT.  Landfall in about 3 hours (1am local) at about 150mph, a strong category 4.

 

Hoping everyone who should have evacuated did. Won't likely see pictures until flyovers later tomorrow. 

 

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At 5am Laura is still a Category 2 Hurricane as it moves inland north of Lake Charles LA.  Little Rock Arkansas and Shreveport  Loiusiana feeling the effects now.

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False alarm. Laura apparently isn't going to re-materialize off the Carolina coast.  But see the August thread for some new stuff.

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