Which Cruise Lines will do the best in the new normal?

[SelectSys]

My own guess is that MSC will come out of the COVID-19 crisis stronger than any other line.  Private ownership and an enormous freight business give them an edge in my mind.   Who do you think will be, relatively speaking, a winner and why?  Conversely, which lines or types of cruise lines are likely to not fare as well?  Again, this is all relative.

[Flatbush Flyer]

7 minutes ago, SelectSys said:

My own guess is that MSC will come out of the COVID-19 crisis stronger than any other line.

You're asking for a comparison with underlying unfairness. Just the odds of virus transmission on large vs small cruise ship with vastly different passenger loads will skew the data.

 

That said, common sense dictates that any smaller ship that is in full compliance with CDC (or equivalent) Covid precautions/practices will probably have better "public health numbers" than larger ships - particularly the "mega" ones (if for no other reason than how many people are onboard).

 

Beyond that, an important consideration will also be the historical (pre-Covid) public health behavior of any cruise line being examined. For example, we know that self-serve buffets are notorious for grubby hands touching the food. Pre-Covid, how many cruise lines prohibited self-service in food venues? I'm guessing that kind of food safety would be found mostly on some premium/luxury lines (e.g., standard practice on Oceania).

 

At the bottom line, it will be those smaller ships with a strong food safety/hotel maintenance history that will have a head start on meeting/doing Covid requirements/practices. And, thus they will have an edge in staying afloat.

 

FWIW, this may just be a moot exercise since I am convinced that the combination of public health maintenance and economic reality will find the largest ships quickly disappearing due to an ongoing inability to meet their minimally necessary passenger load.

[CruiserBruce]

Just more speculation...

[sverigecruiser]

43 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

Beyond that, an important consideration will also be the historical (pre-Covid) public health behavior of any cruise line being examined. For example, we know that self-serve buffets are notorious for grubby hands touching the food. Pre-Covid, how many cruise lines prohibited self-service in food venues? I'm guessing that kind of food safety would be found mostly on some premium/luxury lines (e.g., standard practice on Oceania).

 

 

I know that some viruses infect people when they eat it but I have not heared that Covid-19 can infect anyone that way. I have not heared about any Covid-19 outbreaks which has started that way. I don't say that it can't happen but it seems like the risk is minimal.

[sverigecruiser]

1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

My own guess is that MSC will come out of the COVID-19 crisis stronger than any other line.  Private ownership and an enormous freight business give them an edge in my mind.   Who do you think will be, relatively speaking, a winner and why?  Conversely, which lines or types of cruise lines are likely to not fare as well?  Again, this is all relative.

 

I agree with you about MSC. 1. They have already started up a little with a few cruises. 2. Their fright business may help them. 3. They are big in Europe and it seems like it may be easier here.

 

I also think that expensive cruises on small ships may be a good thing (=luxury lines).

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 minute ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

I know that some viruses infect people when they eat it but I have not heared that Covid-19 can infect anyone that way. I have not heared about any Covid-19 outbreaks which has started that way. I don't say that it can't happen but it seems like the risk is minimal.

The potential Covid problem with the self-serve buffet is not the food itself as much as it is the surfaces those grubby hand will touch: serving utensils, dishes, condiment containers, etc. 

[sverigecruiser]

Just now, Flatbush Flyer said:

The potential Covid problem with the self-serve buffet is not the food itself as much as it is the surfaces those grubby hand will touch: serving utensils, dishes, condiment containers, etc. 

 

I understand that but that means several steps with bad luck before someone is infected. It can happen but the risk is very limited.

[Flatbush Flyer]

Just now, sverigecruiser said:

....I also think that expensive cruises on small ships may be a good thing (=luxury lines).

Just think about the demographics of cruising.

 

A large part of the premium/luxury demographic  is retired folks with the resources to afford the price tag. While a Covid economy may take a bite out of them, most geezers will not be relying on now non-existent paychecks to maintain their lifestyle.

 

Those small ships will fill quickly once cruising returns, particularly since they will be required by CDC et al. to cruise at less than full capacity.

 

So, for a small ship (e.g., an R ship with usually less than 700 passengers), a max load of approx 450 on a 3+ week (mostly retirees) itinerary (including a good mix of sea days and "safe" ports) will become the true "golden ticket" of cruising. (Go to any premium/luxury cruise line website right now and look for 2021 availability of cabins for what I have just described. What you'll find are "slim pickin's".)

[Flatbush Flyer]

11 minutes ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

I understand that but that means several steps with bad luck before someone is infected. It can happen but the risk is very limited.

So why take that chance when you can cruise on ships where the risk is even less by having greater food safety restriction (even before Covid)?

I can't imagine cruising on lines with "big" ships, thousands of passengers and an already bad reputation for Covid issues (e.g., Princess, HAL...). Of course, I already would avoid them because of the bad/mediocre food and "nickel/dime" add-ons.

[Roz]

HAL was already limiting self-service in the Lido over noro virus concerns, so I'm sure that will continue along with more restrictions such as not being able to get your own coffee.

[Cruzaholic41]

I hate to interrupt this nauseating Oceania commercial 🙄, but I think it’s false advertising. 
 

Seniors and those who are highest risk are the last who should be eager to get back on cruise ships.  
 

Considering how many small ships have been either sold off or beached for scrap, the evidence is proving the largest, newest ships of the big parent cruise lines are the safest. 

[Sue Do-Over]

Ship size certainly impacts the likelihood of exposure to COVID, although it's certainly possible on a large ship to never encounter the carrier...  Casino players might never encounter Lido Deck loungers, except in line for the elevator.

That said, there is likely greater risk in short trips -- the 3 and 4 day party cruises - that attract younger, drunker and less cautious passengers overall that hope to eat and drink 'their money's worth'.  More different hands touching everything, basically.

 

Conversely, those taking longer trips tend to be older and more sedate, and more concerned about the virus... so while a shorter, less pricey cruise might be pretty full, a longer cruise probably has more empty cabins and more opportunities to deep clean.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

I know that some viruses infect people when they eat it but I have not heared that Covid-19 can infect anyone that way. I have not heared about any Covid-19 outbreaks which has started that way. I don't say that it can't happen but it seems like the risk is minimal.

This is more of a protection against a norovirus outbreak.

 

We, or should I say scientists, now know that the Covid virus is airborne, not a surface virus. But we are still hearing this clean this, clean that protect us from it from the early days. Not that there is anything wrong with more cleaning.

[getting older slowly]

A Couple of Points.

 

Regardless of ship size they will need to operate at reduced numbers    ( a number 60% full )

 

Financials.... can Companies run at Reduced numbers and make enough profit.... and adding to this will prices go up to get get much needed capital .....

 

So which cruise line to do best.....?????   

the ones with the least debt and overheads..... 

the rest are starting behind the eight ball.... with almost a year of lost income....

Also the other thing is greed ... as they are all after the dollar....

and are public companies which are there for the stock holders.......

 

That is about it     cheers Don

 

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 hour ago, Cruzaholic41 said:

....Seniors and those who are highest risk are the last who should be eager to get back on cruise ships.  
 

Considering how many small ships have been either sold off or beached for scrap.....

What seniors should be doing and what they are doing are vastly different things (look at the 2021 bookings on lines they frequent more than any other age group).

The scrapping of some small ships began long before Covid. And the sale of small ships has sometimes created an entire cruise line (e.g., all of Azamara's ships are R ships and that line is doing just fine).

You may want to reconsider the basic economic  law of "supply and demand" about six months from now.

[pris993]

I will wait and see how this turns out, predicting the future is not a skill i have.  Good luck to all lines. 

[GrJ Berkshire]

Small ships, not crowded 750 or less passengers, no buffet option, no inside cabins, all inclusive including the excursions which the ship can control, so no wandering on your own. Open seating at dinner, no large mixed tables from different groups.

This is the only cruising that will survive - companies like Regent.....

Many of the mega ships will do well not to be converted to hotels, prison ships or broken up for scrap. I cannot see anyone wanting to be on a 2000+ ship and even fewer ports wanting them................

[Tapi]

Before anybody attempted to restart cruising, I would’ve answered the small ship operators. Now, after seeing MSC successfully restart with the MSC Grandiosa, and after seeing small ship cruise lines not being able to control infections onboard, I don’t think that the winner will necessarily be the small ship or luxury cruise line, but who can get their act together. 
 

I agree that MSC is probably the best positioned to succeed, at least in the large ship market. Financially, they are strong with their cargo operations, and it seems like they are several steps ahead of other cruise lines with their protocols and procedures to combat Covid. 
 

Since they restarted cruising in the Mediterranean 2 weeks ago, I’ve seen their cruise fares shoot up. I booked a cruise a few weeks ago before the relaunch, which has now tripled in price. I feel that they’ve been able to inject a sense of confidence in the cruising public. 

[cruisemom42]

1 hour ago, GrJ Berkshire said:

Small ships, not crowded 750 or less passengers, no buffet option, no inside cabins, all inclusive including the excursions which the ship can control, so no wandering on your own. Open seating at dinner, no large mixed tables from different groups.

This is the only cruising that will survive - companies like Regent.....

Many of the mega ships will do well not to be converted to hotels, prison ships or broken up for scrap. I cannot see anyone wanting to be on a 2000+ ship and even fewer ports wanting them................

 

You must have missed the news that the 6,000+ passenger MSC Grandiosa resumed sailing a couple of weeks ago. Granted, there were about 3,000 passengers onboard...but that is due to the ship limiting passengers for easier 'social distancing'.

 

There is a seemingly endless hunger for cruising; it is evidenced daily on these boards. Any number of people would jump back on a ship tomorrow if they were sailing from the US, without care or concern about COVID infection. 

 

As long as the cruise lines can weather the current 'drought', I have little doubt that we will see mega-ships sailing as soon as they get the all-clear.  And as bigger ships tend to have a certain number of cost efficiencies associated, I am guessing that sailing with fewer passengers will pose them fewer problems than for some of the smaller/luxury ships.

 

 

[Flatbush Flyer]

58 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

You must have missed the news that the 6,000+ passenger MSC Grandiosa resumed sailing a couple of weeks ago. Granted, there were about 3,000 passengers onboard...but that is due to the ship limiting passengers for easier 'social distancing'.

 

There is a seemingly endless hunger for cruising; it is evidenced daily on these boards. Any number of people would jump back on a ship tomorrow if they were sailing from the US, without care or concern about COVID infection. 

 

As long as the cruise lines can weather the current 'drought', I have little doubt that we will see mega-ships sailing as soon as they get the all-clear.  And as bigger ships tend to have a certain number of cost efficiencies associated, I am guessing that sailing with fewer passengers will pose them fewer problems than for some of the smaller/luxury ships.

 

 

Nobody missed the MSC news. But, that's a single ship (with almost zero competition at the time it cruised) in a potential "sea" of big ships that, in total once operational, will not be able to max out even the reduced passenger loads required by authorities.

Without getting into the details, you are quite wrong about the finer points of cost efficiency associated with ship size. Economy of scale is never one size fits all when there are so many variables at play.

In any case, it is the small lines with small ships serving folks who still have disposable income that will emerge "in the black." 

[SelectSys]

7 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

You're asking for a comparison with underlying unfairness. Just the odds of virus transmission on large vs small cruise ship with vastly different passenger loads will skew the data.

 

I was really thinking about after the pandemic is largely over and we are coming out the other side.  I don't anything about the cruise business is necessarily any more or less fair than any other enterprise.  The lines just have a tougher problem than most other businesses to solve and it's going to take more time to see a brighter future.

 

5 hours ago, Cruzaholic41 said:

...

Seniors and those who are highest risk are the last who should be eager to get back on cruise ships.  
 

Considering how many small ships have been either sold off or beached for scrap, the evidence is proving the largest, newest ships of the big parent cruise lines are the safest. 

 

I agree with both your points.  Seniors will be somewhat more reluctant to return to cruising and the larger ships may provide additional flexibility in terms of managing reduced capacities.

 

4 hours ago, getting older slowly said:

...

Financials.... can Companies run at Reduced numbers and make enough profit.... and adding to this will prices go up to get get much needed capital .....

 

So which cruise line to do best.....?????   

the ones with the least debt and overheads..... 

the rest are starting behind the eight ball.... with almost a year of lost income....

Also the other thing is greed ... as they are all after the dollar....

and are public companies which are there for the stock holders.......

 

That is about it     cheers Don

 

 

This is really key.  Which companies truly have the financial staying power to see this through.   With cruise lines being starved of cash, deep pockets and the access to capital is key.  Patience to see it through is another factor.  All of these things - including a lack of public shareholders - is why I think MSC has a leg up going forward.

 

I am not sure I get the greed point.  All organizations and individuals are largely self-interested.  

 

59 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

...

As long as the cruise lines can weather the current 'drought', I have little doubt that we will see mega-ships sailing as soon as they get the all-clear.  And as bigger ships tend to have a certain number of cost efficiencies associated, I am guessing that sailing with fewer passengers will pose them fewer problems than for some of the smaller/luxury ships.

 

Yes, I also believe the mega-ships will not go away.

[Aquahound]

7 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

FWIW, this may just be a moot exercise since I am convinced that the combination of public health maintenance and economic reality will find the largest ships quickly disappearing due to an ongoing inability to meet their minimally necessary passenger load.

 

I can't really say that I'm surprised but you seem to be letting your love of small ships and love for a particular line cloud better judgment.  The truth is, none of us know how this is all going to play out.  However, what I'm seeing right now supports the notion that large mass market ships have the largest safety net.  Mega ship new builds are not being canceled, yet cruise lines are liquidating their small ships like Maasdam, etc.  Sherlock would call that a clue.   

[Flatbush Flyer]

2 minutes ago, Aquahound said:

 

I can't really say that I'm surprised but you seem to be letting your love of small ships and love for a particular line cloud better judgment.  The truth is, none of us know how this is all going to play out.  However, what I'm seeing right now supports the notion that large mass market ships have the largest safety net.  Mega ship new builds are not being canceled, yet cruise lines are liquidating their small ships like Maasdam, etc.  Sherlock would call that a clue.   

My predictions have nothing to do with my preference for small ships.

While mass market lines may be stuck with their orders for more monster ships, the premium/luxury lines are building much smaller ones (e.g., Oceania's two <1200 passenger Allura class ships or several other lines' expedition sized ships).

The bottom line will be who can fill their ships' reduced capacity loads with folks that still have the money to buy a cabin.

And, whether we like the ship size or not, the smaller lines with smaller ships catering to folks who will still have disposable cash are the ones that will survive intact.

[Aquahound]

5 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

And, whether we like the ship size or not, the smaller lines with smaller ships catering to folks who will still have disposable cash are the ones that will survive intact.

 

You forgot to add "in my opinion."

[sverigecruiser]

7 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

So why take that chance when you can cruise on ships where the risk is even less by having greater food safety restriction (even before Covid)?

 

If greater food safety restrictions mean no self serve buffets the buffet is of no interest for me. That is no problem for me because I use the buffet very little and can just choose another restaurant.