Which Cruise Lines will do the best in the new normal?

[getting older slowly]

1 hour ago, SelectSys said:

 

I am not sure I get the greed point.  All organizations and individuals are largely self-interested.  

 

An example.... I work at the same company for a very long time... which changed ownership 3 times

 

one   used the company to make enough profit to reinvest, improve and R&D

two  used the company as a cash cow  no reinvest no improvement and little R&D

three used the company to enlarge their company but had no idea about the type of business they bought

 

Number One the company was profitable and had 65% of the market share

 Number Two  milked the company dry and at the end before selling it had 24% of the market

 

the point is that the greed of number Two ended a good company.

[Flatbush Flyer]

50 minutes ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

If greater food safety restrictions mean no self serve buffets the buffet is of no interest for me. That is no problem for me because I use the buffet very little and can just choose another restaurant. 

Not all casual cruise line dining venues are what I think you envision. Folks may call them all buffets. But there are vast differences between and among lines.

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 hour ago, Aquahound said:

 

You forgot to add "in my opinion."

Not an opinion- rather, just common sense Econ. 101: Supply and Demand.

[Cruzaholic41]

1 hour ago, Aquahound said:

 

You forgot to add "in my opinion."

Ha!  Don’t you know the egocentric don’t have opinions. 😂🙄

[Flatbush Flyer]

20 minutes ago, Cruzaholic41 said:

Ha!  Don’t you know the egocentric don’t have opinions. 😂🙄

Please try to stay on the actual topic or there will be "no soup for you."

[sverigecruiser]

43 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Not all casual cruise line dining venues are what I think you envision. Folks may call them all buffets. But there are vast differences between and among lines.

 

I'm talking about the buffets and not all casual dining venues. For me the buffets are only interesting if I pick my own food so if it's staff served I won't go there. I probably eat one or maybe two meals at the buffet on a cruise so if that option isn't available it's no big deal for me.

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, sverigecruiser said:

 

I'm talking about the buffets and not all casual dining venues. For me the buffets are only interesting if I pick my own food so if it's staff served I won't go there. I probably eat one or maybe two meals at the buffet on a cruise so if that option isn't available it's no big deal for me.

On our last HAL cruise the buffet was staff served, but you still picked your own food. There was really no difference. (Well actually my DW's salads had the same ingredients, but more of them.)

 

Some would now call it a cafeteria, but in their dailies when it gave the times various eating places were open, it was still called a buffet. And as far as I know no one called it the cafeteria despite the insistence of some on these boards that there will no longer be buffets, only cafeterias.

[Roz]

@Flatbush Flyer, you mention "disposable income" in connection with small ships, implying that the only people with disposable income to travel now are those who can afford the much higher fares on lines such as Regent, Oceania, Silversea, etc.

 

I'm middle income and haven't missed one day of pay due to Covid-19.  There are lots of us out here, the only difference being we work at home now instead of in an office.  

 

I don't sail "mega" ships.  Last cruises were on the Carnival Miracle and HAL's Nieuw Amsterdam.  

 

When we come of out of this Covid thing, there's going to be a demand for air travel, hotel stays, cruises, etc.  Some companies may no longer exist or will have been bought out by others, but who fills the mid to mega sized cruise ships are the middle class.  

[sverigecruiser]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

On our last HAL cruise the buffet was staff served, but you still picked your own food. There was really no difference. (Well actually my DW's salads had the same ingredients, but more of them.)

 

Some would now call it a cafeteria, but in their dailies when it gave the times various eating places were open, it was still called a buffet. And as far as I know no one called it the cafeteria despite the insistence of some on these boards that there will no longer be buffets, only cafeterias.

 

For me a buffet is only interesting if I pick and take my own food. If I want someone to serve me I prefer other restaurants.

 

It can still be a buffet if staff are serving everything but I'm not interested in eating there if someone shall serve me.

Edited September 1, 2020 by sverigecruiser

[nosapphire]

Until we know what "normal" is going to be, the question is unanswerable.

For what it is worth, I suspect for mainstream cruising (i.e, not the small luxury yacht types) the bigger ships may fare better if enhanced spacing has to be continued.

They have more restaurants, more assorted seating areas, and my belief is that they can reduce passenger numbers while still making a profit much more easily than the smaller ships.

 

[Essiesmom]

I think we are ignoring the most obvious variable:  the passengers.  The cruise lines that will succeed regardless of size are those whose passengers understand the restrictions in place, and abide by them regardless of the inconvenience.  The second variable is enforcement.  The cruise line has to be willing to apply the consequences of violating the restrictions, as MSC did.  Undoubtedly there will some very unhappy campers on early cruises, but once things/people fall into line, cruising will be safe, and perhaps more enjoyable for all of us.  

 

Excursions are going to be the problem, as it was on the first MSC cruise.  Especially in the Caribbean, many people/families just want to go to the beach.  Is the cruise line going to be able to offer that, and manage the mingling/social distancing bubble?  In the Caribbean, we don't do excursions.  We get off the ship to wander around, shop, and have a snack.  EM

[Hlitner]

To answer the topic's main question we think the smaller ship luxury lines will do best in the near future.  Their ships are much more spacious and can more easily accommodate social distancing.   As to buffets, at the risk of starting some controversy, where is the science that shows buffets to a risk with COVID!  Yes, I know there is lots of theory but the same folks who tell us to "follow the science" have absolutely none to trash properly run buffets.

 

A few weeks ago we spent a week in Myrtle Beach and one evening went Rioz which is a personal favorite churrasca type restaurant.  Rioz is huge (with tables for several hundred) and has a very expansive buffet along with the usual tableside churrasca service.   The way they ran their buffet area made me feel safer then tableside service in most restaurants.  When we walked up to the buffet we had to wear masks and were handed disposable gloves which had to be worn in the buffet area.  AFter we had served ourselves at the buffet (a very comprehensive salad bar) we returned to our table where servers immediately took our gloves which were tossed in the trash.    As to cruise ships, even before COVID there were quite a few cruise lines that had modified their buffets to incorporate more staff serving and pre-plated items.  On lines like HAL they had already eliminated most of the common sharing of serving utensils.  This had nothing to do with COVID (which did not exist) but was primarily an attempt to better minimize the risk of Norovirus on other bacteria/viruses that could possibly be spread by sharing serving utensils.  

 

Getting back to the luxury lines, most have long had what I call modified buffets which made liberal use of staff servers.  On lines like Seabourn there was minimal buffet areas where there was any common use of utensils and that could easily be eliminated by simply pre-plating items in that particular location or using staff to handle the serving.

 

Hank

[nosapphire]

22 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

To answer the topic's main question we think the smaller ship luxury lines will do best in the near future.  Their ships are much more spacious and can more easily accommodate social distancing.   As to buffets, at the risk of starting some controversy, where is the science that shows buffets to a risk with COVID!  Yes, I know there is lots of theory but the same folks who tell us to "follow the science" have absolutely none to trash properly run buffets.

 

 

 

 

Hank

 

Not just properly run, properly designed.

Saga's new ship Spirit of Discovery has a buffet which was evidently intended to be all staff-served.

Saga opted to make it mainly self-service.

Every single passenger complained that when trying to reach the trays, they ended up with their nose hitting the glass over the buffet.

Just think - a whole queue of passengers all bumping their noses on the same spots....

 

 

 

 

 

[Flatbush Flyer]

4 hours ago, Roz said:

....I'm middle income and haven't missed one day of pay due to Covid-19.  There are lots of us out here, the only difference being we work at home now instead of in an office.  

And YOU are very fortunate to still have an income. Many many many many others in the WORKING middle class are not in the same position and it will be a very very very very long time before they can again afford even an inexpensive cruise.

 

The terrible news for average wage earners criss crosses all current media. For example, https://www.pewsocialtrends.org/2020/04/21/about-half-of-lower-income-americans-report-household-job-or-wage-loss-due-to-covid-19/

 

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2020/07/13/covid-19-job-and-income-loss-leading-to-more-hunger-and-financial-hardship/amp/

 

And yes, retirees (who make up a very large percentage of the premium/luxury segment demographic) are not without their own pandemic-related financial challenges. But I trust that enough of the regular travelers among them, whose pensions and savings (and even some investments) are remaining stable, will be able to return to cruising quickly - even with the inevitable higher fares necessitated by government mandated reductions in passenger loads as a Covid policy.

 

So, in the simplest supply/demand response to those posters who think mega ships will survive unscathed:

 

At a mandated 30% (for argument's sake) passenger reduction, a megaship might need 3500+ primarily middle class passengers paying eventually higher fares to break even while an R ship might need 450 primarily retired passengers (able to handle the higher fares) to "stay afloat."

 

We're not talking rocket science here.

Edited September 1, 2020 by Flatbush Flyer

[Hlitner]

30 minutes ago, nosapphire said:

 

Not just properly run, properly designed.

Saga's new ship Spirit of Discovery has a buffet which was evidently intended to be all staff-served.

Saga opted to make it mainly self-service.

Every single passenger complained that when trying to reach the trays, they ended up with their nose hitting the glass over the buffet.

Just think - a whole queue of passengers all bumping their noses on the same spots....

 

 

 

 

 

I wonder how many on Saga could see far enough to spot the glass :).  OK, only teasing.  But I was very serious when raising the issue about the safety of buffets vis-a-vis COVID.  For about 2 months I have posted that there does not seem to be any science (or even studies) tying COVID case spread to buffets.  Nobody has yet to post anything to the contrary.  Personally I am not a big buffet fan on cruise ships (DW and I prefer to be served) but do think that buffets are under attack by lots of folks (and politicians) without any evidence other then speculation.  I guess it is easy to attack buffets because they cannot fight back :).

 

For me the issue with buffets is more about common sense.  Sharing serving utensils is probably a bigger problem for Norovirus then COVID since Noro is much harder to kill and there is lots of science that shows it can easily be spread by contact.   COVID, on the other hand, seems to be more of an airborn problem (like most respiratory viruses) with surface contact issues still being researched.   While science has shown that COVID can live on some surfaces for varying periods of time they have not done a good job showing that transfer from surfaces is actually a major form of contagion.   The CDC has carefully hedged their bet: 

 

"Based on data from lab studies on COVID-19 and what we know about similar respiratory diseases, it may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads."  (CDC's web site).

 

When I try to research the surface spread of COVID there seems to a lack of scientific evidence that it happens.  Think back to the early days of COVID when many of us were encouraged to wipe down packages, mail, and other things.  DD would leave her Amazon packages outside for about 24 hours!   Now, you do not hear a lot about that kind of thing because the evidence does not seem to give a lot of support that surface spread is a high risk.  Just because a bug lives on a surface it does not necessarily mean that it is spread to humans from surface contact.

 

Hank

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hank

[Aquahound]

Hmmmm.  I guess Holland America should have consulted with Flatbush Flyer before dumping Amsterdam, Maasdam, Rotterdam, and Veendam....their 4 smallest ships....ships that probably carried a higher percentage of retirees than luxury lines. I guess their bean counters should have turned to the self appointed "experts" on Cruise Critic before they concluded there was more demand, therefore more profits in their newer mega ships.  🙄

[iancal]

Difficult to say.   I do not think that we know what the new normal  for cruise ships will be post covid 

 

This is one reason why we cannot even imagine booking a future cruise at the moment without knowing what the on board environment will be like, let alone what the port stop regimen will be.  

 

Which cruise lines will do the best?.  That seems to be a rear view mirror question.  We anticipate lots of changes in cruise line operations and marketing.  I suspect this pause will cause some lines to consolidate and perhaps re-examine their target market and their on board offerings.  I suspect it will be those cruise lines that have flexible, forward thinking management and have a history of responding quickly to changes in customer demands. 

 

The cruise lines that are always the last of the pack to move or adapt to changing demands may have a much larger hill to climb.  Just think about which cruise lines, for example, moved quickly to eliminate smoking from all cabins and public areas vs. those that did not.  

Edited September 1, 2020 by iancal

[Roz]

@Flatbush Flyer, I know I'm fortunate but there's no need to scream at me.  I'm part of the working middle class, and so are most if not all of my friends, family, and associates.  Just pointing out that depending on what part of the country you live in and the industry you work in, there are still those with the funds and desire to cruise on the mainstream lines with the larger ships.

[bonsai3s]

Everyone will do their best.

Regrettably, the virus doesn't discriminate.

Worse, it mutates.

 

Just an opinion: It will be with us for a long time.

[Flatbush Flyer]

31 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

...."Based on data from lab studies on COVID-19 and what we know about similar respiratory diseases, it may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads."  (CDC's web site)....

When it comes to geezers: better safe than sorry.

[Flatbush Flyer]

4 minutes ago, Roz said:

@Flatbush Flyer, I know I'm fortunate but there's no need to scream at me.  I'm part of the working middle class, and so are most if not all of my friends, family, and associates.  Just pointing out that depending on what part of the country you live in and the industry you work in, there are still those with the funds and desire to cruise on the mainstream lines with the larger ships.

My capitalized "YOU" was not screaming. Rather, it was meant as the collective "you" - those folks who still have income.

One only needs to follow some of the CC threads regarding cruise pricing to realize how many people already extend themselves financially to take a mass market Miami or Galveston short cruise. IMO, filling all those existing mass market ships (even at reduced capacity)  will not be possible.

[ontheweb]

58 minutes ago, Hlitner said:

I wonder how many on Saga could see far enough to spot the glass :).  OK, only teasing.  But I was very serious when raising the issue about the safety of buffets vis-a-vis COVID.  For about 2 months I have posted that there does not seem to be any science (or even studies) tying COVID case spread to buffets.  Nobody has yet to post anything to the contrary.  Personally I am not a big buffet fan on cruise ships (DW and I prefer to be served) but do think that buffets are under attack by lots of folks (and politicians) without any evidence other then speculation.  I guess it is easy to attack buffets because they cannot fight back :).

 

For me the issue with buffets is more about common sense.  Sharing serving utensils is probably a bigger problem for Norovirus then COVID since Noro is much harder to kill and there is lots of science that shows it can easily be spread by contact.   COVID, on the other hand, seems to be more of an airborn problem (like most respiratory viruses) with surface contact issues still being researched.   While science has shown that COVID can live on some surfaces for varying periods of time they have not done a good job showing that transfer from surfaces is actually a major form of contagion.   The CDC has carefully hedged their bet: 

 

"Based on data from lab studies on COVID-19 and what we know about similar respiratory diseases, it may be possible that a person can get COVID-19 by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it and then touching their own mouth, nose, or possibly their eyes, but this isn’t thought to be the main way the virus spreads."  (CDC's web site).

 

When I try to research the surface spread of COVID there seems to a lack of scientific evidence that it happens.  Think back to the early days of COVID when many of us were encouraged to wipe down packages, mail, and other things.  DD would leave her Amazon packages outside for about 24 hours!   Now, you do not hear a lot about that kind of thing because the evidence does not seem to give a lot of support that surface spread is a high risk.  Just because a bug lives on a surface it does not necessarily mean that it is spread to humans from surface contact.

 

Hank

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hank

Thank you. There has been so much misinformation about buffets. And the saddest part is it basically comes from those who are the first to say "follow the science".

[SelectSys]

11 hours ago, getting older slowly said:

...

one   used the company to make enough profit to reinvest, improve and R&D

two  used the company as a cash cow  no reinvest no improvement and little R&D

three used the company to enlarge their company but had no idea about the type of business they bought

...

the point is that the greed of number Two ended a good company.

 

Sad story.  Your experience is not alone in this regard.  I have seen your #2 as an intentional strategy from certain investor groups. I have seen it more in customers that were 2nd tier competitors in mature markets rather than from a market leader.

 

4 hours ago, nosapphire said:

Until we know what "normal" is going to be, the question is unanswerable.

For what it is worth, I suspect for mainstream cruising (i.e, not the small luxury yacht types) the bigger ships may fare better if enhanced spacing has to be continued.

 

Of course it's not truly an answerable question.  I was just curious what people's opinions are.

 

2 hours ago, Hlitner said:

To answer the topic's main question we think the smaller ship luxury lines will do best in the near future.  Their ships are much more spacious and can more easily accommodate social distancing...   

 

Getting back to the luxury lines, most have long had what I call modified buffets which made liberal use of staff servers.  On lines like Seabourn there was minimal buffet areas where there was any common use of utensils and that could easily be eliminated by simply pre-plating items in that particular location or using staff to handle the serving.

 

Hank

 

The passengers of these lines are the ones most likely to be able to afford increased pricing going forward.  The staffing model is set up for more service and if the occupancy can be sufficient for profitability I agree they could do well.

 

29 minutes ago, iancal said:

...  I suspect this pause will cause some lines to consolidate and perhaps re-examine their target market and their on board offerings.  I suspect it will be those cruise lines that have flexible, forward thinking management and have a history of responding quickly to changes in customer demands. 

 

The cruise lines that are always the last of the pack to move or adapt to changing demands may have a much larger hill to climb.  Just think about which cruise lines, for example, moved quickly to eliminate smoking from all cabins and public areas vs. those that did not.  

 

I think your comments regarding management is key.  Which management teams will provide the leadership to drive their companies forward.  I don't really know which management teams in the cruise industry are considered the best and have exhibited the characteristics you suggest.  I think those generic, corporate manager types won't do well to the extent they exist in the industry.  Navigating this change by any cruise line successfully is going to take really good leadership and execution. 

[navybankerteacher]

6 hours ago, Roz said:

@Flatbush Flyer, you mention "disposable income" in connection with small ships, implying that the only people with disposable income to travel now are those who can afford the much higher fares on lines such as Regent, Oceania, Silversea, etc.

 

I'm middle income and haven't missed one day of pay due to Covid-19.  There are lots of us out here, the only difference being we work at home now instead of in an office.  

 

I don't sail "mega" ships.  Last cruises were on the Carnival Miracle and HAL's Nieuw Amsterdam.  

 

When we come of out of this Covid thing, there's going to be a demand for air travel, hotel stays, cruises, etc.  Some companies may no longer exist or will have been bought out by others, but who fills the mid to mega sized cruise ships are the middle class.  

Back on topic - “Which cruise lines will do best in the new normal” :   the fact that the low fares made possible  by the introduction of mega-ships will no longer be as low as in the past —- a large part of their market is likely to be priced out, making other (non-cruise) vacation  activities more attractive options. 

 

The whole cruising market is likely likely to be smaller - with the obvious impact being heaviest on those lines which invested in mega-ships.  

[SelectSys]

53 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

The whole cruising market is likely likely to be smaller - with the obvious impact being heaviest on those lines which invested in mega-ships.  

 

I agree that the market will shrink for some time due to a variety of factors.  I think that those lines with good leadership, patience and "deep pockets" are best positioned to succeed.  I think the ship size issue could cut either way.  Only time will tell.

 

BTW - does anyone think that Virgin Cruises will be able to make it given they really entered full operations?

Edited September 1, 2020 by SelectSys